Bracketology 2/22/2023

Not many teams in college basketball are hotter than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma on the road and are now 6-2 in their last 8. If they can go 2-1 in down the stretch and pick up a win in the Big 12 tournament I think they'll make the field.

There are some big bubble games tonight, highlighted by a late night clash between New Mexico and Boise State, two teams right near the cutline.

Moving In: Toledo

Moving Out: Kent State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 8

ACC: 5

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/20/2023

The committee revealed their top 16 teams on Saturday. I had 15/16 teams correct- I had Connecticut instead of Indiana, the Hoosiers were my 17th team. I was pretty surprised to not see Connecticut- the committee seems to value predictive metrics for some teams (like Houston) but not for others (like Connecticut).

I’ve finally moved North Carolina out of the field after their loss to NC State. The Tar Heels are still without a Q1 win and will need to convert one of their two remaining opportunities at one- home dates against Virginia and Duke.

1: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue

2: Texas, Arizona, UCLA, Baylor

3: Virginia, Kansas State, Indiana, Tennessee

4: Iowa State, Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier

5: Connecticut, Miami (FL), St. Mary’s, Northwestern

6: Creighton, San Diego State, Providence, TCU

7: Michigan State, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois

8: Maryland, Arkansas, Duke, Texas A&M

9: Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Auburn, Nevada

10: Memphis, NC State, Rutgers, Oklahoma State

11: Pittsburgh, Mississippi State, (Boise State/USC), (Wisconsin/West Virginia)

12: Oral Roberts, Charleston, Drake, Kent State

13: Utah Valley, VCU, Liberty, Southern Miss

14: UC Irvine, Yale, Iona, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, Samford, Colgate, UNC Asheville

16: Youngstown State, Texas A&M CC, (Morehead State/Howard), (Alcorn State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: North Texas, Utah State, Oral Roberts, Arizona State

Next Four Out: North Carolina, Charleston, New Mexico, Penn State

Also Considered: Michigan, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Clemson, Oklahoma, Drake, Oregon, Wake Forest

Moving In: Mississippi State, Yale, Texas A&M CC

Moving Out: North Carolina, Princeton, Northwestern State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 8

ACC: 5

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/18/2023

No team has moved faster through the bracket in recent weeks than New Mexico. The Lobos started the season far from relevance but surged to a 14-0 start. At 19-3 they were a comfortable 7 seed in my bracket but plunged out of the field with a 4 game losing streak, capped by a disastrous home loss to Wyoming. A pair of games against the class of the MWC (Boise State and San Diego State) awaits- they need at least a split to stay in the conversation.

1: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue

2: UCLA, Baylor, Texas, Arizona

3: Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga, Xavier

4: Connecticut, Kansas State, Marquette, Iowa State

5: Indiana, Miami (FL), San Diego State. St. Mary’s

6: Maryland, Illinois, Auburn, Northwestern

7: TCU, Michigan State, Creighton, NC State

8: Duke, Providence, Iowa, Oklahoma State

9: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, Nevada, Missouri

10: Memphis, Rutgers, West Virginia, Boise State

11: Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, (Wisconsin/Kentucky), (USC/North Carolina)

12: Oral Roberts, Charleston, VCU, Southern Miss

13: Drake, Utah Valley, Liberty, Kent State

14: UC Irvine, Princeton, Iona, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, Samford, Colgate, UNC Asheville

16: Youngstown State, Northwestern State, (Morehead State/Howard), (Alcorn State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Clemson, New Mexico, North Texas

Next Four Out: Utah State, Penn State, Oregon, Seton Hall

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Oral Roberts, Charleston, Florida, Oklahoma, Santa Clara, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt

Moving In: Princeton

Moving Out: Yale

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/16/2023

There may not be a hotter team in college basketball than Texas A&M. The Aggies had a disastrous non-conference schedule that included Q4 losses to Murray State and Wofford. Since then, they’ve rattled off an 11-2 SEC record, highlighted by a sweep of Auburn. They’re now in my last four byes, and if they keep playing the way they have they’ll be out of bubble trouble in no time.

