2025 Bracketology Year in Review
Bracketology is now a numbers game
2025 was not the best year for my bracketology. I selected 66/68 teams correctly and seeded 44 teams correctly for a Paymon score of 350. To an outsider, those may seem like impressive results, but it put me slightly below average amongst bracketologists this year.
I started publishing my bracketology in 2011 back on my old blog. Over my 15 year run as a bracketologist, lots of things have changed. The NET replaced the RPI, quads were introduced and predictive metrics became part of the selection criteria. While you can quibble with some details of the new way of doing things, it is inarguably better than the old way. I’m not even going to try to convince you of this- I can’t imagine any sane college basketball fan would want to go back to the RPI.
There were a few new changes to selection criteria for the 2025 season. T-Rank and WAB were added as official selection criteria. This means that there are now 6 metrics on each team’s resume- the 3 “resume metrics” (KPI, SOR and WAB) and the 3 “predictive metrics” (KenPom, BPI and T-Rank). This is simply a continuation of a decade-long trend of making the selection process increasingly quantifiable.
The genesis for this article was this tweet by Kerry Miller.
I was amazed that such a crude model would have performed so well. However, I profoundly disagree with his take on this fact. Kerry has been doing bracketology for even longer than I have and is one of the people in the community I have a lot of respect for.
I think it’s a good thing, not a bad thing, that the committee is moving to a more numbers-based approach. It’s kind of silly to me that the tournament is selected by a group of humans full of conflicts of interests, as this year’s drama surrounding North Carolina AD Bubba Cunningham showed. If I ruled the world, the tournament would be selected entirely by WAB, which Seth Burn lays out a great case for here. The more meritocratic and the less full of human meddling we can get the system, the better.
I also think it was foreseeable that we are moving in this direction. This is the exact rationale I applied behind putting North Carolina into my final bracket projection of the year, which was quite an unpopular opinion at the time. The metrics said that they should get in and the committee is much more metrics-driven than before.
The natural follow-up is to try to model this change in committee behavior to understand how to improve my bracketology going forwards. I’ll take a stab at that below.
Performance of our crude model
Suppose, as mentioned above, we created a crude model which is just the average of all six metrics and used that to seed and select the teams. Let’s get into the details of how such a model would have performed. In the screenshots below, the “actual rank” column is a team’s placement on the selection committee’s seed list, and the “predicted rank” column is a team’s placement under our model.
As you can see, this model would have gotten 66/68 teams correct- it would have had West Virginia and Ohio State in the field as opposed to Texas and San Diego State. However, it performed much better than my own bracketology in terms of seeding, seeding 53 teams correct as opposed to 44. (Note that these results are actually slightly better than what Kerry said they’d be).
This is a pretty good performance. It does quite well across all parts of the seed list. If you score it based on seed and not position on the seed list (as is customary), it is nearly perfect on the top 4 seed lines (switching only Purdue and Clemson), decent in the middle, and perfect on the bottom 4 seed lines.
However, it is easy to spot some patterns here. If you look at the teams that the model underseeds (Memphis, Oregon, Drake etc.) they generally have better resume metrics than predictive metrics. If you look at the teams that the model overseeds (Gonzaga, VCU, North Carolina etc.) they generally have better predictive metrics than resume metrics. Here are the teams who have much better predictive metrics than resume metrics:
You can see that our model is too high on almost all of these teams, most notably Gonzaga.
Now let’s look at the teams that have much better resume metrics than predictive metrics:
Our model is too low on nearly all of these teams. The notable exception is Louisville. They are the true outlier of the year to me- I have no idea how the committee decided they were an 8 seed.
My bracketology philosophy going forward
I think that I, along with other bracketologists, have made bracketology too complicated of a problem. There is so much analysis and over-analysis about lots of different factors, when we have every indication that the committee is getting more mathematical and streamlined in their decision making.
Going forward, the starting point for my bracketology is going to be ranking the teams by the average of their six metrics. I will then bump up the teams with relatively strong resume metrics and bump down the teams with relatively weak resume metrics. This is going to form the backbone of my bracketology, and I will make relatively few deviations from it. Some reasons for deviations I will make include:
Injuries. The committee’s shocking decision to leave West Virginia out shows that this can still matter.
