Men’s Bracketology 2/2/2026

It was another eventful weekend. I’d say the biggest winners of the weekend were:

Indiana- back to back Q1-A wins over Purdue and at UCLA put them in excellent shape to dance

Kentucky- the Wildcats have been a bit all over the place, but they were still only -400 to dance before a huge win at Arkansas

Texas A&M- the Aggies took a bit of time to get used to Bucky McMillan’s system, but are just a few wins away from lock status

California- the Golden Bears must be taken seriously as a bubble team after a Q1 win at Miami

UCF- the Golden Knights got a Q1-A win over Texas Tech and are now very likely to get their second at-large bid in program history

The biggest losers included:

TCU- the Horned Frogs were demolished by a bad Colorado team and have a huge uphill climb ahead of them

Miami (FL)- the Hurricanes lost to fellow bubble team Cal at home, and fall down to the First Four

St. Mary’s- the Gaels swing and missed at Gonzaga and have precious few opportunities left for a quality win

SMU- the Mustangs are getting sneakily closer to the bubble, it’s been a month since they did anything of note

I’ll be back on Wednesday or Thursday with another update.

Moving In: Texas

Moving Out: San Diego State

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 11

SEC: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Mountain West: 2

Bracketology Bets 2/1/2026

It’s been a decent start for my bracketology bets. I made my first bets last week- my biggest bet was Texas to miss the tournament at +310. The Longhorns have gone 1-1 since (which was expected- I expected 0.9 wins from them in those two games) and have gone from +310 to +116 to miss the tournament. That’s the kind of line movement that shows me that I’m on to something here.

Seton Hall to make tournament +280 (2 units)

It’s been a roller coaster season from Seton Hall. They were expected to be bad in the preseason, then they started 14-2, then they lost four in a row, now they’ve won two in a row. They’re just outside of the field for me right now. I think they’ll probably make it with a 5-4 finish and definitely make it with a 6-3 finish. Kenpom and T-Rank project them for a 5-4 and 4-5 finish, respectively. I think this should be closer to 50/50 than it is.

Missouri to miss tournament -205 (2 units)

Missouri has a brutal schedule down the stretch. They have 9 games remaining, and 7 are Q1, 3 are Q1-A. That presents opportunities, but the Tigers are projected underdogs in every remaining game. Mizzou played a putrid NCSOS and probably has to go 5-4 down the stretch to make the tournament (they could have a chance at 4-5). That’s not likely given that they’re outside the top 60 in the predictive metrics.

Men’s Bracketology 1/31/2026

I moved Michigan up to my #1 overall seed after their huge wins over Nebraska and Michigan State this week. The win over Michigan State knocked the Spartans down to the 3 line, Iowa State took their spot as a 2.

I’ll be back on Monday with a huge update, almost every bubble team is in action this weekend.

1: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut

2: Nebraska, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State

3: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Purdue, Vanderbilt

4: BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Florida

5: Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee

6: St. John’s, Auburn, Clemson, North Carolina

7: Louisville, Iowa, Saint Louis, Villanova

8: UCF, Utah State, SMU, St. Mary’s

9: Georgia, Texas A&M, NC State, Kentucky

10: Miami (FL), UCLA, New Mexico, Wisconsin

11: Ohio State, (Indiana/USC), (San Diego State/Santa Clara), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Tulsa, Liberty, Yale

13: McNeese, High Point. Hawai’i, Utah Valley

14: Oakland, Troy, UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State

15: North Dakota State, Portland State, Lipscomb, Siena

16: Navy, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)

First Four Out: Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, George Mason

Next Four Out: TCU, VCU, California, Nevada

Also Considered: Missouri, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Washington, Butler, LSU, Akron, Grand Canyon, Creighton, Baylor, Stanford

Moving In: Navy, Siena

Moving Out: Colgate, Marist

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 11

SEC: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

West Coast: 3

Men’s Bracketology 1/29/2026

Teams that are currently in my field had a good few days as most of them won (UCLA, New Mexico, Wisconsin). Teams that were outside the field mostly lost (Texas, TCU, Baylor). That means that the gap between those in the field and those outside the field grew significantly.

