College Football Futures Bets- Week 6 2025

Week 5 was another good one for my futures bets. The biggest results were Ole Miss beating LSU and Alabama beating Georgia. We’re long Ole Miss and Alabama and short LSU and Georgia and marked in on all four legs- the LSU shorts in particular moved a lot in our favor.

New Bets

Penn State to miss the Playoff +140 (3 units)

I don’t think Penn State is on the same level as the elite teams in the sport. They’re down to seventh in my ratings after the loss to Oregon.

More importantly, I am not convinced a 10-2 Penn State team makes the playoff. It’s pretty likely they win exactly 10 games- the most likely scenario is that they lose at Ohio State and win the rest of their games. That would give them one good win (over Indiana) and likely no other ranked wins (unless Nebraska or Iowa sneaks into the top 25). They played absolutely no one in non-conference play, and also drew the dregs of the Big Ten in conference play (UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State). That makes for a light playoff resume.

If it comes down to a 10-2 Penn State or a 10-2 SEC team for the last playoff spot, Penn State will be on the outside looking in.

Texas A&M to make the Playoff -114 (2 units)

I got 2 units on Texas A&M to make the playoff at +245 in the preseason and am doubling down here. The Aggies are ninth in my ratings, and are already building a good playoff resume. Their win at Notre Dame is going to look amazing at the end of the year (I expect the Irish to finish 10-2 or 9-3). That makes A&M a playoff lock at 10-2, and I think they’ll get some consideration at 9-3. They also avoid my model’s three best SEC teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss) in conference play- the slate is manageable by SEC standards.

Louisiana Tech to win CUSA +200 (2 units)

This is a strange line. Louisiana Tech might have the best defense in the G5- their defense has smothered other G5 teams and held LSU to only 23 points. They’re the best team in Conference USA- and the only teams that are close are Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Delaware. They don’t play Jacksonville State, and Delaware is ineligible for the conference title this year.

The only reason I’m not sizing this bet bigger is because I think HC Sonny Cumbie is a bit of a dumbass. Everyone in the industry expected him to be fired last year but it appears Louisiana Tech was too broke to fire him. However, it seems he has a good roster and the thousand pound gorilla of CUSA (Liberty) sucks this year. That opens a door for the Bulldogs.

Ohio State to win the Big Ten +180 (1 unit)

I’ve had Ohio State #1 in my ratings since the preseason and am not stopping now. Their offense has taken a step back, but their defense is terrifying. I expected their secondary to be elite, but their pass rush is unexpectedly the best in the country as well. They’re well set up from a tiebreaker perspective as well- if they win the Penn State game (which is at home), they’re very likely to make the Big Ten title game. They avoid both Indiana and Oregon in conference play.

Alabama to win the SEC +320 (1 unit)

I bet Alabama to win the SEC at +500 in the preseason and I’m back for more. The talent is obviously there. Encouragingly, OC Ryan Grubb appears to be back in his groove now that he’s back in college after a brief stint with the Seahawks. He really emptied the bag of tricks against Georgia last week.

This is the most talented roster in the sport outside of Columbus, Ohio, and they already have a win over Georgia. Their toughest remaining games (Oklahoma, LSU) are at home. They’re the clear SEC favorite.

Toledo to win the MAC +360 (1 unit)

I bet on Toledo to win the MAC at +185 a few weeks ago, and then they lost a stupid game to Western Michigan. That’s unfortunate, but Toledo has a habit of being the best team in the MAC and then losing a stupid game somewhere. It doesn’t change my belief that this is the most talented team in the conference. Does anyone else in the MAC have a 200 yard/game rushing attack led by a former Ohio State RB?

Louisville to make the Playoff +610 (1 unit)

Everyone keeps forgetting about Jeff Brohm’s Louisville. They started the season nearly ranked, and are now 4-0- having performed right in line with the spread in every game so far. I’m a bit perplexed that they’re not ranked in the AP Poll, and not even among the first few teams out either.

Their next two games- home to Virginia and at Miami- are huge. A split there keeps them in good shape for the second spot in the ACC title game. Their November schedule also looks much easier than it did in the preseason with Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU and Kentucky all underperforming.

Rooting Guide

Here are the most important games to follow in week 6 if you’ve been betting on my futures all season.

Texas (-7) @ Florida: We’re really short Texas. So far, so good- they lost to Ohio State and then beat a bunch of cupcakes. This is their first real game in a month, and an upset here would make our shorts deep in the money.

Western Kentucky @ Delaware (-2.5): This is a huge one for us. We have Western Kentucky under 7.5 wins. We are also implicitly short WKU from our longs on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. We also have Delaware to win 10+ games at +2100, and that is very much alive if they win this one.

Miami (-4.5) @ Florida State: We’re long both teams but longer Miami. We have Miami to go undefeated at +280 and that’ll be around even money if they win this game.

Sam Houston State (-2.5) @ New Mexico State: We have New Mexico State over 4.5 wins. That’s around a coin flip right now, and this game is also a coin flip.

UNLV (-3.5) @ Wyoming. We have 5 units on UNLV under 8.5 wins. The good news is they’ve looked bad so far this season. They bad news is they’re undefeated because they keep pulling rabbits out of their hat. We’re out of the money and need them to lose games like this.

Texas Tech (-12.5) @ Houston: We are pretty long Texas Tech. The market agrees with us- their odds to make the playoff have moved from +205 (where we bet) to +120 without them playing a game.

Clemson (-14) @ North Carolina: We have some wing puts on North Carolina. The good news is those puts are becoming closer to at the money as they keep looking awful.

Boise State @ Notre Dame (-20.5): We’re long both teams to make the playoff but a Boise State win would definitely be good for us.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (-14): We now have 4 units on A&M to make the playoff and need them to take care of business here.

Central Michigan (-8.5) @ Akron: Our bet on CMU over 5.5 wins is looking solid and will look even better with a win here.

Kansas (-5) @ UCF: We’re long some wing calls on UCF that will decay a good bit with a loss here.

Kentucky @ Georgia (-20.5): We’re pretty short Georgia. They inexplicably struggled with Kentucky last year and a repeat of that would be great.

James Madison (-19.5) @ Georgia State: We have two units on JMU to win the Sun Belt at +400- it’s around +110 now. They’ll be big favorites in several upcoming games, we need them to keep taking care of business.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama (-10.5): We’re long both teams- it’s not clear to me what result we’d prefer. A Vanderbilt win would certainly be funnier.

College Football Picks- Week 6 2025

Futures*: +5.13 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Season Total: +3.52 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week was mixed for my weekly picks- Syracuse had the doors blown off at home by Duke. Mississippi State, meanwhile, covered easily and lost in OT as a +285 ML underdog. Not the best week, but if that’s what counts as a down week, I’ll take it.

Colorado State @ San Diego State (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)

Colorado State is a low-key awful situation right now. Their only win is over FCS Northern Colorado, and they only won that game after being bailed out by the refs on an awful call to end the game. They got killed last week at home by a bad Washington State team.

San Diego State, meanwhile, is finally turning things around under HC Sean Lewis. They were uncharacteristically bad last year, but this is a program that recruits pretty well and has the talent to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. They should be a bigger favorite here.

San Diego State -6.5 -115 (1 unit)

Clemson @ North Carolina (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

In the preseason, I bet North Carolina under 3.5 wins bet at +1600. My thesis was that Bill Belichick might just give up on the Tar Heels if things start going poorly, and thus their downside tail was a lot fatter than other similar teams.

That thesis looks pretty strong now- the Tar Heels have been non-competitive in two games against P4 teams. It’s also worth noting that other college coaches are pretty annoyed with Belichick waltzing into their sport and pretending he knows how everything works. UCF kept the starters in for longer than you’d expect and I think that Dabo will do the same- CFB coaches feel disrespected by Belichick and want to run up the score on him.

Clemson -26.5 +346 (1 unit)

Syracuse @ SMU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Yes, it’s Syracuse again. I know I got killed betting on the Orange last week, but the thesis is a bit different this time. I don’t think backup QB Rickie Collins was that bad last week- he threw for 6.2 yards/attempt. The problem was that his receivers lost two fumbles and three trips inside the Duke 25 resulted in three points. Syracuse was the worse team, but fumble luck and red zone woes are pretty funky.

I think everyone is writing off Syracuse because they got blown out in the first game with the backup QB. I’m happy to buy another wing call on Syracuse as I think the market has overreacted on them.

Syracuse ML +470 (0.5 units)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 5 2025

Last week went well for my futures bets but nearly went very well. I marked in on North Texas longs and Oklahoma State shorts. I marked out a good bit on my Oklahoma longs with QB John Mateer’s injury- it’s not clear when he’ll be back.

New Bets

Indiana to make the Playoff +198 (3 units)

Indiana to win the Big Ten +1500 (1 unit)

I’ve been high on Indiana for some time- I bet them to make the playoff at +630 in the preseason. (Of course, I also had the Hoosiers to make the playoff at 30/1 last year). They’re up to fifth in my ratings after a dominating win over Illinois. It’s not just my computer that’s so high on them- they’re seventh in SP+ and sixth in FPI.

Based on that, it doesn’t make sense to me that they’re still +198 to make the playoff. They have to go to both Penn State and Oregon. They likely have to win one of those games to make the playoff- they’l be around a six point underdog in both. The Hoosiers’ ceiling is higher than it was last year.

Texas Tech to make the Playoff +205 (2 units)

Texas Tech to win the Big 12 +270 (1 unit)

Texas Tech was a pretty high volatility team in the preseason. The bull case on them was clear- they brought in the best transfer class in the country (especially on the lines), and their raw talent is the highest in the Big 12. The bear case on them was also clear- maybe all the big money transfers wouldn’t gel.

A month into the season, it looks pretty clear that we’re in the bull case. Texas Tech physically dominated Utah on the road last week- famously not an easy team to physically dominate! QB Behren Morton is hurt, but I think backup Will Hammond might be better. Texas Tech’s ceiling is very high given the talent on this roster and I’m buying the Red Raiders.

Miami to go undefeated +280 (2 units)

Miami’s bull case has also been clear. The Hurricanes have a ton of talent. EDGE Reuben Bain looks like the best defender in the country and is an easy top 10 pick in the NFL draft. QB Carson Beck has taken a big step forward- his 2024 struggles look more like a Mike Bobo problem than a Carson Beck problem.

Miami might drop a stupid game somewhere, because at the end of the day, this is still a Mario Cristobal team. But I like buying a wing call on the “Canes- they are so much more talented than the rest of the ACC and they might just dominate the rest of their schedule.

