College Football Futures Bets- Week 14 2025

I made another 5 units on my futures last week. My Oklahoma bets (Oklahoma to make playoff +550, Oklahoma 10+ wins +600) look quite good after they beat Missouri, and my bets on North Texas and Tulane continue to age well. I lost a bit in the MAC and CUSA last week, but still had a solid week.

This week is a big one for my existing bets, as I’ll get into in the rooting guide. I normally include my rooting guide for my futures in this post, but I’ve got enough futures bets this week that I’ll make a separate post for the rooting guide.

Notre Dame to miss the Playoff +790 (1 unit)

As I’ll detail in my playoff preview this week, the probability of a playoff logjam is increasing. The messiest scenario is where Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan and Notre Dame all win. I think that if that happens, Notre Dame will be on the outside looking in. The committee has also had some weird rhetoric surrounding Notre Dame and Miami- I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it wouldn’t shock me if Miami randomly leapfrogged Notre Dame after Thanksgiving. This is worth a flier.

James Madison to make the Playoff +760 (1 unit)

If they win the conference (which they likely will- they’re -700 to do so), James Madison has two shots at the playoff:

(1) Hope someone other than Tulane or North Texas wins the American (unlikely- Tulane or UNT would have to lose as a 20+ favorite this week)

(2) Have Duke win the ACC, which is not impossible given the way the tiebreakers work out

I don’t think this is particularly likely, but I think it should be +600 or so. The market is still underpricing the “Duke wins the ACC” scenario.

SMU to make the Playoff Quarterfinal +600 (1 unit)

SMU to make the Playoff Semifinal +2000 (0.5 units)

I don’t think people have caught up to how good SMU is. They’re not just backing their way into the ACC title game- they’re a consensus top 25 team in the computers, and top 15 in my computer. If they win the ACC, their most likely playoff matchup is at Ole Miss, where they’d only be a 5 or 6 point underdog. I like buying some wing calls on the Mustangs and exciting QB Kevin Jennings.

Kennesaw State to win CUSA +175 (1 unit)

Kennesaw State is having a dream season- it’s their first season as a non-transitional FBS member, and they’re 8-3 with a real shot at the conference title game. I like this bet mostly for tiebreaker reasons- the CUSA title game participants are likely to be determined by computer ratings. Kennesaw State will make the conference title game with a win this weekend, and their computer rating is good enough that they’re in pretty good shape even with a loss.

San Diego State to win the Mountain West +150 (1 unit)

San Diego State is the only team with fewer than 2 losses in Mountain West play. That means they’re in the conference title game with a win over New Mexico. If they lose, it’ll come down to their computer rating, but they’re in very good shape on that front. The Aztecs also are guaranteed to host the conference title game if they win this weekend, and they’d either host a Boise State team who is missing their starting QB or an overrated UNLV team.

Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +1600 (0.5 units)

I bet on this last week at +980 and am adding a bit here. The “overfill” scenario of the playoff is growing in likelihood, and that is bad news for Texas Tech. I think the Red Raiders are in if they lose the Big 12 title game, but I’m definitely not certain, especially if Michigan beats Ohio State. There’s some decent value here.

Texas to make the Playoff +4000 (0.5 units)

I’ve been a huge Texas hater all year, and it’s worked out great for me. Texas under 9.5 wins and Texas to miss the Playoff were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both have been spectacular. However, I do have to admit that there is some risk with them. If Texas beats Texas A&M this weekend, especially if they win big, and there is chaos elsewhere, there will be a lot of momentum to put them in the field (if you want to put your tinfoil hat on, ESPN will certainly want it). I think there’s maybe a 4% chance of that, and that makes this an attractive punt at 40/1.

College Football Picks- Week 14 2025

Last weekend was solid- I made 6 units on my futures and lost 2 units on my weekly bets. My bet on Fresno State was unfortunate- the Bulldogs were up 17-7 at halftime and in total control against Utah State before completely imploding down the stretch.

This is the last week of the regular season. In addition to the bets below, I also have some lookahead lines this week that I bet in the summer. I have two units on Texas A&M +10.5 against Texas, and one unit on Georgia Tech +12.5 against Georgia.

Futures*: +55.41 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Week 9: +0.84 units

Week 10: 0 units

Week 11: -4 units

Week 12: -1.13 units

Week 13: -2.05 units

Season Total: +61.49 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

SMU @ California (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

SMU has looked amazing the last few weeks. QB Kevin Jennings is a high ceiling, low floor player, and he’s really flashed his ceiling the last few weeks. He’s finally healthy after a nagging foot injury and dominated Louisville last week. The Mustangs are in to the top 15 of my ratings and should demolish Cal. I got this line at -10 this morning, and it moved a few points in my favor after Cal fired HC Justin Wilcox this afternoon.

SMU -10 -110 (1 unit)

Army @ UTSA (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

It’s been a weird season for Army. They beat Kansas State, but lost to FCS Tarleton State. They looked to be improving, but then lost to a bad Tulsa team last week. UTSA has one of the best running backs in the country in Robert Henry Jr. (who will be eligible to play another year of college football next year, despite turning 24 next month- gotta love these new rules). He’s been terrorizing opposing defenses all year and UTSA has better players and a great homefield advantage.

UTSA -6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Maryland @ Michigan State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

I don’t talk about it much on here, but I am a Michigan State fan. We’ve been having an awful season, but have looked a little better in the last few weeks since turning to former backup QB Alessio Milivojevic- we nearly beat Iowa on the road last week. Maryland, meanwhile, has been a dumpster fire for two months. True freshman QB Malik Washington looks lost and the Terps haven’t been competitive in a game in over a month. I think Michigan State finally gets a Big Ten win here.

Michigan State -3.5 -110 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 13 2025

Last week was another good one for my futures and I’m now up 50 units on the year. My Texas shorts, after coming close to cashing against Kentucky and Mississippi State, finally are coming home to roost after the loss to Georgia.