1: Alabama, Purdue, Houston, Kansas

2: Baylor, Arizona, Texas, UCLA

3: Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga, Xavier

4: Connecticut, Kansas State, Marquette, Iowa State

5: Indiana, Miami (FL), San Diego State. St. Mary’s

6: Illinois, Auburn, Maryland, Northwestern

7: TCU, Michigan State, Creighton, Florida Atlantic

8: NC State, Duke, Providence, Oklahoma State

9: Arkansas, Nevada, Iowa, Missouri

10: Rutgers, West Virginia, Boise State, Memphis

11: Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, (Wisconsin/Kentucky), (USC/North Carolina)

12: VCU, Oral Roberts, Charleston, Southern Miss

13: Drake, Utah Valley, Liberty, Kent State

14: UC Irvine, Yale, Iona, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, Samford, Colgate, UNC Asheville

16: Youngstown State, Northwestern State, (Morehead State/Howard), (Alcorn State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Clemson, North Texas, Utah State

Next Four Out: Penn State, Arizona State, Oregon, Seton Hall

Also Considered: Wake Forest, New Mexico, VCU, Oral Roberts, Florida, Charleston, Oklahoma, Utah

Moving In: Kentucky, Samford, UC Irvine

Moving Out: Mississippi State, Furman, UC Santa Barbara

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/13/2023

It was a busy weekend of college hoops, highlighted by a game in my own backyard in Evanston. I was thinking of going to Purdue/Northwestern but balked at the $175 ticket, it’s a shame I did as the Wildcats pulled off one of their biggest wins in program history. I’ve moved Northwestern safely into the field as an 8 seed, and moved Purdue to the #2 overall seed behind Alabama.

1: Alabama, Purdue, Houston, Kansas

2: Texas, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA

3: Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kansas State

4: Xavier, Connecticut, Indiana, Marquette

5: San Diego State. St. Mary’s, Illinois, Miami (FL)

6: Iowa State, Creighton, TCU, NC State

7: Maryland, Michigan State, Arkansas, Auburn

8: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Northwestern

9: Duke, Nevada, Rutgers, Iowa

10: West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State, Pittsburgh

11: Providence, North Carolina, (Texas A&M/Wisconsin), (Mississippi State/USC)

12: VCU, Oral Roberts, Charleston, Southern Miss

13: Drake, Utah Valley, Liberty, Kent State

14: UC Santa Barbara, Yale, Furman, Iona

15: Eastern Washington, Vermont, Colgate, UNC Asheville

16: Youngstown State, Northwestern State, (Morehead State/Howard), (Alcorn State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Kentucky, Oregon, Clemson, New Mexico

Next Four Out: Utah State, North Texas, Arizona State, Seton Hall

Also Considered: Wake Forest, VCU, Michigan, Oral Roberts, Penn State, Florida, Charleston, Oklahoma

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/11/2023

We’re now a month and a day from Selection Sunday and most teams have only five or so regular season games remaining. If your team isn’t on this page, the chances of them making the tournament are pretty low. Historical precedent suggests that by this point in the season, we can expect that all but a half dozen of the final at-large teams are in my current field. There is always a chance for a team to come out of nowhere and go on a crazy run to make the field (2020 UCLA comes to mind) but it doesn’t happen every year.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Kansas

2: Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Baylor, Kansas State, Connecticut, Xavier

4: Indiana, Iowa State, Virginia, Marquette

5: Miami (FL), San Diego State, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga

6: TCU, Rutgers, Iowa, Duke

7: Illinois, Creighton, NC State, Arkansas

8: West Virginia, Providence, Michigan State, Florida Atlantic

9: Nevada, Auburn, Maryland, Boise State

10: Northwestern, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oklahoma State

11: New Mexico, USC, (Texas A&M/Missouri), (Wisconsin/Pittsburgh)

12: Charleston, VCU, Oral Roberts, Southern Miss

13: Kent State, Utah Valley, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Princeton, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Clemson, Oregon, Utah State, Memphis

Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Texas, Florida

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Michigan, Penn State, Charleston, VCU, Virginia Tech, UCF

Bracketology 2/8/2023

Kansas got a nice home win over Texas and I’ve moved the Jayhawks back up to the top line, replacing Arizona. Purdue and Alabama have a pretty firm grip on #1 seeds but the next 6 teams are all in contention for the two remaining slots.

