College Football Bracketology- Week 12 2024
Week 12 teased some chaos but never delivered it. We did see some playoff contenders lose, but outside of Tennessee (who lost to fellow contender Georgia), it was all teams on the edge of playoff contention who fell. We wish farewell to LSU, Kansas State, Missouri, Washington State and West Virginia who are out of contention after losses this weekend.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
The biggest change in this tier from last week is the addition of Georgia. After beating Tennessee, Georgia is a stone cold lock to make the playoff with two more wins, and hosts UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is squirrelly, but Georgia should still be a 17 point favorite or so in that game.
Ohio State, Texas and Penn State all saw their odds tick up a bit with routine wins this week. I’m also a bit more bullish about Indiana’s playoff chances than the betting market- I think an 11-1 Indiana is still very likely to make the field.
Tier 2: Probably In
All of these teams control their own destiny, but have at least one decent hurdle left to clear. Notre Dame is a 16 point favorite against Army this week but will likely only be a 6 point favorite or so at USC on Thanksgiving weekend. I have no clue what happens to a 10-2 Notre Dame team that loses to USC- I think it’s a coin flip whether they get into the field in that scenario.
Ole Miss travels to Florida this week as a 10 point favorite, and then hosts an awful Mississippi State team to close out the year. A 2-0 finish should lock up a bid.
Alabama is in an interesting scenario- they have two moderate tests (at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn) left. If they win both of those, they’re very likely to be in the SEC title game. If they lose the SEC title game to say, Texas, it’ll be interesting to see how the committee ranks a 10-3 Alabama team relative to say, 10-2 Tennessee. Based on historical precedent, my hunch is that they wouldn’t fall very far for losing the SEC title game.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Tennessee falls into this tier after their loss to Georgia. If we end up in the scenario with a logjam of 10-2 teams that I outlined last week, I think that Tennessee would be the odd team out. However, that scenario is still unlikely as there are plenty of possible upsets over the next two weeks. The Volunteers do still need to take care of business, most notably in their Rivalry Week game at Vanderbilt.
You might notice that Colorado’s odds to make the playoff are actually slightly lower than their odds to win the Big 12. I’m pricing in some small possibility (perhaps 1 in 10) that the Big 12 champion gets left out of the playoff. Suppose, for example that Colorado loses to Kansas this week, but still makes the Big 12 championship game and wins it (this scenario is not that unlikely- all it would require is 1 loss each from Iowa State and Arizona State).
In this scenario, we could be looking at 2 playoff spots for 10-3 Colorado, 12-1 Boise State and 12-1 Army. Recall that the top 5 conference champions get autobids to the playoff- there is no guarantee that all the P4 conferences get a team in if their champion is not one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions. I’m not certain that a 3 loss Big 12 champion makes the field in that scenario.
Tier 4: Longshots
The clear winner here this week was Arizona State, while the clear loser was BYU. Arizona State’s win and BYU’s loss combined to vault Arizona State from a 3% chance to win the Big 12 to a 22% chance. The two teams face off this weekend and the winner will just need one more win to make the conference title game.
Clemson’s playoff odds ticked up a bit after their win at Pittsburgh. I think there’s an outside shot Clemson gets an at-large bid if they knock off South Carolina and finish 10-2, but they’d need chaos elsewhere. Speaking of South Carolina, I added the Gamecocks to the longshots list this week- if chaos erupts in the next two weeks, a 9-3 South Carolina team with wins over Texas A&M, Clemson and Missouri could merit playoff consideration.
Group of Five
You’ll notice that for the first time, these numbers sum to greater than 100%. That’s due to the aforementioned scenario where two G5 teams get in in lieu of the Big 12 champion. Tulane is the biggest riser in this section- they are up to the top 20 in my ratings after demolishing Navy and secured their spot in the AAC title game. Tulane will be at least a touchdown favorite at home against Army and is likely one Boise State slip up away from the playoff.
College Football Picks Week 13 2024
I went 2-2 in my picks last week, but more importantly I cashed a few big tickets from the preseason. Florida over 4.5 wins and Arkansas State over 5.5 wins were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both cashed this week. I’ve been fortunate with Arkansas State- they’ve been quite bad this season and are very lucky to have six wins. Florida, on the other hand, has improved drastically over the course of the season and should make a bowl game.
In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Iowa State +9 against Utah in my preseason bets. That bet looks quite nice, as the line is now Iowa State -6.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Preseason Bets: +14.63 units
Total: +13.07 units
UNLV @ San Jose State (Friday, 9 PM Central)
By this point in the season, I normally have a good handle on every team and I’m very rarely surprised by a line. This is a rare exception- these are two good teams, and I was quite surprised to see San Jose State getting a touchdown at home. San Jose State has been a revelation under new HC Ken Niumatalolo and is the clear third best team in the Mountain West. UNLV is a good team as well but this line implies a bigger gap between these teams than is justified.
San Jose State +7.5 -100 (2 units)
San Jose State ML +230 (1 unit)
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6:30 PM Central)
Non-Michiganders likely do not appreciate how big of a rivalry this is. Western and Central are very similar sorts of schools and are competing against each other for recruits- there is a lot of bad blood between these schools. WMU got off to a hot start, but it was a bit fraudulent. CMU is a bad team, but they’re better than their record indicates thanks to some bad close game luck. You can toss out the records whenever these two old foes meet, and I think Western is a bit overrated so I like Central to cover.
Central Michigan +8 -110 (1 unit)
Baylor @ Houston (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Baylor HC Dave Aranda was thought to be a dead man walking earlier in the season, but after four straight wins it looks he has saved his job. Baylor’s offense has caught fire since switching to new QB Sawyer Robertson and they would control their own destiny for a playoff spot if they hadn’t allowed a shambolic Hail Mary against Colorado in September. Houston has been up and down all season but Baylor is just a plain old good team now.
Baylor -7.5 +100 (1 unit)
San Diego State @ Utah State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Utah State has had a lost season after HC Blake Anderson was let go in the offseason. However, San Diego State has been even worse than Utah State. The fast-paced Aztecs offense has been a disaster this season, as a bad fast-paced offense is a great recipe for a tired defense. I like Utah State to win this battle of two bad teams.
Utah State -4.5 -112 (1 unit)
Tulane to make Playoff +650 (2 units)
Tulane went on the road and destroyed Navy 35-0 this week. The Green Wave have rocketed into the top 20 of my ratings after winning their last three games by a combined score of 121-9. They’ve now clinched a berth in the AAC title game, where they’ll play Army.
They have two ways to make the playoff. They can either win the AAC and have Boise State slip up in the Mountain West title game, or they can win the AAC and hope for supreme chaos in the Big 12, where they could jump a 3 loss Big 12 champion for the last autobid. The first one is most likely- they’ll be serious favorites over Army and Boise State is looking mortal recently.
Toledo to win MAC +450 (1 unit)
This is another case of using the conference tiebreakers to my advantage. Even though Toledo has 2 losses in MAC play and there are three teams ahead of them with 1 loss (Bowling Green, Miami (OH) and Ohio), they nearly control their own destiny for the conference title. Miami (OH) and Bowling Green still have to play and Toledo plays Ohio this week. This means that if Toledo wins out, there will be at most a single 1 loss team in the conference. In a big tiebreaker jumble for 2 loss conference teams, Toledo is very likely to come out ahead due to having the superior conference strength of schedule.
College Football Bracketology- Week 11 2024
We’re going to begin this week’s bracketology with a very big picture view of the playoff field. After recent upsets in the ACC and Big 12 (Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State and Clemson all losing in the past two weeks), it looks increasingly likely that both leagues will have only one playoff bid. After we take out the Group of Five’s playoff spot, that likely leaves nine spots for the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. This scenario is not a certainty- for example, a 12-1 BYU team that loses the Big 12 title game would almost certainly get an at-large- but it is the most likely outcome.
Right now, there are 4 Big Ten teams and 7 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses, not to mention Notre Dame. If every remaining game this season is won by the favorite, this would knock out Missouri (who is a 13 point underdog at South Carolina this week) and Texas A&M (who will be a decent underdog against Texas). This would still leave 10 teams for 9 spots- and if the favorites prevail everywhere, that means a 10-2 Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama team is left on the chopping block.
It’s unlikely that this exact scenario materializes, as there will probably be an upset somewhere- suppose Ole Miss loses at Florida, or Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, or Notre Dame loses to USC, or something like that. However, it does lead us to two general rules for playoff selection this year:
Any Big Ten or SEC team with 2 or fewer losses should be in the field, unless we get a completely chalk finish to the season. Indiana is probably the one exception to this rule. This rule may or may not apply to Notre Dame- I’m incredibly unsure as to what will happen with a 10-2 Notre Dame.
