Bracketology 2/20/2021
The biggest result of the last two days was Wichita State’s win over Houston. Wichita State’s profile is quite a bit better than I initially realized, they have a 2-2 record against both Q1 and Q2, no bad losses and a great win over Houston. Their efficiency numbers are pretty bad for a bubble team, but if they go 3-1 down the stretch (no small ask against a tricky schedule) I think they’ll make the field.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa
3: Oklahoma, Houston, Virginia, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas
5: USC, Kansas, Creighton, Purdue
6: Wisconsin, Arkansas, Clemson, Missouri
7: Virginia Tech, BYU, Rutgers, Oklahoma State
8: Louisville, Colorado, LSU, Loyola Chicago
9: UCLA, Florida, VCU, Xavier
10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Oregon, Drake
11: Boise State, Indiana, Seton Hall, Colorado State
12: (North Carolina/Wichita State), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Winthrop, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara
14: Wright State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Stanford, SMU
Next Four Out: Memphis, Richmond, St. John’s, Utah State
Moving In: Wichita State
Moving Out: Connecticut
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/18/2021
The bubble picture is starting to clear up a bit. I would say that the teams on the 1 through 9 lines can feel pretty good about their tournament bids (>80% to make the field). Similarly, any team beyond the Next Four Out is probably <20% to make the tournament. That leaves 20 teams for 12 spots. While there will be a surprise or two, those 20 teams are the ones we can expect to see hanging out on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Villanova
3: Oklahoma, Virginia, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas
5: USC, Kansas, Wisconsin, Creighton
6: Purdue, Arkansas, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU
8: Oklahoma State, Louisville, LSU, Loyola Chicago
9: Florida, VCU, Xavier, UCLA
10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Drake, Indiana
11: Seton Hall, Boise State, Oregon, Colorado State
12: (North Carolina/Maryland), (St. Bonaventure/Connecticut), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Mississippi, Stanford, SMU, Saint Louis
Next Four Out: Utah State, Memphis, Richmond, Wichita State
Moving In: Connecticut
Moving Out: Utah State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/15/2021
The committee’s reveal of their top 16 seeds on Saturday contained a few surprises. Oklahoma and Texas Tech made their list, while I had Wisconsin and USC in instead. Oklahoma followed that up with a huge win at West Virginia and so they rise from a 5 to a 3 seed in this update.
The weekend was surprisingly calm on the bubble with no teams moving in or out of the field. The biggest games were probably in Des Moines where Loyola and Drake split the two game series, keeping both their at-large hopes alive.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Virginia
3: Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Texas, USC
5: Florida State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri
6: Creighton, Purdue, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU
8: Florida, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Louisville
9: Loyola Chicago, LSU, Minnesota, UCLA
10: San Diego State, VCU, Drake, Oregon
11: Maryland, Seton Hall, Colorado State, North Carolina
12: (Indiana/Boise State), (St. Bonaventure/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Belmont
13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro
15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington
16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, SMU, Saint Louis
Next Four Out: Richmond, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s
Moving In: Norfolk State, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota
Moving Out: Morgan State, Furman, South Dakota State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/12/2021
Tomorrow afternoon the committee will do their annual reveal of their top 16 teams. The two teams I am most interested to see them place are probably Houston and Missouri. Houston is a classic example of a team from a medium sized league running up a great record, they remind me a bit of 2013 New Mexico. Missouri’s team sheet looks stellar but their predictive metrics are in line with a bubble team, and their NET of 34 roughly splits the difference between the two.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, West Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin
4: USC, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas
5: Kansas, Purdue, Colorado, Oklahoma
6: Texas Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Rutgers
7: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Creighton, BYU
8: Minnesota, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma State
9: Louisville, Loyola Chicago, UCLA, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, Indiana, VCU
11: St. Bonaventure, LSU, Seton Hall, Colorado State
12: (Oregon/Boise State), (Maryland/Utah State), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian
15: Furman, Liberty, Vermont, Siena
16: Bryant, Texas State, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: SMU, Richmond, Penn State, Connecticut
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s
Moving In: Maryland, Utah State
Moving Out: Connecticut, Richmond
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 4
Pac-12: 4
Mountain West: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/10/2021
It’s still hard to make heads or tails of Penn State. Their schedule has been absolutely ridiculous and their efficiency numbers and raw resume numbers look solid, but their record is now two games below .500. This is one of the cases where there’s no comparable resumes to look at because of the uniqueness of this season and it’s really anyone’s guess what the committee will do.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, Missouri, West Virginia, Wisconsin
4: USC, Tennessee, Iowa, Texas
5: Kansas, Purdue, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
6: Rutgers, Florida State, Clemson, Colorado
7: Xavier, Creighton, UCLA, BYU
8: Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota
9: Oklahoma State, Louisville, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, VCU, Indiana
11: St. Bonaventure, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Connecticut
12: (Richmond/Boise State), (LSU/Oregon), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian
15: Furman, Liberty, Vermont, Siena
16: Bryant, Texas State, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: SMU, Penn State, Maryland, Stanford
Next Four Out: Memphis, St. John’s, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Moving In: Boise State, Oregon, Texas State
Moving Out: Penn State, Maryland, Georgia State
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/8/2021
A busy weekend with plenty of action near the bubble. The biggest loser is probably Boise State, who lost a pair of games in Reno to Nevada and has fallen out of the field. Drake also took their first loss of the season to Valparaiso and drops towards the cutline.