I feel quite good about my first 38 teams making the tournament (so UCLA on up). The gap between UCLA and the Seton Halls and TCUs of the world is getting quite large.

I’ll be back with another update on Saturday morning. The main thing to watch between now and then is the huge Michigan/Michigan State game that will go a long way to determining the 1 seed race.

1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut

2: Nebraska, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State

3: Iowa State, Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt

4: BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Florida

5: Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee

6: St. John’s, Auburn, Clemson, North Carolina

7: Louisville, Iowa, Saint Louis, Villanova

8: UCF, Utah State, SMU, St. Mary’s

9: Georgia, Texas A&M, NC State, Kentucky

10: Miami (FL), UCLA, New Mexico, Wisconsin

11: Ohio State, (Indiana/USC), (San Diego State/Santa Clara), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Tulsa, Liberty, Yale

13: McNeese, High Point. Hawai’i, Utah Valley

14: Oakland, Troy, UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State

15: North Dakota State, Marist, Portland State, Lipscomb

16: Colgate, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)

First Four Out: Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, George Mason

Next Four Out: TCU, VCU, California, Nevada

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 11

SEC: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

West Coast: 3

Bracketology Bets 1/28/2026

I was very excited to see this morning that DraftKings and FanDuel have listed odds on various teams to make/miss the NCAA tournament. I’ve been waiting for these to pop up for a few weeks now. I made quite a bit betting these lines last year, they’re pretty soft and my knowledge of bracketology is obviously a huge help.

I’ll post picks as I make them here on my website over the next several weeks. I will warn my readers that last year a lot of these opportunities came and went quickly- and some of the best opportunities I saw all season were in the minutes leading into the selection show. So keep your eyes on this space for more picks over the course of the weeks to come.

Texas to miss tournament +310 (4 units)

I don’t get this line. Texas is right on the cut line right now- a resume average of 57 and predictive average of 38 is a classic bubble team. My model thinks they’ll probably make the field at 19-12, are a coin flip to make the field at 18-13, and are pretty unlikely to make it at 17-14. Both KenPom and T-Rank project them for 18-13. This is my favorite line I saw and it’s not close.

USC to make tournament +154 (1 unit)

USC would make the field if it was selected today but their predictive metrics are worse than their resume metrics. This indicates that their position is more likely to worsen than improve over the next two months. However, their predictive metrics aren’t that bad- they’re 50th in Kenpom. 20-11 will get the job done, 19-12 might, and Kenpom projects them for 20-11.

LSU to make tournament +450 (1 unit)

LSU has lost six of seven to fall from in the tournament to out. They’re definitely out of the field if it was selected today, but they have 11 games to make up ground, and 7 of them are against Q1 opposition. Their predictive metrics are all in the mid-40s, which is solid for bubble teams- they definitely can win these Q1 games on their schedule. 20-11 will definitely get them in and 19-12 might.

West Virginia to miss tournament -440 (1 unit)

I think West Virginia’s tournament chances are pretty dead. Their metrics are mostly in the low 60s, which is not close to the field. Their NCSOS is really bad, which means they’re going to have to go on a tear down the stretch to get in. I think they need to go 21-10 to get in, and Kenpom and T-Rank both have them projected at 19-12.

Men’s Bracketology 1/26/26

The wheat separated from the chaff this weekend. Several teams who were pretty likely to make the tournament took big steps towards firming up their bid. Auburn, UCF, UCLA and USC are some examples- all played games that we’re lose-able, but all won easily. That’s bad news for the few bubble teams who lost, like Seton Hall who fell to DePaul.

At the top of the bracket, my 2 line is entirely composed of Big Ten teams after Illinois’ road win over Purdue. I also have Michigan on the 1 line. The Big Ten is not going to be able to maintain 5 teams on the top 2 seed lines- there’s just not enough wins in the league to go around. The winner of Tuesday’s Nebraska/Michigan game will be solidly on my 1 line on Wednesday’s update.