Any ACC or Big 12 team with 0 or 1 losses will be in the field. The only possible team that could fit this criteria and not also be a conference champion is a 12-1 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game.
Most likely, after we fill out teams that fit in category (1) and (2), the field will be full. It’s possible we’ll have a spot or two left, at which point teams like 11-2 Miami, 10-2 Kansas State, 10-2 Clemson or 9-3 Georgia would enter consideration, just to name a few.
Now that we’ve set the table for the playoff picture, it’s time for some team by team analysis.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
Georgia and Miami fall out of the top tier this week, and are replaced by Penn State and Indiana. The Big Ten conference office must be salivating at the way the schedule worked this year- assuming chalk holds the rest of the way, the Big Ten will finish the regular season with Oregon at 12-0 and Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana at 11-1. They’d be nearly a lock to get 4 bids in the playoff, and there would be no controversy about the conference title game as Ohio State would have wins over both Penn State and Indiana.
Tier 2: Probably In
There are 5 teams in this tier and 5 teams in the top tier. As I outlined at the top of the post, it is impossible for all 10 of these teams to make the playoff- meaning that at least one team is set up for a disappointing finish to the season.
Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Alabama have relatively simple paths. I really struggle to see any of those three teams missing the field if they win out, and they all have relatively light schedules. The only games where I could see any of those teams as less than double digit favorites are Ole Miss @ Florida and Notre Dame @ USC.
The winner of this week’s Georgia/Tennessee game is going to be in excellent shape and will likely move to tier 1 next week. The loser is in some trouble. For Georgia, it would be their third loss- if any team is going to make the field with 3 losses, it would be a Georgia squad who owns a road win at Texas. For Tennessee, it would be their second loss, and they have the least impressive resume of any potential 2 loss SEC team- the win over Alabama is their only win over a likely bowl team. Tennessee also still has a tough trip to Vanderbilt where they’ll only be a touchdown favorite or so.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Interestingly, this tier contains two Big 12 teams and two ACC teams. We’re reasonably likely to see Miami play SMU for the ACC title and BYU play Colorado for the Big 12 title. The most likely scenario is that the winner of each game will be in the field and the loser will be out. If any team from this group is going to get an at-large bid, I’m most bullish on BYU’s chances. The Cougars have the best wins of the group (SMU, Kansas State) and should get into the field as a 12-1 conference title game loser.
I also would not rule out the possibility that either the ACC or the Big 12 fails to get a team in the playoff. For example, suppose that Colorado loses to Kansas but goes on to win the Big 12 at 10-3, and both Boise State and Army win out. I’m nearly certain that a 12-1 Boise State and 13-0 Army team would get into the playoff over a 10-3 Colorado.
Tier 4: Longshots
Washington State is getting a bit more respect from the playoff committee than I would’ve guessed- they are all the way up to 18th in the most recent rankings. I don’t think their playoff hopes are completely dead- if chaos strikes the SEC in the next few weeks, they only have to climb six or seven more spots in the rankings to get an at-large bid.
Everyone else in this section is still here on a technicality. LSU still has an outside shot at the SEC title, Missouri sucks but technically still has only 2 losses, and the Big 12 teams on the list all have outside paths to the conference championship.
Group of Five
Boise State’s playoff odds have steadily ticked up for many weeks in a row. I think that the Broncos control their own destiny for the playoff- even in the unlikely event that Army remains undefeated (Army is a 15.5 point underdog against Notre Dame), I think that a 12-1 Boise State team still gets into the field as an at-large.
Tulane travels to Navy this week. If Tulane wins, it guarantees a Tulane/Army AAC title game. If Navy wins, it keeps some wildcard scenarios open for the G5 berth. The craziest possible scenario I can imagine involves Navy winning the AAC (+800 or so), Colorado State winning the Mountain West (+650 or so) and Louisiana failing to win the Sun Belt (-130 or so).
College Football Picks Week 12 2024
I went 3-1 in my picks last week, Minnesota looked awful against Rutgers but my other three bets covered rather easily. I had yet another underdog I picked win straight up last week as Georgia Tech beat Miami as a 13.5 point dog.
I cashed some winners in my preseason futures this week as well- I was getting worried about Virginia over 4.5 wins but they upset Pitt for their fifth win. Fresno State’s disaster season continued with a loss to 2-7 Air Force, so I cashed my Fresno State under 8 wins ticket.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Preseason Bets: +9.17 units
Total: +6.88 units
Texas @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
About a month ago, I bet 4 units on Arkansas as a 14 point underdog at home against Tennessee. This game feels similar to me- Arkansas is an inconsistent team, but their ceiling is quite high and on their day they can play with anyone. Texas, meanwhile, looks shakier the longer you look at them- they only have one win over a team with a winning record. My model thinks Texas is more like a top 7 team than a top 3 team, so they could be in some trouble on the road against the plucky Razorbacks.
Arkansas +17 -110 (2 units)
Ball State @ Buffalo (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
First year Buffalo coach Pete Lembo was the head coach at Ball State many moons ago, and now faces his former team. Ball State has shown some signs of life this year, knocking off Northern Illinois and playing Vanderbilt close in recent weeks. Buffalo is a bottom half MAC team and should not be nearly a touchdown favorite at home.
Ball State +5 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse @ California (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Cal is a few plays away from a very special season. All of their losses are by five points or less and all of their wins are by double digits. The Golden Bears are an above average ACC team, and the same cannot be said of Syracuse. Syracuse has been the beneficiary of insane close game luck and is clearly the worse team despite their better record. As an added bonus, I plan to be in attendance at this game rooting for Cal.
California -7 -110 (1 unit)
Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It is a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is sniffing a bowl. The Demon Deacons are in the 80s in my power ratings and might have the worst roster in the power conferences. North Carolina has pulled themselves out of their mid-season tailspin and has better players at nearly every position.
North Carolina -10 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama to win SEC +650 (2 units)
LSU to win SEC +3500 (0.5 units)
I spent a long time digging through the SEC’s tiebreaker procedures today, and I really like both of these bets. To explain why, let me briefly explain how the SEC’s tiebreakers work. Right now, there are three teams with 1 loss in SEC play (Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee) and then several teams with 2 losses (Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri).
Texas plays Texas A&M in a few weeks, so it’s possible that Tennessee wins out and then plays the Texas/Texas A&M winner in the SEC title game. However, Tennessee is quite unlikely to win out as they have to travel to both Georgia and Vanderbilt (the Vols are a 10 point underdog to Georgia this week).
If Tennessee (or the Texas/Texas A&M winner) trip up, then 2 loss teams come into play. This is what will probably happen- we’ll get a ginormous group of 2 loss teams and have to pick one (or maybe two) title game participants out of the group. In a huge group tiebreaker, conference strength of schedule will rule the day.
Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule of all the contenders and is thus likely to come out on top in the tiebreaker. The other team that’s played a similarly tough schedule is LSU. In a massive tiebreaker jumble, it’s very likely one of these teams will come out on top.
One added note- because conference SOS is likely to be the deciding factor, games you might think are irrelevant could determine the conference race. For example, LSU has played Arkansas and Alabama has played Missouri, and the winner of the November 30th Arkansas/Missouri game could determine who makes the SEC title game.
SMU to win ACC +190 (2 units)
Once again, the tiebreaker math is in our favor with this bet. SMU is overwhelmingly likely to make the ACC title game, as they’d have to go 1-2 or worse down the stretch to miss the title game. My model would make SMU a very small underdog (2 points or so) against Clemson or Miami, so I think there’s some decent value here.
Clemson to miss Playoff -270 (4 units)
I will admit that this line is no longer available- I pounced on -270 when I saw it today, and it has moved to -350 in the few hours it took me to write this post. Clemson has two routes to the playoff- they can either win the ACC or get an at-large bid. To win the ACC, they’d have to (i) beat Pitt, (ii) hope Miami loses to an awful Wake Forest team or a mediocre Syracuse team and then (iii) beat SMU in the ACC title game. That is a pretty unlikely series of events. Their at-large odds are looking pretty slim: the giant group of 2 loss SEC teams will all be ahead of Clemson, and Clemson still has a very tricky game against South Carolina to tangle with.
Colorado to miss Playoff -130 (3 units)
I love this Colorado team as much as anyone else, but this line is a bit ridiculous. Colorado needs to win the Big 12 to make the playoff- if they lose again, they’ll have 3 losses and there’s simply no chance a 3 loss Big 12 team makes the playoff. Colorado has two games left that will be relative tossups- a trip to Kansas and the potential Big 12 title game. They also need to navigate a home game against rival Utah. They’re going to be favored in every remaining game, but only very slight favorites in two of them, and this line is just not quite right.