Memphis to go undefeated +550 (2 units)

You’ll notice a common theme in this article- Memphis also has money. They have the biggest NIL budget in the G5, thanks to the late FedEx founder Fred Smith. It shows on this roster- especially in the trenches. They ran for nearly 300 yards against an SEC defense last week when they played Arkansas. Memphis has a relatively easy schedule by AAC standards and might be able to bully teams to a 12-0 finish.

Ole Miss to make the Playoff +145 (1 unit)

I was a seller of Ole Miss in the preseason but I have flipped to becoming a buyer. The Rebels have played themselves into a QB controversy- Austin Simmons got hurt a few weeks ago and backup Trinidad Chambliss has been electric in his place. I think Ole Miss is in a good position no matter who plays going forwards, and their schedule is one of the easiest in the SEC. 10-2 will be enough to make the playoff and Ole Miss is a bit better than a coin flip to get there.

Michigan to make the Playoff +410 (1 unit)

Michigan’s season looked lost after the Oklahoma loss. Since then, they took care of Nebraska on the road (the close final score is misleading- they were the better team by far), and Oklahoma keeps looking better. Michigan still has tough games against USC, Washington and Ohio State. If they finish 10-2, they should get in. Now that they’re back in the teens in my ratings, that certainly looks possible.

Rooting Guide- Week 5

I’ve placed so many futures bets this year (nearly 100 now!) that keeping track of everything is tough. I’m now publishing a weekly rooting guide- so if you’ve been betting on my picks all year, you know what to pay attention to this weekend. These are roughly ordered by importance.

LSU @ Ole Miss (-1.5): We’re long Ole Miss and short LSU. Fun fact- Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss came from D2 Ferris State. LSU HC Brian Kelly got his start coaching at D2 Grand Valley State- Ferris State’s archival. A fun subplot to monitor for my fellow Michiganders.

Indiana (-8.5) @ Iowa: This line has steadily moved in Indiana’s favor all week as everyone catches up to how good the Hoosiers are.

Alabama @ Georgia (-2.5): We have Georgia to miss the playoff and Alabama to win the SEC. An Alabama win here might be a prerequisite for both.

South Alabama @ North Texas (-12.5): Our North Texas +3000 to make the playoff bet from last week is already +600 or so. We want them to keep winning.

Oregon @ Penn State (-3.5): I bet Penn State -4 in this game in the preseason. We have some more short exposure on Oregon as well.

San Jose State @ Stanford (-3): Our Stanford longs are nearly hopeless. We need them to win this to have any hope.

Duke (-4.5) @ Syracuse: We’re long some very far wing calls on Syracuse, we would need a win here to keep it alive.

Bowling Green @ Ohio (-7.5): We have Ohio to win the MAC and this is one of the biggest games on their schedule.

Ohio State (-8.5) @ Washington: We have Ohio State to go undefeated. This is one of the tougher games on their schedule- and the line has been dropping all week.

Western Kentucky (-4.5) @ Missouri State: We are synthetically short WKU from our bets on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. An upset here would be awesome.

TCU @ Arizona State (-3): We’re long both these teams but longer TCU.

Louisiana Tech (-3.5) @ UTEP: We have Louisiana Tech to win CUSA- they need to take care of business in games like this to do that.

Liberty @ Old Dominion (-14.5): We bought some wing calls on Old Dominion that look good. We need them to take care of business.

New Mexico State @ New Mexico (-14.5): We’re long New Mexico State and short New Mexico. An upset here would be awesome.

College Football Picks- Week 5 2025

Futures*: -2.39 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Season Total: -0.87 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week went well, but it could have gone much better. Both of the wing bets I did for half a unit (Tulsa ML and UCF -20.5) hit, while the one I had for a full unit (Miami -20.5) came very close as the Hurricanes won by 19. I also marked in a few units on my futures, mostly on Oklahoma State losing and North Texas winning.

Duke @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Syracuse pulled off a massive upset last week on the road against Clemson. Fran Brown is in his second year as Syracuse HC and it couldn’t be going much better- the Orange finished ranked in year 1 and look good in year 2.

Duke, meanwhile, beat NC State last week in a completely fraudulent win. NC State couldn’t stop turning the ball over and was the better team for most of the game.

Unfortunately, Syracuse QB Steve Angeli tore his Achilles against Clemson and is out for the season. Backup QB Rickie Collins steps in- he’s a former four star who was the backup at LSU before transferring to Syracuse. He has only 21 pass attempts in his career but he does have some recruit pedigree.

Syracuse has a solid roster and was physically more impressive than Clemson in the trenches. I like the Orange a good bit and am also buying some wing calls on them- there’s a chance Rickie Collins is just good, we simply don’t know yet.

Syracuse +6.5 -102 (2 units)

Syracuse ML +198 (1 unit)

Syracuse to make the ACC title game 30/1 (0.5 units)

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)

I expected Mississippi State to be awful this year. They were my clear pick for the basement of the SEC in the preseason. They have proved me wrong with a nice win over Arizona State and a dominating road win against a decent Southern Miss team.

The whole SEC is a lot more clustered together than people realize. There’s really not many matchups in this league where one team should be a double digit road favorite- 14/16 SEC teams are between 7th and 35th in my ratings. Mississippi State has the talent to hang in this game at home. This year’s Tennessee team also does not have the explosive offense to blow the doors off people the way the Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker teams did.

Mississippi State +10.5 -115 (1 unit)

Mississippi State ML +285 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 4 2025

We lost a bit on our existing futures last week, mostly led by New Mexico beating UCLA (I was in attendance- it was one of the most entertaining games I’ve seen in person in a long time). We were short both teams, but shorter New Mexico, so mark out around 3.5 units there.

New Picks

Old Dominion to win Sun Belt East +300 (2 units)

Old Dominion to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)

I had Old Dominion +13.5 last week. The line closed at 5.5! That’s some of the craziest line movement I’ve ever seen. I regret not playing the ML.

The fun doesn’t stop there for my Monarchs. I am very high on them and think they have one of the highest ceilings in the G5. QB Colton Joseph has taken a massive step forward in his sophomore year and is grading out as one of the best in the G5. He is surrounded by a great offense- ODU went the JUCO route with their skill positions and it has paid off handsomely this off-season.

The Sun Belt East is going to come down to Old Dominion and James Madison. I think the teams are comparable. I also like buying some wing calls here- a 12-1 Old Dominion team (whose only loss would be to a ranked Indiana) has a very good shot at the playoff.

Toledo to win the MAC +185 (2 units)

There’s one name to know in Toledo- RB Chip Trayanum. The former Ohio State product is finally healthy and is averaging over six yards per carry for one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Toledo always hasthe most talented roster in the MAC (they’re the richest team in the MAC- no coincidence there).

The MAC is going to be a 2 horse race between Toledo and Ohio. They don’t play in the regular season, and we’re already long Ohio to win the MAC at +250. I like adding some on the Rockets.

LSU to miss the Playoff +168 (1 unit)

The computer models do not like LSU- mine included. The Tigers are 8th in my ratings, and 17th (!) in SP+. This line is too anchored to their #3 rankings in the AP Poll. Their offense was horrendous against Florida- they had a ton of short fields thanks to DJ Lagway’s 5 INTs and the offense only managed 13 points (the defense pitched in with a pick-six). I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be a small dog at Ole Miss in two weeks.

Miami to win the ACC +170 (1 unit)

The models, on the other hand, do like Miami. Carson Beck looks much better this year (did he have a Mike Bobo problem?). The Canes look amazing on both lines as well. There very well could be a head-scratching Mario Cristobal-fueled loss somewhere (November 29th against Pitt, anyone?) but this is the best team in the ACC and no one is close.

Louisiana Tech to win Conference USA +425 (1 unit)

Someone’s got to win Conference USA. Last week I bet on Jax State to do it, this week it’s Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs beat the brakes off NMSU last week, and avoid fellow CUSA contender Jax State in conference play.

North Texas to make the Playoff +3000 (1 unit)

East Carolina to make the Playoff +5000 (0.25 units)

These two bets go together. The thesis is as follows:

(a) The American is by far the best G5 conference this year. The G5 team in the playoff will very likely be the winner of The American- the other realistic contenders are James Madison, Old Dominion and Boise State- but all have a loss already.

(b) North Texas and East Carolina have much longer odds to make the playoff than to win the conference (+750 and +1500 respectively). I think that if they win the league, they are likely to make the playoff.

(c) I like both teams. North Texas is led by HC Eric Morris who is an offensive guru (he was the HC at Incarnate Word who found an un-recruited 1 star named Cam Ward). The shocking thing about UNT is that they appear to have a defense for the first time in years. ECU has an exciting QB in Katin Houser and the best skill talent they’ve seen in years.

California to make the ACC Title Game +1700 (0.5 units)

I have watched more Cal football in my life than anyone should be subjected to. Not since Jared Goff was in Berkeley have I been as excited by a Cal QB as I am by true freshman Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele. Cal beat out Oregon for JKS and he has been brilliant through three weeks. Cal has one of the easiest schedules in the ACC and will be favored in their next six games. JKS gives the Golden Bears an upside that they haven’t had in a decade.

Vanderbilt to make the Playoff +1260 (0.5 units)

Vanderbilt was a fun story this year. This year they are just good. They killed South Carolina 31-7 on the road this week, and were beating them badly even before LaNorris Sellers got hurt. The Commodores are into the top 20 of my model. While the schedule is brutal, I think that this line is too juicy for a top 20 team.

Rooting Guide

If you’ve been betting my futures all season, here’s what you should be rooting for this week. These are ordered in rough order of importance.

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (-13.5): Not only do we have Tulsa ML, but a Tulsa win would put our OK State under 4.5 wins tickets massively in the money.

Auburn @ Oklahoma (-6.5): Oklahoma is looking good a few weeks in. Over 6.5 wins is looking very solid and a win here would send the Sooners’ playoff odds to near 50% (we have +550).

UNLV (-2.5) @ Miami (OH): This is a huge game for us. We have UNLV under 8.5 wins and need them to lose games like this. The line movement is in our favor- this opened around -6 and was quickly bet down.

Tulane @ Ole Miss (-11.5): Tulane would become the undisputable G5 playoff favorite with a win here. We have them to make the playoff at +750.

North Texas (-1.5) @ Army: Our North Texas longs will pick up a lot of steam with a win here.

Troy @ Buffalo (-6): Our Troy over 5.5 wins ticket is around a coin flip right now. An upset here would be great.

Boise State (-10) @ Air Force: We need Boise to take care of business in games like this- it’s their first FBS opponents since the week 1 loss to South Florida.

NC State @ Duke (-3): Our Duke shorts are looking good after they were dominated by Tulane. A loss here would help us even more.

