College Football Picks Week 10
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Season Total: -16.47 units
A horrendous backdoor cover for Clemson who returned a fumble for a touchdown as time expired, causing us to push Florida State +10. Other than that, another solid week with Mississippi State and Wisconsin covering easily.
Tennessee @ Kentucky
I am betting against Kentucky once again here. The Wildcats are being propped up in the polls by their win against Florida. The Wildcats still had a very shaky September with close wins against Chattanooga, Missouri and South Carolina and I think that all 7 teams in the SEC West are better than them. Tennessee has found a serviceable quarterback in Hendon Hooker and should make a bowl game. I’m missing the best number here as this opened at Kentucky -5 but there’s still good value here.
Tennessee +3 -115 (2 units)
Michigan State @ Purdue
Every year there’s one or two teams in the country who have a massive gap between their true strength as measured by predictive metrics and their ranking in the polls. Michigan State epitomizes that, they are extremely lucky to be 8-0 (6-2 would be pretty fair) and have won tons of close games. I think these teams are actually pretty close to even, Purdue’s offense has shown some good stuff in October and this is easily their best team since 2018. The public is going to be all over Michigan State here but I like Purdue, it is a shame I missed this line when it opened at 3.
Purdue +2.5 -105 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Miami has had a ton of close games this season and could easily be either 2-6 or 6-2. They’ve underperformed their preseason ranking by quite a bit, but still have lots to play for with Manny Diaz’s job in serious jeopardy and the ACC Coastal title still in play. Georgia Tech has had their best season since moving away from Paul Johnson’s flexbone offense but the talent gap between them and Miami is immense.
Miami -9 -110 (1 unit)
North Texas @ Southern Mississippi
I believe that I have bet on North Texas games (both for and against) more than anyone else this season. This is also a situation where the team is playing for their coach’s job, Seth Littrell very nearly got the Kansas State job a few years ago but is now a few losses away from being out of a job. However, they should be able to take care of business against a Southern Miss team that is yet to win an FBS game this year.
North Texas -5.5 -110 (1 unit)