College Football Bracketology- Week 10 2024
After a few weeks of chalk, week 9 gave us some decent upsets that shook up the playoff race a little. Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State were teams 9, 12, 14 and 15 in my playoff odds a week ago, and all of them lost this week. That opened up the door quite a bit for teams like BYU, SMU and Indiana who saw their odds rise significantly.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
It’s no surprise that these were the top five teams in the committee’s first in-season rankings. Any team in this group (except Oregon, who is a stone cold lock) would be able to handle one more loss with no trouble but would be in some serious danger with two more losses. If I had to pick one team in this tier to be worried about, it might be Georgia, who has to navigate games against Ole Miss and Tennessee in back to back weeks.
Tier 2: Probably In
Penn State drops from the top tier to the second tier after their loss to Ohio State. Their trickiest remaining game is a trip to Minnesota- I reckon they’ll be around 8 point favorites there- but overall their schedule is manageable. I think a 10-2 Penn State would get in, but I’m not totally certain.
Notre Dame was hurt by the committee’s first rankings, I expected them to be around 8th and they came in at 10th. They’ll be fine if they win out, but I think a 10-2 Notre Dame is a coin toss to get in.
Alabama’s season will come down to this weekend’s game against LSU. Their last few games are quite easy, so if they win this one they’ll likely finish 10-2 and easily make it into the field. If they lose, they’ll be praying for chaos elsewhere- I don’t think we’ll see any 3 loss teams in the playoff this year.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
BYU and Colorado were both huge winners this week despite being on bye, as fellow Big 12 contenders Iowa State and Kansas State lost. Both teams face tricky road tests this week- BYU is a 4 point favorite at Utah and Colorado is a 3 point favorite at Texas Tech.
Much like Alabama, Ole Miss’ season likely comes down to this weekend’s game. If they beat Georgia, they’ll be very likely to go 10-2 and should get into the field. If they lose, they pick up a third loss and are pretty much sunk. Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU also must win this week to stay in contention.
SMU was the biggest winner of week 9. Not only did they beat Pitt in convincing fashion, but Clemson also lost to Louisville. SMU holds the tiebreaker over Clemson, so they’d have to go 1-2 in their remaining regular season games to miss the ACC title game. It seems safe to say SMU will be playing for a spot in the playoff on conference championship weekend.
Tier 4: Longshots
Clemson falls into the longshot tier after their blowout loss to Louisville. The Tigers do not hold the tiebreaker over Miami or SMU and thus need a ton of help to make the ACC title game. Even if they win out, I am not optimistic on the playoff odds of a 10-2 Clemson team that doesn’t yet have a good win on their schedule.
Last week’s Big 12 chaos means that there are several teams on the fringe of the conference race who I added here. Texas Tech has the cleanest path to the playoff of any team outside the initial committee top 25- if they win out and both Kansas State and Iowa State lose once, they’re in the conference title game.
Group of Five
This remains Boise State’s race to lose. The Broncos were a bit higher than I expected in the initial committee rankings- they clocked in at 12th when I expected to see them around 15th. A 12-1 Boise State team should thus avoid the 12 seed, and if some upsets happen in the ACC or Big 12, might even be able to get the 4 seed and a bye to the second round of the playoff.
If Army and Boise State both win out, I suspect we will see them both in the playoff. However, that would require Army to upset Notre Dame as a 14 point underdog, so we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
College Football Picks Week 11 2024
Last week was a mess, led by Virginia Tech. The Hokies surprisingly were without QB Kyron Drones and star RB Bhayshul Tuten due to injury. They still jumped out to a 21-3 lead only to completely disintegrate late against Syracuse.
The overall story of the season is a bit better than the numbers you see below- I have a lot of futures bets (Indiana to make Playoff, BYU to make playoff, SMU to make ACC title game etc.) that are looking quite good. I haven’t included them in the “preseason bets” tally because they’re not settled yet, but I reckon I have about an extra 20-25 units in expected profit in these sorts of bets.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Preseason Bets: +4.57 units
Total: -0.27 units
UNLV @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
Hawai’i is a vastly improved team this year. HC Timmy Chang took over a complete dumpster fire from previous HC Todd Graham and it has taken him some time to right the ship. However, he finally has a roster full of his recruits now and it is paying dividends in back to back upset wins over Nevada and Fresno State. UNLV is a solid top 50 team but travel to the islands is always tough for mainland teams and the market has not caught up to how improved Hawai’i is.
Hawai’i +13 -110 (2 units)
Minnesota @ Rutgers (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Rutgers had a solid season going in September but the bottom has completely fallen out for them. They lost at home to a bad UCLA team and were shellacked by Wisconsin and USC. Minnesota might just be the best team in college football that no one is talking about- they’re up to 33rd in my ratings- and has been hugely improved on offense in the last few weeks.
Minnesota -4.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Miami has survived their fair share of close calls this year, to say the least. Their offense is the best in the sport but their defense is now outside my top 40- no serious national title contender should be getting torn up by the Duke offense. Georgia Tech fell off the national radar after they lost to Syracuse, but their schedule has been brutal and I think they are unlucky to only be 5-4. Georgia Tech is optimistic that QB Haynes King will return from injury in time for this game and I think the Yellow Jackets have a chance at the upset.
Georgia Tech +13 -110 (2 units)
Rice @ Memphis (Friday, 8 PM Central)
Rice fired HC Mike Bloomgren before last week’s game and immediately put up their best performance of the season in a dominating win over Navy. I’ve heard rumblings that Bloomgren had lost the locker room so I’m not shocked to see a sudden improvement. Memphis is falling apart a bit- they’ve underperformed by double digits in each of their last three games- and I think they’re a bit overrated.
Rice +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
Indiana to make the Playoff -150 (2 units)
Indiana has three games left on their schedule- home games against Michigan and Purdue and a road game at Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 13.5 point favorites against Michigan this weekend, and Purdue might be the worst power conference team in the country. Even if Indiana gets killed by Ohio State (which is probable- my model has Ohio State as the best team in the country by a decent margin), I still think an 11-1 Indiana is a reasonably safe bet to make the playoff.
College Football Bracketology- Week 9 2024
After a chaotic start to October, chalk has ruled the day in the last two weeks. LSU was the only playoff contender to lose last weekend, and they lost to fellow playoff contender Texas A&M.
As a result, the bar to make the playoff keeps going up. Earlier in the month, it looked like a guarantee that any 10-2 power conference team would make it, and I was even talking about 9-3 SEC teams sneaking into the field.
I now project there to be 14.3 power conference teams with 2 or fewer losses. Since there’s 11 bids for power conference teams, this means that there will be a few 10-2 teams that miss the field. This is bad news for teams that could have weaker 2 loss resumes (Indiana, SMU, Kansas State, Clemson) as well as longshot hopefuls like Washington State.
Tier 1: Definitely In
The one change from last week is that I’ve added Miami to this tier. The Hurricanes demolished Florida State over the weekend and will be double digit favorites in every remaining game. A 12-0 Miami team will make the playoff even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game- but an 11-1 Miami team that loses the ACC title game would be in a lot of danger. However, as Miami continues to clear obstacles one at a time, it looks unlikely they’ll have to worry about that scenario.
For everyone else in this tier, the path to an at-large bid remains simple. 10-2 will almost certainly get the job done, 9-3 almost certainly won’t. There are some rare exceptions (I could see a path for 9-3 Georgia to get in, and I could see a path for 10-2 Penn State to not get in) but it should generally hold true.
Tier 2: Probably In
Texas A&M and Indiana are the week’s biggest winners in this group- both saw their playoff odds rise by about 10% after solid wins. I was a little surprised to not see Texas A&M’s odds a bit higher. However, they have deceptively tricky road trips against South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a rivalry showdown against Texas. I give them only a 60% shot of making through that stretch 2-1 or better.
Alabama is the only team in this tier with multiple losses. I feel increasingly certain that a 9-3 Alabama team is not going to make the field, so their season will likely come down to a road trip to Baton Rouge.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
I think most people will be surprised to see Clemson in this tier. I certainly disagree with the consensus on this one- I bet Clemson to miss the playoff at +155 this week- but I think the math is solid. Suppose Clemson wins the rest of their regular season games and then loses to Miami in the ACC title game- they’d be 11-2 with only 1 or 2 ranked wins. They’d certainly be behind teams like 10-2 Alabama, 10-2 Texas A&M and 10-2 Penn State. Of course, they might just win the ACC and make this a moot point, but I think their at-large odds are growing slim.