Extreme values in other key bracketology data. I will define these as Q1 wins and NCSOS. These numbers do have some explanatory power (albeit less than others seem to think) and if a team has abnormally good or bad results in them (e.g. North Carolina) I will move them a few spots accordingly.
Ignoring the end of Champ Week. We have a lot of data (2025 Michigan, 2022 Texas A&M etc.) that the committee largely finalizes the seed list on Friday of conference tournaments and does not consider data beyond that. I will probably not move my seed list based on any results on the final Saturday or Sunday of conference tournament play.
I am excited that bracketology has become a more quantitative process over the years. My aim is to lean into that and adopt a more quantitative approach myself with the goal of improving my bracketology going forwards.
2025 Bracket Picking Guide
General Guidelines
Every year the internet is awash with articles describing how to pick the perfect March Madness bracket. Most of these articles will discuss some trends of past champions. For example, you’ll hear a lot of people say this year not to pick Auburn because they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games.
I think that these articles are largely useless because they fundamentally misunderstand the goal of filling out a bracket. Your goal in filling out a bracket is not to predict what is going to happen, but rather to maximize your chances of winning your bracket pool. If you wanted to maximize the expected score of your bracket, you would just pick the Vegas favorite to win every single game and you would end up with a bracket comfortably around 70th percentile.
That sort of strategy will guarantee that you don’t come in last, but it also guarantees you won’t come in first. To maximize your chances of coming in first in your bracket pool, you need to know the answers to the following two questions:
-How big is your bracket pool?
As a general rule of thumb, if you are trying to win an n person pool, you need to finish with a bracket that is in the top 1/n of brackets. To put that in other terms, if you are trying to win a 10,000 person pool, you have to finish in the top 0.01% of brackets. If you are trying to win a 5 person pool, you only have to finish in the top 20% of brackets. If you want to win a big pool you need to shoot for the moon. If you want to win a small pool you can be much more conservative.
-Who is everyone else picking?
Filling out a bracket is all about finding value. As I’ll explain below, with limited exceptions, you only have a realistic shot of winning your pool if you select the correct champion. Let’s use Duke as an example. The Blue Devils have around a 20% chance of winning the national title. If they’re being picked in 80% of brackets, there’s no point in picking Duke- you will need to nail the rest of your bracket to beat out the scores of others who picked them. If they’re only being picked in 5% of brackets, they’re a great pick- you have a ⅕ chance of getting the national champion correct and only have to beat out a few other people who picked them.
Bracket Scoring
The rest of this post assumes that you are using a standard bracket scoring system. The standard scoring system gives 10 points for a correct first round selection, 20 points for a correct second round selection, and 40, 80, 160 and 320 points for the subsequent rounds. ESPN, CBS and Yahoo all use this system. In practice, what this means is that almost every bracket with the correct champion will finish ahead of almost every bracket with an incorrect champion.
In medium to large formats, the ideal strategy is to pick an unconventional (but underpicked) champion and then go with largely safe picks elsewhere. This allows you to both capture the value in an underpicked team and also puts you in a good position to beat out anyone else who picked the same team. Feel free to pick early round upsets as well- if you want to pick some random 15 seed for fun, it’s only 10 points and it’s very unlikely to move the needle when compared to the 320 points you get for selecting the right champion.
Who to pick this year?
We’ve now established that your primary goal should be to pick a team as your champion whose true odds of winning the tournament are greater than the rate at which they’re being selected to win the tournament. How do we go about estimating these two quantities?
To estimate each team’s odds of winning the tournament, I used betting markets to estimate each team’s chances. For the men’s tournament I also present a team’s chances as calculated as an average of 3 computer models (those models being Ken Pomeroy’s, Bart Torvik’s and Kelley Ford’s), if you prefer to use that instead.
I found data from ESPN and Yahoo as to who the public is picking in their brackets and used that for the second half of the equation.
The “Edge” column below is simply calculated as the % of public picks minus the betting market implied probability.
So who should you pick as your champion this year? There are lots of good options. If you’re trying to win a small pool (up to 30 people), I like going with Auburn or Houston. It’s rare to see the #1 overall seed be underpicked, but the Tigers faltered down the stretch and I think that scared too many people off. Houston is a better choice if you are going by the computer average, but this is bolstered by Torvik being unusually high on them. The Cougars have also been better liked by computers than betting markets for a few years in a row now.