Indiana has put together a collection of nice wins, highlighted by their weekend victory over Purdue. The Hoosiers are a 4 seed in this update, the first time I’ve had them as a protected seed all year.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Kansas

2: Arizona, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA

3: Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Xavier

4: St. Mary’s, Connecticut, Indiana, Virginia

5: Marquette, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, TCU

6: Iowa, San Diego State, Rutgers, Duke

7: Illinois, NC State, Arkansas, Providence

8: Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Creighton

9: Auburn, New Mexico, West Virginia, Maryland

10: USC, Boise State, North Carolina, Kentucky

11: Oklahoma State, Utah State, (Northwestern/Texas A&M), (Missouri/Pittsburgh)

12: VCU, Charleston, Oral Roberts, Akron

13: Southern Miss, Utah Valley, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Princeton, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Clemson, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Charleston, VCU

Bracketology 2/6/2023

The best game of the weekend was St. Mary’s beating Gonzaga in overtime, cementing their place at the top of the WCC this year. The Gaels were looking shaky after a 6-3 start but now have top 10 computer metrics everywhere and after a 12 game winning streak they enter the protected seeds for the first time all year.

There are always a few teams whose resume looks a lot better than their computer numbers do. Often these teams fall off in the second half of the season and we’re seeing it here- Missouri has slid from a 5 seed to an 11 seed in recent weeks and Arizona State is almost totally out of the tournament picture.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Arizona

2: Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Baylor, Iowa State, Xavier, Marquette

4: Kansas State, St. Mary’s, Virginia, Miami (FL)

5: Indiana, TCU, Rutgers, Connecticut

6: Gonzaga, Duke, Iowa, San Diego State

7: Auburn, NC State, Illinois, Providence

8: New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, North Carolina

9: Michigan State, Kentucky, Creighton, West Virginia

10: Maryland, Nevada, USC, Boise State

11: Utah State, Oklahoma State, (Northwestern/Pittsburgh), (Missouri/Clemson)

12: VCU, Charleston, Oral Roberts, Akron

13: Southern Miss, Utah Valley, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Princeton, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Memphis, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State

Also Considered: VCU, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Charleston

Bracketology 2/4/2023

It was a bad week for mid major at-large hopefuls with Florida Atlantic and Charleston both picking up losses. Charleston probably needs to make it to the CAA tournament without another loss to have a chance, Florida Atlantic has the benefit of a stronger schedule in CUSA and has more wiggle room.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston

2: Arizona, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA

3: Baylor, Kansas State, Xavier, Virginia

4: Marquette, TCU, Iowa State, Gonzaga

5: Connecticut, Auburn, St. Mary’s, Rutgers

6: San Diego State, Miami (FL), Illinois, Indiana

7: NC State, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina

8: Providence, New Mexico, Iowa, Arkansas

9: Florida Atlantic, Creighton, Missouri, Maryland

10: Memphis, Nevada, USC, Kentucky

11: Clemson, West Virginia, (Pittsburgh/Boise State), (Utah State/Wisconsin)

12: Charleston, VCU, Oral Roberts, Akron

13: Sam Houston State, Southern Miss, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Cornell, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Florida, Northwestern, Penn State, Oklahoma State

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Arizona State, VCU

Also Considered: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, North Texas, Wake Forest, Charleston, Oregon, Michigan

Bracketology 1/30/2023

A busy weekend of college hoops was highlighted by the Big 12/SEC challenge. The biggest winner of the event was Oklahoma, who demolished Alabama to snap a 3 game losing skid. The Sooners are the first team out of my bracket today, their predictive metrics are quite good but their Kenpom projection of 16-15 will not cut it to make the field.