This tier includes a trio of Big 12 teams in BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State. I think the best chance to get multiple Big 12 teams into the field is for either BYU or Iowa State to make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and then lose. I’m hard pressed to imagine a 1 loss Big 12 team missing the field- especially BYU who has an excellent non-conference win at SMU- but the path for a 2 loss Big 12 team to get in is quickly narrowing.
Tier 4: Longshots
This tier is shrinking rapidly. The main reason why is that the Big 12 race has narrowed considerably- earlier in October I still had 8 Big 12 teams on my radar screen, now I only have 5 (and TCU’s path is quite narrow).
In the ACC, Pitt took a nice step forward with their win over Syracuse last week. I still have the Panthers as projected underdogs in three more games, starting with this weekend’s trip to SMU. If they win that game, they’ll move up a tier.
Perhaps I could have included Virginia Tech in this tier- if they win out (they still have to play Clemson, among others), they’re a coin flip to be in the ACC title game.
Group of Five
The big news in the G5 this week was Boise State’s win over UNLV. Boise State is a stone cold lock for the Mountain West title game, and if they win it, they’re in the playoff (so long as Army loses once, which is very likely).
Speaking of Army, I recently added a bet on them to make the playoff at 15/1 odds. If Boise State slips up in the Mountain West title game (which is quite possible- they’ll likely have to travel to UNLV again), the American champion will be next in line for the G5 playoff berth. Army is already 6-0 in American play and is the favorite to win the American at +130.
College Football Picks Week 10 2024
Last week was pretty much a wash for me. I was celebrating when UTSA was up 35-7 on Tulsa at halftime, only for the Roadrunners to execute the collapse of the century to lose 46-45. Outside of that game, Vanderbilt, Bowling Green and Troy all covered, and none of them were ever really in doubt.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Preseason Bets: +4.57 units
Total: +7.00 units
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been worse than their record all season, and the rent finally came due last week in a blowout loss to Pitt. It wasn’t just Kyle McCord’s five interceptions- Syracuse is still one of the least talented rosters in the P4. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, was a preseason sleeper pick for a reason- the bones of an ACC contender are there. Their season went sideways with some early losses in September but they’ve been excellent in recent weeks and they should roll here.
Virginia Tech -2.5 -110 (4 units)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I am 3-0 picking against Appalachian State this season and am going to do so again here. App State is a proud program with a decades long winning tradition, but their roster has fallen into disarray. Old Dominion now looks like the team to beat in the Sun Belt East- they demolished Georgia Southern last week and are headed for the best year in their program history.
Old Dominion +1.5 -110 (3 units)
New Mexico State @ FIU (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Conference USA has one group of decent teams and one group of bad teams. These are two of the latter- FIU has already lost to FCS Monmouth this year and New Mexico State is a bottom 10 team in FBS. I don’t think there’s a ton of daylight between these two teams as FIU has already lost to some of the dregs of the league, such as UTEP. New Mexico State should be able to keep this close.
New Mexico State +10 -110 (2 units)
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Oklahoma State all season. I wish I had bet against them more- they’ve gone from the top 15 of the AP Poll to 0-5 in Big 12 play in the span of a month. Arizona State has been one of the surprises of the season- they were the consensus pick for last in the Big 12 but are already 2-2 in the league. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful for this game- if he does play, expect this line to move further towards ASU.
Arizona State +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Hawaii had the worst roster in the sport when Todd Graham left the program in a smoldering crater. They dominated Nevada in a 34-13 win last week and are comfortably out of the bottom 10 in my ratings for the first time in years. Fresno State has been overrated all year as QB Mikey Keene has regressed significantly.
Hawaii +13 -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been betting against Ole Miss all year, and I regret not picking Oklahoma +20.5 last week. This is a really tricky test for them- Arkansas has likely saved HC Sam Pittman’s job with an impressive 5-3 season. They’re a solid mid-tier SEC team and should not be nearly double digit home underdogs against an underwhelming Ole Miss squad.
Arkansas +8 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson to miss the Playoff +155 (2 units)
As I described in last week’s bracketology, the Playoff bubble is looking much stronger than expected. That’s bad news for Clemson- the Tigers will obviously make the playoff if they win the ACC, but I am growing increasingly skeptical of their at-large chances. They’re yet to beat a single team with a winning record and they’d be at the back of the line among 2 loss teams given their weak schedule. I think Clemson is around a coin flip to make the playoff so this presents some good value.
Army to make the Playoff +1500 (1 unit)
Army is currently undefeated and they essentially have two paths to make the playoff. The first path is to win out- this would require beating Notre Dame (they’ll be about 14 point underdogs) as well as winning every other game, including the AAC title game. Overall, I think this has about a 5% chance of happening.
The second path is to lose to Notre Dame, but win every other game. This would put them at 11-1, and they’d need some help. Namely, they’d need Boise State to lose the Mountain West. A 12-1 Boise State would get the G5 bid over an 11-1 Army, but an 11-1 Army would get the G5 bid over any other possible challenger. I give this scenario perhaps a 10% chance of happening.
This line seems pretty mispriced to me- I think it might be +1500 because people do not realize that the Army/Navy game will not be considered in the playoff selection process, as it happens the week after the playoff bracket is revealed. The Navy game will be a tough one, so Army’s chances of going undefeated are a good bit higher if you don’t include that matchup.
SMU over 2.5 wins in November -150 (6 units)
I cannot believe this line. SMU has 4 games in October, and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this bet.
They’re 7.5 point favorites against Pitt this week, and I think they should be closer to 10 point favorites.
They’ll be around 10.5 point favorites against Boston College and Virginia, and I think they should be around 14 point favorites in each game.
They finish the season with Cal, where they’ll be around 9 point favorites.
This line is not consistent with their remaining schedule, and I’m bullish on SMU anyways. I love this line.
Kansas State over 2.5 wins in November -175 (3 units)
Like SMU, Kansas State has 4 games in November and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this. They’ll be a pick’em against Iowa State but will be double digit favorites in all of their other games. Kansas State is now my highest rated team in the Big 12 and this is another clear bet.
College Football Picks Week 9 2024
I had another solid week last week. It would’ve been nice to get Nevada at +3.5 instead of +3, as I pushed when I could’ve won if I bet the opening line instead. Temple and Auburn both covered easily, and Auburn nearly won outright.
Unfortunately, loyal readers may remember that I bet Oklahoma +6 against Ole Miss back in the preseason. The Sooners and Rebels face off this weekend, and the line is now Ole Miss -20.5.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Preseason Bets: +6.57 units
Total: +8.36 units
UTSA @ Tulsa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulsa last week against Temple and I’m going to do it again here. The Golden Hurricane made a disastrous hire when they brought in an awful retread in Kevin Wilson last year. It was made worse by the fact that Tulsa alum GJ Kinne (and now hugely successful Texas State coach) was available. They’ve been a total disaster this year as we saw last week- I’m going to continue fading them until further notice.
UTSA -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Texas @ Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)
Vanderbilt pulled off the upset of the year against Alabama a few weeks ago and now looks to do the same thing against Texas. I’ve been low on the Longhorns all season- they are “only” fifth in my ratings right now when they are in the top three in most other computer models. Vanderbilt has played to the level of their competition all year, looking great against good teams and awful against bad teams. I think they can give Texas a decent game.
Vanderbilt +19.5 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green @ Toledo (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is one of the best rivalry games in the MAC, as these teams are separated by less than 50 miles along I-75. Bowling Green may be 3-4 but I think they might be the best team in the MAC- they played Texas A&M and Penn State very close. They’re also the only team in the MAC that’s as talented as Toledo. Toledo’s offense has been anemic in recent games and I think this is the game where they lose their grip on the MAC.
Bowling Green +3 -110 (1 unit)
Troy @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Arkansas State was one of my favorite teams in the preseason, but they have been disappointing this season. Luckily for me, they are 4-3, but they have needed smoke and mirrors to get there. Most notably, they were bailed out but the referees in a win over FCS Central Arkansas. Troy has taken a huge step back from the Jon Sumrall era but they still might be more talented than Arkansas State.
Troy +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame to win the National Championship +4000 (0.5 units)
Everyone stopped paying attention to Notre Dame after their loss to Northern Illinois, but the Fighting Irish have been very solid since then. After a dominating win over Georgia Tech last week, they’re up to third in my ratings. I think they’re more likely than not to make the playoff, and if they get there, only Ohio State and Georgia look like clearly superior teams. At 40/1, I like a longshot bet on the Irish.
College Football Bracketology- Week 8 2024
A lot of people have been talking about this college football season as a chaotic one. While it’s true that there are no dominating teams this year, week 8 did not bring chaos. In fact, ranked teams went a perfect 14-0 against unranked teams. This is bad news for a lot of teams on the fringes of the playoff hunt- teams like Ole Miss and SMU are running out of time.