If you are trying to win a medium-sized pool (30-100 people) you might want to go a bit further afield. Texas Tech, Iowa State, Maryland and Arizona are all intriguing options. If you are trying to win a large pool (100+ people), Gonzaga is a good option.
I know a lot of people (myself included) like to join extremely large (10,000 people or so) pools that often are free to enter and have cash prizes. St. Mary’s and Missouri look like the best picks in those formats.
In the women’s tournament this year, there are two clear frontrunners in South Carolina and UConn, and then a clear next tier of 4. There are plenty of reasonable picks here- I think I will probably go with Texas or Notre Dame. If you’re trying to win a bigger women’s pool this year, Kansas State is a great pick.
Lastly, I’ll look at each region in the tournament to identify some good Final Four picks. I generally like to make Final Four picks that are a bit more conventional than my champion pick.
Men’s Regions
Auburn is a very reasonable pick. If you want to pick someone else, Michigan State does not present much value, but plenty of other teams in this region do- I particularly like Iowa State.
Duke is pretty strongly overpicked. If you want to pick chalk because you’re picking a crazy national champion, I get that. However, if you want to pick a dark horse to make the Final Four, this is a good region to do it. Arizona and BYU both catch my eye.
Houston is a very reasonable pick. They had the misfortune of drawing a likely matchup with 8 seed Gonzaga in the second round, who is in the top 10 in all of the computers. I like the Zags as a sleeper pick, along with Illinois.
Again, I couldn’t fault you for taking Florida who is a coin flip to make the Final Four. I could fault you for taking St. John’s, who is being picked at several times the rate of Texas Tech and Maryland despite having similar odds of making the Final Four.
Women’s Regions
Generally you’re best off picking mostly chalk in the women’s bracket, but this wouldn’t be a bad region to pick an upset. UCLA has some real competition here, I think I will pick NC State here.
South Carolina is slightly overpicked but there’s no clear second contender here. I think I will likely go with them anyways just for lack of a better option.
If you follow my advice from earlier, you’ve probably picked either Texas or Notre Dame as your national champion already so you know who you’re picking to make the Final Four from this region. Notre Dame was inexplicably given a 3 seed by the committee despite being a top 6 team all season.
2 seed UConn will be significantly favored over 1 seed USC in a hypothetical Elite Eight matchup and that makes them an easy pick from this region, considering that they’re being picked at the same rate.
Good luck with your brackets this year!
Final 2025 Men’s Bracketology
Selection Sunday is upon us! VCU and Memphis both won today, which means that North Carolina has made it into my final bracket. I don’t feel spectacular about it, but think that North Carolina is the most likely option given their substantial lead over the other contenders in their metric averages. If I had to handicap odds of making the field, it would look something like:
Vanderbilt, Baylor and Arkansas: 95%
Indiana and San Diego State: 80%
North Carolina: 45%
Boise State, Texas and Xavier: 30%
Ohio State: 10%
UC Irvine and Wake Forest: 5%
Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ll be back later this week with my guide on how to fill out your bracket this year.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
4: Maryland, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue
5: Oregon, Louisville, Michigan, Clemson
6: Ole Miss, BYU, Kansas, St. Mary’s
7: Gonzaga, Illinois, UCLA, Missouri
8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut
9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma
10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor
11: VCU, Arkansas, (Vanderbilt/Indiana), UC San Diego
12: (San Diego State/North Carolina), Colorado State, Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris
15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, SIUE, (American/Mount St. Mary’s), (Alabama State/St. Francis)
First Four Out: Boise State, Texas, Xavier, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Dayton, San Francisco
Final 2025 Women’s Bracketology
I’ve published women’s bracketology in previous years, but 2025 has been my first year publishing predictions regularly throughout the season. I’ve really enjoyed it- it’s a bit different from men’s bracketology, but the added focus on predicting the top 16 is a fun twist.
I think the bubble is pretty clear except for the last spot. I’ve decided to keep Princeton in despite their loss to Harvard- but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Virginia Tech or James Madison hosting either.
Similarly, on the hosting bubble, I feel good about the first 15 hosts and uncertain about the last one. I’ve given Maryland the 16th and final hosting spot for now, but any of my 5 seeds realistically could be there.
Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ve had a lot of fun putting these together throughout the year.
