College Football Picks Week 2

Win Totals: 0 units

Week 0: -2.5 units

Week 1: +10.4 units

Season Total: +7.9 units

I’m pretty pleased with how week 1 went, I bet 37.6 units and finished up 10.4 units. Encouragingly, I had numerous picks that were slam dunk winners (Marshall -2.5, Tulane +31.5, Fresno State +20.5) and only one pick that missed by a lot (Western Michigan +17). I do think I got a little unlucky with Rice +19.5, they were winning in the mid third quarter and then Arkansas piled it on late to cover.

I’d be very surprised if there’s another week this year where I bet as many units as I did last week, over the course of the season everyone’s pricing converges to each other and the opportunities lessen. Like last week, a lot of my picks this week are going to be betting on underdogs from the G5 conferences on the road against power conference foes. You also might notice in the next few weeks that my model is often more “sticky” than the consensus— I tend to hold onto my priors early in the season more strongly than most.

South Carolina @ East Carolina (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)

I’ve had this game circled on my calendar since August as one I knew I wanted to bet. I bet South Carolina under 3.5 wins and East Carolina over 5 wins in the preseason so it should be obvious which side I like here. South Carolina is one of the worst teams in the Power Five— they return very little from a horrendous 2020 squad and their quarterback came to Columbia as a graduate assistant, only to be moved onto the playing field. ECU did have a tough time with Appalachian State last week but the Mountaineers are a fringe top 25 team. I’m not getting the best price here as this opened South Carolina -2.5 but I still like the Pirates for a sizable play.

East Carolina -2 -110 (4 units)

Buffalo @ Nebraska (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I am a lot higher on Buffalo than pretty much everyone else right now. They lost the best coach in program history in the spring when Lance Leipold took the Kansas job and it seems everyone wrote them off. I find that people overrate these kinds of events, some players left with him, but the defense is quite solid and the Bulls were roughly the 30th best team in the sport last year. Nebraska got a bit unlucky to lose the opener to Illinois but was shaky early against Fordham and is no more than the 70th best team in the country. Buffalo has a decent shot to win this game outright.

Buffalo +13.5 -110 (3 units)

Buffalo ML +425 (1 unit)

Utah @ BYU (Saturday, 9:15 PM Central)

I don’t think college football fans outside the west understand how big a deal this rivalry is, these teams absolutely hate each other and this game is often a proxy for religious vs. secular society in Utah. I am going to be betting on BYU early and often this year, they were top 10 quality last year and will certainly be worse without Zach Wilson but are still a top 40 team. Utah is appearing in the last few spots of a lot of top 25 ballots, but I think that is a more appropriate place for BYU, not the Utes.

BYU +7 -110 (3 units)

BYU ML +230 (1 unit)

Western Kentucky @ Army (Saturday, 10:30 AM Central)

Most of the time when I’m betting on a game, I have some idea that it’ll be a game I’m interested in before I look at the lines. That is not the case here- I was pretty shocked to see this 6.5, I expected it to be in the double digits for sure. WKU is one of the least experienced teams in the G5 and is about the 20th worst team in FBS. Army was one of the biggest surprises of week 1, demolishing Georgia State as an underdog. WKU’s rush defense is horrendous and Army’s flexbone attack is going to run all over them this week.

Army -6.5 -110 (2 units) 

Ball State @ Penn State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Ball State is a really hard team to price this year. They were arguably the biggest surprise of the 2020 season, coming out of nowhere to win the MAC and finished ranked for the first time in program history. They rate a solid 85% in my returning experience metric, although they looked awful last week against a bad Western Illinois team. Penn State did not look great themselves against Wisconsin and pulled off one of the most improbable wins of the weekend (post game win expectancy of 12%). I am not a believer in Penn State after the ugliest “good” win I’ve seen in a while and like Ball State and the points here.

Ball State +22 -110 (2 units)

Ball State ML +950 (0.5 units)

Georgia State @ North Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

Both of these teams were big disappointments last week, Georgia State got waxed by Army while North Carolina lost their slim playoff hopes with a loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. I did put a unit on Georgia State over 5 wins in the preseason and think they’re a top half team in the Sun Belt. North Carolina has a great QB in Sam Howell but the O-Line looks atrocious and they are replacing a ton of skill talent that went off to the NFL. I don’t think they have the firepower to blow out Georgia State.

Georgia State +25.5 -110 (2 units)

Georgia State ML +1200 (0.5 units)

UAB @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

No team did more for their playoff case in week 1 than Georgia, stifling the Clemson offense in one of the best defensive performances I’ve ever seen. UAB is also a very defense-heavy team though, boasting one of the twenty best defenses in the country. I don’t think the Blazers have much of a shot to win outright, but this figures to be a complete rockfight (the total is in the high 40s) and I struggle to see Georgia really blowing them out of the water.
UAB +26.5 -110 (2 units)

Houston @ Rice (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)

This is another battle between a team I bet the over on in the preseason and a team I bet the under on. I feel pretty good about both bets after week 1- Houston jumped out to an early lead against Texas Tech and then competely fell apart, losing by 17 at home. Rice unfortunately failed to cover against Arkansas, but was competitve for three quarters as a 19 point underdog. I think that the Owls have a decent shot to win this outright.

Rice +8 -110 (2 units)

Rice ML +280 (1 unit)

Air Force @ Navy (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Like BYU/Utah, most people do not realize how intense this rivalry is. The Army/Navy rivalry is well-documented, but this matchup seems to be much less cordial than that one. One common theme you’ll see in my bets in the next few weeks is that I hate the bottom few teams of the AAC- I bet against Navy and Temple last week and think the trio of Navy/Temple/USF are miles worse than the rest of the conference. Air Force should roll here.

Air Force -6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Buffalo ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)

Buffalo ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)

BYU ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)

BYU ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)

Rice ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)
Rice ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)

Buffalo ML/BYU ML/Rice ML (0.1 units)