I’m sure I’m one of the very few bracketologists who have Indiana in. This is mostly a philosophy difference- they’d be out if the field was seeded right now. However, their predictive average is 29.3- indicating they will probably do enough down the stretch to earn a bid. I think 19-12 should get them there.

I’d also like to shout out Santa Clara, who I moved into my bracket today, I believe for the first time in my 16 year history of bracketology. The Broncos are in very few projected brackets right now, but I’m not sure why- their resume average is 50.3 and their predictive average is 47.

Moving In: Indiana, Santa Clara

Moving Out: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 11

SEC: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

West Coast: 3

MSU Basketball Mid-Season Report Card

I don’t talk much about the teams that I’m actually a fan of on here. However, much to my surprise, my Michigan State Spartans look like a FInal Four contender this year. Thus, I figured it was worth taking a stab at creating a mid-season report card for each player and the team as a whole.

First, a word on my scoring system. Instead of a traditional score (A, B, C, D etc.), I’m using a numerical scoring system. A 3 means someone has performed in-line with my expectations, a 2 means they’ve performed significantly better, and a 4 means they’ve performed significantly worse. 1 is the best possible score but is quite rare, 5 is the worst possible score and is also quite rare.

Overall Team Score: 2

We’re nearly halfway through Big Ten play, and the Spartans are on track for a 2 seed. They got a 2 seed last year, but I expected this year’s team to be worse with Jase Richardson and Jaden Akins off to the NBA. I have been pleasantly surprised by the 18-2 start, and any reasonable fan would agree with me. Most computer systems had us in the 20s in the preseason.

The team is built on the boards. We get an offensive rebound on 39% of our missed shots (8th in the nation) and get a defensive rebound on 78% of our opponent’s missed shots (1st in the nation). We’re not a great shooting team, but we attempt far more shots than our opponents because we dominate on the glass.

I considered a 1.5 for the overall team score, but our lack of perimeter shooting limits the team’s upside.

Jeremy Fears Jr.: 1.5

It goes without saying that Fears has been the best player on the team and the biggest reason for our outperformance. He’s not the best point guard we’ve had in the last twenty years (that’s Cassius Winston), but he is the best pure passer. Not only are his assist numbers off the charts, but the way he runs the fast break is unmatched. The team has dominated in transition all year and it’s because of his court vision.

I see upside in his shot. He has been excellent from the free throw line (89% this year on decent volume), it’s a bit weird he’s only shooting 29% from 3 given how consistent he is at the stripe. He has gotten more comfortable pulling up from mid range when defenses sag off him, he’s 18/32 from mid range since the new year. If he starts shooting like Tyson Walker or Cassius Winston did, watch out.

Coen Carr: 3.5

This might be a controversial score. Coen Carr has certainly been good this year, but I expected more. The highlights are obvious- he can jump out of the building and is the best dunker I’ve ever seen in green and white. He also plays bigger than his size and is a good rebounder. 

However, the downsides are pretty bad. He’s 50/87 (58%) from the stripe, 12/40 (30%) from midrange and 11/41 (27%) from 3. All of these numbers are worse than last year. It pains me to say, but he’s a liability in the half court offense.

If he can develop a shot, he has a long NBA career ahead of him. He’s still a good college player even if he never learns to shoot. The good news is that shooting is easier to teach than a 51 inch vertical.

Jaxon Kohler: 1.5

Izzo has bucked the trend by developing high school players instead of building through the portal. Jaxon Kohler is the most recent success story of that model. He was a mediocre rotation player for his first two years in East Lansing and has blossomed into an excellent power forward. He is a monster on the offensive glass.

If you look at the list of D1 players with the most offensive rebounders, Kohler sticks out like a sore thumb. Most of the guys on that list have taken fewer than 10 3s this year. Kohler has taken 73, and made 47% of them. There’s just not another player like him in college basketball.