1: South Carolina, UCLA, Texas, USC
2: Connecticut, Notre Dame, TCU, Duke
3: LSU, NC State, Oklahoma, North Carolina
4: Ohio State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Maryland
5: Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, Baylor
6: Kansas State, West Virginia, Michigan, Oklahoma State
7: Michigan State, Florida State, Illinois, Vanderbilt
8: Utah, California, Louisville, Mississippi State
9: Creighton, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota State
10: Oregon, Richmond, Georgia Tech, Harvard
11: (Washington/Columbia), (Iowa State/Princeton), George Mason, Murray State
12: Grand Canyon, Montana State, Fairfield, FGCU
13: Norfolk State, Green Bay, South Florida, Ball State
14: Liberty, Stephen F. Austin, San Diego State, Lehigh
15: Tennessee Tech, Fairleigh Dickinson, Vermont, Oregon State
16: Arkansas State, UNC Greensboro, (UC San Diego/Southern), (High Point/William & Mary)
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, James Madison, Colorado, Minnesota
Next Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Stanford, Arizona, Belmont
Men’s Bracketology 3/16/2025 AM
Happy Selection Sunday! I will have one final update of my bracketology this evening prior to the Selection Show. I’ll go through my seed list in detail today so I might swap a team or two around this afternoon.
I am going with North Carolina over Boise State for the last spot. In a world in which the committee is only getting more mathematically oriented over time, my gut says that they’ll trust their six metrics, which overwhelmingly say North Carolina should be in the field.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
4: Maryland, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue
5: Oregon, Louisville, Clemson, Ole Miss
6: Michigan, BYU, St. Mary’s, Kansas
7: Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga, Missouri
8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut
9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma
10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor
11: Arkansas, VCU, (Vanderbilt/San Diego State), UC San Diego
12: (Indiana/North Carolina), Colorado State, McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris
15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, SIUE, (American/Mount St. Mary’s), (Alabama State/St. Francis)
First Four Out: Boise State, Texas, Xavier, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Dayton, San Francisco
Men’s Bracketology 3/15/2025
On Sunday the bubble looked incredibly clear. Ohio State and Xavier were the last two teams in the field, with Boise State, North Carolina and Texas outside the field.
Since then, all hell has broken loose. Ohio State and Xavier lost their opening conference tournament games. Boise State and Colorado State have advanced to the Mountain West final, guaranteeing a bid-stealer (of sorts). North Carolina beat Wake Forest and nearly beat Duke. Texas picked up 2 Q1 wins in the SEC tournament.
The last spot in the field is very unclear right now. I’ve given it to North Carolina for now. The case against them is clear- they only have one Q1 win. However, the committee has become a lot more reliant on their metrics over the years and with a resume average of 44.3 and a predictive average of 31.7 I will say the Tar Heels grab the last spot.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Maryland
4: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue
5: Louisville, Oregon, Clemson, Ole Miss
6: BYU, St. Mary’s, Michigan, Kansas
7: Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga, Missouri
8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut
9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma
10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor
11: Arkansas, VCU, (Vanderbilt/San Diego State), (Indiana/North Carolina)
12: UC San Diego, Boise State, McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris
15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, SIUE (American/Jackson State), (Iona/St. Francis)
First Four Out: Texas, Colorado State, Xavier, UC Irvine
Next Four Out: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco
Men’s Bracketology 3/14/2025
Things have gotten interesting around the bubble. We entered Champ Week with a pretty clear at-large cut line. Since then, my last two teams in (Ohio State and Xavier) lost their opening tournament games. North Carolina and Texas have taken their spots in the field. Both of those squads have massive opportunities today (Duke and Tennessee, respectively) and will land pretty firmly on the right side of the bubble with one more win.
I will be keeping a close eye on the Mountain West tournament in the coming days. Boise State and Colorado State are in the semifinals and both hovering just outside the NCAA tournament. I think Colorado State probably needs to win the Mountain West, and Boise State might be able to get away with losing in the final, but it will depend on results elsewhere.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Maryland
4: Purdue, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Clemson
5: Oregon, Arizona, Louisville, Ole Miss
6: Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s, BYU
7: Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga, Marquette
8: Missouri, Memphis, Connecticut, Mississippi State
9: Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, Utah State
10: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Drake, Baylor
11: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU
12: UC San Diego, (North Carolina/Texas), McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris
15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (SIUE/American), (Jackson State/St. Francis)
First Four Out: Boise State, Xavier, Colorado State, UC Irvine
Next Four Out: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco
Men’s Bracketology 3/13/2025
Ohio State capped off a disappointing end to the season by falling to Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. I’m not ready to fully eliminate the Buckeyes like some other people are, but they’re firmly on the outside looking in and I give them about a 15% chance at a bid.
