College Football Bracketology- Week 12 2024
Week 12 teased some chaos but never delivered it. We did see some playoff contenders lose, but outside of Tennessee (who lost to fellow contender Georgia), it was all teams on the edge of playoff contention who fell. We wish farewell to LSU, Kansas State, Missouri, Washington State and West Virginia who are out of contention after losses this weekend.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
The biggest change in this tier from last week is the addition of Georgia. After beating Tennessee, Georgia is a stone cold lock to make the playoff with two more wins, and hosts UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is squirrelly, but Georgia should still be a 17 point favorite or so in that game.
Ohio State, Texas and Penn State all saw their odds tick up a bit with routine wins this week. I’m also a bit more bullish about Indiana’s playoff chances than the betting market- I think an 11-1 Indiana is still very likely to make the field.
Tier 2: Probably In
All of these teams control their own destiny, but have at least one decent hurdle left to clear. Notre Dame is a 16 point favorite against Army this week but will likely only be a 6 point favorite or so at USC on Thanksgiving weekend. I have no clue what happens to a 10-2 Notre Dame team that loses to USC- I think it’s a coin flip whether they get into the field in that scenario.
Ole Miss travels to Florida this week as a 10 point favorite, and then hosts an awful Mississippi State team to close out the year. A 2-0 finish should lock up a bid.
Alabama is in an interesting scenario- they have two moderate tests (at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn) left. If they win both of those, they’re very likely to be in the SEC title game. If they lose the SEC title game to say, Texas, it’ll be interesting to see how the committee ranks a 10-3 Alabama team relative to say, 10-2 Tennessee. Based on historical precedent, my hunch is that they wouldn’t fall very far for losing the SEC title game.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Tennessee falls into this tier after their loss to Georgia. If we end up in the scenario with a logjam of 10-2 teams that I outlined last week, I think that Tennessee would be the odd team out. However, that scenario is still unlikely as there are plenty of possible upsets over the next two weeks. The Volunteers do still need to take care of business, most notably in their Rivalry Week game at Vanderbilt.
You might notice that Colorado’s odds to make the playoff are actually slightly lower than their odds to win the Big 12. I’m pricing in some small possibility (perhaps 1 in 10) that the Big 12 champion gets left out of the playoff. Suppose, for example that Colorado loses to Kansas this week, but still makes the Big 12 championship game and wins it (this scenario is not that unlikely- all it would require is 1 loss each from Iowa State and Arizona State).
In this scenario, we could be looking at 2 playoff spots for 10-3 Colorado, 12-1 Boise State and 12-1 Army. Recall that the top 5 conference champions get autobids to the playoff- there is no guarantee that all the P4 conferences get a team in if their champion is not one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions. I’m not certain that a 3 loss Big 12 champion makes the field in that scenario.
Tier 4: Longshots
The clear winner here this week was Arizona State, while the clear loser was BYU. Arizona State’s win and BYU’s loss combined to vault Arizona State from a 3% chance to win the Big 12 to a 22% chance. The two teams face off this weekend and the winner will just need one more win to make the conference title game.
Clemson’s playoff odds ticked up a bit after their win at Pittsburgh. I think there’s an outside shot Clemson gets an at-large bid if they knock off South Carolina and finish 10-2, but they’d need chaos elsewhere. Speaking of South Carolina, I added the Gamecocks to the longshots list this week- if chaos erupts in the next two weeks, a 9-3 South Carolina team with wins over Texas A&M, Clemson and Missouri could merit playoff consideration.
Group of Five
You’ll notice that for the first time, these numbers sum to greater than 100%. That’s due to the aforementioned scenario where two G5 teams get in in lieu of the Big 12 champion. Tulane is the biggest riser in this section- they are up to the top 20 in my ratings after demolishing Navy and secured their spot in the AAC title game. Tulane will be at least a touchdown favorite at home against Army and is likely one Boise State slip up away from the playoff.