2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1

For those who are newer to my blog, college football is the only sport that I bet, and I make my bets with the aid of a model that I have developed over the years. I went into some detail on a previous version of my model on my old blog back in 2017 if you’re interested in the methodology. I have made some changes since then, most notably in how I consume box score data, but the fundamental tenets of my model are largely the same.

I have so many picks to make in the preseason that I am dividing them into multiple posts. In this post I’ll cover my picks from the American, ACC and Big 12.

American

UCF Under 8.5 Wins +125 (3 units)

I have had some good success betting against UCF in recent years, most notably when I had Tulsa ML +850 when the Golden Hurricanes beat UCF in 2020. The Knights went 9-4 last year but were quite a bit worse than their record, squeaking out wins over bad USF and Tulane teams and going 5-8 ATS. The strength of this team is their skill talent where they are loaded with Power Five athletes like QB John Rhys Plumlee. However they do not have the athletes on the lines to compete with Cincinnati and Houston. The middle of the American is strong enough that I find it unlikely this team can go 9-3 or better.

Cincinnati to win The American +190 (1 unit)

Cincinnati had their best season in program history last year, going 13-1 and making the playoff. While the Bearcats will undeniably take a step back this year, I still fancy their chances to win the American. They lose QB Desmond RIdder and CB Sauce Gardner, along with a few other NFL players. However, Luke Fickell has been recruiting at a higher level than any other G5 program and there is lots of talent on the roster. Most notably, all five offensive line starters return from last year. I think people underestimate how big the dropoff is between Cincinnati and the rest of the league and fancy their chances at a threepeat.

ACC

Clemson under 10.5 wins -130 (3 units)

Clemson suffered through their worst season in almost a decade last year going 10-3 and failing to win the ACC. The big question around the program is whether this was just a blip or the canary in the coal mine for the future of the Tigers. I don’t have a strong opinion on that question, but I do think Clemson is very far from being a national title contender this year. QB DJ Uiagalelei was absolutely brutal and I figure he will be replaced by Cade Klubnik this year. More worryingly, the skill talent is not up to its usual level. While the front seven is the best in the country, the rest of the roster falls far behind Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. The only reason I am not playing this bigger is because I have more picks fading Clemson coming right up.

NC State +10 -110 @ Clemson (1 unit) and Notre Dame +2.5 -110 vs. Clemson (1 unit)

I’m grouping these two plays together as the thesis behind them is the same. This is actually the first time I’ve played these advanced lines before, but I quite like them and am pleasantly surprised to see them listed at -110 juice. I’m trying to get as much short exposure to Clemson as I can, and these are the only other opportunities to do that outside the win total. I don’t have any strong opinions on Notre Dame (I see them as a 9-3 team as most do) but I do like NC State a bit as you’ll see below.

Florida State over 6.5 wins -135 (1 unit)

This is a big change for me, as Florida State under 7.5 wins was my biggest pick of 2019. That paid off for me as the 2019 Seminoles were such a mess that they got Willie Taggart fired after only two years in Tallahassee. Things have changed, and a few years of decent recruiting has built up the talent on this roster. This is a pleasant change of pace as the ‘Noles were fielding the worst offensive line in the league a few years ago, an embarrassment for a program of their stature. I’m overall quite low on the rest of the ACC compared to the market which makes a lot of games in conference play against the likes of Wake Forest and Louisville look more winnable.

NC State to win the ACC +750 (0.5 units)

Clemson is the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC at -165. Given how low I am on the Tigers, it makes sense to bet on one of the other ACC contenders and my favorite out of them is NC State. The Wolfpack return QB Devin Leary from last year’s team along with 10 starters on defense. They likely will have to beat Clemson on the road to win the league, but they beat them last year and if they can do it again the rest of the ACC Atlantic is weaker than it was last year.

Big 12

Kansas over 2.5 wins -135 (2 units)

Kansas abruptly fired Les Miles in spring 2021 and made a great hire by bringing in former Buffalo HC Lance Leipold to replace him. While the Jayhawks were only 2-10 last year, they showed real signs of life, beating Texas as a 31 point underdog and playing Oklahoma and TCU close as huge underdogs. Leipold has been given a lot of leash by the athletic department to build this team his way and I think it will start to pay off as they return 17 starters. I favor Kansas against Tennessee Tech and Duke and think they pick off a Big 12 team or two somewhere.

Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 +550 (1 unit), Baylor to win the Big 12 +650 (1 unit)

The Big 12 has been dominated by Oklahoma for the last decade, and they had won 6 straight conference titles going into last year. However, the Sooners lost to both of these teams last year and instead, the Bears and Pokes faced off in the Big 12 title game where Baylor won on a thrilling goal line stand. These two squads are #3 and #4 in the Big 12 title odds, and I am betting on both of them as I think the gap between them and the top 2 (Oklahoma and Texas) is relatively small. Oklahoma State has the best quarterback in the league in Spencer Sanders, while Baylor boasts a top 5 defense in the country. This is just a bet on overall Big 12 parity as I think the top 4 teams in the league are pretty interchangeable this year.