Carson Cooper: 2

Cooper is the other developmental success Izzo can hang his hat on. He’s always been good on the glass, but he has added the 8 to 10 foot range to his game this year. He also runs the floor better than pretty much any 6’11” player you’ll see, and gets a ton of dunks and layups in transition as a result. This has been a very solid senior year for Cooper.

Kur Teng: 3

Teng played very limited minutes last year as a freshman, despite a decent recruiting pedigree. His development is on course with my expectations- he is a good perimeter shooter, probably the best we have. However, there’s nothing in his game beyond the 3 point shot. That’s not a problem this year, we just need him to play 15 minutes a game or so at the 2 guard. The next step in his game will be getting to the rim.

Divine Ugochukwu: 2.5

I need to eat my words on Ugochukwu. I was very skeptical when Izzo signed him out of the portal. Early in the season, I was calling for him to be removed from the rotation. He is not as good a shooter as Teng, but he has more to his game in terms of getting downhill. I expect the 2 guard to be a clean timeshare between him and Teng for the rest of the season.

Jordan Scott: 2

Scott is still a freshman, but the sky is the limit for his development in the next few years. He has the bones of an NBA skillset- is a decent offensive rebounder, a decent shooter and has good length. If those skills continue to develop, I would be surprised if he ends up spending 4 years in college. He also hustles his ass off, he seems to be on every single loose ball. I’m quite happy with what I see from him in year one.

Cam Ward: 2.5

Izzo seems to like to play his two main freshmen (Scott and Ward) together. I don’t mind, as they are pretty different players despite being similar heights- Scott is a wing, and Ward is a 4. He is fantastic on the offensive glass and is getting back in the rhythm of things after injuring his wrist several weeks ago. I am a bit worried by what I see at the free throw line, but the sample size is admittedly small.

Trey Fort: 4

I expected more from Fort this year. The team’s biggest weakness is the lack of outside shooting, and we brought in two transfers to try to fix that. Kaleb Glenn has been out for the year with an injury, and Fort has regressed from a 38% shooter at Samford last year (on good volume, too) to a 30% shooter this year. Of all the options we have at the 2 guard, he’s also the least athletic and the worst defender.

Jesse McCulloch: 2.5

McCulloch is an intriguing project. The freshman hasn’t played much, but when he has, he’s been a solid backup big. We’re so blessed with Cooper and Kohler that we haven’t asked very much of McCulloch, but when we have, he’s delivered. The sample size is small, but he also looks like a good shooter for 6’10”.

Denham Wojcik: 4.5

Wojcik is a transfer from Harvard and the son of assistant coach Doug Wojcik. He was not a particularly interesting Ivy League player at Harvard and I am pretty surprised he is still in the rotation. The offense looks stuck in the mud when he is at PG. Wojcik only plays when Fears needs a breather, but I’d rather Ugochukwu get those minutes. Ugochukwu was a pure PG last year at Miami and can handle the point OK.

Men’s Bracketology 1/24/2026

Pretty quiet two days on the bracketology front with few power conference teams in action. I will say that it’s snuck up on me how good of a profile Saint Louis has, they demolished St. Bonaventure last night. The Bilikens’ only loss this year is a buzzer beater to Stanford. Kenpom gives them a 15% chance of winning out, which could put them into the protected seed range.

