College Football Picks Week 3
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Last week was quite solid, with my biggest picks of Louisiana and Coastal Carolina both hitting. In addition, I won two of my three moneyline underdogs, with Louisiana +340 and Georgia Tech +380 cashing. There’s fewer juicy games this week, although the schedule expands a bit next week with conference schedules beginning in the Big 12 and SEC.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Oklahoma State, and understandably so given that they return 87% of their offensive yards from last year, including star RB Chuba Hubbard. The Pokes are definitely improved from last year, but they were a bit lucky to finish 8-5 last year. Tulsa, meanwhile, has one of the most experienced offenses in the country and was unlucky to go 4-8 last year. The Golden Hurricane are sneaky good and I like them quite a bit here.
Tulsa +21.5 -110 (4 units)
Tulsa ML +1100 (0.5 units)
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
With fewer teams playing fall football this year, some dubious teams are going to be ranked. Pittsburgh is among them, coming in at #25 in the AP Poll this week. Although Pitt went 8-5 last year and Syracuse went 5-7, the Panthers weren’t actually that much better as they had much better luck in close games. I think this spread is a bit overdone, Syracuse is not as bad a team as they might appear.
Syracuse +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +1200 (0.5 units)
Houston @ Baylor
This game was just put on the schedule over the weekend, as Houston and Baylor both had games cancelled. Houston’s season fell off the rails last year, and they don’t even return a ton from that team that failed to make a bowl. Baylor, meanwhile, is breaking in a new head coach but still brings back some talent from last year’s team that was inches from the playoff. I like the Bears here for my first pick of a favorite this season.
Baylor -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Charlotte @ North Carolina
Charlotte put in quite a good fight last week against a very strong Appalachian State team before falling apart in the 4th quarter. The 49ers are not the laughingstock of FBS that they were a few years ago, there’s nearly 20 teams playing fall football I have below them. North Carolina is deserving of their borderline top 10 ranking, but are facing a stronger opponent than most realize.
Charlotte +27 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 2
Week 1: 1-0 +1.82 units
2020 Total: 1-0 +1.82 units
A nice beginning to the season with Arkansas State covering against Memphis, although it appears a handful of Memphis players have come down with coronavirus since the game.
Louisiana @ Iowa State
Louisiana is one of the most undervalued teams in the country. They finished last year as a borderline top 25 team. They return 75% of their offensive yards and 100 offensive line starts from that team, putting them near the top of the experience charts. Iowa State is a solid team themselves, but this line is assuming Louisiana is a solid Sun Belt team, as opposed to an elite one.
Louisiana +12 -110 (4 units)
Louisiana ML +340 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina @ Kansas
Coastal got their biggest win in program history on the road against Kansas last year, and I think they have a good chance to pull off the upset again. As bad as Kansas was last year, I expect them to be worse as the offense is completely barren of returning talent outside star RB Pooka Williams. Coastal returns a lot from last year’s squad, and I think this line should be near a pick'.
Coastal Carolina +6.5 -110 (4 units)
Louisiana Monroe @ Army
ULM was one of my favorite teams last year, and they nearly pulled off a massive upset against Florida State in September. They’re a much worse team this year, but I like them here. Army’s style of play makes it difficult for them to blow out teams, and I still have them as a bottom half team even after their big win over Middle Tennessee last week.
Louisiana Monroe +22.5 -110 (2 units)
ULM ML +750 (0.5 units)
Georgia Tech @ Florida State
I bet against Florida State frequently last season, and will likely be continuing that this year. After quarterback, offensive line is the most important position for returning experience and the Seminoles are a disaster there once again. Georgia Tech is the most experienced team in the country as they enter year 2 of their new offense and I think they have a decent shot at the upset.
Georgia Tech +13 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech ML +380 (0.5 units)
UAB @ Miami
UAB has one of the top defenses in the Group of Five, and is easily in the top tier of Conference USA. Miami lives in the middle class of the ACC right now, they should be a decent favorite here, but not over two touchdowns. They’re in a bit of a state of flux with plenty of new transfers coming in, which my system is a bit skeptical of.
