College Football Picks Week 4

Win Totals: 0 units

Week 0: -2.5 units

Week 1: +10.4 units

Week 2: -14.74 units

Week 3: -18.27 units

Season Total: -25.11 units

Another horrible week. At this point it would be a minor miracle to get back to flat on the season especially as the unit count goes down over the course of the season.

Iowa State @ Baylor (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

My model is a lot higher on Iowa State than the consensus. Their game at Iowa was very fluky, their defense actually held up quite well but the game was undone by four turnovers in their own territory including a fumble returned for a touchdown. The Cyclones’ underlying metrics are strong and I fancy them for a trip to the Big 12 title game. Baylor has played no one of note so far this year, we have yet to learn much about them.

Iowa State -7 -110 (3 units)

Missouri @ Boston College (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)

I was absolutely gobsmacked when I saw this line. Boston College is a solid team with a good quarterback in Phil Jurkovec. They have yet to be challenged this season but both sides of the ball have impressed me and they are up to the mid-40s in my ratings. Missouri is not very good and struggled to get past Central Michigan in week 1, as a whole I am just very down on the SEC East. BC is a better team and should be a small favorite here.

Boston College +1.5 -110 (3 units)

North Texas @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)

North Texas has had a slow start to the season on paper, but it’s not as bad as it seems as they were quite competitive with SMU before the game got away from them late. Louisiana Tech is being propped up by a close loss at Mississippi State in week 1 that was pretty fluky, they struggled to get past a very average Southeast Louisiana team in week 2. I like the Mean Green and the points.

North Texas +11 -110 (2 units)

North Texas ML +340 (0.5 units)

Rutgers @ Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I’ve been betting against Michigan all season and will continue to do so here. This bet is more pro-Rutgers than anti-Michigan, I have been quite impressed with the Scarlet Knights so far this year and think they will probably end up going to their first bowl games since 2014 this year. Rutgers’ defense has been solid and is around the Big Ten median. Michigan still needs to show me more in the passing game before I am buying them as a top 10 or 15 team.
Rutgers +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Rutgers ML +800 (0.5 units)

UCLA @ Stanford (Saturday, 5:00 PM Central)
UCLA was getting a lot of hype early in the season, but the wind came out of their sails after they lost at home to Fresno State last week. The Bruins had 81% postgame win expectancy in that loss so I am not reading too much into it. Stanford does not have the kind of athletes UCLA does, I think their win over USC was more USC self-destructing than Stanford showing much. UCLA should be at least a touchdown favorite here.

UCLA -4.5 -110 (2 units)

California @ Washington (Saturday, 8:30 PM Central)

I am extremely bullish on Cal compared to everyone else. They are 1-2 with two losses to unranked teams so they are not getting discussed at all. However, their EPA/play was higher than their opponents’ in both the Nevada and TCU losses, and both those teams are easily in the top 50. I am not sold on Washington’s offense even after an impressive performance against Arkansas State last week.

California +7.5 -110 (1 unit)

North Texas ML/Rutgers ML +3580 (0.1 units)