2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3
In the second part of my preseason bets series, I finished up my preview of the Group of Five conferences. Today, in the final installment of the series, I’ll take a look at my favorite bets in the Pac-12 and the SEC.
Pac-12
USC Under 9.5 wins -120 (5 units)
This is my favorite bet in the preseason and will likely be my favorite pick all year. USC has been lost in the wilderness for a few years now, culminating in a 4-8 season last year where they finished 76th in my ratings. Optimism abounds this year in Los Angeles though, as the Trojans bring in HC Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams from Oklahoma, along with a plethora of other transfers on offense. They will inarguably have a top 10 offense in the sport but the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The D was horrendous last year, allowing 34 points to a horrible Arizona team and getting shredded for 62 points by UCLA. 9.5 wins implies USC is around the 10th best team in the sport, and I think they belong around 30 spots below that, there is simply no precedent for a single year transfer-driven turnaround like what they’re trying.
Notre Dame +3 -110 @ USC (1 unit), Utah -4 -110 vs. USC (2 units), UCLA +3.5 -110 vs. USC (1 unit)
The only reason I’m not playing the USC win total for more units is because I’m also betting against them in all these individual games. I put an extra unit on the Utah pick as I am a bit bullish on the Utes this year, while I’m more neutral on Notre Dame and UCLA. These figure to be USC’s 3 toughest games of the year, hence why they’re the 3 with a lookahead line listed.
Oregon State Over 6.5 wins +115 (1 unit)
Oregon State has been through a rough few years, but appears to be turning a corner under 5th year HC Jonathan Smith. The Beavers went 7-6 last year, beating Pac-12 champion Utah as well as defeating USC in Los Angeles for the first time since 1960. OSU starts their season with a fascinating pair of games against MWC favorites Boise State and Fresno State which will set the tone for their season. The Pac-12 slate is actually easier than the non-conference schedule as every other team in the Pac-12 North besides Oregon is in disarray right now. I think the Beavers will flirt with their first ever Pac-12 title game appearance.
Utah to win the Pac-12 +240 (2 units)
Utah had a fantastic year in 2021, overcoming a 1-2 start to win the Pac-12 and making it to the Rose Bowl where they narrowly lost to Ohio State. The Utes finished the year an impressive 4th in my ratings, behind just Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. They start 2022 4th in my ratings as well behind the same three teams. QB Cam Rising is experienced and they have the best line play in the conference by some distance. Utah and USC are in a dead heat for first in the Pac-12 title odds, and given how low I am on USC and how much I like Utah it makes sense to put some cash on the Utes.
SEC
Florida Under 7 wins +105 (2 units)
Florida let go of Dan Mullen after a 6-7 season last year that was punctuated by a horrific blowout loss to South Carolina. Billy Napier steps in as the new coach, and while I’m quite bullish on him in the long term, even he has admitted that this will not be a quick rebuild in Gainesville. QB Anthony Richardson is undoubtedly a stud but outside of him, the Gators were hit hard in the transfer portal. Their running backs and receivers in particular are far from their usual standard. I’ve seen Florida pegged for third in the SEC East elsewhere, I have them tied with Missouri for fifth.
Florida State PK vs. Florida (2 units), Georgia -15.5 -110 vs. Florida (1 unit)
I’m also putting on some short Florida exposure through these lookahead lines. I bet on Florida State’s win total over already so my opinion on the Gators/Seminoles clash should be clear. Georgia is also so far ahead of the rest of the SEC East that I think they should have no trouble with a 5-7 or 6-6 type Gators team.