College Football Picks Week 12 2024

I went 3-1 in my picks last week, Minnesota looked awful against Rutgers but my other three bets covered rather easily. I had yet another underdog I picked win straight up last week as Georgia Tech beat Miami as a 13.5 point dog.

I cashed some winners in my preseason futures this week as well- I was getting worried about Virginia over 4.5 wins but they upset Pitt for their fifth win. Fresno State’s disaster season continued with a loss to 2-7 Air Force, so I cashed my Fresno State under 8 wins ticket. 

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Preseason Bets: +9.17 units

Total: +6.88 units

Texas @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

About a month ago, I bet 4 units on Arkansas as a 14 point underdog at home against Tennessee. This game feels similar to me- Arkansas is an inconsistent team, but their ceiling is quite high and on their day they can play with anyone. Texas, meanwhile, looks shakier the longer you look at them- they only have one win over a team with a winning record. My model thinks Texas is more like a top 7 team than a top 3 team, so they could be in some trouble on the road against the plucky Razorbacks.

Arkansas +17 -110 (2 units)

Ball State @ Buffalo (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)

First year Buffalo coach Pete Lembo was the head coach at Ball State many moons ago, and now faces his former team. Ball State has shown some signs of life this year, knocking off Northern Illinois and playing Vanderbilt close in recent weeks. Buffalo is a bottom half MAC team and should not be nearly a touchdown favorite at home. 

Ball State +5 -110 (1 unit)

Syracuse @ California (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

Cal is a few plays away from a very special season. All of their losses are by five points or less and all of their wins are by double digits. The Golden Bears are an above average ACC team, and the same cannot be said of Syracuse. Syracuse has been the beneficiary of insane close game luck and is clearly the worse team despite their better record. As an added bonus, I plan to be in attendance at this game rooting for Cal.

California -7 -110 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

It is a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is sniffing a bowl. The Demon Deacons are in the 80s in my power ratings and might have the worst roster in the power conferences. North Carolina has pulled themselves out of their mid-season tailspin and has better players at nearly every position.

North Carolina -10 -110 (1 unit)

Alabama to win SEC +650 (2 units)

LSU to win SEC +3500 (0.5 units)

I spent a long time digging through the SEC’s tiebreaker procedures today, and I really like both of these bets. To explain why, let me briefly explain how the SEC’s tiebreakers work. Right now, there are three teams with 1 loss in SEC play (Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee) and then several teams with 2 losses (Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri).

Texas plays Texas A&M in a few weeks, so it’s possible that Tennessee wins out and then plays the Texas/Texas A&M winner in the SEC title game. However, Tennessee is quite unlikely to win out as they have to travel to both Georgia and Vanderbilt (the Vols are a 10 point underdog to Georgia this week).

If Tennessee (or the Texas/Texas A&M winner) trip up, then 2 loss teams come into play. This is what will probably happen- we’ll get a ginormous group of 2 loss teams and have to pick one (or maybe two) title game participants out of the group. In a huge group tiebreaker, conference strength of schedule will rule the day.

Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule of all the contenders and is thus likely to come out on top in the tiebreaker. The other team that’s played a similarly tough schedule is LSU. In a massive tiebreaker jumble, it’s very likely one of these teams will come out on top.

One added note- because conference SOS is likely to be the deciding factor, games you might think are irrelevant could determine the conference race. For example, LSU has played Arkansas and Alabama has played Missouri, and the winner of the November 30th Arkansas/Missouri game could determine who makes the SEC title game.

SMU to win ACC +190 (2 units)

Once again, the tiebreaker math is in our favor with this bet. SMU is overwhelmingly likely to make the ACC title game, as they’d have to go 1-2 or worse down the stretch to miss the title game. My model would make SMU a very small underdog (2 points or so) against Clemson or Miami, so I think there’s some decent value here.

Clemson to miss Playoff -270 (4 units)

I will admit that this line is no longer available- I pounced on -270 when I saw it today, and it has moved to -350 in the few hours it took me to write this post. Clemson has two routes to the playoff- they can either win the ACC or get an at-large bid. To win the ACC, they’d have to (i) beat Pitt, (ii) hope Miami loses to an awful Wake Forest team or a mediocre Syracuse team and then (iii) beat SMU in the ACC title game. That is a pretty unlikely series of events. Their at-large odds are looking pretty slim: the giant group of 2 loss SEC teams will all be ahead of Clemson, and Clemson still has a very tricky game against South Carolina to tangle with. 

Colorado to miss Playoff -130 (3 units)

I love this Colorado team as much as anyone else, but this line is a bit ridiculous. Colorado needs to win the Big 12 to make the playoff- if they lose again, they’ll have 3 losses and there’s simply no chance a 3 loss Big 12 team makes the playoff. Colorado has two games left that will be relative tossups- a trip to Kansas and the potential Big 12 title game. They also need to navigate a home game against rival Utah. They’re going to be favored in every remaining game, but only very slight favorites in two of them, and this line is just not quite right.