As for bubble winners, St. John’s has now won 6 straight and is my first team out of the field. Memphis has also strung a few wins together and enters the bubble picture, although their real statement opportunity is next Sunday when they travel to Houston.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia
3: Houston, Missouri, Wisconsin, USC
4: West Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa, Texas
5: Texas Tech, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas
6: Rutgers, Florida State, Clemson, Colorado
7: BYU, Xavier, Creighton, UCLA
8: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Minnesota
9: Arkansas, Louisville, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
10: Drake, North Carolina, Indiana, St. Bonaventure
11: Penn State, Seton Hall, VCU, Colorado State
12: (Maryland/Connecticut), (Richmond/LSU), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Abilene Christian, Liberty
15: Grand Canyon, Vermont, Furman, Siena
16: Georgia State, Bryant, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: St. John’s, Boise State, Oregon, SMU
Next Four Out: Stanford, Memphis, Toledo, Georgia Tech
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 11
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big East: 5
Atlantic 10: 3
Pac-12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/5/2021
There was some chaos at the top of the seed list this week, as both Villanova and Houston lost to teams outside the field. Houston’s loss to East Carolina hurts quite a bit more than Villanova’s loss to St. John’s, but they both opened up a gap for the last 1 seed. I considered Alabama and Villanova but ultimately Ohio State got it done with 7 Q1 wins, including 4 Q1-A win. Both of those marks lead the nation.
On the bubble, Oregon is out of the field for the first time all year after a tough loss to Washington State. The Ducks have not looked the same since their COVID pause and the Pac-12 is now down to just 3 bids with Oregon and Stanford just outside the field.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
2: Alabama, Villanova, Houston, Illinois
3: Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Texas
4: Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: USC, Oklahoma, Florida State, Purdue
6: UCLA, Kansas, Creighton, Xavier
7: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Drake, Clemson
8: Minnesota, Rutgers, Boise State, BYU
9: Oklahoma State, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: Louisville, Connecticut, North Carolina, Loyola Chicago
11: San Diego State, VCU, LSU, Indiana
12; (Seton Hall/Colorado State), Toledo, (Richmond/Maryland), Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: SMU, St. John’s, Oregon, Stanford
Next Four Out: Penn State, Saint Louis, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Bracketology 2/3/2021
The bottom of the Big Ten continues to battle for a spot in the bracket as Maryland knocks off Purdue to remain in the bubble conversation. I now have 4 Atlantic 10 teams in the field, but 3 of them are in the First Four and none of them are better than a 9 seed.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Houston
2: Villanova, Iowa, Alabama, Illinois
3: Ohio State, Missouri, Wisconsin, Texas
4: Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton, West Virginia
5: Texas Tech, USC, Oklahoma, Florida State
6: Purdue, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Kansas
7: Florida, Xavier, Colorado, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma State, Drake, Clemson, Boise State
9: BYU, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: Louisville, Connecticut, North Carolina, Loyola Chicago
11: San Diego State, Oregon, LSU, Indiana
12; (Saint Louis/VCU), Toledo, (Colorado State/Richmond), Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Maryland, Seton Hall, Penn State, SMU
Next Four Out: Stanford, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Utah State
Bracketology 2/1/2021
