College Football Picks Week 4
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Two of my four picks last week got cancelled due to COVID, but the other 2 (Tulsa and Syracuse) both hit. Tulsa ML looked very juicy for a while before a late run by Oklahoma State put them over the top. I was going to have one more pick this week (FAU -3), but that game was cancelled today as USF has too many players out with COVID.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Kansas State laid a big egg in their only game this year, losing at home to Arkansas State. However, I don’t think people realize how strong of a team Arkansas State is- the Wildcats did not lose to a complete nobody. I think Oklahoma is quite overvalued- they return only 33% of their offensive yardage from a team that was borderline top 10 last year, In this matchup last year, I had Kansas State +23.5 and they won outright, I like K-State again here. The only reason this isn’t a bigger pick is due to uncertainty surrounding player availability for K-State.
Kansas State +28 -110 (4 units)
Kansas State ML +1566 (0.5 units)
Mississippi State @ LSU
The defending national champs have new faces at pretty much every position, and rank among the least experienced teams in the nation. Normally my model loves betting against inexperienced teams early on, but not here as I think people have overreacted to how much LSU has lost. There’s still enough pieces on this LSU roster that they should make quick work of a Mississippi State team breaking in a new scheme under Mike Leach.
LSU -16.5 -115 (3 units)
Texas State @ Boston College
Texas State is the rare team that has played 3 games in 3 weeks so far, and the early results are encouraging. The Bobcats have been a complete doormat since moving to FBS a few years ago, but handled ULM and was competitive against SMU and UTSA. Boston College got a nice win over Duke last week, but my system is still not convinced their offense is capable of covering a 17.5 point spread here.
Texas State +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas State ML +560 (0.5 units)
NC State @ Virginia Tech
NC State won a shootout against Wake Forest last week, but are still in the bottom tier of the ACC. Virginia Tech is yet to play this year, but I’m quite bullish on the Hokies as they are lead by an extremely experienced offensive line (115 starts returning). I think VT is the 4th best team in the league behind Clemson, Notre Dame and UNC, they should handle NC State with ease.
Virginia Tech -6.5 -115 (2 units)
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
This is going to be my third week in a row betting on Syracuse. It’s clear that their offense is inept, but their defense is solid. Georgia Tech has risen too much in the public perception for beating Florida State- the fact of the matter is that it’s not that the Yellow Jackets are any good, it’s just that the Seminoles are thoroughly mediocre. I like the Orange for a small play here.
Syracuse +8 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas @ Baylor
I believe this is the fourth or fifth time I have bet against Kansas in the last two years, and I think all of those bets have hit. My system just does not see the Jayhawks operating on the same planet as anyone else in the Big 12. Baylor is my sneaky pick to do well in the Big 12 this year- they’re not as depleted from last year’s team as some may think, especially up front. The Bears are worth a unit here.
Baylor -17.5 -110 (1 unit)