2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2

In the first part of my preseason bets series I took a look at the American, ACC and the Big 12. This will be part two of three in the series as I go through the remaining Group of Five leagues.

Conference USA

UTEP over 5.5 wins -125 (5 units), UTEP to win Conference USA +2000 (0.5 units)

This is going to be one of my biggest plays of the preseason, I absolutely love UTEP this year. The Miners are historically one of the worst programs in FBS, but unlike the other perennial bottom feeders they have good fan support. Dana Dimel has done an admirable job turning this team from a complete joke into a bowl team. They went 7-6 last season for their best year since 2014, and return 15 starters from that team including QB Gavin Hardison and the best front seven in the league. The schedule is a dream as well as they play the 3 worst teams in FBS and a few others outside the top 100. I don’t understand this line at all and have seen others picking the over on UTEP as well.

FIU Under 3 wins +105 (2 units)

I highlighted FIU in my article previewing the Group of Five as the most dysfunctional team in all of FBS. I don’t think people understand how bad things have gotten for the Panthers, I rate this team as the worst in FBS by a healthy margin. Former head coach Butch Davis torched this place on the way out the door, blasting the university for not providing enough financial support to the program. Last year’s team went 1-11 and the coaching change led to a wave of transfers as only 10 starters return. The saving grace here is the easiest schedule in FBS, but I still struggle to see this team getting to 3 wins.

Western Kentucky to win CUSA +450 (1 unit)

Western Kentucky was one of the most exciting teams in football last year, led by now Patriots QB Bailey Zappe. The Hilltoppers have a lot to replace with Zappe, his OC (Zach Kittley, off to Texas Tech) and his best WR (Jerreth Sterns, off to the Buccaneers) all gone. They were the best team in CUSA last year even though UTSA grabbed the headlines with an 11-0 start. The good news is that WKU brings in some transfers again and the defense should be the best in the league. The other top teams in the league (UAB, UTSA) are either going through big coaching changes or have even more talent to replace so I like a flier on WKU at +450.

MAC

Ball State Under 5.5 wins -150 (2 units)

Ball State shocked the country in 2020, winning the MAC and finishing ranked for the first time in program history. There were a lot of calls for HC Mike Neu’s job before that year but he now looks entrenched here after that dream season. Last year Ball State fell down to earth. They were quite a bit worse than their 6-7 record would indicate as they finished 114th in my ratings. They rank near the bottom of FBS in returning experience and have a lot of uncertainty at the QB position so I forecast them at the bottom of the MAC West. Pounce on this line if you can get it at 5.5, as I’ve seen it offered down to 4.5 at some books.

Bowling Green Over 4 wins -145 (1 unit)

Bowling Green hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2015 although current HC Scot Loeffler’s 3 years as head coach have been much better than the disastrous 2016-2018 tenure of Mike Jinks. The Falcons went 4-8 last year, beating Minnesota as a 31 point underdog and showing real signs of life for the first time in years. They bring back 18 starters from last year’s team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a bowl. I’m upset with this one as I missed a big opportunity here. This line was at 3.5 a few weeks ago and it would have been a multi-unit play there but it’s just 1 unit at this number.

Sun Belt

Marshall Under 7 wins +120 (3 units)

Marshall makes the leap from Conference USA to the Sun Belt this year, and will play in the new Sun Belt East, the most exciting division in the Group of Five. I’ve seen a few people picking the Thundering Herd to win their division and I really do not see it. The step up in competition from CUSA to the Sun Belt is serious and they play Notre Dame and Louisiana from outside the division as well. They bring back only 11 starters from last year’s 7-6 team, and while the recruiting classes are quite good, the schedule is much harder than last year and the talent level is similar. Marshall will be a force in the Sun Belt soon but I don’t think it’ll be this year.