Michigan (-2.5) @ Nebraska: We have Nebraska to make the playoff. That likely requires a win here.

Stanford @ Virginia (-15.5): I had written off our Stanford longs, and then they surprised BC as a 2 touchdown underdog. Let’s see if they can keep it going.

Delaware @ FIU (-6.5): I have some hope for our Delaware 10+ wins ticket. It would require a win here.

Arkansas (-7) @ Memphis: We’re long Arkansas and implicitly short Memphis by being long other teams in the American. Once again, the line movement is on our side- this line opened at Arkansas -4 and has been steadily bid up.

Fresno State (-3) @ Hawaii: If Boise State stumbles, our other long in the Mountain West is Fresno State.

Illinois @ Indiana (-4.5): We are long both teams but a bit longer Indiana.

College Football Picks Week 4 2025

Futures*: -6.55 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Season Total: -10.19 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week felt like it could’ve gone a lot better than it did. I had Georgia Tech +6.5, Old Dominion +13.5 and Delaware +10.5. All three won outright. The two games where I had the ML underdog (Tennessee and South Florida), the underdog didn’t win (although Tennessee came awfully close).

Despite the mediocre start to the year, I am still pretty happy with how the model is performing. I am routinely generating a ton of closing line value on both my weekly picks and my futures. That’s a much more stable signal than PnL this early in the season. The PnL will come soon.

In addition to the picks below, I have TCU -4 (I got that last week, it’s TCU -6.5 now) and Washington State +10.5 and +11.5 (I got that in June- it’s +19.5 now).

North Carolina @ UCF (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

This line moved in a hurry- I snatched up 3.5 right when it got listed and it went to 6.5 within a few minutes. North Carolina has avoided disaster the last two weeks against Charlotte and Richmond, but both of those teams suck. UCF might start backup QB Tayven Jackson here if starter Cam Fancher is not able to go. To be honest, I slightly prefer Jackson, but both of them give UCF a significant leg up here.

I am also trying something new here and putting a little bit on UCF alt line. I historically haven’t played alt lines but given what we saw in week 1, North Carolina has a much higher than normal chance of a complete implosion.

UCF -3.5 -110 (2 units)

UCF -20.5 +400 (0.5 units)

James Madison @ Liberty (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Liberty has been a disappointment this year, losing back to back games against Jacksonville State and Bowling Green by a touchdown each. This is the opportunity to buy the dip on Liberty. The Flames have a lot more talent than we’ve seen so far- they have so much more money than most G5 programs and have the depth to match.

Liberty +11.5 -105 (1 unit)

Liberty ML +360 (0.5 units)

BYU @ East Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I am pretty intrigued by what I see from East Carolina this year (they’ll be making a return appearance in my futures bets later this week). I am impressed with QB Katin Houser- advanced stats systems are salivating over the former Michigan State product this year. ECU has always leveraged their low academic standards to bring in a ton of junior college guys and they’ve done a great job with that this year, especially on defense. I’m not fully convinced by BYU (their QB situation is one of the worst in the P4) and this line is too big.

East Carolina +9.5 -110 (1 unit)

Florida @ Miami (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

My model believes in Miami. They were very convincing against South Florida last week and are playing like a top 5 team in the country. I’m only playing the alt line here- Florida has some real quit risk that I want to take advantage of. The Gators are off to a 1-2 start and with all the rumors flying around the program there’s a chance that HC Billy Napier has totally lost the team. Miami would love to put a beating on their in-state rivals and has the talent to do it.

Miami -20.5 +333 (1 unit)

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)

I’ll be honest- Tulsa is bad. The good news here is that Oklahoma State is also bad. OK State has lost countless games to bad teams in recent years (the 33-7 home demolition to South Alabama two year ago comes to mind). With a Mike Gundy team, you never really know how low the floor might be. I like a flier on Tulsa ML.

Tulsa ML +440 (0.5 units)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 3 2025

I promised my readers in the off-season that I would be placing more futures bets this year. I made a ton betting futures last year, and I feel pretty strongly that it is where I have the most edge relative to the rest of the market. I included a few futures bets in my last post (e.g. Jacksonville State to win CUSA) but I made a bunch more this week that I’ll explain below.

Futures Bets- Week 3

Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins -118 (3 units)

I bet Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +140 in the preseason. All the Cowboys have done since is (a) get vaporized 69-3 by Oregon (b) have their starting QB get injured against UT Martin. HC Mike Gundy has spent the last two weeks complaining about how little money he has to spend on his roster and he looks like a man ready to give up on his team. I think things are going to get real bad in Stillwater and I am shocked this line is still 4.5. OK State might be the worst team in the Power Five.

UCLA under 3.5 wins -140 (2 units)

UCLA has looked awful through two weeks. Transfer QB Nico Iamaleava is doing what he can given the circumstances, but the fact of the matter is that his offensive line is a dumpster fire. He nearly led a comeback last week against UNLV before throwing a game-losing interception directly at a linebacker.

I will be in attendance tonight at the Rose Bowl as UNLV takes on New Mexico. That will likely be the only game they’re favored in the rest of the way. I simply do not see four wins on this schedule.

Ole Miss to make the Playoff +300 (1 unit)

I bet Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -176 in June. The fact that I can get out of that trade for a scalp now is shocking to me. The Rebels have looked great through two weeks, and QB Austin Simmons is generating a ton of hype in Oxford. The Rebels looked solid at Kentucky last week (a stark contrast from their disastrous home loss to Kentucky last year) and are in the top 10 of several computers (and 14th in mine). This has been a strong start to the season for Lane Kiffin’s squad and I am happy to flatten my exposure here for a net win.

Illinois to make the Playoff +630 (1 unit)

I know a lot of Illini fans and I have been talking down about Bret Bielema’s squad for months. It is time for me to change my tune. Illinois is not the #9 team in the country like the AP Poll suggests, but they looked pretty impressive against Duke last week. Their schedule is extremely manageable and I have them around 25% to make the playoff- making this an easy bet.

Nebraska to make the Playoff +790 (1 unit)

If you want to talk about soft Big Ten schedules, look no further than Nebraska. The Cornhuskers avoid Ohio State and Oregon and play several of the Big Ten’s worst teams. I also like buying wing calls on teams with exciting QBs. Dylan Raiola clearly has some upside tail- if he plays like the high-end 5 star he is, then Nebraska could easily win every game on the schedule except for Penn State. Nebraska is only a 1.5 point dog at home to Michigan next weekend.

UCF to win 8+ games +320 (1 unit)

UCF is experimenting a bit at quarterback. They have a few exciting options on their roster with former Marshall QB Cam Fancher and former Indiana QB Tayven Jackson. Whoever ends up leading the team will have an incredibly manageable schedule coming up, including a home game against Bill Belichick’s UNC.

Arkansas to win 8+ games +390 (1 unit)

Arkansas has looked impressive through two weeks and has moved into my model’s top 25. Their schedule is brutal (a full SEC slate, plus non-conference games against Memphis and Notre Dame). However, there’s enough talent on this roster, including QB Taylen Green, that my model thinks there is a decent bull case in Fayetteville.

SMU @ TCU (Week 4)

There’s a few lookahead lines listed for next week, and this one was interesting to me. I’m already long TCU (I have them to make the playoff at +920 and +500) and short SMU. The Horned Frogs’ offense looked amazing in week 1 and I’m bullish on QB Josh Hoover. I expect this line to drift up to a touchdown or so once it gets re-listed.

TCU -4 -110 (1 unit)

Fresno State to win the Mountain West +1000 (0.5 units)

The Mountain West as a whole has looked awful through two weeks of the season. You can tell from the fact that Boise State was -125 to win the league in the offseason, got killed by South Florida, and is still -125 to win the league. The only team that has really impressed me is Fresno State, who has won two coin flip games against Oregon State and Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs have a lot more talent than the rest of the league (save Boise State) and are worth a lottery ticket at 10/1.

Auburn to win the SEC +2500 (0.5 units)

I am still not bought in on Hugh Freeze. He will probably find a way for Auburn to lose some games in stupid fashion. However, there is enough talent on this roster (Cam Coleman, Jackson Arnold etc.) that the top end of the distribution for Auburn is pretty exciting. In a crowded SEC with no clear team at the top, I like this lottery ticket on the Tigers.

Rooting Guide- Week 3

This year, I’m publishing a weekly rooting guide. I have so many futures plays that if you’re betting all of them, keeping track of your exposure can be difficult. Below is a quick guide of what you want to root for this week:

Saturday 11 AM Central:

Clemson (-3) @ Georgia Tech: We bet on Georgia Tech +6.5 here, but have a lot of long exposure on Clemson. I’d be happy with either result.

Memphis (-4) @ Troy: We have Troy over 5.5 wins. The Trojans have looked pretty good through two weeks, and winning this game as a home dog would put us significantly in the money.

Saturday 2:30 PM Central:

Georgia (-4) @ Tennessee: We bet on Tennessee ML and have other short exposure on Georgia as well.

Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-6.5): This would be a great win for our Arkansas longs.

Saturday Evening:

Florida @ LSU (-7): It might surprise you that LSU is only a 7 point favorite here, but the computers don’t like them that much. A Gators win would be really nice for us.

Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (-6.5): We are long both these teams and it’s not clear which result we’d prefer.

Minnesota (-2.5) @ California: We are long Minnesota and they have looked great through two weeks, but this is their first real test.

College Football Picks Week 3 2025

Futures*: -0.54 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Season Total: -3.50 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week went pretty well. I hit on USF ML +650 (would’ve been nice if I bet a full unit there instead of half a unit!) and my futures did decently as well. Oklahoma looked quite good against Michigan, and my preseason bets on the Sooners are looking pretty good- I have them to make the playoff at +550.

Before going into my picks for the week, I will warn you that I made these bets on Sunday. There was an enormous amount of line movement on some of these picks this week and some of these lines are definitely not available in the market anymore. I’ve noticed an increasing value in the last year of getting my picks down right when the lines open. In the future I’ll try writing up my picks earlier in the week, but given how much lines move on Sunday mornings, you need to be very prompt to get the best prices.

Week 3 Picks

Duke @ Tulane (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

I’ve been on the Tulane bandwagon for a while now- I have the Green Wave to win the American +390 and them to make the playoff +750 (both bets are pretty significantly in the money now). This is an intriguing matchup as former Tulane QB Darian Mensah transferred to Duke in the off-season and this is a homecoming game for him. Tulane has one of the most talented rosters in the Group of Five and Duke could not get out of their own way against Illinois last week. I think Tulane should be a decent favorite here.

