College Football Picks Week 3
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Season Total: -6.84 units
Last week was a complete disaster, there’s no other way to spin it. BYU and Air Force covered which saved me from a total wipeout. Some of the losses (Army, East Carolina) were close. Others (Buffalo, Georgia State) were not. On to the next week.
Northwestern @ Duke (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)
This is the third matchup in as many weeks between a team I bet the over on in the preseason and a team I bet the under on. Thus, it should be no surprise that I like Northwestern here. Duke lost to Charlotte as a six point favorite in week one and came out of the gate pretty slow against NC A&T last week before winning comfortably. Northwestern is very inexperienced and not as good as I thought they’d be, but their roster is infinitely more talented than the smoking crater that is Duke’s roster.
Northwestern -3 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan @ LSU (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I was on Central Michigan as a 14 point dog at Missouri in week one, they outgained the Tigers and had a legitimate shot to win outright. The Chippewas remain underrated and are now my pick to win the MAC. LSU’s defense was horrendous last year and looked just as bad when UCLA threw for 260 yards on only 16 attempts in week 1. Jim McElwain has brought a lot of legitimate Power Five talent to CMU’s roster and they are capable of giving LSU a game.
Central Michigan +19.5 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan ML +800 (1 unit)
Florida International @ Texas Tech (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
I was absolutely floored when I saw this line. Texas Tech is horrible- they needed a goal line stand last weekend to beat Stephen F. Austin as a 31 point home favorite. SFA is not even a good FCS team- they have not made the FCS playoffs since 2014. Florida International is around the 20th worst team in FBS, they’re not good but they at least have a pulse. Few coaching seats in the Power Five are as hot as Matt Wells’ is at Texas Tech right now, and with how poor their offense is you can count on two hands the number of FBS teams they should be 20 point favorites over.
Florida International +20 -110 (3 units)
Florida International ML +850 (1 unit)
Tulane @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 7:00 PM Central)
This figures to be an absolutely brilliant game of football, it has one of the highest totals of the weekend at 76. Both these teams are going to light up the scoreboard all year- we saw this in week 1 when Tulane gave Oklahoma a real run for their money as a 31 point dog. My model thinks the Green Wave had an actual chance to win that game and rates Tulane as an AAC championship contender. Ole Miss is a borderline top 25 team but I think Tulane can keep up in what will surely be a track meet.
Tulane +14 -110 (2 units)
Tulane ML +450 (1 unit)
Northern Illinois @ Michigan (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
I have been low on Michigan all year and still have them lower than pretty much any other model. My system does not really know how to evaluate the Wolverines, starting quarterback Cade McNamara has attempted only 26 passes through two games. Northern Illinois was a dumpster fire last year but has really impressed me in both games so far in 2021. They pulled one of the biggest upsets of the year at Georgia Tech in week one and went toe to toe with a Wyoming team I love in week two. Michigan will win outright but NIU can keep it within a few scores.
Northern Illinois +27.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)
Arkansas is coming off their biggest win in five years and is now ranked in the AP Poll. The Razorbacks are better than I thought they’d be, but I’m pumping the breaks on calling them a top 25 team. Georgia Southern is not up to their usual standard this year and a poor season could lead to some calls for Chad Lunsford’s head. Still, I think this line should be a bit south of twenty and there are few harder teams in FBS to prep for than GSU given their unique flexbone offense.
Georgia Southern +23.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Southern ML +1100 (0.5 units)
Tulsa @ Ohio State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Tulsa has had a weird season with a fluke loss to FCS power UC Davis (postgame win expectancy 96%) and a close loss to Oklahoma State. They got really unlucky to lose the Davis game and I think it has made people too bearish on them. Ohio State’s defense has been thoroughly exposed so far this season and even a weaker Tulsa offense can poke some holes in them.
Tulsa +24.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML +4660 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Florida International ML +7550 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Georgia Southern ML +10100 (0.1 units)
Tulane ML/Florida International ML +4940 (0.1 units)
Tulane ML/Georgia Southern ML +6620 (0.1 units)
Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +10700 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML/Florida International ML +42740 (0.02 units)
Central Michigan ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +57020 (0.02 units)
Tulane ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +60380 (0.02 units)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +513980 (0.02 units)