Week 12 College Football Playoff Picture

With only two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is becoming much clearer. It’s hard to put precise estimates on the probability that each team makes the playoff, as it requires making some estimates about what resumes the playoff committee will select. The committee has only been faced with one legitimate decision (2017 Alabama vs. Ohio State) in the 7 years of the playoff, so it’s not like college basketball bracketology where we have quite a large dataset to draw on to make these estimates.

The table below is my best guess for how the committee would rank the possible resumes. The column on the right shows my model’s probability that this particular resume ends up existing after the conference title games. Note that many of these scenarios are mutually exclusive with each other- for example, we can’t have a 13-0 Georgia and an 11-2 LSU. An asterisk next to a team indicates that they are a conference champion in the scenario in question.

The 9 teams who I’ll discuss below all have yes/no markets on their odds to make the playoff. I think that the market is assigning some probability to a team not on this list (Utah? Oregon? Alabama?) making the playoff, I’ve lumped them into the “other” category. The table below shows what the betting markets imply each team’s odds of making the playoff are.

SEC

Georgia is in by far the best position of any team. They would have to lose twice to be in legitimate danger of missing the playoff. The most likely scenario in which they’re not in the field features them losing to Kentucky as a 21 point favorite and then again to LSU as a 10 point favorite.

Tennessee is in a very interesting position. The Volunteers were -115 to make the playoff before losing to Georgia. I think I missed a big opportunity in betting “yes” at that number as their odds have only gotten better even since the Georgia loss. They are quite likely to win out, I give them an 83% chance of beating both South Carolina and Vanderbilt. If that happens, they’re quite likely to make the field but do not control their own destiny. They need at least two of USC, LSU and TCU to lose a game. Luckily for the Vols, that is quite likely to happen.

LSU is in a pretty simple position. The Tigers are almost surely in if they win out and have almost no chance if they take another loss. I make them -13 against UAB, -10 against Texas A&M and +10 against Georgia in the SEC title game.

Big Ten

The single most important game left in the playoff hunt is the Michigan/Ohio State game in Columbus on November 26th. My projected line on the game is now Ohio State -6.5, a far cry from the Ohio State -14 or so it would’ve been a few months ago. The winner of the game will be a substantial favorite (somewhere between 2 and 3 touchdowns) against the Big Ten West champion in the conference title game. 

I view the Wolverines and the Buckeyes’ resumes pretty similarly. Both teams are locks at 13-0, likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl as the 2 seed. If either team wins the Big Ten East and loses a fluke game to Purdue or Iowa in the Big Ten title game, I think they’re still quite likely to get in. At 11-1 with a loss to the other, I think they fall behind 12-1 USC, 12-1 Big 12 champion TCU and 11-1 Tennessee in the pecking order but ahead of 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 UNC.

Big 12/Pac-12/ACC

TCU controls their own destiny. They’re obviously a lock if they’re undefeated. A 12-1 Horned Frogs team that wins the Big 12 (with the loss to say, Baylor) looks a lot better than a 12-1 team that loses in the conference title game. I think this weekend’s game with Baylor is a coin flip, I make the Frogs -9 against Iowa State, and make them small underdogs to Kansas State in a potential rematch in the conference title game.

I think that USC’s odds are quite good if they finish 12-1. However, it’s a gauntlet to get there. This weekend’s game against UCLA is pretty much a coin flip. I think they’re -4 or so at home against Notre Dame next week, and then the Pac-12 championship game against Utah or Oregon is also a coin flip. A 12-1 USC is not a lock for the playoff (especially if say, LSU wins out) but they’d be looking quite good.

Clemson and North Carolina are both near the bottom of the pecking order. Clemson has two wins over current top 25 teams (Florida State and NC State) and North Carolina has none. I think that a 12-1 Clemson is marginally better positioned than a 12-1 UNC because of this, but both teams fall below an 11-1 Ohio State or Michigan in my eyes. Clemson has around a 70% chance of making it to the ACC title game undefeated and UNC has a 55% chance. I think that the Tigers should be about -4 or so when these two teams meet in Charlotte for the conference title on December 3rd.