Bracketology 3/14/2024

Pretty much every bubble team in action yesterday won. The most notable results were in the Big 12 where Kansas State and Cincinnati both started the day on the fringe of the conversation and picked up nice wins over teams in the field. Both still have work to do, but Kansas State in particular will be close to the field with a win over Iowa State today.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Duke

4: Illinois, Kansas, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Gonzaga

7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Clemson

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic

9: Nebraska, Texas, TCU, Seton Hall

10: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Colorado State, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston

14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland

15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, Norfolk State

16: Stetson, South Dakota State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Kansas State

Next Four Out: Villanova, Providence, Ohio State, Princeton

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Memphis, Utah, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida

Moving In: Sam Houston State, Montana State

Moving Out: Louisiana Tech, Montana

Bracketology 3/13/2024

The first major conference bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, with TCU, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Villanova, Providence and Kansas State all in action. With the exception of TCU, who is still probably avoiding Dayton with a win, all of those other teams face must-wins. Wake Forest would move out of my field with a loss to Notre Dame and every other team on that list is currently outside of my field.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky

4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Clemson

7: Gonzaga, Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas

9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall

10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston

14: UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate

15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana

16: Norfolk State, Stetson, (South Dakota State/Grambling State), (Longwood/Wagner)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova

Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State

Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon

Moving In: Wagner

Moving Out: Merrimack

Bracketology 3/12/2024

The biggest news of Monday was James Madison locking up their bid by winning the Sun Belt tournament. Despite a 31-3 record, I think James Madison would’ve been on the outside looking in with a loss to Arkansas State, but I’ll happy to see the Dukes in the tournament.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky

4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Gonzaga, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson

7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, St. Mary’s

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas

9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall

10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate

15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana

16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (Stetson/South Dakota State), (Grambling State/Longwood)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova

Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State

Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon

Bracketology 3/11/2024

Nearly every team on the seed list played over the weekend and changes abound up and down the bracket. At the top, North Carolina won on the road at Duke and Tennessee lost to Kentucky, leading to the Heels taking over as the last 1 seed. On the bubble, New Mexico, Villanova, Iowa, Mississippi State and Providence all lost, opening the door for some other teams. I have very reluctantly moved Wake Forest and Pittsburgh in as my last two teams in, but I don’t feel great about it. They are likely to match up in the ACC quarterfinals and that looks like a must-win game for both.

Bracketology 3/9/2024

Today is the biggest bubble day of the year- nearly every team along the cut line will play today. Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Villanova, who hosts Creighton- the Wildcats have an opportunity for a huge Q1-A win, but would be staring down a 15-loss at-large case with a loss- something the committee heavily frowns on.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: Auburn, BYU, Dayton, Wisconsin

6: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Boise State

8: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, UNLV

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/8/2024

Utah lost on the road to Oregon State last night which might be it for their at-large chances. The Utes looked to be on a path to a protected seed at New Year’s but have done nothing of note since then. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Colorado won an important game at Oregon and looks more likely than not to make the field now.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Dayton

6: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, UNLV

Moving In: Drake

Moving Out: Utah

Bracketology 3/7/2024

Iowa State continues to build an impressive resume, and got another Q1-A win last night by beating BYU at home. The Cyclones look increasingly firm on the 2 line. As you might remember, the last time they got a 2 seed was in 2001, when they lost to 15 seed Hampton in one of the greatest tournament games of all time.

On the bubble, Michigan State and Seton Hall look increasingly safe after home wins over Northwestern and Villanova. Utah is the only bubble team in action tonight, most bubble teams just have one regular season game remaining on Saturday.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Washington State

6: Dayton, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/6/2024

Wake Forest looked to be on their way to the tournament after they knocked off Duke at home but they’re 0-3 since and lost at home to Georgia Tech last night. They have a lot of work to do to make the field now, starting with a home game against Clemson this weekend.