I only have a few new bets this week- we’re mostly just crossing our fingers and rooting on the teams we’ve been betting all season.

New Bets

Oregon to make the Playoff -250 (9 units)

9 units? Have I lost my mind? Fear not- I don’t actually think there’s 9 units of edge here. I do think this is a bit mispriced, and I bet Oregon to miss the playoff at +220 for 4 units back in June. I think this should be around -290, so I am taking the opportunity to close out of my position for only a small loss.

SMU to miss the Playoff -425 (8 units)

This is the same principle as the Oregon bet. I bet a unit on SMU to make the playoff at +1200 last week, and it has moved a ton in my favor- both because SMU won, but also because Duke lost to Virginia. The Mustangs are very likely to make the playoff if they win the ACC, but they don’t control their own destiny in the ACC and they still have to play a tough Louisville team. I think this should be around -700 or so.

James Madison to make the Playoff +170 (2 units)

This was supposed to be like the Oregon and SMU trades, but it has gone sideways. I made this bet before the playoff committee revealed their rankings on Sunday. In those rankings, Tulane was shockingly ranked while JMU wasn’t- sending James Madison to make the playoff tumbling to +440. It would’ve been nice if I had waited to close my bet.

Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +980 (1 unit)

As I’ll discuss in my playoff preview column this week, the odds that we’re headed to a significant playoff logjam ticked up a good bit last week. The conventional wisdom is that Texas Tech will make the playoff even if they lose the Big 12 title game. In a scenario where we have a bevy of 2 loss Big Ten and SEC teams, I’m not so sure.

Duke to win the ACC 100/1 (1 unit)

This is a classic bet of mine- a tiebreaker bet. Most people assumed Duke was dead in the ACC race after losing to Virginia. They’d be wrong. The dream of an 8-5 ACC champion lives on- and here’s what it requires. We need Duke to win out against UNC and Wake Forest, and have two of SMU/Georgia Tech/Virginia take a loss. Then we need an (admittedly crappy) Duke team to win the ACC title. It’s unlikely, but it shouldn’t be 100/1.

Rooting Guide

Missouri @ Oklahoma (-5.5):

If Oklahoma wins out, we’ll win 11 units. Unfortunately for us, this line has dropped significantly this week with the news that Missouri QB Beau Pribula is returning to action (only three weeks after being carted off the field in an air cast!).

Jacksonville State @ FIU (-1.5):

We’re down to 3 contenders in CUSA- Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky. We win 11, 3.4 and 0 units respectively if each of those teams wins the league. Jax State can clinch a spot in the title game with a win and a Kennesaw State loss.

Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (-2.5):

We’re long Duke, Virginia, Miami and SMU. Georgia Tech is in the way of all of those teams- a Yellow Jackets loss helps all of our ACC positions.

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (-8.5):

We’ll make 17 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff. That requires two more wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, and maybe a little bit of help too. This line has been dropping given Kentucky’s improved recent form.

Duke (-7) @ North Carolina:

My Duke to win the ACC bet at 100/1 is already marking quite well. It does require them to win these last two games, but that’s not trivial against an improving UNC team.

North Texas (-17.5) @ Rice:

Our single biggest exposure is on North Texas. We have a unit on the Mean Green to make the playoff at 30/1. They’re 3 wins away from the playoff- and while this is a big spread, Rice runs a strange offense and it’s a road game.

California (-3.5) @ Stanford

This is it for our Stanford bet. We have the Cardinal over 3.5 wins at +140- they have one game against this, but it’s against Notre Dame. This is their last realistic shot at a fourth win for us to cash our ticket.

Tulane (-9.5) @ Temple:

Even if North Texas doesn’t win the American, we’re still in a decent spot because we’re also long the next most likely team (Tulane). This is a very losable game for the Green Wave though, and a loss here eliminates them from the playoff.

BYU (-2.5) @ Cincinnati:

We want Cincinnati to win here- it will help us for two reasons. First, it lowers the chance of 2 Big 12 teams in the playoff (we have Big 12 under 1.5 playoff teams). It also helps Utah’s chances at the conference title, and we win 20 units if they win the league.

Washington State @ James Madison (-14):

We might have closed our James Madison to miss the playoff position, but we have other positions (SMU, East Carolina) that would benefit from a JMU loss.

Minnesota @ Northwestern (-3.5):

We need Minnesota to pick up one win in their final two games to cash our over 6.5 wins ticket on the Gophers.

Washington (-10.5) @ UCLA:

We have UCLA under 3.5 wins, and they have 3 wins to date. This is their best chance for a fourth win, as they play USC next weekend.

Other big favorites we’re rooting for include Utah (-17.5), Michigan (-14), Boise State (-17.5) and San Diego State (-12.5)

College Football Picks- Week 13 2025

It was another solid week for my futures as I marked in another 12 units last week. My Texas shorts from the preseason have finally come in- I cashed my Texas under 9.5 wins ticket and am very close to cashing my Texas to miss the playoff ticket. I also won on Oklahoma, Texas Tech, BYU and North Texas. The only thing big that went against me was South Florida losing.

My weekly picks lost a unit last week- LSU failed to cover -5.5 when they purposefully didn’t score a touchdown up 1. Oh well.

Futures*: +50.51 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Week 9: +0.84 units

Week 10: 0 units

Week 11: -4 units

Week 12: -1.13 units

Season Total: +58.64 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Utah State @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)

It’s pretty rare that we make it this far into a season with a line that I just truly don’t understand. This is one of them. Fresno State is a solid G5 team- they went on the road and killed Boise State. Utah State is not- they’re yet to beat a bowl team. Fresno State also has a much more talented roster. I think Utah State is getting credit for losing in 2OT to a UNLV team that is themselves overrated. I like the Bulldogs here.