One team which intrigues me quite a bit is Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a losing record at 6-7, but their WAB and other resume metrics are worthy of at-large consideration, so I’ve put them in the First Four here after a big weekend win over Wisconsin.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Houston
2: Villanova, Iowa, Alabama, Illinois
3: Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Missouri
4: Wisconsin, Virginia, Creighton, West Virginia
5: Oklahoma, Purdue, Florida State, USC
6: UCLA, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Kansas
7: Florida, Xavier, Colorado, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma State, Drake, Boise State, BYU
9: Rutgers, Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas
10: North Carolina, Connecticut, San Diego State, Louisville
11: Loyola Chicago, Indiana, Oregon, LSU
12; (Saint Louis/Penn State), (VCU/Colorado State), Toledo, Western Kentucky
13: Winthrop, Wright State, Colgate, Belmont
14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Vermont, Abilene Christian
15: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Siena, Grand Canyon
16: Louisiana, Bryant, (Northeastern/Montana State), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)
First Four Out: Stanford, Toledo, Richmond, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, Western Kentucky, SMU
Bracketology 1/30/2021
Arguably the game of the year in the Big Ten was last night, where Illinois edged past Iowa. The Hawkeyes could’ve risen to a 1 seed with a win but remain on the 2 line for now, while Illinois is one of 5 Big Ten teams who is a protected seed.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova
2: Houston, Iowa, Alabama, Texas
3: Virginia, Ohio State, Wisconsin, West Virginia
4: Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Florida State
5: Creighton, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UCLA
6: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Purdue
7: Connecticut, Clemson, USC, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Drake
9: Florida, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU
10: Boise State, Rutgers, Saint Louis, Indiana
11: LSU, St. Bonaventure, Arkansas, Loyola Chicago
12: (Seton Hall/Stanford), (San Diego State/VCU), Toledo, Belmont
13: Winthrop, UAB, Wright State, South Dakota State
14: UC Santa Barbara, Wofford, Vermont, Liberty
15: Texas State, Grand Canyon, Siena, Abilene Christian
16: Northeastern, Montana State, (Navy/Bryant), (Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Colorado State, Providence, Maryland
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, Wichita State, Richmond, Utah State
Bracketology 1/27/2021
Things are starting to get interesting in the A-10 where there is no surefire tournament team. Last year, Dayton was the clear class of the league, but this team no one has emerged. St. Bonaventure probably has the best resume in the league, but Saint Louis has had a shortened season and looks like the best team. VCU and Richmond remain in the bubble chase as well.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova
2: Iowa, Houston, Alabama, Texas
3: Virginia, Ohio State, West Virginia, Wisconsin
4: Missouri, Kansas, Florida State, Illinois
5: Tennessee, Creighton, Texas Tech, Colorado
6: UCLA, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Purdue
7: Connecticut, USC, Xavier, BYU
8: Clemson, Oklahoma State, Louisville, North Carolina
9: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Drake, Florida
10: Boise State, Saint Louis, Indiana, Seton Hall
11: LSU, St. Bonaventure, Michigan State, Rutgers
12: (Stanford/Arkansas), (Maryland/Loyola Chicago), Winthrop, Toledo
13: Belmont, UAB, Wright State, South Dakota State
14: UC Santa Barbara, Wofford, Vermont, Liberty
15: Texas State, Grand Canyon, Siena, Abilene Christian
16: Northeastern, Montana State, (Navy/Bryant), (Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: San Diego State, VCU, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Four Out: Wichita State, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Colorado State
Bracketology 1/25/2021
Selection Sunday is now 7 weeks away, which leaves plenty of time for movement in the seed list.