We had a lot of movement on the 4 line with Illinois, Alabama and San Diego State all losing last night. I’ve bumped Kentucky back up to the final protected seed this morning.

1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, BYU, Auburn, Washington State

6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Florida

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Gonzaga, Nebraska

9: Boise State, Colorado State, TCU, Texas

10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

11: Villanova, Seton Hall, (St. John’s/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Richmond

Also Considered: Princeton, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

Moving In: Stetson

Moving Out: Eastern Kentucky

Women’s Bracketology 3/4/2024

I was very surprised when the committee put Virginia Tech as their last 1 seed in the top 16 reveal on Thursday. Don’t get me wrong- the Hokies have had a good season. I would’ve thought that UCLA or Texas would’ve gotten that spot. It doesn’t matter now because Virginia Tech is 0-2 since the reveal and falls all the way to a 3 seed in this update.

1: South Carolina, Stanford, Ohio State, UCLA

2: Iowa, Texas, USC, LSU

3: Virginia Tech, Connecticut, NC State, Indiana

4: Notre Dame, Oregon State, Colorado, Gonzaga

5: Oklahoma, Utah, Creighton, Kansas State

6: Baylor, Syracuse, Louisville, UNLV

7: West Virginia, Michigan State, Nebraska, Duke

8: Alabama, Marquette, Princeton, Ole Miss

9: North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee, Washington State

10: Kansas, Florida State, Penn State, Mississippi State

11: Maryland, (Vanderbilt/Columbia), Richmond, (Villanova/Michigan)

12: Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State

13: Fairfield, Drake, Toledo, Stony Brook

14: Eastern Washington, Marshall, North Texas, Jackson State

15: Chattanooga, Norfolk State, California Baptist, Lamar

16: Maine, Hawai’i, (Sacred Heart/Boston University), (High Point/UT-Martin)

First Four Out: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Auburn, Middle Tennessee

Next Four Out: Arizona, Green Bay, California, Washington

Men’s Bracketology 3/4/2024

Memphis was left for dead a few weeks ago but is making a charge back towards the field. They need to win at FAU on Sunday to have a chance, but if they can pull that off they’ll go into the AAC tournament right on the bubble.

1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Creighton, Baylor, Duke

4: Illinois, Alabama, San Diego State, Clemson

5: Kentucky, BYU, Auburn, Washington State

6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Utah State

7: St. Mary’s, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

8: Northwestern, Florida, Boise State, Gonzaga

9: Nebraska, Texas, Colorado State, TCU

10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

11: Villanova, Seton Hall, Indiana State, (St. John’s/Colorado)

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Eastern Kentucky)

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Providence, Iowa

Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, South Florida, Memphis, Richmond

Also Considered: Princeton, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Grand Canyon, Oregon, McNeese State

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/3/2024

The bubble got a bit murkier yesterday with some of my last few teams in the field (Wake Forest, Providence, New Mexico) losing. I’ve moved the Demon Deacons and the Friars out of the field, and St. John’s and Colorado replace them.

At the top of the bracket, Tennessee is a 1 seed for the first time all year after their win at Alabama. I think the last 1 seed is the Vols’ to lose now, but Arizona and North Carolina are both very much in play for it.

Bracketology 3/2/2024

I feel quite good about the first 66 teams in my bracket. Unfortunately I have no clue what to do with the last 2 spots. For now, I have given them to Villanova (despite a 2-3 record in Q3) and Utah (despite an 8-10 record in Q1 and Q2 and playing horrible basketball since Christmas). The first 10 teams out of the field all have their chances to climb into the bracket in the next two weeks and those final spots are very much up for grabs.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Marquette, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Baylor, Duke

4: Alabama, San Diego State, Kentucky, Auburn

5: Clemson, Illinois, South Carolina, BYU

6: Wisconsin, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State

7: Utah State, Dayton, Nevada, Boise State

8: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU

9: Colorado State, Texas, Michigan State, Northwestern

10: Nebraska, Mississippi State, Virginia, Gonzaga

11: Seton Hall, Providence, James Madison, (New Mexico/Wake Forest)