Every so often I like to go through and rebuild my seed list from scratch, taking a look at every team’s resume with fresh eyes. I went through this process this morning and it led to teams like Connecticut and Florida Atlantic rising up the seed list.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Tennessee

2: Houston, Arizona, Kansas State, Texas

3: Baylor, UCLA, Iowa State, Virginia

4: Marquette, Xavier, Gonzaga, Connecticut

5: TCU, Auburn, Indiana, St. Mary’s

6: San Diego State, Rutgers, Illinois, Miami (FL)

7: NC State, New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Providence

8: Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke, Missouri

9: Memphis, Creighton, Clemson, USC

10: Iowa, Northwestern, Boise State, Arkansas

11: Nevada, West Virginia, (Maryland/Kentucky), (Texas A&M/Pittsburgh)

12: Charleston, Saint Louis, Kent State, Oral Roberts

13: Sam Houston State, UC Santa Barbara, Southern Miss, Liberty

14: Iona, Southern Illinois, Cornell, Furman

15: Vermont, Colgate, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington

16: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, (Northwestern State/UT-Martin), (Grambling State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Oklahoma, Charleston, Penn State, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Utah State, Ohio State

Also Considered: Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Saint Louis, Mississippi State, Florida, North Texas, Utah

Bracketology 1/27/2022

Kansas has now dropped three games in a row which has taken them from the #1 overall seed to a 2 seed. The Jayhawks have every opportunity to get back to the 1 line, but if they finish 6-4 as Kenpom suggests they won’t get there.

When Skyy Clark left the team at the beginning of January, I thought there was a good chance that Illinois might miss the tournament. They’re 5-1 since then but yet to pick up a Q1 win during that span- they have a good opportunity for one this weekend against a sliding Wisconsin team.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Houston, Tennessee

2: Kansas, Arizona, Texas, UCLA

3: Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, Marquette

4: Xavier, Virginia, TCU, Gonzaga

5: Auburn, Miami (FL), San Diego State, North Carolina

6: Rutgers, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Connecticut

7: Providence, Michigan State, Arkansas, Duke

8: Illinois, Florida Atlantic, NC State, New Mexico

9: Missouri, Boise State, Charleston, Creighton

10: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Clemson

11: Maryland, USC, Nevada, (Iowa/West Virginia)

12: (Pittsburgh/Utah State), Oral Roberts, Iona, Kent State

13: VCU, Liberty, UC Santa Barbara, Southern Miss

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, Vermont

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, Eastern Washington, (Grambling State/Nicholls State), (Southeast Missouri State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Ohio State, Mississippi State, Memphis, Penn State

Next Four Out: Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Bracketology 1/23/2023

I thought Houston stood a decent chance of finishing the season undefeated in conference play. They would’ve been a contender for the #1 overall seed had they been able to do that, but instead they lost a shocking game at home to Temple. I’ve kept them on the top line for now, but that’s mainly because the other contenders for the last 1 seed haven’t been great lately.

It’s a banner year in the Mountain West with 5 teams in my projection right now. I think at least one of Nevada and Utah State will drop out, but San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico look reasonably safe.

1: Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston

2: Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Kansas State

3: Texas, Marquette, Virginia, Baylor

4: Iowa State, TCU, Xavier, Gonzaga

5: Auburn, Connecticut, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

6: Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Providence

7: North Carolina, Rutgers, Arkansas, New Mexico

8: Florida Atlantic, NC State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

9: Missouri, Boise State, Illinois, Charleston

10: Creighton, Kentucky, Iowa, Clemson

11: Maryland, Utah State, Nevada, (West Virginia/Northwestern)

12: (Arizona State/Ohio State), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: VCU, Liberty, Marshall, UC Irvine

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, UMass Lowell

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, Eastern Washington, (Grambling State/SIU Edwardsville), (Nicholls State/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, USC, Penn State, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Memphis, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

Bracketology 1/21/2023

It’s difficult to overstate just how strong the Big 12 is this year. The league has a whopping 6 teams as top 6 seeds in this update, which is nearly unprecedented. Kansas was the victim of the league’s strength this week when they fell to Kansas State in Manhattan, bumping them off the top overall spot.

