College Football Picks Week 1

The season starts in earnest this week with nearly every FBS team in action. Week 1 is always the most active week of the year for my picks as there’s plenty of discrepancies between my model and the rest of the market to iron out. 

Win Totals: 0 units

Week 0: -2.5 units

Season Total: -2.5 units

I’m betting on more underdogs than favorites this week and likely will be for the next month or so. As I discussed a few weeks ago in my preseason picks, college football teams are incredibly experienced this year and the experience is not distributed evenly across the sport. Teams from smaller conferences are overall much more likely to be returning large sections of last year’s roster than power conference teams. The gap between the top few teams and everyone else is still very large, but the gap between say, team number 25 and team number 75 is a decent bit smaller than it is most years.

Duke @ Charlotte (Friday 6:00 PM Central)

Duke under 3.5 wins was one of my favorite bets in the preseason so it should be no surprise which side I like here. The Blue Devils were one of the worst teams in the Power Five at 2-9 and rank at the bottom of the ACC in returning experience. Meanwhile, Charlotte has put together their two best years in their short history in the last two seasons. Their recruiting rankings are higher than you’d expect for a program of their caliber, and there are some legitimately talented skill position players on the roster. Duke did win this matchup in a blowout last year, but that was by far their best game of the season. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched and think the 49ers have a good shot at winning outright.

Charlotte +6.5 -110 (4 units)

Charlotte ML +200 (2 units)

Rice @ Arkansas (Saturday 1:00 PM Central)

This is one of a few games this year featuring a team whom I bet the over on preseason against a team I bet the under on, I believe South Carolina/East Carolina next week is the only other such game on the schedule. Arkansas’ 3-7 record last year was a lot of smoke and mirrors, they were outgained in two of their three wins. The Razorbacks also have a messy situation at quarterback with no experience on the roster and no obvious starter. Rice is solid on both sides of the ball and is capable of giving Arkansas a game.

Rice +19.5 -110 (4 units)
Rice ML +800 (1 unit)

Marshall @ Navy (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)

This is an interesting matchup where the team from the worse conference is a road favorite against the team from a better conference, it is these two teams’ first ever meeting. Marshall is in a weird spot with coach Doc Holladay getting fired after winning CUSA Coach of the Year last year in his 11th season with the team. He managed to retain most of the roster though, so I am not concerned. Navy is very inexperienced, which is pretty typical for a service academy. Most notably they return only 19 starts on the offensive line, a major issue for a team that runs the ball at least 80% of the time. I like the Thundering Herd here.

Marshall -2.5 -110 (4 units)

Arizona vs. BYU (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)

BYU posted their best season in thirty years last year, finishing just inside the top ten of my ratings and sending QB Zach Wilson off to the NFL. Obviously I expect a lot of regression from the Cougars, but I still think they are one of the more underpriced teams in the sport. Arizona is a complete mess and rivals fellow basketball schools Kansas and Duke for being the worst team in a major conference. They went 0-5 last year, did not come close to covering any of their last four games and dropped the finale to rival Arizona State 70-7. They bring in a hodgepodge of transfer quarterbacks, none of whom inspire confidence. I think BYU wins this in a rout.

BYU -12.5 -110 (4 units)

Florida Atlantic @ Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

Florida Atlantic is one of the most experienced teams in FBS, returning almost every contributor of note from last year. They are also the most talented team in CUSA by a long distance, they have around a dozen former Power Five players on the roster, led by former Miami quarterback N’Kosi Perry. Florida’s offense is due for some severe regression with Kyle Trask, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts off to the NFL. It’s difficult for me to see this new UF offense putting up enough points to really blow FAU out of the water, I like the Owls and the points.