12: (Villanova/Utah), Indiana State, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Akron, High Point, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, Norfolk State, (Merrimack/Eastern Kentucky), (Grambling State/North Dakota)

First Four Out: St. John’s, Colorado, Texas A&M, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Princeton, Iowa, Grand Canyon

Also Considered: South Florida, Syracuse, Ohio State, Butler, McNeese State, Drake, Oregon, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Utah

Moving Out: Texas A&M

Bracketology 2/26/2024

After some strong performances in recent weeks, it was a disastrous weekend on the bubble as 8 of my first 10 teams out of the field lost on Saturday. This led to Villanova actually climbing into the field despite a loss, as they took Ole Miss’ spot after the Rebels lost at home to South Carolina.

There were some beneficiaries to the bubble chaos over the weekend- James Madison’s at-large chances looked dead after their third loss in conference play but I have them as an 11 seed after their 8th win in a row. Colorado is also much closer to the field than they have been after a big win over Utah.

Bracketology 2/24/2024

Washington State is the big winner of the last two days as they picked up one of the best wins of the season on the road at Arizona. The Cougars have vaulted all the way up to a 5 seed and are a lock for their first tournament appearance since 2008.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette

3: Alabama, Iowa State, Duke, Creighton

4: Baylor, Auburn, San Diego State, Wisconsin

5: Clemson, Illinois, Washington State, Texas Tech

6: BYU, Dayton, South Carolina, Florida

7: Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Kentucky, Colorado State

8: St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Boise State

9: TCU, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico

10: Texas, Nebraska, Northwestern, Providence

11: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, (Gonzaga/Texas A&M), (Seton Hall/Wake Forest)

12: Grand Canyon, James Madison, Indiana State, Princeton

13: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Quinnipiac, High Point

15: Charleston, Colgate, Eastern Washington, Morehead State

16: Oakland, Southern, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Eastern Kentucky/North Dakota)

First Four Out: Villanova, Butler, Utah, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Princeton, Drake, McNeese State, Colorado

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oregon, St. John’s, Syracuse, South Florida, Rutgers

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 2/22/2024

There’s some really strange resumes around the bubble this year that I don’t know what to do with. Consider Texas A&M (6-5 in Q1 and 2-4 in Q3???) who has lost to Vanderbilt and Arkansas in the last week. There’s also Wake Forest (a dismal 5-9 against Q1 and Q2, but predictive metrics and a NET in the 20s). We don’t have a lot of teams like these two in the historical data set to know what the committee will do with them.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette

3: Alabama, Iowa State, Duke, Creighton

4: Baylor, Auburn, San Diego State, Wisconsin

5: Clemson, Illinois, Texas Tech, BYU

6: Dayton, South Carolina, Florida, Utah State

7: Kentucky, Colorado State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic

8: Washington State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Boise State

9: TCU, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico

10: Texas, Grand Canyon, Nebraska, Northwestern

11: Providence, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, (Gonzaga/Texas A&M)

12: (Seton Hall/Wake Forest), James Madison, Indiana State, Princeton

13: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Quinnipiac, High Point

15: Charleston, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Morehead State

16: Oakland, Southern, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Eastern Kentucky/North Dakota)

First Four Out: Villanova, Butler, Utah, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Princeton, Drake, McNeese State, Colorado

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Syracuse, South Florida, Rutgers, Oregon, SMU

Moving In: Wake Forest

Moving Out: Butler

Women’s Bracketology 2/19/2024

The race for the 1 seeds is heating up. I was surprised to see Colorado as a 1 seed in the committee’s early reveal on Thursday, but I’ve dropped them down to the 2 line after a weekend loss to Utah. This opens up two spots on the top line for Big Ten teams, as Iowa and Ohio State are now both #1 seeds.