It’s not just that I like Tulane- I also think Duke is overrated. The top end of their roster (Mensah, WR Andrel Anthony) is good but their overall talent score is quite low. Duke was way worse than their record last year and is going to take a significant step back this season

Tulane -2.5 -110 (2 units)

Duke under 6.5 wins +120 (1 unit)

Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Jacksonville State. Former HC Rich Rodriguez went back to West Virginia. Jax State made a very shrewd hire in Charles Kelly- he’s a first time head coach at 58 years old, but has extended stints at Alabama and Auburn on his resume. He knows the Gamecocks’ home state of Alabama like the back of his hand and has found some good players no one else wanted.

Georgia Southern, meanwhile, is having a disappointing season. The Eagles were killed by Fresno State week 1. They were supposed to be contenders in the Sun Belt East, but look like the third best team in the division at best. HC Clay Helton’s seat is starting to get warm.

I’m really high on Jax State. I’m also low on some of the other contenders in CUSA (Liberty, Western Kentucky). I’m doubling up on my exposure to the Gamecocks.

Jacksonville State +6.5 -110 (2 units)

Jacksonville State to win Conference USA +550 (2 units)

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Clemson has looked very shaky through two weeks. The Tigers struggled with Troy last week and have fallen down to 11th in my power ratings. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, beat Colorado on the road in week 1 despite awful turnover luck. I’ve liked the Yellow Jackets all season, and if they win this game, their schedule is extremely manageable until a Black Friday showdown against Georgia.

Georgia Tech +6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Georgia @ Tennessee (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I’ve been low on Georgia all season- I bet the Dawgs to miss the playoff at +198 back in June. They have done nothing to impress so far, looking sluggish against two awful teams.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has put on two impressive offensive performances in two weeks. Josh Heupel appears to be moving away from his traditional formation with extremely wide splits and running more of a typical shotgun look. The Volunteers have adapted to QB Joey Aguilar and are running an offense more similar to what he saw at App State, and they’ve looked great doing it.

This line has moved in my favor a ton since Sunday. I regret not betting more here.

Tennessee ML +215 (1 unit)

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

I have never seen more aggressive line movement on a bet than I did here. I bet Old Dominion +13.5 right when I saw the line get listed on DraftKings on Sunday morning. Within an hour the line was +8.5. 13.5 was simply an incorrect line (and I should have bet more). Virginia Tech is an awful situation right now- HC Brent Pry is odds-on to be fired by year end. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is finally putting something together under Ricky Rahne and could challenge for the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion +13.5 -110 (1 unit)

Connecticut @ Delaware (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

This is Delaware’s first home game against an FBS opponent in their history. It’s the Blue Hens’ first season as an FBS member, and I’m intrigued by what I see so far- a blowout win over Delaware State and a reasonably competitive loss to Colorado. This is a more talented team than you’d expect thanks to the number of guys they held out last year to prep for the FBS transition. I like Delaware in this one.

Delaware +10.5 -110 (1 unit)

South Florida @ Miami (FL) (Saturday, 3:30 PM Central)

How good is South Florida? No one really knows- there’s significant disagreement between computer systems right now. It really depends on how tightly you hold onto your preseason priors. The Bulls are up to 35th in my power ratings, the top rated team in the Group of Five.

I like USF, and I’m purposefully only betting the moneyline here. There’s some decent upside tail to their distribution given what we’ve seen through the first two weeks and I think that is underpriced by the market.

South Florida ML +525 (0.5 units)

College Football Picks Week 2 2025

Futures*: -4.46 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Season Total: -10.03 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week was not great for me. The three good results were Rice beating Louisiana (I had Rice ML +470), Texas losing to Ohio State (I sold a ton of Texas exposure in the preseason) and UNC getting embarrassed (I have UNC U3.5 wins +1600).

Pretty much everything else went wrong. Boise State and Clemson losing hurt a lot. It was an unfortunate week 1, but I have recovered from bad week 1s multiple times in recent years.

Week 2 Picks

Houston @ Rice (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Betting on Rice worked great last week and I am sticking with it this week. Rice is going to be a pretty high variance team this year- they have an extremely quirky offense that is a pain to prepare for. That makes them a nice ML underdog to bet on. I also just think they’re better than most people realize- new coach Scott Abell is an expert FCS coach and brought in a lot of intriguing talent from that level. I don’t think the market adjusted enough after their win over Louisiana last week.

Rice +14 -108 (1 unit)

Rice ML +520 (0.5 units)

South Florida @ Florida (Saturday, 3:30 PM Central)

South Florida was a pleasant surprise in Week 1, beating Boise State 34-7. The Bulls finally have a healthy Byrum Brown at QB- he was excellent in 2023 and then injured for most of the 2024 campaign. We didn’t really learn anything about Florida in week 1 as they played FCS Long Island, but I like continuing to bet on a USF team that has an exciting QB and one of the most talented rosters in the G5.

South Florida +18.5 -108 (1 unit)

South Florida ML +650 (0.5 units)

Memphis @ Georgia State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Georgia State is really bad. Ole Miss put up an obscene 695 yards of offense on the Panthers last week, dicing them up both on the ground and through the air. The vibes have been weird at GSU for a while- HC Dell McGee took over at an awkward juncture after old coach Shawn Elliot left the program in February 2024 and he’s never gotten his feet under him. Memphis has a powerful offense led by transfer QB Brendon Lewis and I think they’ll roll here.

Memphis -14 -108 (1 unit)

Central Michigan @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)

I’ve been a buyer of Central Michigan for a while- I have multiple preseason bets on them. The Chippewas delivered big time last week by knocking off San Jose State as a two touchdown underdog. Like Rice, they run a funky offense- HC Matt Drinkall was previously Army’s OC. Pitt, meanwhile, is often a slow starter and is not a powerful offense that is going to run up the score. I like CMU and the points here.

Central Michigan +21.5 -108 (1 unit)

New Futures Bets

TCU to make the Playoff +500 (1 unit)

Everyone is laughing about how bad North Carolina got beaten on Monday night. No one is talking about how good TCU looked in that game. There’s a reason that SEC teams were trying to pry QB Josh Hoover from TCU in the portal- he delivered a masterful performance against UNC. I already liked TCU (I got them to make the playoff +920 in June) and am doubling down here. They moved into the top 20 of my model after demolishing UNC and might really have something going with Hoover.

Florida State to make the Playoff +470 (1 unit)

This is an interesting bet. Florida State is hovering around the 25-35 range in most computer models after beating Alabama. For most teams, that’s pretty consistent with +470 odds to make the playoff. However, this is a bet on their upside case. I think there are some cases (not likely, but possible) where FSU is legitimately a top 10 team in the country. They have a lot of raw talent on the roster, and with such a transfer-heavy roster, they might be able to flush last year’s 2-10 disaster out of their system extra fast. Other teams in the 25-35 range of the computers don’t have the high end talent FSU does, so I’m making a bet on their upside tail.

Results to Root For

Here are some games to keep an eye on this week with implications for my futures bets:

Baylor @ SMU -2.5: We are long Baylor and short SMU, we want Baylor pretty badly here.

Ole Miss -10 @ Kentucky: We are short Ole Miss, they lost to Kentucky last year and a repeat would be amazing.

Tulane -10.5 @ South Alabama: Tulane was one of our success stories in week 1 and we’d like to see the momentum continue here.

Arizona State -6.5 @ Mississippi State: We’re pretty long Arizona State and that would take a decent hit if they lost this.

Michigan @ Oklahoma -5.5: We’re very long Oklahoma and this is one of the biggest games of their season.

UCLA -2.5 @ UNLV: We are very short UNLV and this is the highest leverage game on their schedule.

Stanford @ BYU -20.5. Our Stanford bets look very bad, to have any hope we need them to be competitive here.

College Football Futures Update- Week 1

A very high percentage of my total CFB bets are futures. As a result, my total exposure on a week-by-week basis can be hard to understand. This season, I’ll publish a brief guide each week as to what games I have the most exposure as well as updates on how my futures are doing.

Texas at Ohio State (-1.5)

I have a ton of short exposure on Texas. Texas to miss playoff, Texas under 9.5 wins, etc. etc. While they don’t have to lose to Ohio State for those bets to cash, it certainly would go a very long way to helping. I also have Ohio State to go 12-0 at +400, which is obviously dead if they lose this game.

LSU at Clemson (-2.5)

I got very long Clemson this offseason, and thankfully I got a good price. I got Clemson over 9.5 wins at -105, and it was -160 a few months later. I also bet on Clemson to win the national title and Clemson to win the ACC. I have 2 units on LSU to miss the playoff as well.

Other results to root for:

Boise State (-6.5) at South Florida

TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina

Syracuse (+14) vs. Tennessee

Baylor (+2) vs. Auburn

Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State

Colorado (+4) vs. Georgia Tech

College Football Picks Week 1 2025

The season got off to a bit of a sad start with Stanford losing at Hawai’i. I not only had Stanford +2.5, but also have Stanford over 3.5 wins as well. I am dismayed to see Stanford starting 5th year transfer QB Ben Gulbranson- I expected highly touted freshman Elijah Brown to win the starting job. Brown must be behind schedule in his development if a crappy veteran like Gulbranson can beat him out.

Long time readers of my blog will know that I often bet on big underdogs in the first week or two of the season. I have had lots of success with this strategy, even winning several of these ML picks outright over the years (2019 San Jose State as a +1200 dog comes to mind). I am sticking to my guns this year and have four underdogs I like this week.

Don’t forget that I also bet on Sam Houston in their week 1 game against UNLV. I posted this pick last week since Sam Houston and UNLV both played in week 0. This line has moved several points in my favor after UNLV’s awful week 0 performance.

Note that I bet some of these lines in the preseason. A few have moved in my direction and a few have moved against, but you might see slightly different lines.

Ball State @ Purdue (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Purdue was really, really bad last year. It’s not just that they went 1-11, they also were 3-9 ATS and scored 0 points in 3 separate games. They were the worst Big Ten team in at least 5 years, possibly 10. That led to HC Ryan Walters’ ouster, and Barry Odom is in from UNLV. Purdue will be better this year simply because it would be hard for a power conference team to be worse.

Ball State is also under new management this year- Mike Neu’s 9 year run came to a close, and they brought in Mike Uremovich from non-scholarship FCS Butler. I love the hire- MAC teams need to start looking further afield for coaches. There is a storied tradition of non-scholarship FCS coaches working out at the next level (e.g. Jim Harbaugh), and it’s an especially relevant skillset at a woebegone program like Ball State.

Both of these teams have 30+ new guys on the roster. Purdue was so, so bad last year that some improvement is likely, but they weren’t much better than Ball State last year. 16.5 seems like a rich spread against a plucky MAC team.

