College Football Bracketology- Week 13 2024
Week 13 brought chaos to the playoff picture with Indiana, Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M all losing. The biggest beneficiaries of this were the ACC teams- Miami, SMU and Clemson all won and saw their playoff odds take big leaps forward.
With only two weeks left before Selection Sunday, it’s a bit easier to get into all of the various scenarios. In the sections below, I’ve tried analyzing a few possible scenarios (e.g. Miami loses the ACC title game) and given my thoughts on the probability that various teams could get into the playoff in those scenarios.
Tier 1: Locks and Near Locks
There are four locks in this tier- Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas. I don’t see any of these teams getting left out even if they lose every remaining game.
In my mind, Georgia just needs one more win (either Georgia Tech or the SEC title game) to get in. Notre Dame is in (and likely hosting a first round game) with a win over USC, and I think they have about a 75% chance of getting in even with a loss.
Indiana is the most controversial inclusion in this list. However, after looking through some scenarios, I am quite confident in their chances to make the field if they beat Purdue. They’d need two of the following things to happen to miss the field:
Texas A&M winning the SEC
Clemson beating South Carolina and jumping them
The loser of the ACC title game staying above them
This would have to be on top of all the other favorites (Tennessee, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) winning. All in all, there’s about a one in eight chance that this happens.
Tier 2: Probably In
Tennessee has the simplest playoff scenario of any team. If they beat Vanderbilt, they’re a lock, and likely hosting a first round game at Neyland Stadium. If they lose, they’re pretty much out of the discussion.
Miami and SMU both control their own destiny. They’ll likely face off in the ACC title game- I think that an 11-2 loser of the ACC title game would stand a decent chance to get into the field. I give Miami a 70% chance at the playoff if they beat Syracuse but lose to SMU, and give SMU a 55% chance at the playoff if they beat Cal but lose to Miami.
Tier 3: Contenders
Clemson has been flying up this list in recent weeks, both because of chaos in the SEC and also because the committee has consistently ranked them higher than I expected. Clemson needs a Miami loss to make the ACC title game, but even without that I think they stand around a 60% chance at an at-large bid if they can beat South Carolina.
Speaking of the Gamecocks, they have appeared in the longshots section for a few weeks now but this is their first time listed as a contender. If they beat Clemson this weekend, I think that the last playoff spot will likely come down to them, the ACC title game loser and Alabama.
Two weeks ago, I gave Arizona State a 3% chance at making the playoff. After two ranked wins against Kansas State and BYU, as well as helpful results elsewhere, they nearly control their own destiny for the Big 12 title.
Tier 4: Longshots
Texas A&M has a difficult, but simple path to the playoff- they need to beat both Georgia and Texas. Ole Miss needs to win the Egg Bowl and then get a tremendous amount of help elsewhere. Colorado and Baylor both have outside shots at the Big 12 but need lots of teams above them to lose.
Group of Five
I am still holding out hope for two Group of Five teams in the playoff. If we assume for a second that Boise State wins the Mountain West, I think that a 10-2 Tulane would make the playoff over a 9-3 or 8-4 Big 12 champion. There is about a 1 in 6 chance that the Big 12 produces a champion with at least 3 losses, so I think there’s a reasonable chance that we get two G5 teams in the field.