Tier 1: Definitely In
Georgia joins this tier after their win at Texas. UGA would probably have to lose to both Ole Miss and Tennessee to miss the playoff, although the upcoming Cocktail Party against Florida is looking a bit trickier than expected as well. Texas stays strong at 88% to make the playoff despite the loss- they would have to lose two more games to be in any danger of missing the playoffs and only face one more top 20 opponent (a trip to Texas A&M).
Tier 2: Probably In
Miami and Tennessee were the week’s two big winners in this group. Miami cleared their biggest remaining hurdle with a road win over Louisville and is now 50/50 to go 12-0. Tennessee, meanwhile, still has to go to Georgia but other than that does not leave the state for the rest of the season. As long as they take care of business against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, they should be in the field.
LSU hosts Texas A&M this weekend. The winner will be the only team undefeated in SEC conference play and will likely have around a 75% chance of making the playoff. The loser will likely need to win out to make the field.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
The model says that Alabama is exactly a coin flip to make the playoff, which feels about right. With the playoff bubble looking stronger, I think that a 9-3 Alabama team probably will not make the field. They’d have a chance, but I’d rather not be a three loss Crimson Tide team. The good news for them is that outside of a trip to Baton Rouge, they’ll be double digit favorites in every other game.
I’ve been high on Indiana’s playoff chances all season, and they played their best game of the season in a 56-7 demolition of Nebraska. However, Indiana could be hurt by the strong bubble- if other teams in this tier keep winning, a 10-2 Hoosiers squad probably would not make the cut. Keep in mind that Indiana still has to travel to Ohio State. QB Kurtis Rourke is out for multiple weeks which doesn’t help matters.
The Big 12 is going to need their trio of Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State to keep winning if they want multiple teams in the field. My model thinks Kansas State is the best team of the three, but they also are the only one with a loss. Unless chaos erupts in the SEC, it’ll be hard for a two-loss Big 12 team to get into the field. My personal guess is that BYU slips up down the stretch and Iowa State and Kansas State play for the conference title and both sneak into the field.
Tier 4: Longshots
SMU and Missouri are the only teams here with real at-large chances. Both teams won this week but saw their playoff odds hold steady as teams in front of them all won as well.
Everyone else in this tier is either an oddball case (Washington State) or a team looking to get an automatic bid by winning their conference. If anyone in this group is going to make a run, I’d put my money on a Colorado team that has improved significantly and should be favored in every remaining game.
Group of Five
The biggest development in the G5 has been Army and Navy’s continued winning streaks. Both teams are not just winning- they are covering nearly every week and rocketing up my ratings. Both teams still have to play Notre Dame, but a 12-1 Army or Navy with a loss to Notre Dame could still get in the playoff, especially if Boise State slips up.
Boise State travels to UNLV on Friday night in what looks to be the G5 game of the year. Ashton Jeanty and Boise have snagged all the headlines this year, but UNLV might have their best team in school history and has their own star in WR Ricky White. Every team in this section other than Boise is hoping for the Broncos to slip up.
This Week’s Projection
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
5 Oregon vs. 12 Boise State
6 Texas vs. 11 Kansas State
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU
Once again I’ve decided to have some fun with my projection as opposed to just slotting in the most likely team into each spot. I’m assuming here that Georgia wins out and wins the SEC, while Kansas State sneaks into the field over teams like Alabama and Indiana after losing the Big 12 title game.
College Football Picks Week 8 2024
Last week was a bit unfortunate as I bet on two big underdogs who got blown out. The good news is that I had plenty of success elsewhere- my huge preseason bets against Ole Miss took a big step forward when they lost to LSU, and my preseason bets against Utah look phenomenal after their loss to Arizona State.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Preseason Bets: +5.27 units
Total: +5.51 units
Tulsa @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
A few weeks ago we were talking about Temple as one of the worst teams in FBS. Since then they beat Utah State and nearly beat UConn, and are now outside of my bottom 10. Instead, it’s Tulsa that looks like one of the worst teams in FBS. The Golden Hurricane might just have the worst defense in FBS and have been smoked by Army and North Texas in back to back weeks. Tulsa is one of the least talented teams in FBS and I love fading them here.
Temple -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawai’i @ Washington State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
When Timmy Chang took over at Hawai’i he inherited possibly the worst situation in FBS. Now the Rainbow Warriors are showing some signs of life- last week’s loss to league power Boise State was much closer than the 28-7 score indicates and Chang’s squad hung with UCLA earlier in the season. Hawai’i is better than their 1-4 record and Washington State is worse than their 5-1 record.
Hawai’i +19.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Missouri (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Auburn is the best 2-4 team college football has seen in a few years. They’ve had awful turnover luck- they would have beaten Oklahoma if Payton Thorne did not throw a heinous interception and they outplayed both Arkansas and Cal in those losses. I’ve been down on Missouri all season and they were absolutely exposed in a blowout loss to Texas A&M- they have no running game and no offense to speak of outside of Luther Burden.
Auburn +7.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State @ Nevada (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
Nevada upset Oregon State last week- this was their third win of the season and it meant that I cashed my Nevada over 2.5 wins ticket from the preseason. I also have a Fresno State under 8 wins ticket that is looking quite good as the Bulldogs are now 3-3. I’ll continue with what’s been working here- Fresno QB Mikey Keene has regressed this year while Nevada has a more talented roster than you’d think with several P5 transfers.
Nevada +3 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri under 9.5 wins -175 (5 units)
I’ve been a seller of Missouri all season but now is the time to take my stand. The Tigers need to lose two more games for this bet to hit. They’ll be huge underdogs at Alabama, and favorites of around a touchdown or less against Auburn, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arkansas. This line makes absolutely no sense to me, especially when you consider that Missouri is +340 to make the playoff and they have very little chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I absolutely love this bet.
BYU to make the Playoff +450 (1 unit)
BYU is +500 to win the Big 12 and +450 to make the playoff. I think that +500 to win the Big 12 is pretty fair, but the latter line implies they have almost no chance to get an at-large bid. I don’t agree with that- a BYU team that goes 12-0 and then loses the Big 12 title game will obviously make the field and a BYU team that goes 11-1 and then loses the Big 12 title game could get in. They already have good wins over fellow playoff contenders Kansas State and SMU, which is more than most potential at-large candidates can say at this point in the season. I think this is worth a flier.
College Football Bracketology- Week 7 2024
I’ve been publishing weekly bracketology updates for the whole season, but starting this week I will be devoting a whole weekly post to previewing the playoff field. Over the last few weeks I’ve been building a model to simulate the selection process for the 12 team playoff. Much like college basketball bracketology, the goal of this is to predict what the committee will do, not what I think they should do. Each week I’ll break down the resume of all of the main contenders and also give my projections as to the most likely field.
Tier 1: Definitely In
These are the 4 top ranked teams in the AP poll, and for good reason. Texas, Oregon and Penn State would have to go 3-3 down the stretch to be in danger of missing the playoff. Penn State is in marginally more danger than the other two, given that they’re the only one of the group outside of the top 5 in my ratings and they have some tricky road trips on the schedule.
Ohio State remains in a good position despite their loss this week. Their trip to State College in early November is likely to determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes lose two more regular season games, they’d probably miss the field, but that’s unlikely for what’s still the #1 team in my power ratings.
Tier 2: Probably In
One general rule of thumb to know this year is that 10-2 Big Ten and SEC teams are definitely going to make the field, while 9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams probably won’t. 9-3 Georgia would have the best chance of any potential 9-3 team, thanks to their win over Clemson. Assuming they win their other games (Florida, UMass, Georgia Tech), the Dawgs will be feeling good if they go 2-1 against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee and shaky if they go 1-2.
The winner of this week’s Alabama/Tennessee game will move into the “definitely in” tier. The loser will be a bit less than 50/50 to make the field. I’d rather be the Tide than the Vols, both because they’re a better team and because their big November road trip (LSU) is easier than Tennessee’s (Georgia).
Miami and Clemson are both rooting for the other to keep winning. I think that a potential 11-2 loser of a Miami/Clemson ACC title game is likely to be right on the cutline for the last spot in the field. The best win either team has is probably Miami’s win over Virginia Tech, which is not saying much at this point in the season.
Notre Dame will easily be in the field at 11-1 and is a huge question mark at 10-2. Their schedule is riddled with games that are trickier than you’d think, such as road trips to Georgia Tech and USC.