1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut

2: Purdue, Nebraska, Houston, Michigan State

3: Iowa State, Illinois, BYU, Gonzaga

4: Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, Texas Tech

5: Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisville

6: Georgia, Clemson, Iowa, St. John’s

7: Villanova, Saint Louis, Tennessee, Kentucky

8: SMU, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin

9: North Carolina, UCF, Auburn, Texas A&M

10: Miami (FL), Ohio State, NC State, UCLA

11: USC, (New Mexico/Seton Hall), (San Diego State/Virginia Tech), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Tulsa, Yale, McNeese

13: Utah Valley, High Point. Liberty, Hawai’i

14: Hofstra, Oakland, Troy, East Tennessee State

15: North Dakota State, Marist, Portland State, Queens

16: Colgate, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)

First Four Out: Santa Clara, George Mason, Baylor, Indiana

Next Four Out: LSU, Texas, TCU, Missouri

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 4

Mountain West: 3

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 1/22/2026

The Mountain West is falling apart. Utah State looked very comfortable for an at-large but has dropped back to back games, including a Q3 loss at home to UNLV. San Diego State dropped a tight one on the road at Grand Canyon, which is more forgivable, but still does not help the league’s chances of multiple bids.

Purdue falls off the 1 line after a tight loss on the road to UCLA. The Boilermakers still have a 1-seed quality resume, we just have six such resumes right now and only four spots. That result also lets UCLA jump back into the bracket.

1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut

2: Purdue, Nebraska, Houston, Michigan State

3: Iowa State, Illinois, BYU, Gonzaga

4: Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, Texas Tech

5: Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisville

6: Georgia, Clemson, Iowa, St. John’s

7: Villanova, Tennessee, Kentucky, SMU

8: Saint Louis, St. Mary’s, North Carolina, Utah State

9: UCF, Auburn, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

10: Ohio State, Miami (FL), NC State, UCLA

11: USC, (New Mexico/Seton Hall), (San Diego State/Virginia Tech), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Tulsa, Yale, McNeese

13: Utah Valley, High Point. Liberty, Hawai’i

14: Hofstra, Oakland, Troy, East Tennessee State

15: North Dakota State, Marist, Portland State, Queens

16: Colgate, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)

First Four Out: Santa Clara, George Mason, Baylor, LSU

Next Four Out: Indiana, Texas, TCU, Missouri

Moving In: UCLA, Virginia Tech

Moving Out: Baylor, Indiana

Men’s Bracketology 1/20/2026

Saturdays in college hoops are like drinking through a firehose this time of year. Tons of important results happened up and down the seed list, but here’s a few that particularly caught my eye:

-Florida won at Vanderbilt. The Gators were the victims of some close losses early in the season, their resume is now inching closer to their top 10 predictive metrics. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is out of the 1 seed conversation.

-Santa Clara beat St. Mary’s. Santa Clara’s at-large hopes are very much alive- the Broncos have not made the NCAA tournament in my lifetime, but an 8-2 finish should get them there.

-NC State lost at home to Georgia Tech. My model still has them in the field, which I reckon most people won’t. Certainly if the tournament started today they’d be well out of the field, but they’re still 30th in Kenpom and have 7 Q1 opportunities remaining. I think they will win enough of those to sneak their way back in, but it’ll be close.

Men’s Bracketology 1/15/2026

I’m trying a bit of a new approach with this seed list. My logic goes something like the following:

-Take every team’s current resume metrics

-Use their predictive metrics to estimate what’s going to happen the rest of the season

-Combine their current resume with their predicted resume from the rest of the season to estimate their final resume

-Rank teams based on their expected final resume

I built a crude model for this over the past few days, and these are the initial results.

I would say that this passes the smell test pretty well. Teams with big discrepancies between their resume and their predictives (Indiana, NC State, UCF) are generally placed somewhere between the two, which seems reasonable to me.

I would like to briefly shout out Texas who has picked up 2 Q1-A wins in 2 games, winning at Alabama and vs. Vanderbilt. The Longhorns were nowhere near the field a week ago and now are one of my last teams in.

