College Football Picks Week 7

Week 1: +1.82 units

Week 2: +9.9 units

Week 3: +5.37 units

Week 4: +12.84 units

Week 5: +5.54 units

Week 6: +0.14 units

Last week was my worst of the season, but I still finished barely in the black. The FAU game got postponed, but I did get a nice bet in on UTSA +35 who covered with ease. Texas State was my other multi-unit bet, but they were blown out of the water by Troy.

Western Kentucky @ UAB (Saturday, 12:30 PM Central)

Western Kentucky has not had a great season so far, with their only win coming over a bad Middle Tennessee team. Still, I think there’s at least a dozen FBS teams playing who are worse than them. I don’t think the market has caught up with the fact that UAB’s defense is not as strong as it was last year, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown.

Western Kentucky +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky ML +370 (0.5 units)

LSU @ Florida (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

LSU presents a weird edge case for my model, as they finished last year as one of the best teams of the decade but return very little talent from that team. It’s not uncommon for the best teams to lose a lot of players to the draft, but it’s rare for it to happen to the degree that it has to LSU. Still, this line seems like a big overreaction to their first two games. This game is going to be a shootout, but Florida’s defense is suspect enough that I like LSU to cover.

LSU +13 -110 (2 units)
LSU ML +340 (0.5 units)

Army @ UTSA (Saturday, 12:30 PM Central)

I was bullish about UTSA in the preseason and they’ve surpassed my high expectations I had for them. I’ve bet them twice already this season and am going to continue to do so here. Army’s offense has looked pretty ugly this year, and I’m not confident they can do much against a UTSA defense that held BYU in check last week.

UTSA +7 -110 (1 unit)

LSU ML, Western Kentucky ML, UTSA ML +6104 (0.1 units)