College Football Bracketology- Week 11 2024
We’re going to begin this week’s bracketology with a very big picture view of the playoff field. After recent upsets in the ACC and Big 12 (Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State and Clemson all losing in the past two weeks), it looks increasingly likely that both leagues will have only one playoff bid. After we take out the Group of Five’s playoff spot, that likely leaves nine spots for the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. This scenario is not a certainty- for example, a 12-1 BYU team that loses the Big 12 title game would almost certainly get an at-large- but it is the most likely outcome.
Right now, there are 4 Big Ten teams and 7 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses, not to mention Notre Dame. If every remaining game this season is won by the favorite, this would knock out Missouri (who is a 13 point underdog at South Carolina this week) and Texas A&M (who will be a decent underdog against Texas). This would still leave 10 teams for 9 spots- and if the favorites prevail everywhere, that means a 10-2 Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama team is left on the chopping block.
It’s unlikely that this exact scenario materializes, as there will probably be an upset somewhere- suppose Ole Miss loses at Florida, or Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, or Notre Dame loses to USC, or something like that. However, it does lead us to two general rules for playoff selection this year:
Any Big Ten or SEC team with 2 or fewer losses should be in the field, unless we get a completely chalk finish to the season. Indiana is probably the one exception to this rule. This rule may or may not apply to Notre Dame- I’m incredibly unsure as to what will happen with a 10-2 Notre Dame.
Any ACC or Big 12 team with 0 or 1 losses will be in the field. The only possible team that could fit this criteria and not also be a conference champion is a 12-1 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game.
Most likely, after we fill out teams that fit in category (1) and (2), the field will be full. It’s possible we’ll have a spot or two left, at which point teams like 11-2 Miami, 10-2 Kansas State, 10-2 Clemson or 9-3 Georgia would enter consideration, just to name a few.
Now that we’ve set the table for the playoff picture, it’s time for some team by team analysis.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
Georgia and Miami fall out of the top tier this week, and are replaced by Penn State and Indiana. The Big Ten conference office must be salivating at the way the schedule worked this year- assuming chalk holds the rest of the way, the Big Ten will finish the regular season with Oregon at 12-0 and Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana at 11-1. They’d be nearly a lock to get 4 bids in the playoff, and there would be no controversy about the conference title game as Ohio State would have wins over both Penn State and Indiana.
Tier 2: Probably In
There are 5 teams in this tier and 5 teams in the top tier. As I outlined at the top of the post, it is impossible for all 10 of these teams to make the playoff- meaning that at least one team is set up for a disappointing finish to the season.
Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Alabama have relatively simple paths. I really struggle to see any of those three teams missing the field if they win out, and they all have relatively light schedules. The only games where I could see any of those teams as less than double digit favorites are Ole Miss @ Florida and Notre Dame @ USC.
The winner of this week’s Georgia/Tennessee game is going to be in excellent shape and will likely move to tier 1 next week. The loser is in some trouble. For Georgia, it would be their third loss- if any team is going to make the field with 3 losses, it would be a Georgia squad who owns a road win at Texas. For Tennessee, it would be their second loss, and they have the least impressive resume of any potential 2 loss SEC team- the win over Alabama is their only win over a likely bowl team. Tennessee also still has a tough trip to Vanderbilt where they’ll only be a touchdown favorite or so.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Interestingly, this tier contains two Big 12 teams and two ACC teams. We’re reasonably likely to see Miami play SMU for the ACC title and BYU play Colorado for the Big 12 title. The most likely scenario is that the winner of each game will be in the field and the loser will be out. If any team from this group is going to get an at-large bid, I’m most bullish on BYU’s chances. The Cougars have the best wins of the group (SMU, Kansas State) and should get into the field as a 12-1 conference title game loser.
I also would not rule out the possibility that either the ACC or the Big 12 fails to get a team in the playoff. For example, suppose that Colorado loses to Kansas but goes on to win the Big 12 at 10-3, and both Boise State and Army win out. I’m nearly certain that a 12-1 Boise State and 13-0 Army team would get into the playoff over a 10-3 Colorado.
Tier 4: Longshots
Washington State is getting a bit more respect from the playoff committee than I would’ve guessed- they are all the way up to 18th in the most recent rankings. I don’t think their playoff hopes are completely dead- if chaos strikes the SEC in the next few weeks, they only have to climb six or seven more spots in the rankings to get an at-large bid.
Everyone else in this section is still here on a technicality. LSU still has an outside shot at the SEC title, Missouri sucks but technically still has only 2 losses, and the Big 12 teams on the list all have outside paths to the conference championship.
Group of Five
Boise State’s playoff odds have steadily ticked up for many weeks in a row. I think that the Broncos control their own destiny for the playoff- even in the unlikely event that Army remains undefeated (Army is a 15.5 point underdog against Notre Dame), I think that a 12-1 Boise State team still gets into the field as an at-large.
Tulane travels to Navy this week. If Tulane wins, it guarantees a Tulane/Army AAC title game. If Navy wins, it keeps some wildcard scenarios open for the G5 berth. The craziest possible scenario I can imagine involves Navy winning the AAC (+800 or so), Colorado State winning the Mountain West (+650 or so) and Louisiana failing to win the Sun Belt (-130 or so).