Some huge games on the bubble today as Xavier plays Marquette and North Carolina plays Wake Forest. Xavier is going to be in decent shape (75% tournament odds or so) with a win, while North Carolina needs to win to stay in contention and get their big shot against Duke.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State
4: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson
5: Oregon, Louisville, Arizona, Ole Miss
6: Kansas, Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s
7: Michigan, Gonzaga, BYU, Memphis
8: Marquette, Missouri, Mississippi State, Connecticut
9: Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, Oklahoma
10: Utah State, Baylor, West Virginia, Drake
11: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU
12: UC San Diego, (Xavier/North Carolina), McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris
15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (SIUE/American), (Jackson State/St. Francis)
First Four Out: Colorado State, Texas, UC Irvine, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Boise State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco
Men’s Bracketology 3/12/2025
I went through and re-scrubbed part of the bracket this morning which led to some changes on the 5, 6, 7 and 8 lines. Those teams are all pretty jumbled up, so one result here or there can move teams several places.
Power conference tournaments get started today (I refuse to consider Cal vs. Virginia Tech to be power conference basketball). I’ll be at the Big East tournament for the rest of the week and sending some updates from there.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State
4: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson
5: Oregon, Louisville, Arizona, Ole Miss
6: Kansas, Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s
7: Michigan, Gonzaga, BYU, Memphis
8: Marquette, Missouri, Mississippi State, Connecticut
9: Creighton, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia
10: Vanderbilt, Utah State, Drake, Baylor
11: Oklahoma, Arkansas, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU
12: UC San Diego, (Ohio State/Xavier), McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Northern Colorado
15: Robert Morris, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha
16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (Southern/SIUE), (American/St. Francis)
First Four Out: North Carolina, Colorado State, UC Irvine, Boise State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas, Dayton, San Francisco
Men’s Bracketology 3/10/2024
A few more tickets were punched to the tournament yesterday, but there were no major surprises. Drake removed the drama from their at-large case and won Arch Madness- I think they probably still would’ve gotten in with a loss to Bradley, but we can never know.
The only bubble team in action tonight is San Francisco. The Dons are a long-shot, they’d need to beat Gonzaga tonight and then cross their fingers and hope to get a bid. I think they have a 10% chance or so at an at-large if they win tonight.
Men’s Bracketology 3/9/2024
Here’s my late Saturday night update of my seed list. I’ll give the full seed list a full run-through on Sunday or Monday, but I wanted to get a seed list out there after all of Saturday’s bubble action.
If the tournament started today I would feel quite good about the 68 teams I have in the field. Obviously a lot can change in the next week, but I think the gap between Xavier and Nebraska for the last spot is pretty clear right now.
The bubble is also starting to thin out a bit. Some of our long shot bubble contenders (Cincinnati, SMU) have played their way out of contention. I am pretty hard pressed to think any team outside of my first four out has more than a 10% chance at a bid.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
4: Iowa State, Clemson, Maryland, Purdue
5: Oregon, St. Mary’s, Arizona, Michigan
6: Louisville, UCLA, Missouri, Memphis
7: Illinois, Kansas, Ole Miss, Marquette
8: BYU, Mississippi State, Gonzaga, Connecticut
9: Creighton, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia
10: Vanderbilt, Baylor, Utah State, San Diego State
11: Arkansas, (Oklahoma/Indiana), Drake, VCU
12: UC San Diego, (Ohio State/Xavier), McNeese, Liberty
13: High Point, Yale, Akron, Lipscomb
14: Arkansas State, Utah Valley, UNC Wilmington, Northern Colorado
15: Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Omaha
16: Wofford, Southern, (Quinnipiac/SIUE), (Bryant/Bucknell)
First Four Out: Nebraska, North Carolina, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas, Dayton, San Francisco
Moving In: Xavier, Wofford, Omaha, SIUE
Moving Out: Boise State, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota State, Southeast Missouri State
Removed from Consideration: Cincinnati, SMU
Men’s Bracketology 3/7/2025
The last weekend of the regular season is upon us. All bubble teams have one regular season game left- while some have huge opportunities (North Carolina vs. Duke), others will face off in what could be a de facto play-in game (Ohio State vs. Indiana).