Iowa State has been my projected Big 12 champion all season and they continue to impress. They’ll be at least touchdown favorites in their next four games. I think that the Big 12 has enough depth that a 10-2 Iowa State team has a shot at the playoff, but they’d be behind teams like Notre Dame and Clemson in the pecking order.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
LSU and Texas A&M continue to see their odds tick up. They are the two SEC teams other than Texas who are yet to lose a conference game, as they took their losses on opening weekend in non conference action. One possible interesting scenario to monitor- it’s possible that either team ends up 10-2 and 7-1 in SEC play. If they then lose the conference title game to finish 10-3, it’ll be curious to see if the committee punishes them for that.
Ole Miss has by far the best odds of any 2 loss team. There’s a few reasons for this- first, they’re good (they’re ninth in my ratings, even after the LSU loss), second, their remaining schedule is easy (other than Georgia, they’ll be touchdown favorites in every game). I give them around a 25% chance of winning out and some chance of making it in at 9-3.
Indiana continues to boost their playoff odds. They’re undefeated and have one game they’re huge underdogs in (at Ohio State) and several they’re mild favorites in (Nebraska, Michigan, Washington). If they can take care of business and win all of those they’ll be in the field at 11-1.
BYU and Kansas State look like the clear second and third contenders in the Big 12 behind Iowa State. BYU is still outside the top 25 of my ratings but they already have wins over Kansas State and SMU and a light November schedule. Kansas State saw their odds tick up a good bit after a road win at Colorado.
SMU might be the most interesting team in the whole playoff picture. They project to be 7 to 14 point favorites in all 6 remaining games, and clearly will make the field at 11-1. They also could feasibly not make the ACC title game in that scenario despite being undefeated in conference play as they play neither Miami nor Clemson.
Tier 4: Longshots
We have a whole bevy of Big 12 teams in this tier. None of them have compelling at-large cases, but all of them could factor into the crowded Big 12 title picture. If I had to pick one team to emerge from the pack, it would probably be Colorado, given their clear upside and the fact that they don’t have to play any of the top 3 teams in the league.
Louisville still controls their playoff destiny as they face both Miami and Clemson in the coming weeks, and thus control their own path to the ACC title game. Pitt is undefeated but has done so in the most confounding way possible and has three games left they’ll be significant underdogs in.
Missouri and Oklahoma both have longshot chances at the playoff. Missouri has the weakest schedule in the SEC and thus can only afford one more loss to have a chance at the playoff. Oklahoma has such a brutal schedule that if they can somehow find their way to 9-3, they will probably make it in.
Group of Five
Boise State remains the clear leader here. The Broncos have to travel to UNLV in two weeks and likely will have to do so again for the conference title game. Every bracket projection has the Broncos as the 12 seed, but they’re already 15th in the polls and if they win out I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hosting a first round game. If UNLV knocks off Boise in the Mountain West title game they’ll have a great shot at the playoff.
Elsewhere, Tulane, Army and Navy lead an interesting American race. An undefeated Army or Navy would surely leapfrog Boise State, as both teams still get to play Notre Dame. Tulane is an interesting contender as well, they are the only top 30 team in the G5 outside of Boise State.
One outlier possibility to keep an eye on- I wouldn’t sleep on the chance that 2 G5 teams could get into the field. Suppose, for example, that a 10-3 West Virginia or Texas Tech team wins the Big 12 while we have both a 12-1 Boise State and an 11-1 Navy team. If something wacky happens in the Big 12 there’s a real chance their conference champion finishes behind 2 G5 teams.
This Week’s Projection
1 Texas
2 Oregon
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
5 Penn State vs. 12 Boise State
6 Georgia vs. 11 Indiana
7 Ohio State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama
This projection is still mostly an exercise in guesswork. I decided to spice things up and not just pick the most likely scenario everywhere- for example I have decided to put Indiana in the field over say, Clemson. At this point in the season, I do find it more useful to look at things from a probabilistic perspective as I did at the top of the post as opposed to focusing on the single most likely scenario, but it’s still a fun exercise.
College Football Picks Week 7 2024
Week 6 was my best week of the season thus far. My two biggest bets both covered by multiple touchdowns, Arkansas won outright as a 14 point underdog and Navy demolished Air Force. My futures bets also had a great week as I got important wins from both Florida and Arkansas State.
Unfortunately I have a smaller slate of bets this week, no picks look as appetizing to me as the 3 and 4 unit plays I’ve had the last two weeks. It’s important to be able to pick your spots during the season and be comfortable having weeks where you have fewer bets every now and again.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Preseason Bets: +4.46 units
Total: +7.70 units
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (Wednesday, 6:30 PM Central)
This year’s New Mexico State is much worse than the 2023 version that made it to the CUSA title game. Still, they have shown the faintest signs of life this year, giving Liberty a tough test in a one possession loss. Jacksonville State is just inside the top 100 in my ratings and should not be a three touchdown favorite against a team with any sort of pulse.
New Mexico State +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Missouri @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Missouri has made some strange scheduling decisions in recent years including a road trip to Wyoming. This one takes the cake though- no power conference team in their right mind would schedule a trip to UMass. Much like the New Mexico State/Jacksonville State game, this game is a mismatch but the spread is several points too high. UMass is no longer one of the bottom three teams in FBS and Missouri is out of my top 25 after a disastrous performance against Texas A&M. I like a small play on UMass here.
UMass +28.5 -110 (1 unit)
SMU to make the ACC Title Game +190 (2 units)
I’m adding a futures bet on SMU as well this week. The ACC title race will come down to Miami, Clemson and SMU- all three are undefeated in conference play and strangely, none of them play each other. SMU has the easiest conference schedule of the three, which is both a blessing and a curse. It means that they stand a good chance at running the table (I give them a 30% chance of winning out) but it also means they will lose a strength of schedule tiebreaker against Miami and Clemson. Regardless, Miami or Clemson will probably slip up somewhere and SMU has rocketed up to 14th in my ratings, so I think there’s some decent value here.
Oklahoma to make the Playoff +1500 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma is probably the only team other than Georgia that is more likely than not to make the playoff at 9-3. The Sooners have a brutal schedule, as their most likely path to 9-3 would have wins over Alabama, LSU and Tulane and quality losses to Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
The most likely scenario is that they get destroyed by Texas this weekend and nothing happens with this bet. However, I think that if they win, they’ll be more likely than not to make the playoff and that makes this a nice longshot flier.
San Jose State to make the playoff +25000 (0.1 units)
If you’re going to take a long shot to make the playoff, I like SJSU at 250/1. They have only one loss so far this season, on the road against a good Washington State team. They are currently 16/1 to win the Mountain West which is pretty fair. If they win the Mountain West, they’ll be in the mix to make the playoff- they’d need a team with a few losses to win the American, and also some stumbles from James Madison and Liberty. I think that they have around a one in six shot of making the playoff as the Mountain West champs which means there’s some value at 250/1.
College Football Ratings- Week 6 2024
This Saturday was one of those special days of college football that we’ll remember for a while. I have been a big supporter of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia for a long time- loyal readers will remember my big bet on New Mexico State last year when he was the Aggies’ quarterback. That was my best bet of 2023 by a mile, and I was very happy to see him lead Vanderbilt to the upset this Saturday.
Bracketology
I’ve added projected end of season records to my bracketology this week. The goal of this is to provide a realistic simulation of the rest of the season according to my model. For example, even though Ohio State will be favored in every remaining game, they’re only small favorites against Oregon and Penn State and are a good bit more likely to go 12-1 than 13-0.
1 Ohio State (12-1)
2 Texas (11-2)
3 Miami (12-1)
4 Iowa State (11-2)
I have a preseason ticket on Iowa State to make the Big 12 title game at +450. It’s now +135, a good bit above every other Big 12 team. I’ve been projecting the Cyclones as my Big 12 champion in every bracketology so far this season and still view them as the best team in the league.
12 Boise State (12-1) @ 5 Oregon (11-2)
11 Texas A&M (9-3) @ 6 Alabama (10-3)
10 Georgia (9-3) @ 7 Penn State (10-2)
9 Notre Dame (10-2) @ 8 Clemson (11-2)
Alabama would probably have to go 8-4 to miss the playoff. In this projection I assume they go 10-2 and then lose to Texas in the SEC title game, but a 9-3 ‘Bama with wins at LSU and vs. Georgia would also be quite likely to get in.
Texas A&M was the biggest beneficiary of this weekend’s chaos. Since Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia all have one loss, the Aggies are now +130 to make the SEC title game and I find it hard to believe that the SEC title game loser gets left out.
I think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team is pretty likely to make it. I think that any 10-2 power conference team will make the field, with the possible exception of weaker Big 12/ACC resumes. It’s hard to find two more losses on the Irish’s schedule.