One big winner of the weekend was Missouri, who picked up a big win at Tennessee which bumped them up to a 3 seed. The Tigers are probably not as good as their seed would indicate, but their resume is hard to argue with. On the other end, Oregon was probably the weekend’s biggest loser. The Ducks lost at home to sub-100 Oregon State. The Ducks’ best win is either Seton Hall in Omaha, or Stanford at home, neither of which is fantastic.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova
2: Iowa, Texas, Houston, Alabama
3: Missouri, Virginia, Ohio State, Wisconsin
4: Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Florida State
5: Illinois, Tennessee, Creighton, Colorado
6: UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, Connecticut
7: USC, Xavier, Oklahoma, BYU
8: Clemson, Saint Louis, Louisville, Oregon
9: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida
10: Boise State, Indiana, Drake, Seton Hall
11: St. Bonaventure, LSU, Michigan State, Rutgers
12: (Stanford/Arkansas), (Maryland/Loyola Chicago), Winthrop, Toledo
13: Belmont, Western Kentucky, Wright State, South Dakota State
14: UC Santa Barbara, Wofford, Vermont, Liberty
15: Texas State, Grand Canyon, Siena, Abilene Christian
16: Northeastern, Montana State, (Navy/Bryant), (Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: San Diego State, VCU, Syracuse, Pittsburgh
Next Four Out: Marquette, Utah State, Wichita State, SMU
Bracketology 1/22/2021
A lot of the action in the last few days has been in the Big Ten. Rutgers cannot find a win anywhere, and is now 7-6 without a win in 2021. Indiana was headed down a similar path before a massive road win at Iowa yesterday. That knocks the Hawkeyes off the top line, putting Villanova in their place.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova
2: Iowa, Texas, Houston, Alabama
3: Kansas, Wisconsin,Virginia, Tennessee
4: Missouri, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Illinois
5: Minnesota, Florida State, UCLA, Oregon
6: Colorado, Purdue, Ohio State, Creighton
7: Connecticut, Saint Louis, Clemson, Virginia Tech
8: Xavier, BYU, Oklahoma State, Louisville
9: Indiana, LSU, Florida, USC
10: Drake, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, North Carolina
11: Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Michigan State
12: (Arkansas/San Diego State), (Georgia Tech/Loyola Chicago), Winthrop, Toledo
13: Western Kentucky, Furman, South Dakota State, Belmont
14: Georgia State, Liberty, New Mexico State, Siena
15: Abilene Christian, UC Irvine, Northeastern, Cleveland State
16: Navy, Bryant, (Southern Utah/UMBC), (Southern/North Carolina Central)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Rutgers, Marquette, Maryland
Next Four Out: Utah State, Duke, Wichita State, Richmond
Bracketology 1/18/2021
We’re now less than 2 months until Selection Sunday, and some teams are beginning to make their moves up the seed list. Among them is Alabama, who is now 6-0 in the SEC and owns an impressive win at Tennessee. BYU also had a strong weekend, sweeping a road trip to the Bay Area with wins over San Francisco and St. Mary’s.
Elsewhere in the west, things are getting a bit strange in the Mountain West. San Diego State looked like a clear at-large team but is now 3-3 in league play. Boise State hasn’t lost since November and has moved into the AQ spot, although Utah State is also in the at-large conversation.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Villanova
2: Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Tennessee
3: Wisconsin, Houston, Virginia, Colorado
4: Missouri, Alabama, Connecticut, Creighton
5: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Illinois, Minnesota
6: Ohio State, Clemson, UCLA, Oregon
7: LSU, Florida State, USC, Saint Louis
8: Virginia Tech, Louisville, Xavier, BYU
9: Oklahoma State, Purdue, Duke, North Carolina
10: Drake, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Rutgers
11: Boise State, Michigan State, Indiana, Arkansas
12: (St. Bonaventure/San Diego State), (Pittsburgh/VCU), Winthrop, Furman
13: Toledo, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Belmont
14: Georgia State, Liberty, New Mexico State, Siena
15: Abilene Christian, UC Irvine, Northeastern, Cleveland State
16: Navy, Bryant, (Southern Utah/UMBC), (Southern/North Carolina Central)
First Four Out: Marquette, Utah State, Florida, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Wichita State, Georgia Tech, Richmond
Bracketology 1/13/21
Perhaps the biggest news in this update is Michigan moving up to the top line. The Wolverines dominated Wisconsin yesterday and now have one of the best resumes in the country. They’ve taken Villanova’s place as a 1 seed.