The Big 12’s strength comes at the expense of some of the other power conferences. The Pac-12 is notably week- UCLA and Arizona are both stone cold locks and Arizona State will probably make the tournament. Then there’s a mediocre USC team and a long way down after that.

1: Purdue, Kansas, Houston, Alabama

2: UCLA, Arizona, Tennessee, Kansas State

3: Iowa State, Texas, Marquette, Virginia

4: Baylor, Xavier, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)

5: Auburn, Connecticut, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

6: TCU, Providence, Rutgers, Arkansas

7: New Mexico, Indiana, NC State, Duke

8: Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, Missouri, North Carolina

9: Wisconsin, Boise State, West Virginia, Illinois

10: Iowa, Charleston, Creighton, Kentucky

11: Maryland, Arizona State, Utah State, (Nevada/Clemson)

12: (Mississippi State/Northwestern), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: Dayton, Liberty, Marshall, UC Irvine

14: Utah Valley, Drake, Princeton, UMass Lowell

15: Colgate, Milwaukee, Furman, Norfolk State

16: Longwood, SIU Edwardsville, (Eastern Washington/Grambling State), (Texas A&M CC/Fairleigh Dickinson)

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Penn State, USC

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Memphis, Wake Forest

Bracketology 1/16/2023

Tons of movement up and down the seed list since my last update. Our two unlikely mid-major at-large hopefuls (Florida Atlantic and Charleston) keep on winning and are buying themselves valuable breathing room from the cut line. At the top of the bracket, UConn has hit a rough patch and is out of the 1 seed conversation. Meanwhile, UCLA hasn’t lost a game since Thanksgiving and is nearly up to the top line.

1: Kansas, Purdue, Houston, Alabama

2: UCLA, Arizona, Texas, Xavier

3: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Virginia

4: Marquette, Kansas State, Iowa State, Miami (FL)

5: Auburn, Baylor, TCU, Arkansas

6: Providence, Rutgers, San Diego State, St. Mary’s

7: Indiana, NC State, Boise State, Duke

8: North Carolina, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, Michigan State

9: Illinois, Arizona State, Missouri, Charleston

10: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia

11: Creighton, Clemson, Nevada, (Ohio State/Utah State)

12: (Mississippi State/Maryland), Kent State, Oral Roberts, Iona

13: Dayton, Marshall, UC Irvine, Utah Valley

14: Florida Gulf Coast, Drake, Princeton, American

15: UMass Lowell, SIU Edwardsville, Milwaukee, Furman

16: Norfolk State, Longwood, (Eastern Washington/Bryant), (Grambling State/Texas A&M CC)

First Four Out: Northwestern, Iowa, USC, Oklahoma

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Memphis, Pittsburgh

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 1/9/2023

Conference play is now underway and we have a pretty unusual group of suspects at the top of the seed list. Of my top eight teams, only 2 (Kansas and Arizona) have received a 1 seed in the last decade. It is nice to see some new teams at the top but it is a bit weird to see Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky languishing in the middle of the seed list.

The balance of power in the middle conferences of the sport is a bit weird this year as well. The Atlantic 10 is having their worst year in memory with no teams in at-large contention and its leader (Dayton) all the way down on the 14 line. The Mountain West is picking up the slack with a whopping 5 teams in this update.

1: Kansas, Purdue, Houston, Connecticut

2: Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Texas, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Arkansas

4: Iowa State, Xavier, Miami (FL), San Diego State

5: Virginia, Marquette, Missouri, Duke

6: Ohio State, TCU, North Carolina, Auburn

7: Providence, NC State, Indiana, Boise State

8: West Virginia, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin, Baylor

9: Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Rutgers, Mississippi State

10: Nevada, Michigan State, New Mexico, Utah State

11: Arizona State, Charleston, Northwestern, (Creighton/Virginia Tech)

12: (Maryland/UNLV), Sam Houston State, Iona, Oral Roberts

13: Kent State, UMass Lowell, Southern Miss, UC Santa Barbara

14: Dayton, Florida Gulf Coast, Drake, Princeton

15: American, Norfolk State, SIU Edwardsville, Milwaukee

16: Furman, Longwood, (Eastern Washington/Bryant), (Grambling State/Texas A&M CC)