1: Arizona, Michigan, Connecticut, Purdue

2: Duke, Iowa State, Houston, Vanderbilt

3: Nebraska, BYU, Gonzaga, Illinois

4: Michigan State, Virginia, Florida, Kansas

5: Alabama, Texas Tech, Villanova, Clemson

6: Utah State, Arkansas, Tennessee, Miami (FL)

7: Louisville, St. Mary’s, St. John’s, North Carolina

8: Iowa, UCF, Georgia, SMU

9: Seton Hall, NC State, Saint Louis, USC

10: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Auburn, Indiana

11: New Mexico, (Baylor/Texas), (Ohio State/Missouri), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Yale, McNeese, South Florida

13: High Point, Liberty, Hawai’i, Utah Valley

14: Hofstra, East Tennessee State, St. Thomas, Troy

15: Wright State, Portland State, Quinnipiac, Navy

16: Austin Peay, UT-Martin, (Vermont/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Norfolk State)

First Four Out: Texas A&M, UCLA, San Diego State, LSU

Next Four Out: Stanford, Creighton, George Mason, Virginia Tech

In the Hunt: TCU, Washington, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, Syracuse, VCU

On the Radar Screen: Murray State, Dayton, Oklahoma, Butler, Nevada, California

Moving In: Kentucky, Baylor, Texas, Missouri

Moving Out: LSU, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Men’s Bracketology 1/12/2026

We have a shakeup at the top of the bracket, as Vanderbilt rises to the 1 line, taking Michigan’s place. Michigan drops from the number 1 oveall seed to a 2 seed, but it’s a very competitive race at the top of the bracket. We still have 11 power conference teams with 0 or 1 losses, which is quite a lot for this time of the year.

On the bubble, Michigan’s loss is Wisconsin’s gain. You won’t see many better wins in college hoops all season than the Badgers’ road win in Ann Arbor. It vaults them from the next four out to comfortably in the bracket as a 10 seed.

Moving In: Oklahoma State, UCLA, Wisconsin

Moving Out: TCU, Missouri, Stanford

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 11

SEC: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 4

Mountain West: 2

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 1/10/2026

I seriously considered moving Vanderbilt to the 1 line in this update- I do truly feel that we have 5 1-seed quality resumes at this point in the season. Ultimately we still have 4 undefeated power conference teams and 1 extremely impressive 1-loss resume (Connecticut). I could see UConn getting passed up in a few weeks though, simply because they don’t have as many quality win opportunities in the Big East as say, Iowa State and Vanderbilt might.

On the bubble, I’ve dropped Kentucky from the field. I thought other bracketologists were a bit rash for doing this a few weeks ago- the Wildcats’ predictive metrics were still in the 20s. However, after a disastrous home loss to Mizzou, their predictives are now in the mid-30s and their resume metrics are in the 60s. T-Rank has them projected for 16-15, which definitely wouldn’t get the job done.

1: Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa State

2: Vanderbilt, Purdue, Gonzaga, Duke

3: Houston, Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska

4: Alabama, BYU, Kansas, Arkansas

5: Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee, Virginia

6: Clemson, North Carolina, Florida, St. Mary’s

7: SMU, Utah State, Villanova, Iowa

8: Saint Louis, Indiana, Miami (FL), Georgia

9: UCF, Seton Hall, USC, St. John’s

10: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Auburn, Missouri

11: NC State, (New Mexico/TCU), (LSU/Stanford), Miami (OH)

12: Belmont, Yale, McNeese, Tulsa

13: High Point, Utah Valley, Hofstra, Hawai’i

14: Liberty, East Tennessee State, Troy, Oakland

15: Lipscomb, St. Thomas, Montana State, Quinnipiac

16: Colgate, Vermont, (LIU/UT-Martin), (Grambling/Howard)

First Four Out: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kentucky, UCLA

Next Four Out: San Diego State, Creighton, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech

Moving In: Missouri, New Mexico, Stanford

Moving Out: Kentucky, UCLA, Baylor

Men’s Bracketology 1/5/2026

Welcome to my first bracketology of 2026! I spent a lot of time in this update trying to figure out where to place teams with good predictive metrics and shaky resume metrics. Some of these teams have enough on the team sheet where I’m still quite confident they’ll dance (Florida, Tennessee), while others are worrying me (NC State, St. John’s). Generally, I roughly split the difference between the predictive and resume metrics on seeding these teams.