Ball State +16.5 -110 (2 units)

Ball State ML +520 (1 unit)

Rice @ Louisiana (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

Like Ball State, Rice also hired a non-scholarship FCS coach over the offseason in Scott Abell. I like this hire even more- Abell took over an awful program at Davidson and turned it into a winner with a very unique option offense. He brings said offense to Rice, and it will make them a very tough team to prep for.

My model also does not like Louisiana this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns started off 10-2 but lost their last two games by a combined 65-6. They got picked apart in the portal and are starting Walker Howard at QB, who could not even win the LSU backup job last year. They lack talent and I’m surprised they’re the consensus pick to win the SBC West.

Rice is one of my pet teams this year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Scott Abell era get off to a 1-0 start.

Rice +14.5 -110 (2 units)

Rice ML +470 (1 unit)

Colorado State @ Washington (Saturday, 10 PM Central)

Washington was a very strange team last year. I essentially forgot about the Huskies all year, as they were not good enough to be relevant but not bad enough to pay attention to. It was also their first year in the Big Ten, so their schedule made no sense.

Colorado State, meanwhile, finally broke through last year. They have more money than the rest of the MWC (as we saw when they poached Nevada’s coach a few years ago) and that is finally starting to show on the roster. They nearly made the conference title game and return multi-year starter Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at QB.

My model sees Washington as one of the least talented rosters in the Big Ten and that means they are too big a favorite against a solid G5 team like Colorado State.

Colorado State +18.5 -110 (1 unit)

Colorado State ML +720 (0.5 units)

Hawai’i @ Arizona (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)

I was very impressed with Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado last week. The 5’10” redshirt freshman played through an injury and executed Hawai’is trademark run n’ shoot offense well. The Rainbow Warriors picked up their biggest win in several years against Stanford.

They now travel to face an Arizona team that was a massive disappointment last year. Arizona was a sleeper playoff pick in the preseason and collapsed to 4-8. Tetairoa McMillan is now gone and QB Noah Fifita regressed massively from 2023 to 2024. I expect Arizona to be in the bottom tier of the Big 12.

I am confused as to why this line is so big. Arizona is one of the worst teams in a power conference, and we just saw what Hawai’i can do against such a team.

Hawai’i -17.5 -112 (1 unit)

Hawai’i ML +575 (0.5 units)

LSU @ Clemson (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

If you’ve been following my picks this offseason, this won’t be a surprise. I’ve been buying Clemson at every opportunity, and the market has moved pretty far in my favor. For example, I got Clemson to win the ACC at +170 in May, and it is +105 now.

I got this line a little bit ago at 2.5 (it’s 3.5 now). I think Clemson is clearly more talented than LSU- Clemson is elite on both lines, and should control the game physically.

Clemson -2.5 -120 (1 unit)

I’m updating this post with one more bonus bet. With Boise State losing, the race for the G5 playoff spot is wide open. Certainly USF’s odds of making the playoff go up after beating Boise, but other teams’ odds to make the playoff go up as well. I already liked Tulane and they are my new favorite to make the playoff from the G5 after today’s developments.

Tulane to make the Playoff +750 (1 unit)

College Football Picks Week 0 2025

The offseason is finally coming to an end. Week 0 is a relatively new addition to the college football calendar, only coming into existence a few years ago. This year it delivers us only a handful of games, most notably a Kansas State/Iowa State clash that could go a long way towards deciding the Big 12. It also gives us one game I have quite a big opinion on.

Week 0

Stanford @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

If you’ve been following my website this offseason, you know how much I love Stanford this year. The Cardinal have been left for dead after HC Troy Taylor was fired amidst a scandal in the offseason. Their roster has been picked clean- most notably, future NFL DE David Bailey left for a 7 figure payday at Texas Tech. However, I think the market is overreacting here- their recent recruiting averages are still passable, and they have a good coach at the helm in Frank Reich.

I made a bunch of week 0 and week 1 bets back in May and I got Stanford at -2.5 in this game. The market clearly disagrees with me about the Cardinal- this line has moved all the way to Stanford +2.5. I got 2 units down at -2.5 and am going to double down at +2.5. While I expect to be betting on Stanford often this year, I’m also bearish on a Hawai’i team that is amongst the least talented in FBS.

Stanford -2.5 -110 (2 units)

Stanford +2.5 -112 (1 unit)

Week 1

I will post most of my week 1 picks this weekend. However, one of them involves a team that’s in action over week 0, so I figure it is best to post that now.

UNLV @ Sam Houston State (Friday 8/29, 8:30 PM Central)

UNLV and Sam Houston State had remarkably similar seasons last year. Both teams were pleasant surprises that won double digit games for the first time in their FBS history. Both teams contended for conference titles despite having no preseason expectations. Both teams lost their head coaches to bigger programs after these breakout seasons.

The market is (correctly) pricing in a ton of regression for Sam Houston this year. They had an experienced team last year, and KC Keeler took several of the good players and coaches with him to Temple. The market is not pricing in enough regression for UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels have little continuity from last year’s team (QB Hajj Malik-Williams graduated and star WR Ricky White was drafted by the Seahawks). They did have the money to bring in some exciting transfers, like QB Alex Orji from Michigan. However, G5 programs that sprout out of nowhere to have success don’t tend to sustain it across multiple coaches. I like Sam Houston quite a bit here.

Sam Houston State +13.5 -110 (3 units)

Sam Houston State ML +340 (1 unit)

2025 CFB Preseason Bets- Part 10

This is the last installment in my college football preseason bets series. Today I’ll cover a few bets that I’ve made since the last installment in early July.

Tulane to win the American +390 (1 unit)

Tulane was the best team in the American last year but lost a close one in the conference title game to Army. The Green Wave lost stud freshman QB Darian Mensah to Duke, but have a number of intriguing options to replace him including former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff. The Green Wave have a solid all-around roster that includes the best offensive line and best defensive line in the league. They’re quite a bit better than the rest of the conference, and while they are the favorites to win the league, they should be even bigger favorites.

LSU to win 5 or fewer games +1200 (1 unit)

DraftKings recently added a new section to their website with some alternate win totals, and the rest of the bets in this post will come from that section. 

Every year, there is one preseason top 10 team who massively disappoints. I think that LSU is the most likely candidate this year- I’m a bit surprised that they’re a consensus top 10 team in most preseason polls. They also have a brutal early schedule that features games against Clemson, Florida and Ole Miss before the end of September. If LSU stumbles out of the gate I could see a repeat of the 2024 Florida State situation where everything goes wrong. Brian Kelly’s seat is also getting warm, and if he gets fired after a bad start, the team will stop caring.

North Carolina to win 3 or fewer games +1600 (0.5 units)

A lot of people have asked me for my opinion on North Carolina prior to Bill Belichick’s debut season in Chapel Hill. The boring answer is that I don’t really have one- the average simulation shows his squad at 6.6 wins, pretty in line with the consensus.

I do, however, want to buy some volatility on UNC. Most teams that I project for 6.6 wins will comfortably finish with 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 wins. However, UNC is not a typical team- there is some chance that this experiment goes really well, and some chance it goes really poorly. The call wing on UNC is pretty juiced from heavy retail interest, but I think that the put wing is attractive.

Texas to win 6 or fewer games +2000 (0.5 units)

I’m selling Texas at every opportunity this year. Texas is at the top of the preseason AP poll, but in the back half of the top 10 in my model.

I think that this is one of my favorite ways to gain some short exposure to the Longhorns. Texas has a brutal schedule- a full SEC slate and a trip to Ohio State in non-conference play. They also have absolutely zero QB depth behind Arch Manning- if he goes down with an injury, things can fall apart in a hurry.

Ole Miss to win 5 or fewer games +1100 (0.5 units)

2024 was Ole Miss’ window to compete for the SEC. Nearly everyone, most notably Jaxson Dart, is gone from last year’s team. They also were a year ahead on the portal, and now everyone else has caught up and their edge there is gone.

Ole Miss has once again gone portal-heavy this year, which is a pretty high variance strategy. Lane Kiffin does have a great track record in the portal, but with a portal-heavy roster, if things go south, they can go really far south. The schedule is brutal and I think a total crash-out is not impossible.

2025 CFB Look-Ahead Lines

This is likely going to be my last post in my preseason bets series. I’ve had a busy preseason, already betting over 100 units across my various picks. This is all part of my plan for the season though- my main takeaway from the last few years of betting is that I have more edge betting futures, and the most edge betting exotic futures. The preseason is the best time to make those bets, and I anticipate betting less in-season than I have in the past.

Today I’ll look at some game lines for later in the season. These sorts of bets (often called “look-ahead lines”) were great for me last year. I got Florida +11.5 against Florida State in the preseason last year, which might have been my favorite bet of the whole year.

Week 4: Washington @ Washington State

Washington was a pretty big disappointment in 2024. No one expected a repeat of 2023’s squad that lost the national title game, but the Huskies were in many people’s preseason top 25 and went 6-7. I remain bearish on Washington this year- most of Kalen DeBoer’s players have cycled out of the program, and the recruiting has been slightly below average for the Big Ten.

Washington State is going through a gut rebuild with their HC, QB and OC all off to power programs. However, I think they have the right man for the job in former South Dakota State HC Jimmy Rogers. Rogers took over the SDSU dynasty built by his predecessor and only improved it, going 27-3 in two years. He’s also brought nearly twenty players with him from South Dakota State. Thus, while Wazzu lost a ton, they’re importing a cohesive core and aren’t starting from zero.

I like this a good bit, I bet one unit at +10.5 a few weeks ago and added another when it got to +11.5.

Washington State +10.5 -110 (1 unit)

Washington State +11.5 -110 (1 unit)

Week 5: Oregon @ Penn State

The Big Ten has a clear top three in Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. This is one of two matchups between that big three, as Oregon and Ohio State don’t play this year.

It’s no secret that I’m low on Oregon this year- I bet big on Oregon to miss the playoff. I’m not sold on Dante Moore at QB. Penn State, on the other hand, is going to be quite solid this year. I’m still not buying the Nittany Lions as a top-tier national title contender, but they have the highest floor of any team in the sport. It would shock me if they’re not a top 10 team this year, they are simply too experienced and have an excellent backfield.

Penn State -4 -110 (1 unit)

Week 7: Indiana @ Oregon

After Oregon travels to Happy Valley, they host Indiana. I once again love Indiana’s upside this year- I think that they have a decent shot at a return appearance to the playoff. Oregon is far more talented than Indiana and should be a decent favorite here, but two touchdowns is an enormous spread for this matchup.

