College Football Picks Week 5

Week 1: +1.82 units

Week 2: +9.9 units

Week 3: +5.37 units

Week 4: +12.84 units

Last week was once again very solid. The highlight was hitting Kansas State ML at +1566, the Wildcats came on strong in the second half to pull up the biggest upset of the season thus far. Texas State ML nearly hit as well, the Bobcats fell apart at the end of the game. Of my spread bets, only LSU failed to cover.

UTSA @ UAB

UTSA is 3-0, although they’ve certainly been quite lucky to get there with two very close wins. UAB has been solid thus far, although I think people are overrating them for keeping it close with Miami in Week 2. The Blazers are certainly the better team and have a stout defense, but a line close to three touchdowns is aggressive.

UTSA +20 -110 (3 units)

UTSA ML +900 (0.5 units)

Louisiana Tech @ BYU

There’s no doubt that BYU has been one of the surprises of the season thus far, as they’ve hammered Navy and Troy in their first two games. However, I think Louisiana Tech is better than both of those teams. I think people are overreacting to BYU’s performance this year, I would’ve had this at -6.5 in the preseason and we simply don’t have enough data to move this line 17 points.

Louisiana Tech +24 -110 (2 units)

Louisiana Tech ML +1500 (0.5 units)

Tulsa @ UCF

I liked Tulsa two weeks ago when they nearly knocked off Oklahoma State, and I think they have another solid shot at an upset here. UCF has outperformed my high expectations for them so far this year, but I think people are chalking up the Tulsa/OK State game to the Cowboys’ injuries and not the strength of the Golden Hurricane.

Tulsa +21 -110 (2 units)
Tulsa ML +850 (0.5 units)

Navy @ Air Force

This is a weird game, as Air Force currently only has two games firmly on the schedule while Navy has a full season planned. Air Force was sneaky good last year, finishing at the edge of the top 25 in my ratings. The Falcons have a lot of new faces as is expected for a service academy, but they return enough that I think they should be a more clear favorite here.

Air Force -2 +132 (2 units)

Baylor @ West Virginia

Both of these teams have played roughly in line with expectations so far this season. Baylor thrashed Kansas, while West Virginia beat EKU and lost to Oklahoma State. I liked Baylor a lot in the preseason and I don’t think everyone has adjusted to how good the Bears are. With the top of the Big 12 looking extremely murky, I think there is a strong chance they can make the Big 12 title game again this year.

Baylor -3 -110 (1 unit)

Auburn @ Georgia

This is one of our first top 10 matchups of the season, and arguably features the top two defenses in the country. Georgia was extremely flat against a horrid Arkansas team last week, and my system remains unconvinced that their offense is capable of much here. Auburn’s front seven is extremely scary, and I like the Tigers to cover in a low scoring affair.

Auburn +6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn ML +200 (0.5 units)

UTSA, Louisiana Tech ML Parlay +15900 (0.1 units)

UTSA, Tulsa ML Parlay +9400 (0.1 units)

Louisiana Tech, Tulsa ML Parlay +15100 (0.1 units)

UTSA, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa ML Parlay +151900 (0.1 units)