I’ll be moving my updates to twice weekly going forward, likely on Mondays and Thursdays.

Moving In: TCU, Virginia Tech

Moving Out: Butler, Oklahoma State

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

ACC: 9

Big 12: 9

SEC: 9

Big East: 4

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 12/29/2025

It’s been a pretty sleepy few days on the bracketology front with most teams off for Christmas. I only have minor updates today, mostly amongst the AQ teams. Conference play starts in earnest tomorrow, so expect some shakeups in my next update.

1: Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa State

2: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Duke, Houston

3: Purdue, Michigan State, BYU, Kansas

4: Alabama, Illinois, Nebraska, North Carolina

5: Louisville, Texas Tech, USC, Iowa

6: Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, St. Mary’s

7: Utah State, Villanova, LSU, Auburn

8: Florida, Georgia, Saint Louis, Clemson

9: SMU, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Kentucky

10: UCF, Baylor, Miami (FL), UCLA

11: Indiana, (NC State/Ohio State), (Butler/Oklahoma State), Yale

12: Akron, Belmont, McNeese, Tulsa

13: Utah Valley, High Point, UC San Diego, Liberty

14: William & Mary, Lipscomb, Arkansas State, Oakland

15: Mercer, Siena, St. Thomas, Northern Colorado

16: Vermont, Colgate, (Southern/Norfolk State), (Lindenwood/LIU)

First Four Out: California, Oklahoma, Boise State, New Mexico

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas, Virginia Tech, Stanford

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

Big 12: 9

ACC: 8

Big East: 5

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 12/22/2025

The biggest change in this week’s bracket is Duke moving down to a 2 seed after their loss to Texas Tech. UConn takes their place on the 1 line after a week with two more solid wins.

On the bubble, Arizona State fell out of the bracket, and out of consideration entirely, after a disastrous home loss to Oregon State.

My next update will come a few days after Christmas.

1: Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa State

2: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Duke, Houston

3: Purdue, Michigan State, BYU, Kansas

4: Alabama, Nebraska, North Carolina, Louisville

5: Illinois, Texas Tech, USC, Iowa

6: Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Utah State

7: LSU, Auburn, Seton Hall, St. Mary’s

8: Florida, Georgia, Saint Louis, Villanova

9: Clemson, SMU, St. John’s, Kentucky

10: UCF, Baylor, Miami (FL), UCLA

11: Indiana, (NC State/Ohio State), (Butler/Oklahoma State), Yale

12: Akron, Belmont, McNeese, Tulsa

13: Utah Valley, High Point, UC San Diego, UNC Wilmington

14: Sam Houston State, Lipscomb, Wright State, Arkansas State

15: Mercer, Siena, North Dakota State, Northern Colorado

16: Vermont, Colgate, (Southern/Norfolk State), (Lindenwood/LIU)

First Four Out: California, Oklahoma, Boise State, New Mexico

Next Four Out: Missouri, Wake Forest, Texas, Virginia Tech

Moving In: UCF, Butler

Moving Out: Oklahoma, Arizona State

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

Big 12: 9

ACC: 8

Big East: 5

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 12/15/2025

A fun weekend for college hoops led to a bunch of changes in today’s bracket. Arizona’s spot on the 1 line was further secured with a big win over Alabama. LSU continued a surprising start to the season with a win over SMU, moving safely into the field. Kentucky also picked up their first win of note against Indiana.

I’ll be back with my next update next Monday- the next few days are pretty light on meaningful games before a busy Saturday in college hoops.

Moving In: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Villanova

Moving Out: UCF, Colorado, NC State

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

SEC: 10

Big 12: 9

ACC: 8

Big East: 4

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 12/12/2025

The resumes at the top of the seed list are stronger than I’m used to for this time of year. The biggest factor is that top teams are scheduling each other more often than ever before in non-conference play- so teams like Michigan and Duke have stacked up 4 or 5 really excellent wins already.