Fresno State -2.5 -112 (2 units)

Hawai’i @ UNLV (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)

Remember when I said UNLV was overrated? I’m betting against them here. The Runnin’ Rebels are the most fraudulent 8-2 team in the country, with a bevy of close wins over bad teams. Hawai’i, meanwhile, has an exciting QB in Micah Alejado and a defined scheme under HC Timmy Chang. Give me the ‘Bows.

Hawai’i +3.5 -110 (1 unit)

Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

The fact that Illinois was in the AP top 10 back in September is a complete farce. The Illini has crazy close game luck last year, and rode that to a bunch of unnecessary preseason hype this year. They’re 7-3 but haven’t done anything of note other than beating USC. Wisconsin, meanwhile has turned a corner in the last few weeks. I was worried they had quit on HC Luke Fickell, but that wasn’t the case in an inspired win against Washington. Wisconsin’s roster is more talented top to bottom and that makes them appetizing as a decent home underdog here.

Wisconsin +9.5 -105 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 12 2025

I have to apologize in advance for being slow in writing up my futures bets this week. I bet all of these on Sunday morning and a lot of the lines have moved pretty aggressively in my favor since then. I’ll try to be more timely with the writeups going forward.

I also apologize for not posting a rooting guide this week. I’m in New Orleans for my bachelor party (and headed to Baton Rouge tomorrow for Arkansas/LSU). I just haven’t had the time to write up the full rooting guide. Teams we want to win this week, in rough order of importance:

Georgia, Jacksonville State, North Texas, South Florida, Oklahoma, TCU, Arizona, Texas Tech, Utah

James Madison to miss the Playoff -230 (4 units)

I think the James Madison hype has gone a little far over its skis. Let’s break down what they need to have happen to make the playoff:

-They need to win out, including the conference title game. They’re favorites in every remaining game but have to go to Coastal Carolina and likely play Southern Miss in the conference title game. Call it a 50% chance.

-They need either Duke (or perhaps SMU) to win the ACC to jump them. Or, they could have some chaos in the American- ECU winning the league would certainly do the trick, Tulane winning might. There’s around a 20% chance Duke wins the ACC, a 13% chance SMU does, and a 10% or so chance they get a favorable outcome in the American.

Add it all up, and I think -230 is the absolute best odds I could see being reasonable here. I think it should be -330 or so.

Vanderbilt to make the Playoff +380 (3 units)

As I detailed in my playoff preview post this week, Vanderbilt is in very good shape to make the playoff if they win out. They host Kentucky and go @ Tennessee. They’ll be underdogs in Knoxville, but only by a field goal or so. They’ll be a heavy favorite at home against Kentucky. I like this line quite a bit- Vanderbilt has a decent shot at their first playoff bid.

SMU to make the Playoff +1200 (1 unit)

This one has moved a ton in my favor (it’s +490 now) and I do apologize for not posting these earlier in the week, but I’ve been busy with work. SMU does not control their own destiny in the ACC, but if they win out, they’ll be in pretty good shape to make the conference title game. This line priced a strong chance that SMU would get left out of the field if they win the ACC in favor of James Madison, but I pretty strongly disagree with that. 

College Football Picks- Week 12 2025

Last week was my first losing week since September. My alt line on Coastal Carolina came close, but didn’t hit. I also marked out a few units on my futures- mainly on North Carolina beating Stanford. It’s not a big deal- I’m still up a lot on the season and the winning streak was bound to come to an end sometime.

Futures*: +38.18 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Week 9: +0.84 units

Week 10: 0 units

Week 11: -4 units

Season Total: +49.44 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Arkansas @ LSU (Saturday, 11:45 AM Central)

I will be in attendance in Baton Rouge for this game- my first ever trip to Death Valley. I think people have gotten too low on LSU. This is still a very talented roster, and they don’t have the quit risk that other teams with fired coaches do- interim HC Frank Wilson is a long-time member of the staff. Arkansas has the worst roster in the SEC and LSU should roll here.

LSU -5.5 -110 (1 unit)

Marshall @ Georgia State (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

I’m continuing to bet against Georgia State. They are really bad- they’re now a bottom 5 team in FBS in my model. HC Dell McGee stepped into a weird situation for the Panthers and it has gone from bad to worse this year. Marshall is a solid Sun Belt team and should roll here.

Marshall -6.5 -115 (1 unit)

Virginia Tech @ Florida State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I think that Florida State might be quitting on Mike Norvell. The Seminoles committed some ghastly turnovers in their loss to Clemson last week, and are now in danger of missing a bowl game yet again. Virginia Tech has been improved since firing Brent Pry, and FSU simply might not care anymore.

Virginia Tech ML +420 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 11 2025

I made 10 more units on my futures last week. My North Texas to make the playoff ticket at 30/1 continues to look quite good, as does South Florida to win the American. I also made a bit on my longs on Oklahoma and Duke last week.

New Bets

Miami to make the Playoff +330 (3 units)

I made this bet on Sunday, so I have to post about it- but it has aged poorly. I bet 4 units on Miami to miss the playoff at +230 a few weeks ago, and that looks great- my idea was to lock in some profit here on a line that I thought was a bit +EV. Unfortunately, the committee put Miami 18th in their initial rankings, and they now look unlikely to make the playoff even if they win out. I’ve locked in a profit, but I could’ve gotten a better price.

Rooting Guide

Stanford @ North Carolina (-7.5)

I’ve had this game circled on my calendar for my months. We win 5.6 units if Stanford wins 4 or more games- and they currently have 3 wins. We also win 8 units if North Carolina wins 3 or fewer games- and they also currently have 3 wins. Both teams have a tough remaining schedule and this could determine the outcome of both bets.

Oregon (-6.5) @ Iowa

We make 8.8 units if Oregon misses the playoff and 28 units if Iowa makes it. If Iowa pulls the upset here, it’ll put Oregon in serious playoff danger and put the Hawkeyes into the top 15 or so.