First Four Out: Clemson, Memphis, UCF, Utah

Next Four Out: Penn State, Illinois, USC, Pittsburgh

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 5

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 12/27/2022

It’s been a month since my last update as I’ve been busy with NFL season and the World Cup. In that time, Connecticut has flown up the seed list and looks to be in line for their first 1 seed since Hasheem Thabeet and Kemba Walker were playing for the Huskies. We have a bit of a weird dynamic where two of the 1 seeds (Connecticut and Houston) play in conferences with only a few bids while others (Purdue and Kansas) will get plenty of quality win opportunities.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting year for mid-majors on the bubble. Charleston and Florida Atlantic haven’t sniffed an at-large in the 13 years I’ve been doing this, but both are off to great starts. Some of our usual suspects like the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley are quite weak this year- instead we have a bumper crop of contenders from the Mountain West and Conference USA.

1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, Kansas

2: Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, UCLA

3: Arkansas, Gonzaga, Texas, Baylor

4: West Virginia, Duke, Virginia, Indiana

5: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Maryland

6: Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas State, Auburn

7: New Mexico, TCU, Miami (FL), Wisconsin

8: Xavier, Memphis, San Diego State, Missouri

9: Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Illinois, Iowa State

10: UNLV, Marquette, Charleston, Northwestern

11: Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Penn State, (Oklahoma/NC State)

12: (UAB/Michigan State), Sam Houston State, Kent State, Iona

13: Yale, Oral Roberts, Dayton, Marshall

14: Liberty, Drake, Furman, UC Santa Barbara

15: UMass Lowell, Colgate, Youngstown State, Montana State

16: Longwood, SIU Edwardsville, (Norfolk State/Texas A&M CC), (Grambling State/Wagner)

First Four Out: Texas Tech, Rutgers, Creighton, LSU

Next Four Out: USC, Utah, Iowa, Clemson

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

SEC: 7

ACC: 6

Mountain West: 4

Big East: 3

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

Conference USA: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 11/28/2022

Feast Week is in the books and we’ve seen a lot of shakeups at the top of the bracket. None of my 4 preseason #1 seeds (Gonzaga, North Carolina, Baylor and Kentucky) remain on the top line. North Carolina has some legitimate problems to sort out but the other 3 teams will likely be protected seeds come Selection Sunday.

I debated a bit about who to put in the top overall spot, ultimately I went with Purdue. Their computer numbers are not as good as some of the other contenders but they clearly have the best wins so far.

My next update will come in around two weeks or so, the volume of big games will die down for a bit before picking back up around New Years’.

1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Texas

2: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee

3: Creighton, Kansas, Baylor, Kentucky

4: Indiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn

5: UCLA, Maryland, Duke, Illinois

6: Mississippi State, Michigan State, West Virginia, San Diego State

7: Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas State

8: Utah State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Memphis

9: St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Penn State, Wisconsin

10: Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami, Ole Miss

11: St. John’s, Drake, (Northwestern/LSU), (Arizona State/Missouri)

12: UAB, Saint Louis, Sam Houston State, James Madison

13: Kent State, Furman, UC Irvine, Iona

14: Towson, Liberty, Yale, Colgate

15: Oral Roberts, Montana State, UMass Lowell, Youngstown State

16: Longwood, Texas A&M CC, (Norfolk State/SIU Edwardsville), (Wagner/Southern)

First Four Out: New Mexico, TCU, Michigan, Marquette

Next Four Out: Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Xavier

2022-23 Preseason Bracketology

It’s snuck up on me, but college basketball season starts tomorrow. It’s a bit of a weird opening to the season this year as there’s very few marquee games in the first week. The Champions Classic is not until the 15th and then Feast Week kicks off the week after that. I’m pretty busy with college football at this time of year so I probably won’t post another update until after Thanksgiving weekend, we’ll probably have a clearer sense of where everyone stands.