I know I mentioned it last post, but it bears repeating how bad the situation is for the Big East. The league is 6-26 in Q1 + Q2 games if you take away UConn. St. John’s predictive metrics are good enough that I expect them to right the ship, and I gave Seton Hall one of my last at-large spots today. But the bottom of the league (DePaul, Marquette, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence) is really, really bad. That’s going to drag the rest of the league down.

1: Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, Arizona

2: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt

3: Michigan State, Houston, BYU, Alabama

4: Illinois, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina

5: Nebraska, Virginia, Iowa, USC

6: Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia

7: St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana

8: St. John’s, SMU, Oklahoma State, Baylor

9: Miami (FL), LSU, Utah State, UCLA

10: Clemson, Seton Hall, Saint Louis, Colorado

11: NC State, (Ohio State/Kentucky), (UCF/Virginia Tech), Yale

12: Akron, Belmont, McNeese, Tulsa

13: Utah Valley, High Point, UC San Diego, UNC Wilmington

14: East Tennessee State, Sam Houston State, Lipscomb, Wright State

15: Arkansas State, Siena, North Dakota State, Northern Colorado

16: Vermont, Colgate, (Southern/Norfolk State), (UT Martin/LIU)

First Four Out: Santa Clara, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Villanova, Washington, Oklahoma, Butler

Also Considered: Wisconsin, California, Wake Forest, Creighton, Texas, Missouri, TCU, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, Colorado State, San Diego State, VCU, New Mexico, George Mason

Bids by Conference:

Big 10: 10

Big 12: 10

ACC: 9

SEC: 9

Big East: 3

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 12/1/2025

It’s been a fun first month of the season. I’ve been especially enjoying it as a Michigan State fan, as we own double digit wins over Kentucky and North Carolina on neutral courts.

Nationally, the biggest story to me has been the demise of the Big East. A lot of people were hypothesizing that the Big East was well positioned for the revenue share era as those teams don’t have to split funds with their football programs. UConn looks solid, but St. John’s has had a rough start to the season, and the rest of the league looks awful. I have Villanova just barely in the field, and Butler in the conversation, but it’s crazy that the league has so many bad teams.

I’ll be back with another update in two weeks or so.

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 11

Big 12: 10

SEC: 10

ACC: 7

Big East: 3

West Coast: 2

Also Considered: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Creighton, Seton Hall, California, Arizona State, VCU, San Diego State, Kansas State, Washington, George Mason, Notre Dame, Syracuse, George Washington, West Virginia

Preseason Men’s Bracketology 2025-26

Welcome back to college basketball season! I’m mainly focused on college football for the next two months, but I’ll update my basketball bracketology periodicially over that time- expect another update after Feast Week.

I have some exciting changes planned for my bracketology this year. I hope to bring you a more mathematically rigorous and data-driven approach to bracketology this year. Details to come in a few months- I plan on working on this project over Christmas.

Enjoy the first few weeks of the season!

1: Houston, Duke, Florida, Purdue

2: Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, Connecticut

3: UCLA, BYU, St. John’s, Tennessee

4: Louisville, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona

5: Iowa State, Arkansas, Alabama, Kansas

6: Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin

7: Auburn, North Carolina, NC State, Oregon

8: Baylor, Ole Miss, USC, Creighton

9: Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia

10: Texas, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Clemson

11: (Maryland/Texas A&M), (Cincinnati/Utah State), Memphis, Saint Louis

12: Belmont, Liberty, Yale, Hawai’i

13: Chattanooga, Utah Valley, Charleston, James Madison

14: Akron, High Point, Portland State, McNeese

15: Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Siena, Florida Gulf Coast

16: Little Rock, Colgate, (Vermont/Southern), (Norfolk State/LIU)

First Four Out: Indiana, Iowa, SMU, Washington

Next Four Out: Marquette, Providence, Nebraska, Boise State

Also Considered: Oklahoma State, VCU, St. Mary’s, West Virginia

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 14

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 8

ACC: 6

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 2