Florida Atlantic +23.5 -110 (3 units)

Florida Atlantic ML +1000 (0.5 units)

Central Michigan @ Missouri (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)

This is another example of an extremely experienced Group of Five team playing a less experienced Power Five team on the road. CMU returns all eleven starters on offense from last year’s team that was better than their 3-3 record indicated. My ratings hate the SEC East and rank all seven teams lower than most, that includes Missouri. The Tigers are alright but I struggle to see them as a top 50 team, which means they should not be two touchdown favorites against one of the best teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan +14.5 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan ML +500 (0.5 units)

Baylor @ Texas State (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)

Baylor is going to be one of the weaker teams in the Big 12 this year. They were better than last year’s 2-7 record indicates, but have a tumultuous QB situation to contend with. Texas State was a complete dumpster fire three years ago but Jake Spavital has turned the Bobcats around and they are now a respectable outfit that could go bowling this year. Once again, the gap between the bottom of the P5 and the middle of the G5 is smaller than most people think this year and I like Texas State.

Texas State +14 -110 (3 units)

Texas State ML +425 (0.5 units)

Tulane @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)

This game was moved from New Orleans to Norman because of Hurricane Ida. Oklahoma is a bonafide national championship contender who opens the season #3 in my rankings, behind just Alabama and Clemson. Tulane finished last year around 50th in my system and has some good players returning including a strong O-Line, which is important given their run-heavy offense. The Green Wave keep the ball on the ground enough that even the lightning-quick Sooners will have a tough time beating them by 30.

Tulane +31.5 -110 (2 units)

Fresno State @ Oregon (Saturday, 1:00 PM Central)

Fresno State absolutely demolished UConn last week, in a game they perhaps deserved to win by more than 45 points. That result probably says more about UConn (over 2 wins is not looking as nice as it did a few weeks ago) than it does about Fresno State, but the Bulldogs are still a clear contender in the Mountain West. I bet Oregon under in the preseason and think they’re much closer to the pack in the Pac-12 than people realize.

Fresno State +20.5 -110 (2 units)

Fresno State ML +850 (0.25 units)

Kent State @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:00 PM Central)

NFL draft geeks will be familiar with Kent State QB Dustin Crum who is a potential mid-round pick this coming April. The Golden Flashes are not afraid to throw the deep ball which makes them a high variance team capable of surprising a team or two this season. Texas A&M has to replace longtime starter Kellen Mond and has a few other holes to fill on offense as well.

Kent State +28.5 -110 (1 unit)

Western Michigan @ Michigan (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)

Michigan under was one of my favorite bets in the preseason, and I’ll likely be betting against the Wolverines somewhat often in September. I sound like a broken record now, but Western Michigan is an experienced squad that many have picked to win the MAC. I disagree (I think Ball State are favorites to repeat as conference champions) but the Broncos are too good to be getting 17 points in Ann Arbor.

Western Michigan +17 -110 (1 unit)

Temple @ Rutgers (Thursday, 5:30 PM Central)

I think people underestimate how bad the bottom of the AAC is. I am betting against Navy this week, and am betting against Temple as well. The Owls really struggled last year, going 1-6 and losing their last 5 by double digits. They do bring in Georgia transfer D’Wan Mathis at quarterback, but other than that this is probably the least talented roster in the AAC. Greg Schiano put together the best Rutgers squad in nearly a decade last year and all signs point to this year’s team being even better.

Rutgers -14.5 -110 (1 unit)

I am also going to be betting moneyline parlays this year of the moneyline underdogs I like. If you think individual moneylines have edge, it follows that the parlay should as well and it gives you a nice upside tail to root for on Saturdays. To keep the number of parlays manageable for this week (no one wants to spend 30 minutes betting a million different parlays), I have excluded Charlotte (their ML is not that steep) and Fresno State (the lowest unit pick). I am betting the other 6 combinations of 2 team ML parlays for 0.1 units each, listed below:

Florida Atlantic ML/Central Michigan ML +6500 (0.1 units)

Florida Atlantic ML/Rice ML +9500 (0.1 units)

Florida Atlantic ML/Texas State ML +6320 (0.1 units)

Central Michigan ML/Rice ML +4300 (0.1 units)

Central Michigan ML/Texas State ML +2842 (0.1 units)

Rice ML/Texas State ML +4180 (0.1 units)