1: Gonzaga, North Carolina, Baylor, Kentucky

2: Houston, Texas, Tennessee, Kansas

3: Duke, UCLA, Indiana, Arkansas

4: TCU, San Diego State, Virginia, Arizona

5: Villanova, Illinois, Creighton, Auburn

6: Virginia Tech, Xavier, Oregon, Purdue

7: Michigan, Michigan State, Dayton, Texas A&M

8: Memphis, Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma

9: Miami (FL), Iowa, Oklahoma State, Connecticut

10: Saint Louis, USC, St. John’s, Florida

11: Memphis, Florida State, (Wyoming/West Virginia), (Stanford/Tulane)

12: UAB, Furman, Drake, Liberty

13: Toledo, Grand Canyon, Towson, Vermont

14: UC Santa Barbara, Colgate, Iona, Oral Roberts

15: James Madison, Princeton, Northern Kentucky, Longwood

16: Norfolk State, Montana State, (Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Morehead State), (Texas Southern/Wagner)

First Four Out: Missouri, Ohio State, Rutgers, St. Mary’s

Next Four Out: BYU, Syracuse, Kansas State, Loyola Chicago

Bracketology 3/13/2022 PM

The selection show is now only hours away, and this is my final bracket projection of the season.

We had one big shakeup in today’s action. Richmond’s win over Davidson puts the Spiders into the tournament and takes a spot from the at-large pool. I think SMU is the casualty of Richmond’s win.

I feel pretty decent about my first 66 teams in the bracket but much worse about the last two spots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of my first 5 teams out of the field in the tournament.

We do have one interesting quirk in my final bracket projection. Since 3 of my last 4 teams in (Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers) are from the Big Ten, I have Michigan and Indiana playing in the First Four in Dayton. The committee explicitly allows a conference matchup in the First Four if at least three of the teams are from the same conference.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova

3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa

6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama

7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State

9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton

10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago

11: Wyoming, Davidson,Virginia Tech, (Indiana/Michigan)

12: (Texas A&M/Rutgers), UAB, South Dakota State, Chattanooga

13: New Mexico State, Richmond, Vermont, Montana State

14: Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron, Yale

15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate

16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

First Four Out: SMU, Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Oklahoma, VCU, Florida, North Texas

Moving In: Richmond, Yale

Moving Out: SMU, Princeton

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

Big 12: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Bracketology 3/13/2022 AM

Selection Sunday is upon us, and the bubble is extremely fluid. I’d be pretty surprised if I get all 68 teams right this year, the last few spots on the bubble are wide open. What’s nice about this year’s bubble is that there’s a lot of different flavors of teams to choose from. There’s a traditional high loss count power team (Oklahoma), a team with big wins and bad losses (Rutgers), a team getting hot at the right time (Texas A&M) and a team getting cold at the wrong time (Xavier).

I’ll have my final update this afternoon right after the Big Ten championship game ends. We could have some changes between now and then, Richmond is lurking as a potential bid thief and will slot into the bracket as a 13 seed should they beat Davidson today.

1: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova

3: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

4: Illinois, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence

5: Houston, Connecticut, St. Mary’s, Iowa

6: Colorado State, USC, Texas, Alabama

7: LSU, Michigan State, Murray State, Boise State

8: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Iowa State, San Diego State

9: Marquette, TCU, North Carolina, Creighton

10: Memphis, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Loyola Chicago

11: Davidson, Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia Tech

12: (Michigan/Texas A&M), (Rutgers/SMU), UAB, South Dakota State

13: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, Vermont, Princeton

14: Montana State, Longwood, St. Peter’s, Akron

15: Jacksonville State, Delaware, Cal State Fullerton, Colgate

16: Georgia State, Norfolk State, (Bryant/Wright State), (Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Xavier, Wake Forest, Oklahoma

Next Four Out: VCU, Florida, North Texas, BYU

Moving In: Texas A&M, SMU, Texas Southern, Akron, Cal State Fullerton

Moving Out: Xavier, Notre Dame, Alcorn State, Kent State, Long Beach State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

SEC: 7

Big East: 6

Big 12: 6

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

West Coast: 3