College Football Picks Week 11

Week 1: +1.82 units

Week 2: +9.9 units

Week 3: +5.37 units

Week 4: +12.84 units

Week 5: +5.54 units

Week 6: +0.14 units

Week 7: -3.60 units

Week 8: -4.13 units

Week 9: -1.01 units

Week 10: -3.68 units

Season: +22.99 units

I didn’t bet many units last week, but lost my two 2-unit picks on UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Both games were close, with UNLV allowing a late touchdown to allow Fresno State to cover while Florida Atlantic won a rockfight against Western Kentucky.

I had more picks lined up this week, but two games I liked have been taken off the board due to COVID (Auburn/Mississippi State and Utah/UCLA) and other lines have moved in my favor too much since the open (Coastal Carolina/Troy and Wake Forest/North Carolina)..

(Update 11/14 6:30 PM Central):

Cal’s game with Arizona State was cancelled due to COVID, they are now playing UCLA instead. I am adding a 1 unit play on California -3 -113 in that game.

Kent State @ Bowling Green (Tuesday 6:30 PM Central)

My model thinks that Bowling Green is the worst team in the FBS, only UMass can compare to the Falcons in their ineptitude. Bowling Green was the third worst team in FBS last year and returns almost nothing on offense from that team. They weren’t inspiring last week when they were blown out by Toledo. Kent State is a solid mid-tier MAC team and should roll here.

Kent State -19.5 -115 (2 units)

California @ Arizona State (Saturday 9:30 PM Central)

There’s a good chance this game doesn’t happen as Cal had to cancel their game last week due to COVID protocols. If the Bears are healthy enough to play, I think they’re the most under-valued team in the Pac-12. They return nearly every significant contributor on offense from last year’s team and are a fringe top 25 team, and I like them for a medium sized play here.

California +4.5 -109 (2 units)

Wisconsin @ Michigan (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)

This is another game that is in jeopardy, as Wisconsin has cancelled their last two games due to a large COVID outbreak. Even with the number of players Wisconsin could have out, they’re quite a bit better than a Michigan team that has been quite poor so far this season. Michigan’s run game has been non-existent and their suspect front seven will be gashed by a potent Wisconsin rushing attack.

Wisconsin -2.5 -114 (2 units)

Florida Atlantic @ Florida International (Friday 6:00 PM Central)

This is a massive rivalry game for both teams, but FAU is a clear favorite. FIU is the only FBS team who has lost to an FCS team this year, although the Jacksonville State squad they lost to would be favored over a dozen FBS teams. FIU has underperformed a bit this year and Florida Atlantic is still one of my most under-valued teams in FBS, I like them for a small play here.

Florida Atlantic -8.5 -110 (1 unit)

Rice @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)

This line is a bit perplexing to me. Rice has barely played this year due to significant COVID issues, but has not really impressed as they lost to a really bad MTSU squad. Louisiana Tech has played 7 times, and they’ve been a middle of the pack CUSA team. I’m still holding onto my preseason priors pretty strongly with Rice, which indicate that they’re mediocre at best.

Louisiana Tech +1.5 -114 (1 unit)