Elsewhere, the ACC has a lot of solid teams but no exceptional ones. I have 9 ACC teams in this bracket, although only Clemson is among the protected seeds. My guess is the league probably gets around 7 or 8 teams in as the mediocre ones beat each other up.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Texas
2: Iowa, Villanova, Kansas, Tennessee
3: Creighton, Houston, Wisconsin, Clemson
4: Illinois, Missouri, Connecticut, West Virginia
5: Colorado, Virginia, Alabama, Louisville
6: UCLA, Ohio State, Oregon, USC
7: Minnesota, Texas Tech, Saint Louis, Virginia Tech
8: Xavier, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, LSU
9: San Diego State, Indiana, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Duke, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Drake
11: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Purdue, BYU
12: (Boise State/Purdue), (Florida/Syracuse), Furman, Toledo
13: Marshall, Wright State, South Dakota State, Belmont
14: Winthrop, Liberty, Georgia State, New Mexico State
15: Abilene Christian, UC Irvine, Northeastern, Siena
16: Navy, Bryant, (Southern Utah/UMBC), (Texas Southern/North Carolina Central)
First Four Out: VCU, Northwestern, St. Bonaventure, NC State
Next Four Out: Wichita State, Marquette, Georgia Tech, Richmond
Bracketology 1/9/2021
Another busy week of hoops has come and gone. Texas is up to the top line, justifying their preseason #1 rating on T-Rank. However, it’s the Big Ten which continues to dominate the top of the seed list, with 4 of the top 9 teams coming from there.
Unfortunately, this looks like it could be a bit of a down year for mid-major at-large bids. Right now I have the Mountain West and WCC as 1 bid leagues, although Boise State and BYU are in the discussion. The Missouri Valley looks to be the best chance for multiple bids, although the two matchups between league leaders Drake and Loyola Chicago were postponed due to COVID.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Texas
2: Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas
3: Wisconsin, Houston, Tennessee, Clemson
4: West Virginia, Creighton, Texas Tech, UCLA
5: Virginia, Louisville, Ohio State, Oregon
6: Colorado, Rutgers, Saint Louis, Minnesota
7: Indiana, Florida State, Florida, Duke
8: Alabama, San Diego State, Connecticut, Arkansas
9: Oklahoma, Missouri, Drake, Purdue
10: Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State, LSU
11: Virginia Tech, VCU, Northwestern, Stanford
12: (Oklahoma State/USC), (Xavier/NC State), Furman, Toledo
13: Western Kentucky, Wright State, South Dakota State, Belmont
14: Winthrop, Georgia State, Liberty, New Mexico State
15: Abilene Christian, UC Irvine, Siena, Drexel
16: Navy, Bryant, (Southern Utah/UMBC), (Texas Southern/North Carolina Central)
First Four Out: BYU, Boise State, Seton Hall, Richmond
Next Four Out: Loyola Chicago, SMU, Providence, Maryland
Bracketology 12/31/2020
There hasn’t been a ton of movement in the last week, with the top line remaining unchanged. Some blue bloods are dropping in this update, with North Carolina and Michigan State now on the 10 line. There’s quite a vacuum developing in the ACC, with Clemson now the only protected seed from the league.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Iowa, Wisconsin
3: West Virginia, Houston, Texas Tech, Clemson
4: Illinois, Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State
5: Creighton, Virginia, Duke, Oregon
6: Louisville, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Arkansas
7: Florida, Missouri, Colorado, San Diego State
8: Syracuse, Indiana, Purdue, UCLA
9: Florida State, LSU, Virginia Tech, Northwestern
10: North Carolina, Maryland, Stanford, Michigan State
11: Western Kentucky, SMU, Oklahoma, NC State
12: (Connecticut/Richmond), (USC/BYU), Loyola Chicago, Furman
13: Toledo, Wright State, South Dakota State, Winthrop
14: Vermont, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Liberty
15: Belmont, UC Irvine, Abilene Christian, Hofstra
16: Colgate, Saint Peter’s, (Southern Utah/Bryant), (Texas Southern/Norfolk State)
First Four Out: Providence, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Xavier
Next Four Out: Mississippi, VCU, Utah, Alabama
Bracketology 12/23/2020
Non-conference play is largely over, and while November and December were light on MTEs, we had plenty of interesting games that will shape the bracketology picture for the season to come. The Big Ten and Big 12 have distanced themselves from the rest of the country, with 11 of the 16 protected seeds coming from one of those leagues.
It’s becoming clear that at-large resumes are going to look a bit weird this year with COVID schedule changes. For example, would a Kentucky team that goes 12-6 in the SEC, but is 15-13 overall make the field? Normally 12-6 in a power league is more than enough (unless you’re 2018 Nebraska), but there’s very little precedent for bids for teams that are two games over .500. Modeling bracketology is a tricky task, but even more so this year where resumes will look different.