Tulane @ Memphis (-3.5)

This game is ongoing as I write. We win 11 units if Tulane wins the American and makes the playoff, and only 3 units if Memphis does. Perhaps more importantly, a Tulane win helps out South Florida and North Texas a lot from a tiebreaker perspective.

BYU @ Texas Tech (-11.5)

This line has grown over the course of the week, which is good news for us. We got very long Texas Tech a month ago and they’ll cement their position as Big 12 favorites with a win.

Jacksonville State @ UTEP (-1.5)

We win 11 units if Jacksonville State wins CUSA. They’re undefeated in conference play and move closer to making the conference title game with a win here.

SMU (-10.5) @ Boston College

We have SMU under 8.5 wins, and that will cash if they lose this game. It also would eliminate them from the ACC race, which would help our longs on Virginia, Duke and Louisville.

UNLV (-4.5) @ Colorado State

We have UNLV under 8.5 wins. They kept stringing together lucky wins to start the season, but are finally coming down to earth. A late season collapse would be great for us.

Southern Miss (-4.5) @ Arkansas State

I bet Arkansas State ML this week both because I think it’s good, and also to hedge our exposure here- Southern Miss essentially locks up the Sun Belt West with a win here. We’re flat exposure here.

Miami (OH) @ Ohio (-2.5)

This game was on Tuesday night, but we’re long Ohio and they’re now the MAC favorites after beating Miami (OH).

San Diego State (-6.5) @ Hawai’i

We got long San Diego State at the right time- they’re 4-0 since we bet on them to make the MWC title game. That will essentially be a lock if they win this game.

LSU @ Alabama (-10.5)

Our bet on Alabama to win the SEC requires them to keep winning. We also have LSU to miss the playoff- and that will fully be dead if they lose this game

Texas A&M (-7) @ Missouri

Our bet on Texas A&M to win the SEC will be on track with a win here.

Auburn @ Vanderbilt (-6.5):

We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff- they need a win here.

Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi State

We have 3 units on Georgia to miss the playoff at +198 from the preseason. We could use an upset here.

Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:

Indiana (-14.5) @ Penn State, Ohio State (-29.5) @ Purdue, California @ Louisville (-18.5)

College Football Picks- Week 11 2025

I broke even on my weekly bets last week- I hit on SMU ML +400, but lost 3 units on Washington State. The Washington State bet was a weird one- Oregon State couldn’t get anything done on offense all game, but scored a late touchdown and won with under 200 yards of offense. On to the next week.

I won 10 units on my futures- my North Texas to make the playoff at 30/1 continues to look quite good.

Futures*: +41.4 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Week 9: +0.84 units

Week 10: 0 units

Season Total: +54.66 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

I’m placing this bet on Arkansas State for two reasons. First, I like it- I think these teams are reasonably evenly matched. Second, it hedges my existing exposure- I have two units on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475. That’s pretty much a lock if they win this game, and a little worse than a coin flip if they lose. Arkansas State is a decent team that has miraculously held onto QB Jaylen Raynor for three years- he is a great athlete and could play at some P4 programs.

Arkansas State ML +160 (2 units)

Wake Forest @ Virginia (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Virginia has been piling up wins by the skin of their teeth. Even last week’s double digit win over Cal was a bit of a fraud- it required a late pick six. However, I think the Cavaliers can roll here. They’re much more talented than Wake Forest, who might have the cheapest roster in the P4. Wake Forest got off to a good start, but they have no depth and that’s hurt them recently as the season wears along. I like Virginia to cruise here.

Virginia -6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)

Georgia State has been a disaster since Dell McGee took over as HC a few years ago. He started in a weird spot- former HC Shawn Elliot stepped down at an awkward time, costing McGee a full recruiting cycle. However, it’s gone from bad to worse- Georgia State probably won’t win an FCS game all year. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, has been much improved in recent weeks. I think they should really destroy an awful Georgia State team and I like the alt line here.

Coastal Carolina -21.5 +392 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 10 2025

I made a few units on my future last week. SMU losing as a favorite to Wake Forest was quite helpful. The Vandy win over Mizzou was a double win for us. We also made more on San Diego State, Southern Miss and Texas A&M.

New Bets

Cincinnati to miss the Playoff -425 (4 units)

There’s a straight arbitrage available here- Cincinnati is -425 to miss the playoff on DraftKings and +550 to make it on FanDuel. This is the much better leg of the trade. Cincinnati is having a solid season and has made it into my model’s top 25. The Bearcats need to win the Big 12 to have a shot at the playoff, and are touchdown underdogs at Utah this weekend and are roughly a coin flip against BYU and TCU. This is a decent team, but they are going to have to win two of those three games just to get to the Big 12 title game- where they’ll likely be a decent underdog to Texas Tech. The math isn’t mathing on this one.

Kennesaw State to win CUSA +170 (2 units)

Kennesaw State is one of the biggest surprises in the sport. I was skeptical for a while, but I have to admit that the Owls are legit- they exploded for nearly 9 yards per play last week. An added benefit for them- Conference USA’s tiebreakers are largely based on computer ratings, and they’re the highest rated CUSA team in most computers- this gives them a very good chance of making the conference title game.

Utah to win the Big 12 20/1 (1 unit)

This is a Big 12 team I’m more interested in betting on. Utah is physical on the lines and utterly dominated Colorado last week (they had a 380 to -10 yard edge at halftime!). They do already have two losses to fellow contenders BYU and Texas Tech- but they stand a decent chance at making the Big 12 title game if they go 4-0 down the stretch. It helps that this is a consensus top 15 team in the computers- I give them a 60% chance of winning out.

Iowa to make the Playoff 28/1 (1 unit)

Iowa’s offense has improved under former South Dakota State QB Mark Gronowski. It’s not good, but it has at least improved. That complements their consistently excellent defense and special teams.