Overall bubble teams have had a strong few days and this has shrunk the list of potential at-large contenders. Northwestern, TCU and Utah have left my under consideration list, and they are likely to be joined by a few more teams after the weekend.
Men’s Bracketology 3/5/2025
Tuesday night was the best bubble action we’ve had all season. Several teams got important wins- Ohio State won a dramatic 2OT game against Nebraska, Arkansas dominated Vanderbilt, and Texas nearly choked to Mississippi State but held on in OT.
I am willing to lock my first 36 teams into the field- so that’s everyone on the 1-9 lines. The next five teams are all in pretty good shape (80%+ to make the tournament), and then we get to the true bubble.
1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Tennessee
2: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State, St. John’s
3: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Texas Tech
4: Purdue, Iowa State, Michigan, Clemson
5: Arizona, Oregon, Missouri, St. Mary’s
6: Marquette, Maryland, Louisville, Memphis
7: UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss, Illinois
8: Mississippi State, Kansas, Gonzaga, Creighton
9: Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Georgia, New Mexico
10: West Virginia, Baylor, Utah State, VCU
11: San Diego State, Drake, Ohio State, (Arkansas/Indiana)
12: (Oklahoma/Boise State), UC San Diego, McNeese, Liberty
13: High Point, Yale, Akron, Lipscomb
14: Arkansas State, Utah Valley, UNC Greensboro, UNC Wilmington
15: South Dakota State, Northern Colorado, Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State
16: Robert Morris, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/Bucknell)
First Four Out: North Carolina, Xavier, Texas, Nebraska
Still Alive: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, SMU, San Francisco, Colorado State
Women’s Bracketology 3/5/2025
The final weekend of the regular season saw lots of movement along the hosting bubble. North Carolina and Tennessee took disastrous home losses, but I kept both in the top 16 as lots of other hosting contenders (Alabama, Kansas State, Baylor) lost.
On the tournament bubble, Washington knocked off Oregon to continue their winning streak and move safely into the field. Princeton moved into the field after beating Harvard, at the expense of Minnesota. The Gophers are now 2-10 in Q1+Q2 which is simply untenable for an at-large bid. I made one more swap on the bubble- I moved Virginia Tech in for Colorado after the Buffs lost a Q3 game to Texas Tech.
Men’s Bracketology 3/3/2025
We’re finally starting to see some bubble teams play their way into the bracket. Chief among them is Georgia- in the last week, the Bulldogs have gone from outside the field to a 9 seed with a huge win over Florida and then a dominating road win at Texas.
Xavier also got a huge win over the weekend against Creighton and is now my last team in the field. They take Nebraska’s place in the bracket- the Huskers fall out after a disastrous home loss to Minnesota.
I’ll be updating my bracketology more frequently now as we get closer to Selection Sunday- expect 3 or 4 updates this week.
Women’s Bracketology 2/28/2025
The bracket is getting more set in stone as all power conference teams have only one regular season game left on their schedule. Every team on my top 10 seed lines is a lock or very close to it, and the pool of potential at-large teams is shrinking rapidly.
The biggest riser since my last update is Washington, who vaulted into the field after road wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. If the Huskies knock off Oregon this weekend they’re in very good shape for a bid.
The biggest faller since my last update is Notre Dame who dropped back to back games against NC State and Florida State. Notre Dame’s path to a 1 seed looks pretty narrow now, they’d need to win the ACC tournament and have USC slip up.
Bracketology 2/28/2025
We are finally starting to see some bubble teams pick up good wins. In the last 2 days, Ohio State got a Q1 road win at USC, Boise State knocked off Utah State, and San Francisco won at Oregon State.