UAB +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse @ North Carolina
Few teams have been more hyped in the offseason than North Carolina, and it’s easy to understand why as they return 95% of their offensive yardage from last year. Still, I think this spread is a little overdone. Syracuse was not as bad as their record indicated last year, they’d have to be the worst team in the ACC to justify being a 3 touchdown underdog here.
Syracuse +23 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 1
My college football picks are back for 2020. With a limited slate of games this week, I only have 1 pick. Last year’s picks were quite successful, finishing +33.74 units on the year.
Arkansas State @ Memphis
Memphis is one of the top Group of Five teams in the country and figures to be second favorites to win the AAC after UCF. However, Arkansas State is one of the top teams in the Sun Belt, and returns over 80% of its offensive production from last year’s 8-5 squad. I like the Red Wolves here.
Arkansas State +18 -110 (2 units)
2020 Preseason College Football Preseason Top 25
Ordinarily around this time I’d have done a significant amount of work preparing for the college football season, but COVID has obviously thrown a wrench in that. I’m still quite skeptical that any meaningful college football is going to be played this fall, but the season is now close enough that I might as well preview the football that is scheduled to be played.
To start off, here’s my model’s preseason top 25 for the teams that are currently scheduled to play fall football. I made some minor tweaks to my model over the offseason, but it fundamentally hasn’t changed that much in recent years. While it may diverge a bit early in the season, in the long run my model tends to converge towards well-known predictive systems like SP+ and Sagarin which are strong predictors of betting lines.
LSU
LSU presents an interesting case for my system. 2019 LSU finished the year as the highest rated team in years, so despite the tremendous amount of talent they lost, they remain #1. The 10 game conference schedule is actually not that bad for the Tigers, as they play the 3 weakest teams in the East in Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
Clemson
There’s really only one tricky game on Clemson’s schedule, a monumental clash at Notre Dame on November 7th. Aside from that, Virginia Tech will offer the toughest challenge but I still have them as 2 touchdown favorites there. It would be a total shock to not see Trevor Lawrence’s squad at the top of the ACC come December.
Alabama
Alabama will be breaking in a new starting quarterback in Mac Jones, but like LSU, Alabama drew a somewhat favorable schedule from the East that adds Kentucky and Missouri to their slate. They figure to be at least touchdown favorites in every game except their trip to Baton Rouge.
Notre Dame
If a full season is actually played this fall, no team will be more interesting to watch than Notre Dame as they play a full conference slate for the first time in their history. Buoyed by an experienced offensive line, they’re easily the second best team in the ACC. They have the aforementioned game with Clemson at home, and it is quite likely that they’ll face off again in the ACC Championship in December.
Florida
For the first time in a few years, Florida is the definitive favorite to win the SEC East, not Georgia. The Gators have a front loaded schedule that features games against Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia before midseason- if they manage to make it to November at the top of the division, they should be able to make it to the SEC title game.
Texas
For the second year in a row, I’m picking Texas over Oklahoma to win the Big 12. The ‘Horns have one of the most experienced QBs in the country and return much of their skill position players around Ehlinger. Their season will be defined by a tough 3 game stretch against Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Appalachian State
App State’s placement is definitely inflated by the lack of Big Ten and Pac-12 teams, but the Mountaineers are once again one of the most underrated teams in the country. They’ll be massive favorites in every game except their showdown with Louisiana.
Georgia
This figures to be the weakest Georgia team in a few years, as they break in a new quarterback and return just 33% of their offensive production from last year. It’s possible they’re one of the best teams this year and go 6-4, given 5 of their first 6 games are against teams on this list.
Auburn
Baylor
UCF
Texas A&M
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Oklahoma State
Kentucky
Memphis
Florida Atlantic
Cincinnati
Louisville
Iowa State
Marshall