If you look at Iowa’s resume, are we sure this isn’t like, the 12th best team in the country? They gave Indiana their closest game of the season (by far) and lost a close game to Iowa State on the road. They also obliterated Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa has a tough remaining schedule with Oregon and USC- but that’s why this bet is 28/1. I think that they will be competitive in both games.

Rooting Guide

Navy @ North Texas (-6.5)

This is the most important game of the week for us. We will win 30 units if North Texas makes the playoff (which they likely will if they win the conference). We’re also implicitly short Navy by being long other teams in the American (North Texas, Tulane and South Florida).

Vanderbilt @ Texas (-1.5)

We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff and make 16 units if Texas doesn’t. Texas has looked awful in the last two weeks and we can finally put their playoff hopes to bed with a loss here.

North Carolina @ Syracuse (-2)

We will win 8 units if North Carolina wins 0 or 1 more games this season. They are playing a lot better since their bye week and this game looks like a coin flip to me.

New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (-8.5)

This is a pretty important one for us- we’re long NMSU and short WKU. We’re also implicitly short WKU from being long the other CUSA contenders (Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana Tech)

Texas Tech (-7.5) @ Kansas State

We’re quite long Texas Tech- their Big 12 hopes get quite murky with a loss here. I quite like Kansas State, and it could be worth a hedge on KSU ML if you are so inclined.

Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida

We have some shorts on UGA from preseason that would have a chance if they lose here.

Tulane (-3.5) @ UTSA

Tulane is now the betting favorite to make the playoff out of the G5. We will win 11 units if they do- a bit less then the 30 and 20 units we win if North Texas or South Florida makes the playoff, but a respectable sum nonetheless.

Miami (-11.5) @ SMU

Our exposure here is complicated- we’re short both teams, and also have SMU ML, and also have some small longs on Miami. Net net- we prefer an SMU win here.

Cincinnati @ Utah (-8.5)

We’re long Utah and short Cincinnati. It would be great if Utah takes care of business here.

Oklahoma @ Tennessee (-3)

We’re long Oklahoma and short Tennessee. A Sooners win here puts Tennessee’s playoff hopes to bed.

New Mexico @ UNLV (-4.5)

Our UNLV shorts have some life, and a UNLV loss here has the added bonus of helping San Diego State.

Wyoming @ San Diego State (-10.5)

San Diego State has been a wagon since we got long them, we want that to continue.

UTEP @ Kennesaw State (-9.5)

Kennesaw State takes another step to winning the conference with a win here.

Louisville (-10.5) @ Virginia Tech

We make 6 units if Louisville makes the playoff, and they take a decent step to it with a win here.

Jacksonville State (-6.5) @ Middle Tennessee State

Jacksonville State needs to win this to keep realistic hopes at winning the league alive.

Virginia (-3.5) @ California

We make 8 units if Virginia make the playoff, and this is one of their trickiest games left.

East Carolina (-4.5) @ Temple

Our position in the American is complicated, but would be helped a bit by a Temple win.

Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:

Indiana (-21.5) @ Maryland, Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State, Stanford (+14.5) vs. Pittsburgh, Rice (+14) vs. Memphis

College Football Picks- Week 10 2025

It was another decent week for me- I went 2-1 on my weekly picks, winning a unit. I also marked in a few units on the futures- while I lost on South Florida, I made on SMU, Texas A&M, Virginia and Vanderbilt.

Futures*: +32.01 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Week 9: +0.84 units

Season Total: +45.27 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Washington State @ Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

These two teams will play a rare home-and-home this season as the sole remaining members of the Pac-12. While both teams are without a proper conference this season, their seasons have been quite different. Washington State has a first year HC in fomer South Dakota State HC Jimmy Rogers- they have solid wins over San Diego State and Toledo, and close road losses to Ole Miss and Virginia. Oregon State, meanwhile, fired HC Trent Bray a few weeks ago after a disastrous start. This line has already moved a bit in my favor- Washington State should be a much bigger favorite here.

Washington State -2.5 -122 (3 units)

Wake Forest @ Florida State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

The talent differential in this game is immense. Wake Forest might have the least expensive roster in the P4, while Florida State’s roster is pushing $15 million. However, first year HC Jake Dickert seems to have found diamonds in the rough at Wake Forest, as they’ve played way above their talent level all season. More importantly, Florida State might have just quit on HC Mike Norvell. Rumors are swirling about his job, and the Seminoles looked disinterested against Stanford in their last game. I like Wake Forest ML- Norvell seems to have lost the locker room.

Wake Forest ML +230 (1 unit)

Miami @ SMU (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

These are both talented, but flawed teams. Miami has a great roster, especially on the lines- but Carson Beck sometimes throws interceptions in spades, and Mario Cristobal still can’t be trusted to manage a game. SMU has a very volatile QB in Kevin Jennings- sometimes he looks like a world beater, and other times he looks awful. SMU has the talent to hang in this one, and I like betting an ML underdog in a game with two volatile teams.

SMU ML +400 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 9 2025

I broke even on my futures once again last week. I had some pretty tough losses with Texas Tech (who nearly came back to win), Miami and Memphis (who was a 24 point favorite). However, I won a ton on Stanford, who now looks likely to go over 3.5 wins after their upset win over Florida State.

New Bets

Big 12 under 1.5 Playoff Teams -220 (7 units)

As I mentioned above, Texas Tech lost last week to Arizona State. That’s disastrous for the Big 12’s chances of getting multiple teams in the playoff- the Red Raiders were the league’s most compelling at-large case by far.

I really struggle to see how the Big 12 could get 2 teams into the playoff. BYU is still undefeated and would certainly get an at-large bid with only one loss, but they still have a few games they’ll be underdogs in. Everyone else has a loss and I struggle to see a 2 loss Big 12 team getting an at-large bid- maybe Texas Tech could, but it is unlikely.