I’ll update my women’s projection again in early March, and will look to update it weekly from there until Selection Sunday.

Bracketology 2/19/2024

The dream of a six bid Mountain West continues to become more of a reality. The committee showed a lot of respect to the league by giving San Diego State a 4 seed in their mid-season reveal on Saturday. Nevada was the most questionable of the six potential teams and they picked up an important comeback road win at UNLV over the weekend. Surprising as it may be, it looks like the Mountain West will send more teams than the Big East or ACC to this year’s tournament.

Bracketology 2/17/2024

The Selection Committee will announce their preliminary top 16 teams today. I feel reasonably confident that all of my top 15 teams will be included in the list but the last spot is a bit of a wild card. I was debating between two teams that played a fantastic matchup in last year’s Elite Eight- Creighton and San Diego State- but ultimately went with the Bluejays. Buckle in for what figures to be a great Saturday of college hoops.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Baylor, Auburn, Alabama

4: Duke, Dayton, Illinois, Creighton

5: San Diego State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, BYU

6: Utah State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Oklahoma

7: Florida Atlantic, Clemson, TCU, Colorado State

8: Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. Mary’s, Washington State

9: Virginia, New Mexico, Texas, Northwestern

10: Nebraska, Florida, Butler, Texas A&M

11: Indiana State, Providence, Grand Canyon, Boise State

12: (Utah/Nevada), (Mississippi State/Gonzaga), Princeton, James Madison

13: Samford, McNeese State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington

14: Morehead State, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont

15: Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac, High Point, Oakland

16: Colgate, Southern, (South Dakota State/Eastern Kentucky), (Norfolk State/Merrimack)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Drake, Cincinnati, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Syracuse

Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Princeton, James Madison, Oregon, Memphis, Xavier, Colorado, Virginia Tech

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 9

SEC: 9

Big Ten: 6

Mountain West: 6

Big East: 5

ACC: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/15/2024

Iowa State is the best team in the country that no one is talking about. The Cyclones have their best team of the KenPom era and picked up their 5th Q1-A win of the season at Cincinnati on Tuesday. An 8-3 record in the Big 12 is no joke, and they’ve now passed Kansas for my last 2 seed.

On the bubble, Indiana State took a horrible Q4 loss at home to Illinois State this week. I was feeling quite good about the Sycamores’ at-large chances but they would be ill advised to lose again before Arch Madness.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Baylor, Auburn, Alabama

4: Duke, Dayton, Illinois, Creighton

5: San Diego State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, BYU

6: Utah State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Oklahoma

7: Florida Atlantic, Clemson, TCU, Colorado State

8: Michigan State, Northwestern, New Mexico, Ole Miss

9: St. Mary’s, Virginia, Washington State, Texas

10: Nebraska, Utah, Florida, Butler

11: Texas A&M, Indiana State, Providence, Grand Canyon

12: (Boise State/Mississippi State), (Nevada/Gonzaga), Princeton, James Madison

13: Samford, McNeese State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington

14: Morehead State, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont

15: Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac, High Point, Oakland

16: Colgate, Southern, (South Dakota State/Eastern Kentucky), (Norfolk State/Merrimack)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Drake, Cincinnati, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Syracuse

Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Colorado, Princeton, James Madison, Oregon, Xavier, Virginia Tech

Moving In: Gonzaga

Moving Out: Cincinnati

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 9

SEC: 9

Big Ten: 6

Mountain West: 6

Big East: 5

ACC: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/12/2024

College hoops is built on these February weekends where big games happen up and down the seed list. Some notable winners this weekend include Florida, who demolished Auburn, and Gonzaga, who got their first Q1 of the season at Kentucky. Both teams have had predictive metrics much better than their resumes all season and took big steps to tournament bids this weekend.

More great games await this week. Wake Forest is another bubble team that has stellar computer numbers and little to show for it on the court. The Demon Deacons will get a chance to pick up their biggest win of the season at Duke tomorrow night.