Indiana +14 -110 (2 units)

Week 7: Oklahoma vs. Texas

I absolutely love Oklahoma this year. The Sooners have been the victim of awful injury luck and showed their potential last year in a dominating win over Alabama. This is still one of the most talented teams in the country and they imported a great offense in John Mateer and his OC Ben Arbuckle. I’m buying Oklahoma at every opportunity in the preseason.

Oklahoma +11.5 -110 (2 units)

Week 8: SMU @ Clemson

It’s a common trope in college football that plucky mid-majors can’t hang with the big boys in the trenches. This matchup is going to be the ultimate showcase of that. SMU is in the ACC now, but a lot of their roster was still assembled when they were in the American. Clemson, on the other hand, might have the best offensive line and best defensive line in the country. Clemson is going to bully SMU in the trenches and roll in this one.

Clemson -11.5 -110 (2 units)

Week 14: Georgia Tech vs. Georgia

Georgia Tech has pulled a crazy number of upsets in the last few years- I believe the Yellow Jackets have won 5 games as a double digit underdog in the last two years. HC Brent Key is an offensive line coach by trade and that shows with the physical nature of this squad. Add in an experienced QB in Haynes King, and I’m bullish on Georgia Tech this year. I also am skeptical of UGA’s offense under Gunner Stockton and that makes this an easy play.

Georgia Tech +12.5 -110 (1 unit)

Week 14: Texas A&M @ Texas

Oklahoma and Texas A&M are the two main teams I’m buying in the SEC this preseason. I’m also a huge seller of Texas. That makes this an ideal pick for me. Texas A&M is one of the ten most talented teams in the country and has an exciting young QB in Marcel Reed. Texas will improve at QB with Arch but lost an obscene amount of talent to the draft elsewhere on the roster. I think A&M has a good shot at their first win over the Longhorns in a generation.

Texas A&M +10.5 -110 (2 units)

2025 CFB Preseason Alt Win Total Bets- Part 2

Intro

In case you missed it, in my last post I explained why I really like bettling alternative win totals in college football. I also covered a handful of alt win total picks that I have for 2025. Today I’ll go through the rest of those picks.

Big Ten

Ohio State to go undefeated +400 (2 units)

2024 Ohio State is not going to get talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time because they lost two games. However, by my numbers, they were a significantly above average national champion, as we saw when they easily won (and covered!) four straight games against good teams to win the title. Their quarterfinal win over Oregon is one of the more impressive wins I’ve seen from any team in years.

I really like this bet at 4/1 odds. The Buckeyes will probably take a step back and go 10-2 or 11-1. However, their upside is higher than any team in the country, and there’s some chance they’re just as good as last year. They have the best player in the country on each side of the ball in WR Jeremiah Smith and S Caleb Downs. If QB Julian Sayin’s production can match his recruiting pedigree, this will be the best team in the country. 

ACC

Stanford to win 6+ games +500 (2 units)

Stanford lost HC Troy Taylor unexpectedly late in the coaching cycle. I explained in a previous post why, despite this, I’m bullish on Stanford this year. They have decent talent, an excellent interim coach, and a really weak ACC schedule. The best comparison I have for Stanford is 2023 Northwestern, who went 7-5 (against a win total of 3.5) after HC Pat Fitzgerald was fired for a hazing scandal over the summer. The cupboard is not bare in Palo Alto and I want to get some more exposure on the Cardinal.

Clemson to go undefeated +500 (1 unit)

I already bet Clemson to win the ACC and Clemson to win the national title, and I’m tripling down here with this bet. The Tigers have their most talented team since 2020. Cade Klubnik took a huge leap last year and Dabo finally got over himself and started using the portal a bit. For the first time in years, Clemson’s ceiling is that of the best team in the country, and with their ACC schedule, they stand a decent chance of making it to the playoff undefeated.

Big 12

Baylor to win 10+ games +400 (2 units)

Baylor was the best team in 2024 that no one talked about. They started 2-4 and everyone assumed that HC Dave Aranda was on his way out. Aranda made a last-ditch effort to save his job by switching from Toledo transfer QB DeQuan Finn to promising youngster Sawyer Robertson and it paid off handsomely. Baylor went 6-0 down the stretch with Robertson and he is back for 2025.

The key to placing alternative win totals bets is identifying which teams have upside. There’s a chance that Robertson is a top 10 QB in the sport, and Baylor has talent elsewhere on their offense. I think there’s a good chance that the Bears will break out this year.

Arizona State to win 10+ games +210 (1 unit)

Arizona State to go undefeated +1500 (0.5 units)

Much like Baylor, Arizona State is a team with a promising young quarterback in Sam Leavitt. Unlike Baylor, they won double digit games last year, which is why this line is +210 as opposed to +400. However, I really like the Sun Devils’ upside this year- Leavitt also has a potential first round WR in Jordyn Tyson. It’s notoriously difficult to sustain success in the Big 12, but if any team can do it, I’ll bet on an Arizona State team that was quite young when they broke out in 2024.

Colorado to win 10+ games +900 (0.5 units)

I already bet Colorado to make the playoff at 16/1 odds- I really like their upside with QB Kaidon Salter transferring in from Liberty. Much like the other teams in this section, I’m taking a stab at a team with an exciting quarterback who has a decent upside case in 2025.

American

UTSA to win 10+ games +460 (2 units)

UTSA took a bit of a step back in 2024 after QB Frank Harris, the best player in program history, graduated. I anticipate that being just a one year step back, as HC Jeff Traylor has built an impressive foundation in San Antonio. The Roadrunners are recruiting at a top 5 level in the G5, and have done an excellent job of scooping up guys in the portal who didn’t fit at power schools. By my metric, this is one of the most talented teams in the G5 and they’re a dark horse playoff contender this year.

MAC

Central Michigan to win 6+ games +125 (2 units)

Central Michigan to win 10+ games +4500 (0.25 units)

Central Michigan is historically one of the best teams in the MAC. However, they’ve fallen on hard times recently, with three losing seasons in a row under HC Jim McElwain. McElwain looked checked out by the end of his tenure and “retired” (he was likely going to be fired) at the end of the season.

Central Michigan made a really excellent hire in Army OC Matt Drinkall. Army has had some amazing and unique offensive schemes the last few years. I also really appreciate it when MAC teams try something new- so many MAC schools have hired boring retread coaches, and this is an inspired pick of a unique young coach.

This roster is much better than the recent records indicate- CMU has always recruited near the top of the MAC. I am bullish on Drinkall’s ability to get things turned around quickly.

Conference USA

UTEP to win 10+ games +2000 (0.5 units)

UTEP has been playing football for a hundred years and has never won 10 games. There may not be a more structurally hopeless program in D1 than the Miners. If history is any indication, UTEP should once again suck this year.

There is one reason to think things could be different- QB Malachi Nelson. Nelson was a 5 star recruit and the #13 overall player in the country in the class of 2023. However, he failed to win the starting job at USC in 2023 and again at Boise State in 2024, and has only 20 career passing attempts to his name.

Nelson has failed to live up to his potential so far, but given his recruiting pedigree, the upside is clear. Given that he wound up at UTEP, he’s probably not any good, but if he plays like the 5 star he once was, he’ll be the best player in the conference by far. I like the Miners’ upside a lot this year.

Delaware to win 10+ games +2100 (0.5 units)

Delaware is making their FBS debut this year. Projecting teams in their first year in FBS is notoriously difficult. Teams often redshirt lots of players the year before they move up to FBS as they are ineligible for the FCS playoffs in the year prior to transition.

Even with a limited roster, Delaware went 9-2 in the CAA last year. There’s some history of teams winning big immediately upon moving up to FBS- Sam Houston State, James Madison and Appalachian State all won 8+ games in their first year in FBS. Delaware plays in an awful CUSA, and I think this team has some real upside.

2025 CFB Preseason Alt Win Total Bets- Part 1

Methodology

There’s a fun addition to the college football betting scene this year- alternative win totals. Regular win total bets (e.g. Oklahoma over 6.5 wins) are commonplace, but in a new twist for 2025, I’ve seen alternative win total bets listed for each FBS team. These include odds to win 6+ games, odds to win 10+ games and odds to go undefeated.

I already have several posts going through my win total bets. Why do I need to make alt win total bets as well? The main reason is that I think the books fundamentally misprice these bets. To illustrate this, I’ll compare the projections that my model produces with the projections from another popular college football model (KFord). No shade against Kelley Ford, I love his content and he makes some amazing graphics, I just think that he has not modeled this particular aspect of things well and sportsbooks make a similar mistake.

Let’s look at my projections for Duke this year and compare it to KFord. I’ve picked Duke as an example because our projection for Duke is pretty much exactly the same (6.99 vs. 6.95 wins, respectively).

We both think that the most likely scenario is that Duke goes 7-5. However, I give them a 16% chance of going 10-2 or better, and he gives them a 4% chance. I give them a 9% chance of going 3-9 or worse, and he gives them a 1% chance. I am thus assuming a lot more volatility in the distribution of Duke’s outcomes than he is. In fact, I assume more volatility in the distribution of all 136 FBS teams, I just chose to use Duke as an example.

The data shows that my approach matches reality better. My statistical rationale into how I measure “better” is complicated and I won’t get into it here. Instead, let’s look at what happened last season. Here are some power conference teams whose actual record differed greatly from their projected win total in the preseason. 

Florida State (9.5 win total, 2 wins)

Utah (9.5 win total, 5 wins)

Arizona (8 win total, 4 wins)

Duke (6 win total, 9 wins)

Illinois (5.5 win total, 9 wins)

South Carolina (5.5 win total, 9 wins)

Indiana (5 win total, 11 wins)

BYU (4.5 win total, 10 wins)

Arizona State (4.5 win total, 10 wins)

This shows the importance of having wider confidence intervals in the preseason.

I use this not as an exercise to pick on KFord, but rather to show that I think lots of people in the college football world (the betting markets included) often underestimate how likely far-flung outcomes are. 

The moral of the story- college football is a notoriously unpredictable sport, and we shouldn’t be surprised when weird stuff happens!

SEC

Oklahoma to win 10+ games +600 (1 unit)

This bet should come as no surprise after I bet on Oklahoma over 6.5 wins and Oklahoma to make the playoff +500. I love the Sooners’ upside this year- they had awful injury luck last year and are extremely talented. They combine Brent Venables’ signature defense with a revamped offense led by dual-threat transfer QB John Mateer. I’m all-in on the Sooners this year.

Alabama to go undefeated +850 (1 unit)

When placing these sorts of bets, it’s important to identify teams with high ceilings and low floors. Alabama is a perfect case. Alabama has arguably the most talented roster in the country with 5-stars everywhere you look, and a healthy dose of skepticism surrounding second year coach Kalen DeBoer. 