South Florida to win the American +125 (5 units)

South Florida continues to look excellent, and their main competition in the American, Memphis, just lost as a 24 point favorite to UAB. South Florida plays Memphis this weekend and is firmly in the driver’s seat in the conference with a win.

An important factor here- all non head-to-head tiebreakers in the American are determined by CFP rankings and computer rankings, which South Florida is very likely to have an edge in over say, Memphis or Tulane.

Georgia to win the SEC +500 (1 unit)

Georgia is in good position to make the SEC title game. The ‘Dawgs have 1 loss in conference play, and only 3 games left- easy ones against Florida and Mississippi State, and a home game against Texas.

Alabama and Texas A&M both are undefeated in SEC play, so Georgia does need one of them to trip up- but Texas A&M probably will somewhere. In the event of a tiebreaker with A&M or other SEC teams, it will come down to conference strength of schedule, and Georgia is in very good shape there.

Rooting Guide

South Florida (-4.5) @ Memphis

We got long South Florida to win the American at 10/1 in the preseason. Then I added more at +230 last week, and even more at +125 today. The Bulls are the best team in the G5, and this line has been moving towards them all week- it opened at -2.

Texas (-7) @ Mississippi State

We marked in on our Texas shorts last week despite their win over Kentucky. They looked awful- they were outgained by 200 yards and were very lucky to win. One more Texas loss and we cash our under 9.5 wins ticket.

Missouri @ Vanderbilt (-2.5)

We’re long Vanderbilt to make the playoff and short Mizzou to make the playoff. Vanderbilt would move to around +130 to make the playoff with a win here.

Ole Miss @ Oklahoma (-5.5)

We sold out of half of our Oklahoma exposure last week, but we still have a good bit. We’re a bit long Ole Miss as well, but we have a good bit more exposure on Oklahoma. This is a huge playoff gamma game- the winner will be favored to make it while the loser will be running out of hope.

Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech (-5.5)

This is a Tuesday night game, it’s at halftime at time of writing. Unfortunately, Louisiana Tech is losing- we have 3 units on them to win CUSA and are also implicitly short WKU from bets elsewhere.

Virginia (-10.5) @ North Carolina

We have 1 unit on Virginia to make the playoff which we’ve marked in a bit on- the chaos in the ACC has helped us. More importantly, we also have 0.5 units on UNC to go 3-9 or worse at 16/1. We need them to keep losing games like this.

San Diego State (-3) @ Fresno State

We got long SDSU at the right time. We have the Aztecs to make the conference title game at +500- they would be favored to do so with a win here.

Houston @ Arizona State (-7.5)

Texas Tech losing was pretty bad for us, but they at least did it to Arizona State, who we’re also long (just not as long). The Sun Devils look much better now that QB Sam Leavitt is back- backup QB Jeff Sims sucks.

Texas A&M (-2.5) @ LSU

Our A&M longs and our LSU shorts are both pretty in the money, but we’d still be helped by an A&M win here.

SMU (-3.5) @ Wake Forest

We have SMU under 8.5 wins which looks bad after their win against Clemson. We’re also implicitly short them from other ACC bets we have.

BYU @ Iowa State (-2.5)

While we don’t have any explicit exposure here, our other Big 12 positions would be helped by an Iowa State win.

The following teams we have a rooting interest in are very big favorites or very big underdogs:

Stanford (+30.5 @ Miami), Indiana (-25.5 vs. UCLA), Alabama (-12.5 @ South Carolina), Wisconsin (+33.5 @ Oregon), Texas Tech (-38.5 vs. Oklahoma State), North Texas (-26.5 @ Charlotte), Boise State (-21.5 @ Nevada), Louisville (-25.5 vs. Boston College), Ohio (-12.5 @ Eastern Michigan)

College Football Picks- Week 9 2025

It was yet another solid week- this time I made most of my money on alt lines. UCF -22.5 +419 and UConn -13.5 +380 both hit. This is the first year I’ve bet alt lines, and I’m really pleased with the success that I’ve had. My main alt line strategy has been betting against teams that (a) my model is low on and (b) I think have bad coaching staffs. Coaching matters so much in college football, and it’s not uncommon to see teams just quit in the middle of the season- in a way that you’ll never really see in the NFL.

Futures*: +27.03 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Week 8: +8.16 units

Season Total: +39.45 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

UL Monroe @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

A few weeks ago I bet Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475. This has been one of my biggest winners of the season- the Golden Eagles have since rattled off a few wins in a row and become the favorites to win the division.

ULM is one of the most woebegone programs in FBS- they have no money, and it’s a miracle that they won 5 games last year. Southern Miss is so much more talented than them and should roll here.

Southern Miss -10.5 -105 (1 unit)

NC State @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Pitt started the season with former Alabama QB Eli Holstein. In a controversial move at the time, HC Pat Narduzzi benched him after a few weeks for true freshman Mason Heintschel. It looks like a genius move now, as he’s made 3 starts and Pitt has cleared 30 points in each of them.

Rumors are swirling around NC State HC Dave Doeren with a lot of people penciling James Franklin into the NC State job. The Wolfpack have been disappointing this year and Pitt should be a bigger favorite.

Pittsburgh -6.5 -112 (1 unit)

TCU @ West Virginia (Saturday, 5 PM Central)

I bet an alt line against West Virginia last week and it hit- I’m doing it again. Rich Rodriguez went full portal in his return to WVU, and it has not paid off in year one- this is one of the worst rosters in the P4. TCU QB Josh Hoover can really sling it, and they have the capability to light up the scoreboard. That makes me think TCU can really blow West Virginia out of the water.

TCU -28.5 +369 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 8 2025

I broke even on my futures last week. My biggest winner was Indiana- in particular, my Indiana to win the Big Ten bet at 15/1 from a few weeks ago looks great here.

