Final 2024 College Football Bracketology

We enter Selection Sunday with significant uncertainty over the last at-large spot. I’m somewhat confident that SMU will get the last spot in the Playoff over Alabama, but not certain. One interesting note- immediately after the ACC title game ended, Alabama was +650 to make the playoff and SMU was -1000 to make the playoff. Within minutes, the line had moved all the way to Alabama +260 and SMU -360. I think the new line is about fair- it implies a 75% chance of SMU in the playoff.

Without further ado, here’s my final playoff projection.

1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)- Rose Bowl

2 Georgia vs. (7 Notre Dame/10 Indiana)- Sugar Bowl

3 Boise State vs. (6 Penn State/11 SMU)- Fiesta Bowl

4 Arizona State vs. (5 Texas/12 Clemson)- Peach Bowl

Oregon and Georgia are locked into the 1 and 2 seeds. Here is how I see the probability of the other seeds:

Final at-large: SMU 75%, Alabama 25%

3 Seed: Boise State 80%, Arizona State 18%, Clemson 2%

First Round Bye: Boise State 95%, Arizona State 85%, Clemson 20%

5 Seed: Texas 65%, Notre Dame 20%, Penn State 15%

6 Seed: Penn State 42%, Notre Dame 30%, Texas 28%

7 Seed: Notre Dame 50%, Penn State 35%, Ohio State 10%, Texas 5%

8 Seed: Ohio State 90%, Penn State 8%, Texas 2%

9 Seed: Tennessee 100%

10 Seed: Indiana 95%, SMU 5%

11 Seed: SMU 45%, Clemson 35%, Alabama 15%, Indiana 5%

12 Seed: Clemson 65%, SMU 25%, Alabama 10%

Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ll be back with picks for bowl games later in the week.