College Football Bracketology- Week 10 2024
After a few weeks of chalk, week 9 gave us some decent upsets that shook up the playoff race a little. Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State were teams 9, 12, 14 and 15 in my playoff odds a week ago, and all of them lost this week. That opened up the door quite a bit for teams like BYU, SMU and Indiana who saw their odds rise significantly.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
It’s no surprise that these were the top five teams in the committee’s first in-season rankings. Any team in this group (except Oregon, who is a stone cold lock) would be able to handle one more loss with no trouble but would be in some serious danger with two more losses. If I had to pick one team in this tier to be worried about, it might be Georgia, who has to navigate games against Ole Miss and Tennessee in back to back weeks.
Tier 2: Probably In
Penn State drops from the top tier to the second tier after their loss to Ohio State. Their trickiest remaining game is a trip to Minnesota- I reckon they’ll be around 8 point favorites there- but overall their schedule is manageable. I think a 10-2 Penn State would get in, but I’m not totally certain.
Notre Dame was hurt by the committee’s first rankings, I expected them to be around 8th and they came in at 10th. They’ll be fine if they win out, but I think a 10-2 Notre Dame is a coin toss to get in.
Alabama’s season will come down to this weekend’s game against LSU. Their last few games are quite easy, so if they win this one they’ll likely finish 10-2 and easily make it into the field. If they lose, they’ll be praying for chaos elsewhere- I don’t think we’ll see any 3 loss teams in the playoff this year.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
BYU and Colorado were both huge winners this week despite being on bye, as fellow Big 12 contenders Iowa State and Kansas State lost. Both teams face tricky road tests this week- BYU is a 4 point favorite at Utah and Colorado is a 3 point favorite at Texas Tech.
Much like Alabama, Ole Miss’ season likely comes down to this weekend’s game. If they beat Georgia, they’ll be very likely to go 10-2 and should get into the field. If they lose, they pick up a third loss and are pretty much sunk. Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU also must win this week to stay in contention.
SMU was the biggest winner of week 9. Not only did they beat Pitt in convincing fashion, but Clemson also lost to Louisville. SMU holds the tiebreaker over Clemson, so they’d have to go 1-2 in their remaining regular season games to miss the ACC title game. It seems safe to say SMU will be playing for a spot in the playoff on conference championship weekend.
Tier 4: Longshots
Clemson falls into the longshot tier after their blowout loss to Louisville. The Tigers do not hold the tiebreaker over Miami or SMU and thus need a ton of help to make the ACC title game. Even if they win out, I am not optimistic on the playoff odds of a 10-2 Clemson team that doesn’t yet have a good win on their schedule.
Last week’s Big 12 chaos means that there are several teams on the fringe of the conference race who I added here. Texas Tech has the cleanest path to the playoff of any team outside the initial committee top 25- if they win out and both Kansas State and Iowa State lose once, they’re in the conference title game.
Group of Five
This remains Boise State’s race to lose. The Broncos were a bit higher than I expected in the initial committee rankings- they clocked in at 12th when I expected to see them around 15th. A 12-1 Boise State team should thus avoid the 12 seed, and if some upsets happen in the ACC or Big 12, might even be able to get the 4 seed and a bye to the second round of the playoff.
If Army and Boise State both win out, I suspect we will see them both in the playoff. However, that would require Army to upset Notre Dame as a 14 point underdog, so we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.