New Bets

Oklahoma to miss the Playoff -225 (6 units)

I got really long Oklahoma in the preseason, but it’s time to close some of my position here. They looked awful against Texas last week- John Mateer is clearly not 100% healthy. I understand why he played, as backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. sucked. More concerning for me is that Oklahoma has developed absolutely zero run game. Former Cal RB Jaydn Ott was supposed to be the bellcow but Oklahoma’s coaching staff clearly doesn’t trust him. Their schedule is brutal and they’re not as good as I thought- as evidenced by the fact that they’re only a 4.5 point favorite against South Carolina.

Missouri to miss the Playoff -340 (3 units)

I don’t think Mizzou has the top end talent to seriously compete in the SEC. They also have an easier schedule than most SEC teams which could work to their disadvantage- if there’s a jumble of 10-2 SEC teams fighting for the last few playoff bids, a team with an easy schedule and relative little name brand like Mizzou will be at the bottom of the pecking order.

Bowling Green to win the MAC +700 (2 units)

Eddie George took over at Bowling Green this year. This isn’t some vanity project- he was previously the coach at Tennessee State, which is a historically downtrodden HBCU program who he took to the FCS playoffs. He has done a nice job in year 1 building a roster out of the portal and knocked off arch-rival and conference favorite Toledo last week. I really like the Falcons.

South Florida to win the American +230 (2 units)

South Florida dominated North Texas on the road on Friday. South Florida and Memphis are the two teams in the American with the best high-end talent, and the Bulls might have the best QB in the G5 in Byrum Brown. Other than a road trip to Memphis in two weeks, their schedule is very manageable.

Texas Tech to go undefeated +165 (2 units)

Texas Tech to make National Championship Game +750 (1 unit)

It’s time to get longer Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have been a total wagon this year- they are 6-0 ATS and haven’t had a game closer than 24 points. I’ve been getting long them for the last few weeks and continue to do so here- their upside is much higher than the typical Big 12 team given how much high-end talent they got in the portal.

Texas A&M to win the SEC +500 (1 unit)

I’ve been long Texas A&M since June and don’t plan on stopping now. Their defense has improved leaps and bounds since the Notre Dame game and Marcel Reed is rounding into form at QB. They’re taking care of business against bad SEC teams and their remaining schedule is manageable by SEC standards.

Virginia to make the Playoff +880 (1 unit)

Virginia has an extremely light schedule and has a great shot at making the ACC title game. Their game with Duke will likely decide whether or not they make it to Charlotte. They have a non-zero chance of getting into the playoff even if they lose the ACC title game to Miami, so long as they win out until then.

(Friday night special)

Miami to miss the Playoff +230 (4 units)

As I write this, Miami just lost to Louisville at home. I don’t think this line moved enough given this result. We have precedent from last year that a 10-2 Miami team is likely to miss out on the playoff- they’re certainly not getting in over a 10-2 SEC team. Miami’s schedule is not trivial down the stretch with road games at SMU and Pitt. Miami’s offense was shaky against Louisville and the Hurricanes will be outside the top 10 in many computer models after that loss.

Rooting Guide

UNLV @ Boise State (-10.5): This is key for our 5 units on Boise State to win the Mountain West. A win here pretty much locks up a place in the conference title game for them, and puts our UNLV under 8.5 wins back in play.

Ole Miss @ Georgia (-7): We’re long Ole Miss to make the playoff and short Georgia to make the playoff. Ole Miss looked quite bad last week and as a result this line has grown from 3.5 to 7, which is bad news for us.

Texas (-11.5) @ Kentucky: We are very short Texas and a win here would be phenomenal. I will admit I was surprised to see the Longhorns as only an 11.5 point favorite here.

LSU @ Vanderbilt (-2.5): We’re long Vanderbilt to make the playoff and short LSU to make the playoff.

SMU @ Clemson (-9.5): We have two units on Clemson -11.5 in this game from the preseason.

Southern Miss (-4) @ Louisiana: Our bet on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475 immediately looks great- not only did they win, but their main rival for the division (Texas State) lost. The Golden Eagles are undefeated in Sun Belt play and are two games up on Texas State in the loss column.

USC @ Notre Dame (-9.5): We’re long Notre Dame to make the playoff and they essentially have two real games remaining- this one and a November trip to Pitt.

Army @ Tulane (-9.5): A little surprised to see Tulane as only a 9.5 point favorite here. We’re decently long the Green Wave.

Tennessee @ Alabama (-8.5): Alabama keeps on winning and our bets on them to win the SEC keep looking better and better. We want them to stay on track here.

North Carolina @ California (-9.5): This is one of the winnable games on North Carolina’s schedule. We can only afford for them to get one more win, they’re 2-3 and we have under 3.5 wins at 16/1.

FIU @ Western Kentucky (-9.5): We’re implicitly quite short Western Kentucky from our longs elsewhere in CUSA.

Texas A&M (-7.5) @ Arkansas: Our longs on Texas A&M look better by the week. This is a tricky road game against a plucky Arkansas team.

Texas State (-2.5) @ Marshall: We are implicitly quite short Texas State as we are long all four of the other contenders in the Sun Belt (JMU, ODU, Southern Miss, Troy).

Oklahoma (-4.5) @ South Carolina: We are still long the Oklahoma win total even if we’ve closed most of the playoff exposure, a win here keeps them on track to cash the over there.

Texas Tech (-12) @ Arizona State: Our Texas Tech longs look very good. It seems Arizona State might still have to play backup QB Jeff Sims here, who sucks.

Delaware (-2.5) @ Jacksonville State: We’re long both teams but longer Jacksonville State.

Troy (-6) @ ULM: We have Troy to win the Sun Belt at 15/1. A win here takes them closer to a two horse race for the division with Southern Miss, who we are also long.

