College Football Bracketology- Week 14 2024

While Ohio State may have lost at home to Michigan, the team that saw their playoff odds fall the most this week was Miami. Miami entered the week in good shape, with around a 70% chance to make the playoff. Not only did the Hurricanes lose to Syracuse, but other teams around them in the rankings (Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, SMU) all won. I’ll get into it in more detail below, but I think that the ‘Canes playoff hopes are now hanging on by a thread.

Normally I structure this post by going team by team and breaking down each team’s at-large chances. With ⅔ of the field already locked up, today I’ll instead talk about the biggest questions facing the committee in the next week.

Final At-Large Spot

First, let’s establish the teams that are locked into the field. I’m counting the following eight teams as locks:

That leaves 4 spots left in the field. Here’s how I see the odds for other teams to capture those 4 spots:

The winner of the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West title games will all get into the field. That leaves one spot remaining- let’s go through the contenders for that final spot in detail.

SMU- The Mustangs play Clemson for the ACC title. If they win, they’re in, very likely as the 3 seed. If they lose, they go into the at-large pool. SMU’s best result is a road win at Louisville and they also boast five other wins against bowl teams. I think that SMU is around a coin flip to get into the field with a loss.

Alabama- The Crimson Tide have a big win over Georgia, and perhaps more importantly, a win over fellow bubble team South Carolina. The case against Alabama is clear though- the committee has historically punished bad losses, and a 24-3 blowout to a 6-6 Oklahoma team, as well as the Vanderbilt loss, might both count. However, their name brand has helped them get into the playoff before and it might again.

South Carolina- The biggest argument in South Carolina’s favor is their recent form. The committee has shown some willingness to reward teams on a hot streak, and the Gamecocks finished on a 6 game win streak including wins over Clemson, Missouri and Texas A&M. Their loss to Alabama might doom them, but it was on the road and only by two points. 

Miami- I think Miami is pretty toast, but the committee has liked them more than me all season. Their wins are pretty similar to SMU’s (a road win at Louisville, and a smattering of wins against other ACC bowl teams) but their losses (at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse) are worse.

Ole Miss- I think Ole Miss is nearly dead. They’d have to jump Alabama, which would make no sense given that Alabama had a more impressive win than them this weekend.

Boise State- I haven’t seen anyone else discussing this possibility, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning the possibility that the Broncos could get an at-large bid if they lose to UNLV. I certainly don’t think it will happen, but the committee has been kind to conference championship game losers in the past, and there’s a tiny chance they could stay ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams.

I think that if SMU loses, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:

SMU 50%

Alabama 25%

South Carolina 22%

Miami 3%

And if SMU wins, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:

Alabama 50%

South Carolina 35%

Miami 12%

Ole Miss 2%

Boise State 1%

Regardless, we will have a lot more clarity after the committee’s reveal this Tuesday. We’ll know for sure what happens if SMU wins and have a good guess of what will happen if they lose.

Who Gets a Home Game?

Recall that the first round (and only the first round) of the playoff is played on campus sites. That means that teams seeded 5-8 will get a home game. Notre Dame is certain to be in this group, as well as the Oregon/Penn State loser. That leaves 3 candidates left for the remaining 2 spots: Ohio State, Tennessee and the Georgia/Texas loser.

If Georgia beats Texas, Texas will clearly host. If Texas beats Georgia, I think Georgia will still get to host, but I’m not 100% certain. It thus seems like the last spot will come down to Ohio State and Tennessee. 

The AP Poll has Tennessee over Ohio State but I am guessing that the committee will disagree and keep the Buckeyes higher. Ohio State’s wins (at Penn State, Indiana) are better than Tennessee’s (Alabama, Florida) and their losses are comparable. That likely sets up a Tennessee at Ohio State 8/9 game in the first round.

Who gets a Bye?

The top 2 seeds will clearly be the Big Ten and SEC champions. The last two byes are pretty fluid though, and I think there’s an interesting scenario on the table that no one is discussing.

First, let’s consider the case where SMU beats Clemson. SMU is clearly the 3 seed, and the last bye comes down to the Mountain West and Big 12. I feel pretty confident Boise State will stay ahead of the Big 12 champion if they win, but if UNLV upsets Boise State then the Big 12 champion should get the last bye.

Now, let’s suppose SMU loses. I think that the hierarchy for a bye goes: Boise State, Big 12 Champion, Clemson, UNLV. That is, if Clemson beats SMU and Boise State beats UNLV, I think that Clemson will be the 12 seed and have to go on the road in the first round of the playoff. No one seems to be talking about this, but it’s what Clemson would deserve after backing into the field.

Who Gets the 5 Seed

With the way the bracket sets up, the 5 seed is uniquely valuable this year. The 5 seed’s most likely path to the semifinals is a home game against the Big 12 champion and then a neutral site game against Boise State. On the other hand, the 6 seed’s most likely path is a home game against Alabama and then a neutral site game against SMU. I estimate that it’s about twice as easy to make the semifinals as the 5 seed than the 6 seed, so it’s a huge advantage.

The 5 seed will be the highest ranked team without a conference title. If Oregon loses to Penn State, they are the clear pick for the 5 seed. If Oregon wins, we have the following list of contenders:

11-2 Penn State

11-1 Notre Dame

11-2 Texas (if they lose to Georgia)

If Texas beats Georgia, I think that Notre Dame would get the nod. If Georgia beats Texas, it’s probably Texas.

Most Likely Playoff Bracket

Conference championship weekend normally features a few games with clear favorites (think Ohio State or Michigan against some hapless Big Ten West team) but with the death of divisions, all nine conference title games are expected to be reasonably close. That makes picking a “most likely” bracket still a bit of a guessing game at this time, but for argument’s sake I’ll suppose that all the relevant favorites (Oregon, Texas, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State) win.

1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)

2 Texas vs. (7 Georgia/10 Indiana)

3 SMU vs. (6 Penn State/11 Alabama)

4 Boise State vs. (5 Notre Dame/12 Arizona State)

I think this bracket has some clear winners (Notre Dame, Alabama) and some clear losers (Tennessee, Oregon). One general rule of thumb for the bracket reveal- you probably don’t want to see Ohio State, Georgia or Alabama in your section of the draw.