Would it surprise me if they go 12-0 and are the best team in the country? Nope. Would it surprise me if they go 8-4 and DeBoer gets chased out of Tuscaloosa by an angry mob? Also nope. This is the most unpredictable good team in the country, and I really like the value here.

Big Ten

Indiana to win 10+ games +340 (1 unit)

I’m both bullish on Indiana’s chances this year, and think that there is a lot of uncertainty in how good they can be. That makes an alt win total on the Hoosiers a great bet. We don’t have a ton of data points on how these heavily-portaled surprise teams behave in year two. Maybe Indiana has built a foundation and can win double digit games again against a soft schedule. Maybe they’ll go crashing back down to earth. Also, the ceiling is pretty high on transfer QB Fernando Mendoza- he’s starting to pop up in the first rounds of mock drafts. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Indiana make a return trip to the playoff.

Minnesota to win 10+ games +800 (1 unit)

If Indiana isn’t this year’s Big Ten surprise team, I like Minnesota’s chances to take that spot. I covered why I like the Gophers in my Big Ten preseason picks article, and I’m just adding a bit of exposure on their upside tail with this bet.

2025 College Football Preseason Playoff Bets- Part 2

In my last post, I went through my bets on teams to make or miss the playoff from the SEC and Big Ten. I’ll cover all the other conferences today, as well as add in a few other preseason bets.

Independents

Notre Dame to make the playoff -125 (2 units)

The Irish start 2025 third in my ratings, behind only Ohio State and Alabama. They combine an extremely talented roster with the best running back in the country (Jeremiyah Love) and a very promising young QB (CJ Carr). The Irish were extremely injured down the stretch last year (a product of a 16 game schedule!) and can only really be healthier this year. That’s a scary prospect considering that they were the second best team in the country in 2024.

I will admit that this is a bit of a stale line- I see this at -190 now. BetRivers has some weird lines sometimes and I picked them off on this one before they moved their lines to match everyone else. The Irish are significantly more likely than not to make a return trip to the playoff this year.

Big 12

Arizona State to make the playoff +470 (2 units)

Arizona State went 10-2 last year and was around the 15th best team in the country. They have a future NFL WR in Jordyn Tyson and a possible NFL QB in Sam Leavitt. Sure, they lost RB Cam Skattebo to the draft, but running back production is a lot easier to replace than other positions.

The Big 12 is the hardest league to predict in the country, but I feel pretty decent about Arizona State’s chances this season. It’s also interesting to me that I can get this at +470 when Arizona State is +600 to win the Big 12. I think there's a good chance that the Big 12 gets two teams into the playoff this year, making this an even better bet.

TCU to make the playoff +920 (1 unit)

No one noticed, but TCU was really good in the second half of 2024. The Horned Frogs fell out of Big 12 contention after a 3-3 start but went 6-1 down the stretch. Young QB Josh Hoover went through his growing pains early but looked excellent in the second half of the season. Tennessee aggressively pursued Hoover after Nico Iamaleava transferred out, but TCU was able to hold on to him.

In the grab bag that is the Big 12, I like betting on teams with exciting quarterbacks. TCU certainly fits the bill, and we saw in 2022 that this program has a lot of upside when everything clicks. This is a nice longshot bet.

Colorado to make the playoff +1600 (0.5 units)

Colorado? Have I gone crazy? Did I forget that Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are in the NFL now?

Hear me out on this one. I was looking for some longshots to bet on to make the playoff, and the key ingredient of these longshot bets is upside. Colorado brought in an exciting transfer QB in former Liberty QB Kaidon Salter. Salter is a fantastic athlete who only ended up at Liberty after he was dismissed from Tennessee for marijuana possession. 

I think that Deion Sanders did a fantastic job of coaching up Shedeur and I am intrigued by the possibility of him working with a dynamic athlete in Salter. Colorado could flame out and go 4-8, but I think an exciting run to the Big 12 title is a possibility.

Mountain West

Boise State to make the playoff +285 (2 units)

Boise State was the best team in the G5 last year, and it wasn’t close. Obviously, a lot of this was thanks to a certain Mr. Jeanty who is going to be playing on Sundays this year. A lot has been made about how Boise State will replace him. I think that this misses two key points- (i) the rest of this team was pretty dang good last year, (ii) running back production is easier to replace than other positions, even at the elite level.

Maddux Madsen is back at QB and the Broncos fended off several power conference teams who were interested in him in the portal. It’s not a lock that the Broncos make it back to the playoff, but at +285, it doesn’t have to be. They are so much more talented than every other team in the G5 and that makes this a clear bet for me.

Other Bets

I have two other win total bets that I’ve made since my last post on the subject a few weeks ago that I’ve added below.

Stanford over 3.5 wins +140 (4 units)

Stanford is in a weird spot. HC Troy Taylor was fired in the spring after an HR investigation into his conduct. His firing appears to be some combination of the results of that investigation, as well as lackluster results on the field. 

Stanford is the one program in the country where the GM is clearly above the head coach. The good news is that said GM is Andrew Luck, one of the most respected people in football. He’s brought in his former Colts HC in Frank Reich to run the ship this year. Reich is a great coach, and the Cardinal couldn’t do much better for a one year interim stop gap.

My model really likes Stanford this year, but I was waiting to see how much talent they lost in the spring portal window before placing this bet. They certainly lost a lot, including star EDGE David Bailey, but that’s reflected in the fact that the win total is only 3.5.

My model loved Northwestern the year that Pat Fitzgerald got fired and I regretted not listening to it (the Wildcats went 8-5 with a preseason win total of 3.5). I get similar vibes from Stanford this year- they have a great coach and a great talent evaluator. There are enough bad teams in the ACC that they can get to 4 wins.

BYU under 7.5 wins +125 (1 unit)

2024 BYU was one of the luckiest teams in recent memory. They got a very questionable call to beat Utah and scraped by an awful Oklahoma State team at home. Despite going 11-2, they finished the year outside the top 25 in my ratings. BYU’s true talent level was around an 8-4 or 7-5 team last year. BYU returns a below average amount of production from that team.

A lot BYU’s success last year was due to QB Jake Retzlaff. His status for the season is now in question after allegations he sexually assaulted a woman surfaced. My model already disliked BYU even before this, but if they are without Retzlaff, I am not sure this is a bowl team.

2025 College Football Preseason Playoff Bets- Part 1

Last year was the first year of the 12 team playoff, and I left the year convinced that there was a lot of opportunity in betting on teams to make or miss the playoff. I spent a lot of time this offseason fleshing out a model to predict the probability each team makes the playoff. I wrote about my methodology in considerable detail here, if you’re interested. Today I’ll take a look at some of my favorite bets that I made informed by this model. Note that I have enough picks that I’ll be dividing this post into two parts, the second part will come in a few days.

SEC

Texas to miss the Playoff +250 (4 units)

If you read my SEC win totals picks, you’ll know that I’m bearish on Texas this year. The short version of the story is that while they’ll improve at QB with Arch under center, they lost a ton of talent to the draft and they’ll be worse at nearly every other position.

I’m trying to get as much short exposure to Texas as I can. I think this might be a better bet than under 9.5 wins +160 is. I think that a 9-3 Texas team misses the playoff most of the time- the Longhorns draw 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the SEC, so they’ll be pretty light on quality wins if they have three losses. I expect this year to be a major step backwards for the ‘Horns.

Ole Miss to miss the Playoff -176 (3 units)

2024 was Ole Miss’s window. The Rebels were a year ahead of everyone else in terms of the importance of the portal, and it showed last year as they had their most talented team in 50 years. Loyal readers will recall that I bet Ole Miss under 9.5 wins and Ole Miss to miss the playoff last year, and was very happy when they fell apart against Florida in November.

This year’s Ole Miss team is much, much worse than last year’s. 4 Rebels went in the first two rounds of the draft, including QB Jaxson Dart and stud DT Walter Nolen. Worse, everyone is using the portal now, so Coach Kiffin is not cleaning up there to the degree he was a few years ago. New QB Austin Simmons has only 32 career pass attempts to his name, and figures to be a bottom half quarterback in the SEC. I think that the Rebels will come nowhere near the playoff this year.

Georgia to miss the Playoff +198 (3 units)

Georgia did not look right last year. It’s a testament to how strong a foundation Kirby Smart has built that I can say that in a year that they won the SEC, but I think most ‘Dawgs fans would agree. Their defense was worse than its usual standard, and their offense badly missed Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers. If you flip OT wins against Georgia Tech and Texas to losses, they would’ve missed the playoff.

Gunner Stockton is going to be behind center this year for UGA, and I am not sold on him based on what we saw at the end of last year. They also have a difficult schedule that features 7 games that I expect to have a single digit spread. I think that the rest of the SEC might have finally caught up to Georgia.

Texas A&M to make the Playoff +245 (2 units)

Well, if I’m betting on all of these SEC teams to miss the playoff, I have to bet on some to make it, right? Look no further than the Aggies. Mike Elko put together a solid first year in College Station and seems to have found his QB of the future in Marcel Reed. My model loves his dual-threat ability and I expect him to be one of the better QBs in the SEC in 2025. 

In even better news, the Aggies are super experienced around Reed. They have seniors up and down both lines, and I loved the pickup of former NC State WR KC Concepcion in the portal. When you add in several years of excellent recruiting classes, I rank this as the fifth most talented roster in the country. I’ll gladly take the fifth most talented roster in the country with a promising QB at +245 to make the playoff.

Oklahoma to make the Playoff +500 (2 units)

This should come as no surprise given that I bet Oklahoma over 6.5 wins a few weeks ago. The Sooners had awful injury luck last year, especially in their receiving core. By November, their top four wide receivers were all hurt. We saw flashes of their talent last year, like when they blew out Alabama in November, but they were never healthy enough to put it all together.

The Sooners also upgraded significantly at QB, bringing in John Mateer from Washington State along with his OC, Ben Arbuckle. This is one of the top ten most talented rosters in the country and I think that makes +500 a pretty attractive price.

LSU to miss the Playoff -162 (2 units)

If you read my post on the expected composition of this year's playoff, you’d know that I expect it to be very hard for any team to get into the field at 9-3. If I was running an SEC athletic department, I would be loath to schedule tough games out of conference knowing this. I project LSU to be a significant underdog at Clemson in week 1, and that makes their path to the playoff much harder.

Even outside of that, I just don’t think LSU is in the elite tier of the SEC this year. They don’t have a Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr. type of receiver this year. They are also taking a huge step back on the offensive line after three of last year’s five starters got drafted, including Will Campbell at #4 overall. This looks like an 8-4 type year in Baton Rouge which will not have the Tigers in playoff contention.