I moved Ohio State into the field, replacing a Wake Forest team that is nearly eliminated after an awful loss to Virginia. Boise State and San Francisco, meanwhile, will both likely move into the field if they win their next game.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston
2: Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin
3: Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, St. John’s
4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue
5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s
6: Mississippi State, UCLA, Marquette, Maryland
7: Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, Ole Miss
8: BYU, Creighton, Gonzaga, Illinois
9: Connecticut, Utah State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico
10: San Diego State, West Virginia, Drake, Nebraska
11: Baylor, Arkansas, VCU, UC San Diego
12: (Oklahoma/Ohio State), (Georgia/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State
14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Towson
16: Norfolk State, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/Bucknell)
First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas
Next Four Out: San Francisco, Xavier, SMU, Wake Forest
Not Eliminated: TCU, Colorado State, UCF, Northwestern, Arizona State, Utah
Moving In: Ohio State, Bucknell
Moving Out: Wake Forest, American
Bracketology 2/26/2025
Georgia gave up a 25 point lead at home against Florida yesterday, but managed to hold on to pick up their biggest win of the season. This moves the Bulldogs into the field- their resume average of 42.7 and predictive average of 38 are pretty comfortably better than the rest of the bubble.
I already took Florida off of the 1 line over the weekend, but the combination of their loss and Houston’s win at Texas Tech leave them pretty far back of the Cougars now.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston
2: Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, Michigan State
3: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky, St. John’s
4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue
5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s
6: Mississippi State, Maryland, UCLA, Marquette
7: Kansas, Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis
8: Creighton, Utah State, BYU, Gonzaga
9: Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, San Diego State
10: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Drake
11: Nebraska, Baylor, VCU, UC San Diego
12: (Georgia/Wake Forest), (Arkansas/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State
14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State
16: Towson, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/American)
First Four Out: Texas, Ohio State, North Carolina, Boise State
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Xavier, SMU, San Francisco
Not Eliminated: TCU, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah, UCF, Kansas State, Northwestern, Rutgers
Bracketology 2/24/2025
Changes abound up and down the seed list after a hectic weekend. Some of the most notable decisions I made include:
1) I moved Tennessee back up to the 1 line after their road win at Texas A&M. Tennessee’s depth of quality wins (9 Q1, 6 Q1A) gave them the nod over Florida for the last 1 seed. Houston will be right in that conversation as well if they knock off Texas Tech tonight.
2) I moved Ohio State out of the field. This would’ve been pretty unthinkable a few weeks ago but the Buckeyes were blown out at home by Northwestern and at 15-13, they are going to need to go 2-1 in their remaining games to have a chance at an at-large.
3) I moved Purdue down to the 5 line. The Boilermakers were a 2 seed just over a week ago but have dropped 3 straight. I gave my last protected seed to Missouri instead of Purdue- The Tigers’ two wins over possible 1 seeds put them over the line.
Note that I had to move BYU all the way down to an 11 seed to satisfy bracketing principles. I have the Cougars at #31 on my seed list but since they don’t play on Sunday, there were no available spots for them on the 8, 9 or 10 lines.
Men’s Bracketology 2/21/2025
Ohio State and Nebraska were both well on their way to an at-large bid, but both took blowout losses to non-tournament teams this week. I’ve dropped them both to the 10 line- but this year’s bubble is too weak to drop either of them out of the field.
Hopes continue to grow for mid-major at-large teams this year. Drake is in decent shape for a bid even after their recent loss to Bradley. In the A10, VCU will get in if they win the rest of their regular season games and I think UC San Diego will as well.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Florida
2: Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin, Texas A&M
3: Iowa State, Purdue, Michigan, Kentucky
4: Arizona, Michigan State, Missouri, Texas Tech
5: Mississippi State, Marquette, St. John’s, Ole Miss
6: Maryland, Louisville, UCLA, Kansas
7: St. Mary’s, Oregon, Memphis, Clemson
8: Illinois, Creighton, Utah State, Baylor
9: New Mexico, Connecticut, Gonzaga, BYU
10: San Diego State, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Ohio State
11: Vanderbilt, Drake, VCU, (West Virginia/Texas)
12: (SMU/Arkansas), UC San Diego, Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, Akron, High Point, Arkansas State
14: Utah Valley, Lipscomb, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State, Towson, Cleveland State
16: Southern, Bryant, (Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri), (Omaha/American)
First Four Out: Oklahoma, George Mason, TCU, Georgia
Next Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Xavier, Indiana
Also Considered: San Francisco, UC Irvine, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Utah, Kansas State, USC