College Football Picks Week 14 2024

My bet on San Jose State was a real stinker last week- SJSU QB Walker Eget was 4/22 in a loss to UNLV. You won’t see many quarterback stat lines as bad as that.

The good news is that most other things last week went my way. The biggest positive was Ole Miss losing to Florida- this cashed my Ole Miss under 9.5 wins ticket and makes my Ole Miss to miss Playoff ticket look very likely.

Loyal readers will remember that in addition to the picks below, I also have bets on Florida +11.5 and Iowa State PK that I got in the preseason. Iowa State is only a 2 point favorite, but the Florida line looks great as the Gators are two touchdown favorites at Florida State.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Week 12: +0.73 units

Week 13: -0.2 units

Preseason Bets: +21.06 units

Total: +19.3 units

Virginia @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

Virginia Tech has once again had a strange season where their record is much worse than their performance. They had a controversial loss to Miami, a confounding OT loss to Syracuse, and a turnover-laden loss to Rutgers. All of their wins have been by double digits- they’ve played more like an 8-3 team than a 5-6 team. Virginia, on the other hand, was completely uncompetitive against SMU last week. This is a huge rivalry game, and Blacksburg will be rocking for what should be a dominating Virginia Tech win.

Virginia Tech -7 -110 (3 units)

Georgia Tech @ Georgia (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)

I’ve been high on Georgia Tech all season- they’ve been in the 20s and 30s in my ratings when they’ve been in the 40s and 50s elsewhere. HC Brent Key has really raised the talent level on their roster- it’s now firmly in the top half of the ACC. Georgia has shown some vulnerability this season, and looked awful against UMass last week. I think Georgia Tech can keep this from being a blowout.

Georgia Tech +19.5 -110 (2 units)

Connecticut @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Longtime readers of my blog will know that these two teams are both near and dear to my heart. I’ve bet on both of them many times over the years, so it would be a shame to let a UMass/UConn game go by without placing a bet. I like UMass here- I was a little surprised to see them fire HC Don Brown as he’s done a decent job at the hardest gig in FBS. The talent level between these teams is comparable and while UConn has a much better record, that’s largely due to their luck in close games.

UMass +10 -110 (2 units)

Pittsburgh @ Boston College (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

Pitt started the season 7-0 and has since lost four straight to fall to 7-4. I think they’re likely to lose another here to a strong Boston College team. People asked some questions after Boston College brought in veteran HC Bill O’Brien in the offseason, but he’s done an excellent job in year one to get the Eagles to a bowl game. Boston College is firmly a top 50 team in my model, putting them in the top half of the ACC.

Boston College -3 -110 (2 units)

Duke @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Duke is the quietest 8-3 team in the country. They’ve lost to only good teams (SMU, at Miami and at Georgia Tech) and knocked off a few bowl teams in North Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State. It’s no surprise that a great coach like Manny Diaz could put together a winning squad, but even I didn’t expect these results in year one. On the other side, it’s a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is 4-7. The Demon Deacons are one of the worst teams in the Power Four and should be a bigger home underdog here.

Duke -4.5 -110 (1 unit)

Auburn @ Alabama (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Auburn has been hanging out in my model’s top 25 all season despite having a losing record. They’ve managed to find every possible way to lose a football game, most notably Payton Thorne’s backbreaking pick six against Oklahoma. The Tigers are clearly better than their record and have a top ten roster in the sport, as we saw last weekend against Texas A&M. Alabama has question marks on both sides of the ball and I don’t think they’ll run away with the Iron Bowl.

Auburn +12.5 -110 (1 unit)

New Mexico @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 10 PM Central)

Hawai’i has been great to me all season and I’m going to keep picking them here. HC Timmy Chang inherited the worst situation in FBS when he took over, and has turned the team from a doormat to a respectable Mountain West squad. Mainland teams often struggle travelling out to the islands, and New Mexico probably has a less talented roster than Hawai’i. 

Hawai’i +2.5 -110 (1 unit)

UNLV to miss Playoff -300 (6 units)

UNLV needs to win the Mountain West to make the Playoff, and also needs to stay in front of the winner of the American. To win the conference, UNLV must beat Nevada this week, and then win a conference title game at Boise State where they’re likely going to be a double digit underdog. There are also a few scenarios on the board where the AAC champion remains in front of UNLV, taking their spot in the playoff. I liked this bet a lot more before Tulane lost to Memphis, but I still think UNLV has a long hill to climb to make the Playoff.

Miami to make Playoff -200 (3 units)

Miami was the biggest beneficiary of last week’s chaos in the SEC. The Hurricanes have one easy path to the playoff- if they beat Syracuse, they’re in the ACC title game, and if they win that, they’ll be the 3 seed. More importantly, I think they stand a good chance of making the playoff with a loss- especially if it’s in the ACC title game. I give the Hurricanes around a three in four chance at making the field.  

Clemson to make Playoff +200 (3 units)

I was a Clemson hater for much of the season, but I have to admit that their chances of making the field are looking up. They’ve risen all the way to 12th in the committee’s rankings, and if they beat South Carolina, I think they’re more likely than not to make the field. I think that this is a reasonable price to buy back my short exposure to Clemson.

Alabama to win National Championship 40/1 (0.5 units)

Ole Miss to win National Championship 150/1 (0.5 units)

In 2017, Alabama lost the Iron Bowl to Auburn, and their season looked to be over. The Crimson Tide were 12/1 to win the National Championship, despite every computer ranking still thinking they were the best team in the country. You know how the story went from there- Wisconsin beat Ohio State to vault Alabama into the four team playoff, and Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa knocked off Georgia in the title game.

I think a similar sentiment applies here. Alabama and Ole Miss are both unlikely to make the playoff, but if they do, they’re going to be one of the favorites to win it all. Both teams are hanging around the top 5 in most computer metrics and are among the most talented teams in the country. The history of college basketball is filled with talented teams that have poor regular seasons and then go on a tournament run, and the 12 team playoff means that teams like Alabama and Ole Miss can do the same.

Baylor to win Big 12 90/1 (0.1 units)

Baylor fans were ready to run HC Dave Aranda out of town before the season. However, the Bears have been on an immense hot streak since elevating Sawyer Robertson to the starting QB role. In the event that the Big 12 comes down to a monstrous tiebreaker of teams with 6-3 conference records, Baylor is very likely to end up in the conference title game thanks to their superior conference strength of schedule. I think this is a fun longshot bet.