The next update will likely come on New Year’s Eve. From there, updates will be one to two times a week through the rest of January.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Kansas
2: Wisconsin, Iowa, Texas, Tennessee
3: Houston, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Rutgers
4: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Clemson
5: Virginia, Missouri, Illinois, Duke
6: Oregon, Creighton, Indiana, Saint Louis
7: Colorado, Louisville, Florida State, Xavier
8: Providence, Florida, Purdue, North Carolina
9: Arkansas, San Diego State, Syracuse, UCLA
10: Stanford, LSU, Virginia Tech, NC State
11: Mississippi, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma, Connecticut
12: (Minnesota/USC), (SMU/Arizona), Loyola Chicago, Furman
13: Toledo, Wright State, South Dakota State, Winthrop
14: Vermont, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Liberty
15: Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, Abilene Christian, Hofstra
16: Colgate, Saint Peter’s, (Southern Utah/Bryant), (Texas Southern/North Carolina Central)
First Four Out: Maryland, BYU, Oklahoma State, Penn State
Next Four Out: Boise State, Richmond, VCU, Northwestern
Bracketology 12/10/2020
We’re a little more than two weeks into the season, and there hasn’t been a ton of movement at the top of the bracket. Gonzaga and Baylor have put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field, although the matchup between them was unfortunately canceled. Traditional blue bloods Duke and Kentucky have fallen quite a bit- I’m more confident that Duke can turn things around than Kentucky, who lost to a very average Georgia Tech team.
The protected seeds are littered with Big 12 and Big Ten teams, with 5 from each conference. The Big Ten has 8 teams on the top 6 seed lines- a nice performance in the Big Ten/ACC challenge certainly helped their cause, and this season could end up looking like last year with 10 or more teams in the tournament.
I’ll update things again around Christmas, some major conferences are starting conference play between now and then.
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Michigan State
2: Texas, Villanova, Houston, Iowa
3: Illinois, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Creighton
4: Texas Tech, Michigan, Louisville, Florida State
5: Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, Duke
6: Clemson, Rutgers, Saint Louis, Virginia
7: Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, San Diego State
8: UCLA, Marquette, Missouri, Xavier
9: Oregon, Richmond, Arizona State, NC State
10: Stanford, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State
11: LSU, USC, Loyola Chicago, Kentucky
12: (Maryland/Virginia Tech), (Oklahoma/Alabama), Furman, Western Kentucky
13: South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State, New Mexico State
14: Toledo, Georgia State, Wright State, Liberty
15: Abilene Christian, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Siena
16: Colgate, Drexel, (Southern Utah/Texas Southern), (Norfolk State/Bryant)
First Four Out: Arizona, Syracuse, Providence, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Minnesota, SMU, Utah, Cincinnati
Bracketology 11/25/2020
It’s going to be a bumpy ride, but college hoops season is finally back. The first games tip off today, which means it is time to update my preseason bracketology. There’s not a ton of changes from my previous bracket in October, although Villanova and Kansas did replace Wisconsin and Virginia on the 1 line. Still, there’s no clear elite teams in the sport this year, there’s probably over a dozen teams that could end up snagging a spot on the top line in March.
I’ll update my projections roughly once a week throughout December, and probably twice a week from January 1st onwards. The next update should then include a lot of the early season tournaments being played during Thanksgiving week.
1: Baylor, Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas
2: Wisconsin, Virginia, Illinois, West Virginia
3: Duke, Texas Tech, Texas, Michigan State
4; Iowa, Kentucky, Creighton, Michigan
5: Ohio State, Houston, Oregon, Florida State
6: Tennessee, Florida, Arizona State, Purdue
7: Louisville, UCLA, North Carolina, Rutgers
8: LSU, Indiana, Saint Louis, Miami (FL)
9: Memphis, Syracuse, Providence, Stanford
10: Alabama, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Connecticut
11: Richmond, Loyola Chicago, Virginia Tech, (Arizona/Marquette)
12: (Mississippi/Washington), San Diego State, Western Kentucky, Furman
13: Vermont, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Murray State
14: Georgia State, Wright State, Buffalo, UC Irvine
15: Winthrop, Siena, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16: Abilene Christian, Liberty, (Northeastern/Fairleigh Dickinson), (Norfolk State/Southern)
First Four Out: BYU, North Carolina State, Clemson, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Maryland, Dayton, USC, Utah