Tennessee to miss the Playoff -290 (2 units)

I am curious to see what this line would’ve been with Nico Iamaleava still in Knoxville. Alas, there were no odds to make/miss the playoff listed before the spring portal window closed. I was a seller of Tennessee even with Nico and I certainly am with Joey Aguilar. 

The Vols got extremely lucky to go 10-2 and make the field last year. They beat Florida in overtime in one of the more baffling games of recent memory. They lost to a bad Arkansas team. They got wiped off the field by both Georgia and Ohio State. Tennessee was not that good last year, and now they only have 1 surefire NFL player on the roster. They are going to take a major step back in 2025.

Big Ten

Oregon to miss the playoff +220 (4 units)

Oregon started the season 13-0 last year before getting blown out by Ohio State in a Rose Bowl rematch. I think the Ducks were around the fifth best team in the country last year- worse than their 13-0 start would indicate, but better than their disastrous playoff showing would indicate.

I see no reason that 2025 Oregon will be better than 2024 Oregon. QB Dante Moore is a clear downgrade from Dillon Gabriel- he was disappointing in his 2023 true freshman campaign at UCLA. He has had a year to learn the system, but he will not bring the veteran presence that Gabrel had. Star WR Evan Stewart looks to be out for the year. Oregon is also the most portal-heavy of any of the teams that will be in the preseason AP top 10, which my model frowns upon.

It’s worth noting that Oregon’s schedule is extremely soft this year. I think it’s so easy that it works against them. Their only games against preseason top 25 teams are a trip to Penn State and a home game against Indiana. A 10-2 Oregon team is thus likely to be on the outside looking in of the playoff- the committee is not going to look kindly on a team whose best wins are against the likes of Iowa and Minnesota.

Indiana to make the playoff +630 (1 unit)

As loyal readers of my blog will remember, I have a great track record on betting on Indiana to make the playoff. I’m back at it this year. The Hoosiers scored an absolute coup in the portal by landing former Cal QB Fernando Mendoza. I really like their approach to the portal- they brought in a few key guys to supplement an otherwise healthy roster, as opposed to trying to build a whole roster out of the portal.

Mendoza joins an otherwise healthy roster. Indiana still has a fair number of the guys that Curt Cignetti brought over from James Madison, and has three sure-fire NFL players on the roster. It’s not often you can say that about Indiana!

I don’t think it’s likely Indiana is headed back to the playoff, but there are some exciting pieces here, as well as a great coach. +630 seems like a nice price, all things considered.

2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 4)

Intro

This is the last post in my preseason bets series for now. I’ve covered 7 FBS conferences so far, and today I’ll finish it off with the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC.

No sportsbook has listed odds to make/miss the playoff yet. Once these lines are listed, I’ll likely be back with another post with some picks on those lines.

Sun Belt

Troy over 5.5 wins -115 (2 units)

Troy to win the Sun Belt +1500 (1 unit)

First time HC Gerad Parker took over the Troy job last year, and the Trojans slipped from 11-3 to 4-8. While this looks like a pretty big disappointment on the surface, there were reasons for optimism. Troy got unlucky, going 0-3 in close games. Almost no one returned from the 2023 squad, and they were figuring things out at the beginning of the season. They got a lot better as the season went along, going 3-1 down the stretch with two wins over bowl teams.

Troy is a great bounce back candidate this year because (i) last year was not as bad as it looked, (ii) they have some stability and decent returning production numbers and (iii) they recruit better than most teams in the Sun Belt. They have a much stronger winning tradition than other teams in the league, and this shows in their roster which I rank fourth in the Sun Belt in talent. Parker should get them back to a bowl this year.

James Madison to win the Sun Belt +400 (2 units)

James Madison was the best team in the Sun Belt last year but only went 4-4 in conference play. Many of their losses were in ridiculous fashion- they dominated ULM but lost thanks to awful red zone luck, they lost to Marshall in 2OT, and so on. I was in attendance when they hung 70 on UNC in Chapel Hill, and that was more emblematic of their season- at their best, they looked like the best G5 team not named Boise State.

HC Bob Chesney is in his second year in Harrisonburg after previous HC Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. Cignetti took a lot of his guys with him to Bloomington, and Chesney did a great job navigating that. Chesney came from Holy Cross, and is reunited with his former Holy Cross QB in Matt Sluka (who you may recall from his opt out at UNLV last year). I really like the idea of a QB and coach reunited- that has been a winning formula in the G5 in recent years.

James Madison has the most talented roster in the Sun Belt and perhaps the best QB as well. They are the clear favorites to win the Sun Belt and should be better than +400 to win the league. I might add a fraction of a unit on them to make the playoff at 40/1 or so when those lines get listed later this summer- I really like their upside.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky under 7.5 wins -125 (3 units)

This bet pains me as a self-avowed WKU fan. However, all signs point down for the Hilltoppers in 2025. Last year’s team was OK, going 8-6 and losing the CUSA championship game. They were a bit worse than their record indicated, suffering a few blowout losses, most notably in the CUSA title game to Jacksonville State. The big problem is that absolutely no one is back from that team. WKU got destroyed in the portal, and is in the bottom five in FBS in returning production. Former WKU OC Zach Kittley got the FAU job and took QB Caden Veltkamp with him, along with several other key players.

HC Tyson Helton clearly saw the writing on the wall for this year’s squad as his name was linked to a million jobs last offseason. However, he wasn’t able to land any of them, and that means he’ll have to attend to this mess. His strategy has been to bring in portal QBs, and while he’s had success with this in the past, I don’t like any of his options this year. This team is going to be super inexperienced in an improving CUSA.

New Mexico State over 4.5 wins -150 (2 units)

You may recall in my previous post that I’m betting on New Mexico under 3.5 wins this year. On the other side of the state, I like their rivals in Las Cruces this year.

I called New Mexico one of the most woebegone programs in FBS in that article. The same thing certainly applies to New Mexico State. The difference here is that NMSU has two things UNM does not- some roster stability and a quarterback. NMSU brought in Montana QB Logan Fife, who was a good FCS QB on a playoff team.

Most importantly, New Mexico State plays a pillow-soft schedule this year. Half their schedule is against teams that are either FCS or in the bottom 10 of FBS. There might be some Texas high school teams that could go over 4.5 wins against this schedule.

MAC

Ohio to win the MAC +250 (1 unit)

The MAC has really fallen into irrelevance since COVID. There hasn’t been a MAC team challenging for the top of the G5 since PJ Fleck’s Western Michigan team nearly a decade ago.

Throughout the irrelevance, there are two teams in the MAC that have built rosters better than the rest of the league- Toledo and Ohio. Ohio finally broke through after years of near-misses and won the MAC last year. While they did lose HC Tim Albin to Charlotte, they were able to keep a decent amount of their roster together. All of the second tier teams in the MAC (Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Miami (OH)) were absolutely eviscerated in the portal. This leaves Ohio and Toledo as the serious contenders for the league title, and I like Ohio a bit better.

2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 3)

Intro

So far in this series I have taken a look at the Power Two conferences and also the ACC and Big 12. Today I’ll take a look at my favorite preseason bets in the Mountain West and American.

Mountain West

Boise State to win the Mountain West -125 (5 units)

Boise State is the only team in the country that is minus money to win their conference. This still understates their dominance over the rest of the league. They are once again the clear best team in the G5- I give them about a 40% chance of making a return trip to the playoff.

The big news in Boise is the departure of Ashton Jeanty. The good news is that almost everyone else of note is back. They were able to hold on to QB Maddux Madsen despite heavy interest from other teams in the portal. Whoever replaces Jeanty will be running behind the best offensive line in the G5.

There is no team in the Mountain West who is remotely close to challenging the Broncos. UNLV was good last year, but lost HC Barry Odom to Purdue, and returns very little of their roster. Fresno State and Utah State were the third and fourth best teams in the league, and they both return little and are expected to take steps back.

Boise State travels to Notre Dame in early October. They will be significant favorites in every other game this year and their most likely outcome is another 11-1 season and another playoff bid.

New Mexico under 3.5 wins +110 (5 units)

There are around a dozen jobs in FBS where sustained success is impossible. This is one of them. Last year, former UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall made his return to coaching at New Mexico and led the Lobos to a 5-7 season. They were upset by Hawai’i to end the season, and would’ve made their first bowl in eight years if they had won that game. It looked like a promising start to the Mendenhall era.

Bad news for Lobos fans- Mendenhall left for Utah State after one year. QB Devon Dampier left for Utah (a signing that I really love- he was one of my favorite QBs in the portal). It’s not just Dampier- this roster was picked over clean in the portal. This year’s New Mexico squad ranks in the bottom five in the country in both my returning production and roster talent metrics.

I like the hire of former Idaho HC Jason Eck in the long term, but this is as complete a rebuild as you will ever see. The cupboard is completely bare and he has to build from scratch at one of the most woebegone programs in FBS. Such is life at New Mexico.

UNLV under 8.5 wins -125 (5 units)

The thesis behind this bet is pretty similar to the New Mexico bet. UNLV is a program that is historically awful but had a great season last year. They are also replacing their head coach (Barry Odom went to Purdue) and their QB, who graduated.

Odom came to UNLV two years ago and put together the two best years in program history. He went 20-8 in two years at a school that had never won more than eight games in a season and took them within a game of the playoff last year.

UNLV is going to be a lot better than New Mexico- hence why this win total is 8.5 and not 3.5. They have an exciting QB room with Alex Orji and Anthony Colandrea. They have a proven coach in Dan Mullen. But the rest of this team raises serious alarm bells for me. The recruiting classes that make up the core of this roster rank outside the top 100. Their lines are going to be abysmal. 

Even in the NIL era, it takes several years to build a full roster. UNLV is not there yet, and I expect them to take a significant step back this year.

American

South Florida to win the American +1000 (1 unit)

South Florida has a winning tradition stretching back to their first days in FBS in the early 2000s. They finished ranked in 2016 and 2017. In 2018 they started 7-0 and were ranked in the AP Poll. From there, they went an amazing 8-43 in the next four and a half seasons.

Alex Golesh inherited this mess two years ago and has done a remarkable job of steadying the ship with back to back 7-6 seasons. I think this is the year they could truly break out. QB Byrum Brown was electric in 2023, but was injured for most of 2024 and clearly not 100% when he did take the field. He threw for 7.7 yards/attempt and ran for 800 yards in 2023 and now looks fully healthy. I expect him to be the best QB in the G5. 

According to my measures, South Florida is near the top of the conference in overall roster talent, behind only Tulane and Memphis. When you add in an electric QB, I think that there’s great value at this price.