In the Hunt:
Ole Miss (9-3)
SMU (10-2)
Indiana (9-3)
Kansas State (10-3)
Tennessee (8-4)
LSU (8-4)
I think that SMU could present an interesting case to the committee. If the Mustangs go 10-2 and miss the ACC title game (which is the most likely outcome in my model), their only top 30 win would be at Louisville. They’re likely to stack up a decent number of wins against 7-5 type teams (TCU, Duke, Boston College, Cal etc.), which the committee traditionally hasn’t valued very much.
I got Indiana to make the playoff at +3000 a few weeks ago. I also had the Hoosiers over 5.5 wins in the preseason. I was bullish on Indiana this year but I will admit that I did not expect to cash that ticket in the first week in October.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Notre Dame
Miami
Penn State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Clemson
LSU
Iowa State
SMU
Tennessee
USC
Louisville
Kansas State
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington
Auburn
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
College Football Picks Week 6 2024
Week 5 was tremendous. I won 4 of 5 my bets, and most of them in convincing fashion. Arizona won outright as a 13.5 point underdog and Kentucky won outright as a 16.5 point underdog. Northern Illinois really should have won outright as well- they allowed only 171 yards but allowed 24 points thanks to 4 turnovers.
I also gained a lot of EV in my preseason bets- Ole Miss under, Indiana over and Fresno State under all took big jumps this week.
In addition to my bets below, Clemson plays Florida State this week. The consensus line is Clemson -14, but if you were following my picks in the preseason, you have Clemson in this game at +4. My bets against Florida State have been the gift that keeps on giving.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: 5.28 units
Preseason Bets: 2.64 units
Total: -2.22 units
Tennessee @ Arkansas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Arkansas has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this year. They outplayed a very good Texas A&M team last week but lost thanks to a -3 turnover margin. Their other loss this season was a crazy game against Oklahoma State where they racked up 648 yards of offense but lost the flukiest game of the season. Tennessee is a very good team, but my model does not have them in the top 5 like the polls do. Arkansas is a fringe top 25 team so I think this spread is at least a touchdown too big.
Arkansas +14 -110 (4 units)
Navy @ Air Force (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Navy has looked amazing so far this year, most notably in a 56-44 win over a hyped up Memphis team. QB Blake Horvath is putting up video game numbers for an option QB- he is 30/44 for 657 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT on the season. Air Force can be a difficult place to play given the altitude, and these two triple option teams are familiar with each other, but Air Force is in a rebuilding year and is clearly the worst of the three service academies. I think Navy should roll by multiple scores.
Navy -7 -110 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ Marshall (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Another week, another bet against Appalachian State. Their game last week was unfortunately canceled by Hurricane Helene, but when they have played this year, the Mountaineers have been very underwhelming. Marshall has one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt and I don’t think the market has caught on to just how much weaker App State is than they have been the last few years.
Marshall -1 -110 (2 units)
Auburn @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn is 2-3 and questions are being asked about Hugh Freeze’s job security. However, they are really unlucky to be 2-3, as they outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards last week and only lost thanks to an atrocious pick six by Payton Thorne. Auburn still has a very talented roster and the underlying fundamentals are much better than the record would indicate. Loyal readers will remember I picked Auburn in this game last year as a multi touchdown underdog and they nearly won outright, and I like them again this year.
Auburn +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Troy (Thursday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State has been my bogey team these last few years, I believe I am 0-4 ATS picking against them since GJ Kinne took over in San Marcos. I’m ready to get hurt again, as I like Troy and the points in this matchup. Troy is rebuilding under first year HC Gerard Parker, but is still a respectable outfit. This spread should be in the single digits, not nearly two touchdowns.
Troy +13.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 5 2024
Week 5 featured what may end up being the game of the year as Alabama survived a furious rally from Georgia. I’ve been high on Alabama’s national title chances for a while (loyal readers will remember I backed the Tide to make the SEC title game at +270 two weeks ago) but they look like co-SEC front runners with Texas now.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I’ve had Iowa State projected as my Big 12 champion all season, and other projections are starting to join me now as they are one of two undefeated teams in the conference, along with BYU. The Big 12 race remains wide open as no team has better than +400 odds to win the conference but I’m sticking with the Cyclones for now.
5 Texas vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Georgia
I think that Georgia might be in more danger of missing the playoff than people realize. They have 3 more difficult games (at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee) and then 5 games they will be heavy favorites in. If they go 1-2 in the tough games, they’ll be right on the playoff bubble- I imagine we will get at most one or two 9-3 teams in the playoff this year.
The more I look at their schedule, the more solid I feel about Penn State’s chances of making the playoff. They draw a favorable Big Ten schedule that features 5 more games against the league’s bottom half, leaving only challenges against USC, Ohio State and Washington. Even going 1-2 in those games would probably get them in the field.
Notre Dame was +350 to make the playoff after the Northern Illinois loss and I wish I had scooped that up. They’re all the way back to +115 now and will be double digit favorites in every game until their finale against USC.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Miami
Notre Dame
Penn State
Clemson
Ole Miss
Louisville
LSU
Iowa State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Kansas State
Missouri
Washington
SMU
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Kentucky
Indiana
Arkansas
LSU has been off the national radar since their week 1 to USC. The Tigers looked great against a solid South Alabama team this week and is a contender in the SEC race- both Ole Miss and Alabama have to come to Death Valley.
Washington is on no one’s radar but the advanced metrics love them. They dropped 500 yards against Rutgers this weekend but lost thanks to going 1 of 4 on field goals and 2 of 12 on third down. They could majorly impact the Big Ten race with a November schedule that features USC, Penn State and Oregon.
SMU has clawed their way back into the top 25 after a dominating win over Florida State. Their only loss (Week 2 to BYU) looks much better as BYU is still undefeated.They avoid both Miami and Clemson in ACC play and thus have a good shot at the ACC title game.
College Football Picks Week 5 2024
Last week was once again pretty tough. Toledo lost on a very strange call- they ran back a fumble for a TD for what appeared to be a game winning TD, but the play was blown dead for unclear reasons. Georgia Tech lost by 12 as a 10.5 point dog in a game where they had two turnovers deep in Louisville territory and had a blocked field goal returned for a TD. The good news is that I had two picks win in blowouts as South Alabama and Clemson dominated.
Overall I still feel decent about the process- I’m generating a ton of closing line value as almost all of my picks are moving in my direction over the course of the week. I’ve also had a bunch of teams that I like look really good in the games after I bet on them- for example, I bet on Vanderbilt in week 3, and in week 4 they nearly won outright at Missouri as a 20 point dog. Frustrating stuff, but I’ll continue to follow the same process and hope for better results.
Preseason Futures: +1.82 units
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Total: -8.32 units
Northern Illinois @ NC State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Northern Illinois is one of the better teams in the MAC, as we saw when they beat Notre Dame a few weeks ago. They played a clunker against Buffalo last week but their upside is clear. NC State, meanwhile, is a bottom 5 power conference team in the country. 6th year senior QB Grayson McCall was supposed to start but has been injured and may not play again this season. Even if they had McCall, I’m not convinced they’d be much better, as they allowed touchdowns on Clemson’s first four drives last week. This is my favorite pick of the season so far.
Northern Illinois +10 -110 (4 units)
Arizona @ Utah (Saturday, 9:15 PM Central)
On paper, it looks like Utah picked up one of the best wins of the season last week by knocking off a top 15 Oklahoma State team on the road. In actuality, Oklahoma State is incredibly fraudulent (unfortunately for me, they played their only good game of the season against Tulsa, which is the one time I bet against them). Loyal readers will remember that I bet this game in the preseason at Arizona +9.5 but I’m putting two more units down at +13.5. Utah is a solid, physical team but Arizona has huge explosive potential with the Fifita/McMillan combo and shouldn’t be a double digit dog here.
Arizona +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky @ Boston College (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Boston College has their best team in several years. QB Thomas Castellanos is explosive both on the ground and in the passing game, and their defense forced four turnovers against Michigan State last week. Western Kentucky has a solid team and a good QB in Caden Veltkamp but I think that BC is a fringe ACC contender and they need to be bigger favorites against any non power team.
Boston College -11 -110 (2 units)
Liberty @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This is going to be my third week in a row betting against App State and I’m 2-0 ATS so far- I don’t think the books have caught up to how much worse this team is than previous App State squads. They are a complete sieve on defense as we saw last week against South Alabama- and Liberty’s offense is much better than South Alabama’s. Liberty is finally getting into their groove after a sluggish opening to the season and knocked off a good ECU team by double digits last week.
Liberty -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kentucky @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This game is a huge contrast of styles, and it’ll be strength on strength when the Ole Miss offense takes on the Kentucky defense. We still don’t know much about Ole Miss- the best team they’ve faced this season is #90 Wake Forest. Kentucky, meanwhile, got Georgia to play the kind of game that Kentucky wanted to play (low scoring and boring) and I think that they can do that against other top teams.
