College Football Picks Week 9
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Season Total: -18.19 units
The end of Fresno State/Nevada was unfortunate, Fresno was up 8 and Nevada got a late TD but missed the two point conversion, costing me on Fresno -3.5. I also was very wrong on UAB/Rice, but made up for it in Pitt/Clemson.
Florida State @ Clemson
This will be the third week in a row I’m betting against Clemson (2-0 so far) although this pick is almost as much pro-FSU as anti-Clemson. I was as big a hater of Florida State as anyone else preseason and I will likely cash my under season win total on the ‘Noles. They have been much improved in the last few games though, their offensive line was a complete joke at the beginning of the season and is now a bit better. Their close game with Notre Dame in week 1 has gotten better with age as well. This line should definitely be single digits.
Florida State +10 -115 (2 units)
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
One thing I’ve been harping on all year is that the SEC East is much worse than people think it is. I’ve been betting against Missouri (which has worked great, they’re 0-7 ATS) and South Carolina (worked less great) all year but Kentucky is another team that is overpriced. Mississippi State is a top 25 caliber squad. Kentucky had three very questionable September games against Missouri, Chattanooga and South Carolina that people have wiped from their memory, but my model hasn’t forgotten.
Mississippi State +1 -110 (2 units)
Iowa @ Wisconsin
This is a massive game in the Big Ten West race, Wisconsin is very much in contention for the division if they win this, and it’s Iowa’s division to lose if they win. The total is also currently 37, the lowest Power Five over/under I can remember seeing. The public forgot about Wisconsin after their 1-3 start but they have been very solid since, blowing out Illinois and Purdue. Their defense and run game are both top 10 nationally. Iowa’s early season success was propelled by unsustainable turnover luck and I think they’ll struggle to score in what figures to be a rockfight.
Wisconsin -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNLV @ Nevada
UNLV has not won a game since they beat Nevada in Reno on Thanksgiving weekend 2019. It’s been a pretty unfortunate run for the Rebels who are 0-5 in one score games this year, including close shaves with good UTSA and Fresno State teams. They definitely deserve to have won a game or two by now. I am still lower on Nevada than the consensus, their QB play is obviously phenomenal but the rest of the offense is not really there.
UNLV +20 -110 (1 unit)
I also like to keep an eye on futures throughout the year, normally there is not much of interest. I am intrigued by Ohio State’s national championship odds though. They have pulled almost even with Georgia in my ratings and are the clear favorites to win the Big Ten. It is hard for me to square the market for OSU to make the playoff (Yes -155, No +135) with these national title odds, they would be close to a pick’em against Alabama, no more than 4 point underdogs against Georgia and significant favorites over anyone else.
Ohio State to win National Championship +550 (2 units)
Speaking of OSU’s, I think that Oregon State is one of the more underpriced teams in the country. The Pac-12 North will come down to their end of year rivalry game with Oregon, where I think they’d only be around 7.5 point underdogs. To win the Pac-12, they just need to go 3-1 in their 4 other games and then beat a mediocre Pac-12 South champion. There’s some small value in them to win the conference at 9/1 odds.
Oregon State to win Pac-12 +900 (0.5 units)