2020 Preseason College Football Preseason Top 25
Ordinarily around this time I’d have done a significant amount of work preparing for the college football season, but COVID has obviously thrown a wrench in that. I’m still quite skeptical that any meaningful college football is going to be played this fall, but the season is now close enough that I might as well preview the football that is scheduled to be played.
To start off, here’s my model’s preseason top 25 for the teams that are currently scheduled to play fall football. I made some minor tweaks to my model over the offseason, but it fundamentally hasn’t changed that much in recent years. While it may diverge a bit early in the season, in the long run my model tends to converge towards well-known predictive systems like SP+ and Sagarin which are strong predictors of betting lines.
LSU
LSU presents an interesting case for my system. 2019 LSU finished the year as the highest rated team in years, so despite the tremendous amount of talent they lost, they remain #1. The 10 game conference schedule is actually not that bad for the Tigers, as they play the 3 weakest teams in the East in Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
Clemson
There’s really only one tricky game on Clemson’s schedule, a monumental clash at Notre Dame on November 7th. Aside from that, Virginia Tech will offer the toughest challenge but I still have them as 2 touchdown favorites there. It would be a total shock to not see Trevor Lawrence’s squad at the top of the ACC come December.
Alabama
Alabama will be breaking in a new starting quarterback in Mac Jones, but like LSU, Alabama drew a somewhat favorable schedule from the East that adds Kentucky and Missouri to their slate. They figure to be at least touchdown favorites in every game except their trip to Baton Rouge.
Notre Dame
If a full season is actually played this fall, no team will be more interesting to watch than Notre Dame as they play a full conference slate for the first time in their history. Buoyed by an experienced offensive line, they’re easily the second best team in the ACC. They have the aforementioned game with Clemson at home, and it is quite likely that they’ll face off again in the ACC Championship in December.
Florida
For the first time in a few years, Florida is the definitive favorite to win the SEC East, not Georgia. The Gators have a front loaded schedule that features games against Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia before midseason- if they manage to make it to November at the top of the division, they should be able to make it to the SEC title game.
Texas
For the second year in a row, I’m picking Texas over Oklahoma to win the Big 12. The ‘Horns have one of the most experienced QBs in the country and return much of their skill position players around Ehlinger. Their season will be defined by a tough 3 game stretch against Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Appalachian State
App State’s placement is definitely inflated by the lack of Big Ten and Pac-12 teams, but the Mountaineers are once again one of the most underrated teams in the country. They’ll be massive favorites in every game except their showdown with Louisiana.
Georgia
This figures to be the weakest Georgia team in a few years, as they break in a new quarterback and return just 33% of their offensive production from last year. It’s possible they’re one of the best teams this year and go 6-4, given 5 of their first 6 games are against teams on this list.
Auburn
Baylor
UCF
Texas A&M
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Oklahoma State
Kentucky
Memphis
Florida Atlantic
Cincinnati
Louisville
Iowa State
Marshall