Kentucky +16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Notre Dame is fifth in my model, and would be second behind Ohio State if I tossed out the Northern Illinois game. That’s a big “if”, of course, but the Irish have been truly excellent in all three of their other games this season. Louisville has a talented roster but I am not sold on Tyler Shough as a big time QB and Notre Dame is much better than people realize.
Notre Dame -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 4 2024
I was in Chapel Hill for what might have been the game of the day in Week 4 as James Madison knocked off North Carolina 70-50. Mack Brown’s tenure at UNC has always felt like a bit of a missed opportunity- QBs like Sam Howell and Drake Maye are not going to just walk through the door at Alabama, let alone North Carolina. I do think the Tar Heels could do better than Mack- they are the flagship university in a growing state with tons of recruits.
Elsewhere, the most impactful games on the playoff included Kansas State imploding against BYU, USC falling to Michigan and Missouri scraping by Vanderbilt. Missouri looks really shaky and I don’t think they’re a serious playoff contender anymore.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
No changes in my top 4 this week. My model still doesn’t trust Utah and thus Iowa State remains my pick to win an increasingly murky Big 12. Miami was really impressive in a road win over South Florida.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Liberty
6 Oregon vs. 11 Ole Miss
7 Texas vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
In my eyes, Clemson has fully rebounded from their loss to Georgia. Their schedule is really light with Louisville and South Carolina the main threats- I think an 11-2 Clemson team that wins out before an ACC title game loss to Miami should make the field. My model is still lower on Ole Miss and Tennessee than most others so I have them on the road in the first round as opposed to at home.
I’ve moved Liberty up to my 12 seed for the first time all year. Given their pillow soft schedule, the Flames would have to go 13-0 to make the playoff and would likely need all the other G5 conference champions to have multiple losses. With Liberty beating a good ECU team, and losses by Memphis, Toledo and Northern Illinois this week, that scenario is looking significantly more likely.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami
Texas
Clemson
Penn State
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Iowa State
LSU
Louisville
Michigan
Missouri
USC
Washington
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Virginia Tech
Auburn
SMU
Next Ten: Indiana, UCF, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida, Utah, Arizona
Louisville is the best team in the sport that no one is talking about. They travel to Notre Dame this week- a win there and they’re firmly in the playoff hunt. Michigan rebounded after their win over USC. Their complete inability to pass will put a ceiling on them but they’re still extremely talented and clearly a top 25 team. SMU was a preseason sleeper ACC pick and has snuck back into my top 25 after a blowout win over TCU. Plus, their early loss to BYU doesn’t look so bad now that BYU is 4-0.
College Football Picks Week 4 2024
Last week was pretty bad. East Carolina +3.5 was my only pick that covered. It’s a good thing I got that line early, because it closed at East Carolina PK and they lost by 2. I was really surprised to see Vanderbilt lay a total egg against Georgia State. Time to forget about week 3 and move on to week 4.
I’ve also added some new futures bets this week that are at the bottom of this post.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Toledo @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Toledo pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, going on the road and beating Mississippi State 41-17 as a double digit underdog. I’m going to continue to ride the Toledo train this week- the Rockets have the best roster in the MAC according to my model’s talent ranking. Western Kentucky is a decent team but I think they’re overrated after beating up on a really poor MTSU team last week. I am shocked Toledo is an underdog here as they are a dark horse playoff contender.
Toledo +1.5 -110 (3 units)
Fresno State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 7:30 PM Central)
This pick should not be a surprise given that I bet on New Mexico and against Fresno State in the preseason. New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise despite their 0-3 start- they are 3-0 ATS and should be able to beat their win total of 2. New Mexico put up 448 yards on Auburn last week and I like their chances to hang with Fresno State.
New Mexico +17 -110 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Appalachian State (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
South Alabama got off to a disappointing start with two losses to G5 teams, but righted the ship last week with an astounding 87 points against FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars still have one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt. I am fading App State for the second week in a row after they were decimated by Clemson.
South Alabama +7 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
These two teams both figure to be near the bottom of the Big 12. Houston got the doors blown off in week 1 against UNLV (loyal readers will unfortunately remember that game), but has been very impressive since, covering their last two by double digits. Cincinnati might be the most poorly managed program in the Power Five and I think they’re headed for last place in the conference.
Houston +5.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I do not understand this line. Louisville is a solid team (they’re in my model’s top 25 with two blowout wins over bad teams) but Georgia Tech is as well. Some of the air was taken out of the Georgia Tech balloon after their loss to Syracuse, but I think that was more about Kyle McCord’s epic performance than Georgia Tech’s issues. The Yellow Jackets are a clear bowl team and should keep this close.
Georgia Tech +10.5 -110 (1 unit)
NC State @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
NC State has been one of the most disappointing teams of the year. They barely beat FCS Western Carolina and then struggled with an awful Louisiana Tech team last week. QB Grayson McCall was injured against Louisiana Tech and it is unclear if he will play in this matchup. Clemson is still the most talented team in the ACC and should dominate NC State.
Clemson -14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rutgers @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I think people got a bit too low on Virginia Tech after their loss to Vanderbilt. There’s a reason this team was a sleeper pick to win the ACC in the preseason and they showed that in a dominating road win at Old Dominion last week. They are far more talented than Rutgers (who is 2-0, but has played no one) and I expect them to win easily here.
Virginia Tech -5.5 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama to make SEC Title Game +270 (2 units)
Most people would agree that Georgia, Alabama and Texas are the three best teams in the SEC. My model has the three teams within just a few points of each other, as do most other models. Alabama’s schedule is relatively easy by the standards of the SEC- they avoid Texas, host Georgia, and avoid my #4 and #5 SEC teams in Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really don’t get this line, I think Alabama might have better odds of making the SEC Title game than Georgia and they’re priced way lower.
Tulane to win the AAC +250 (1 unit)
Tulane is 1-2 but has acquitted themselves well in close losses to good teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma. Those non-conference losses don’t hurt the Green Wave in the conference standings, and I think they’re dead even with Memphis for the title of best team in the league. Tulane should make the AAC title game- they get to host both Memphis and USF and every other conference game is against a team outside my top 100- and if they get there, they very well can win the title game.
Indiana to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)
Indiana to make the Playoff? Have I lost my mind? Hear me out on this one- the Hoosiers have been the biggest surprise of the season so far, they’re 25th in my ratings and are in the 20s in most other computer ratings as well. They have to travel to Ohio State, but I actually have them favored in every other game on the schedule as they avoid Oregon, Penn State and USC. A 10-2 Big Ten team is very likely to make the Playoff and I think this is a great long shot bet.
College Football Ratings- Week 3 2024
Week 3 was light on earth-shattering results but we nearly got one in Lexington. Georgia was lucky to escape Kentucky with a win- they were getting pushed around by the Kentucky front seven and ran for only 102 yards on 30 carries. We had interesting results elsewhere- Georgia State, Toledo, Memphis and Washington State all won as decent underdogs.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I considered giving the SEC auto-bid to Alabama but I’m keeping Georgia there for now. Miami moves back into the ACC autobid, they passed Clemson in my ratings after a 62-0 demolition of Ball State this weekend.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Northern Illinois
6 Oregon vs. 11 USC
7 Texas vs. 10 Ole Miss
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
Oregon finally looked like the team we’ve been expecting all offseason in a dominating win over Oregon State. The Ducks won’t face a real test until Ohio State comes to Eugene on October 12th. I finally relented and moved Ole Miss into my field, replacing a Missouri team that was underwhelming as a two touchdown favorite against Boston College.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame (+6)
Texas (-1)
Miami (+1)
Texas A&M (-1)
Clemson (-3)
Penn State
Ole Miss (+2)
Missouri (-3)
LSU (-1)
Tennessee (+4)
USC (-1)
Iowa State (-1)
Michigan
Louisville (+1)
Virginia Tech (+1)
Oklahoma (-4)
Georgia Tech (+1)
Kansas State (+6)
Boston College (+9)
Kansas (+2)
Indiana (+18)
Next Ten: Auburn, UCF, Kentucky, South Carolina, SMU, Iowa, Boise State, Washington, TCU, Arizona
Computer models, including mine, continue to love Texas A&M. I expect the Aggies to be unranked, but favored, when Missouri comes to College Station in a few weeks. My model is finally starting to catch on to Kansas State who dominated Arizona on Friday night. I was bullish on Indiana in the preseason but even I did not expect them to crack my top 25 this season, but the Hoosiers decimated UCLA on the road. Indiana is 3-0 and might be favored in every game until November.