College Football Bowl Game Picks 2024
These will likely be my last picks of the college football season. I’m extremely pleased with how this season has gone- my futures bets were excellent this season, highlighted by my 30/1 Indiana to make the playoff bet. This is going to go down as my most profitable season ever, surpassing 2020. I learned this year that I have a lot more edge betting futures than individual games- there are fewer people betting futures, so it’s just a less efficient marketplace. I also had a great season against the spread- I finished the regular season first out of 27 computer models against the spread in all games.
My focus will turn to college basketball for the next few months, although I’ll have a little bit more college football content this season. I’ll aim to publish a preseason top 25 for 2025 around the time of the national title game.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Week 13: -0.2 units
Week 14: +8.1 units
Week 15: -2 units
Preseason and In-Season Futures: +36.84 units
Total: +41.18 units
SMU @ Penn State (December 21st, 11 AM Central)
My model has been high on SMU all season and continues to be now- I have them 7th in my ratings headed into the playoff. They suffered from some boneheaded mistakes against Clemson but were definitely the better team on a down to down basis. Penn State has been a clear step behind the elite teams all year and is yet to beat a team as talented as SMU. This seems like the most likely first round playoff upset to me.
SMU +9 (2 units)
SMU ML +260 (1 unit)
Tennessee @ Ohio State (December 21st, 7 PM Central)
Ohio State was the top team in my model by a large margin headed into the Michigan game. I still don’t fully understand how they looked so bad against Michigan- missing multiple short field goals certainly doesn’t help- but I think they have the highest upside of any team in the country. Tennessee is the worst P5 team in the playoff and is less talented than Ohio State at every position. I think the Buckeyes should roll here.
Ohio State -7 -110 (2 units)
Rutgers vs. Kansas State (Rate Bowl: December 26th, 4:30 PM Central)
Kansas State was just a few bounces away from a really special season- my model liked them a lot in the second half of the year and I’ll likely be picking them to win the Big 12 in 2025. Rutgers, on the other hand, is much worse than their record. Their win over Washington was the most fluky result of the season, and they piled up wins against the dregs of the Big Ten. Kansas State is the vastly better team here.
Kansas State -6.5 -110 (2 units)
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th, 8 PM Central)
I bet a good bit on Arkansas State over 5.5 wins in the preseason, and I was very lucky to hit that bet. QB Jaylen Raynor regressed significantly in his sophomore season and the Red Wolves needed a very generous call to beat FCS Central Arkansas. Bowling Green, on the other hand, was the best team in the MAC this year. They lost a close game to Miami (OH) that cost them a chance to play for the MAC title. Before that game, they won 5 consecutive conference games, all by double digits. I think the Falcons keep rolling here.
Bowling Green -6.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Birmingham Bowl: December 27th, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia Tech finished the regular season 24th in my model, around 10 or 15 spots higher than where most other people have them. Both of Georgia Tech’s QBs (Haynes King and Aaron Philo) have announced they’re returning for 2025, and I expect to see the Yellow Jackets in the preseason top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade. Vanderbilt had a special season but their lack of depth showed when they faded down the stretch.
Georgia Tech -2.5 -110 (2 units)
Michigan vs. Alabama (ReliaQuest Bowl: December 31st, 11 AM Central)
The last few weeks of the season were massive for Michigan- they landed Bryce Underwood and beat Ohio State. They even jumped into the top 25 of my ratings after the Ohio State win. Alabama, on the other hand, could be checked out here after failing to make the playoff. Jalen Milroe has announced he’ll play in this game, but I’d be surprised if Alabama brings out the whole playbook here.
Michigan +11.5 -110 (2 units)
Memphis vs. West Virginia (Frisco Bowl: December 17th, 8 PM Central)
I like betting against teams going through coaching changes in bowl season. West Virginia is in a total state of flux- Rich Rodridguez is coming back to Morgantown and looking to implement a very different offensive system than what Neal Brown ran. Memphis, on the other hand, should be amped up for this game- they’re capping off a great season and sending off graduating QB Seth Henigan, who holds every passing record in school history.
Memphis -1 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th, 4:30 PM Central)
James Madison had a weird year. I saw them in person when they thrashed North Carolina back in September- they looked like the best team in the G5 in that game. They followed that up by laying an egg against ULM a few weeks later. I still think they’re incredibly talented, and they should handily beat a WKU team that has a lot of guys in the portal.
James Madison -6.5 (1 unit)
Notre Dame over 1.5 playoff wins +160 (2 units)
I’ve been high on Notre Dame for a while- loyal readers will remember I bet on the Irish to win the national title at 40/1 odds back in October. They should beat Indiana comfortably, and then have to face Georgia. Notre Dame is actually favored in that game (the lookahead line is Notre Dame -2 right now) and my model would favor them by a bit more than that if Carson Beck is hurt. I think that the Irish have a good shot at their first national title in my lifetime.