Old Dominion @ James Madison (-2.5): We are long both teams, it’s not clear which result we’d prefer.

Other teams who are large favorites (>=14 points) that we are rooting for include, in order of importance: Indiana, Ohio State, Miami, Memphis, South Florida.

College Football Picks- Week 8 2025

Week 7 was a mixed bag. I roughly broke even on my futures- Texas winning was pretty bad, but I made up for it with Indiana, Alabama and Southern Miss all winning. By my math, I made about a unit on my futures. My weekly picks won two units- driven by Indiana ML and Florida Atlantic -19.5 alt line. Unfortunately, that’s the last time we’ll be able to fade Trent Dilfer’s UAB team with an alt line- he was fired after the game.

Futures*: +24.24 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Week 7: +2.04 units

Season Total: +28.50 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Coastal Carolina @ App State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Both of these teams are pretty weak compared to their recent peaks- both have been ranked in the top 25 in recent years. Coastal, however, has shown some signs of life in recent weeks with dominating wins over ULM and South Alabama. App State may be 4-2, but those wins are over a bad FCS team and then three of the worst teams in FBS. Coastal is improving and App has their least talented team in a decade- this line is too big.

Coastal Carolina +11.5 -110 (2 units)

Central Michigan @ Bowling Green (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Bowling Green is rocketing up my ratings after a win over presumptive MAC favorite Toledo- you’ll be seeing more of the Falcons in my futures bets this week. CMU, on the other hand, has seen their season go off the rails a bit after a loss to a bad Akron team. HC Eddie George (yes, that Eddie George) has already built a decent roster at Bowling Green and they should roll here.

Bowling Green -4.5 -115 (1 unit)

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

This battle of GSUs has developed as a real rivalry in recent years. Georgia Southern is having a bit of a disappointing year, but it’s nothing compared to the disaster at Georgia State. The Panthers have been in disarray since former HC Shawn Elliot left late in the coaching cycle, costing them an entire recruiting class. New HC Dell McGee inherited a bad situation, but has made it worse and this is a bottom 10 team in FBS. I expect to be fading his squad frequently over the weeks to come.

Georgia Southern -6.5 -118 (1 unit)

UTSA @ North Texas (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I was pretty bullish on North Texas earlier this season and even got them to make the playoff at 30/1. I am much lower on the Mean Green after a disastrous game again USF where they committed a million turnovers. UTSA’s talent level is a lot better than their record and they have one of the better players in the G5 in RB Robert Henry Jr. I think UTSA has a very good shot in this one, and this also hedges my existing North Texas exposure.

UTSA ML +180 (1 unit)

UConn @ Boston College (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

UConn has had a confusing season. Sometimes they look great, like when they beat FIU by 41 as a 3 point favorite. Other times they look awful, like when choking away a game against Delaware. They’re a high variance team who can score a ton of points. Boston College, meanwhile, is in disarray. Their loss to Michigan State keeps looking worse and they’ve already lost to two of the worst teams in the ACC. Their defense is awful and I think UConn could score a ton of points on them.

UConn -13.5 +380 (1 unit)

UConn -20.5 +750 (0.5 units)

West Virginia @ UCF (Saturday, Noon Central)

West Virginia is one of the worst teams in the Power Five. Their rivalry win over Pitt is truly one of the most perplexing results of the season. UCF showed us that they have the ability to bury bad teams when they killed UNC (cashing the alt line for us there) a few weeks ago. I think they can do it again here.

UCF -22.5 +419 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 7 2025

Week 6 couldn’t have gone much better for my futures bets. I marked in a ton on my Texas shorts with their loss to Florida. I also marked in on a bunch on Penn State shorts- I bet them to miss the playoff +140 right before their loss to UCLA.

New Bets

Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West +475 (2 units)

Southern Miss is an interesting team this year. They were awful last year, but made a great hire in former Marshall coach Charles Huff. Huff actually led Marshall to the Sun Belt title last year but was chased out of town in a bizarre power struggle that reflected a lot worse on the school than him.

Huff is back at a different Sun Belt school and brought over 20 players with him. He has the Golden Eagles humming in year 1- they have two close losses to two good teams and three dominating wins over bad ones. The SBC West race is wide open after presumptive favorite Texas State lost as a two touchdown favorite last week and I like Southern Miss in that race.

Memphis to win the American +310 (1 unit)

Memphis looks like the best team in the G5 to me. They have an amazing run game and have a ton of talent on the lines, thanks to their G5-leading NIL budget. I bet the Tigers to go undefeated at +550 two weeks ago and am doubling down on this line.

Old Dominion to win the Sun Belt +200 (1 unit)

I’ve been a buyer of Old Dominion for a while now- we got them to make the playoff at 30/1 and them to win the Sun Belt East at +300 a few weeks ago. ODU and James Madison are the two best teams by far in the Sun Belt, and they’re both in the East, so only one can go to the conference title game.

I think ODU has pulled ahead of JMU and is the best team in the conference. Dual threat QB Colton Joseph has been a revelation this year, and the Monarchs have four blowout wins, including one at Virginia Tech. Their only loss is to Indiana, and that loss keeps looking better as the season goes along. I’m all aboard the Old Dominion hype train.

San Diego State to make the Mountain West title game +500 (1 unit)

San Diego State is starting to put things together in year two under HC Sean Lewis. The Aztecs shocked Cal 34-0 as a two touchdown underdog a few weeks ago. They then showed they can win lots of different ways by beating Northern Illinois 6-3 the following week.

SDSU’s talent is a lot better than most other Mountain West teams, because they have a decent amount of money and are serious NIL players at the G5 level. It showed last week when they demolished an awful Colorado State team.

Their schedule is also manageable- they avoid the number 2 team in the league (UNLV) and host the number 1 team (Boise State). I like a flier here.

Harvard to win FCS National Championship 30/1 (1 unit)

No, this is not a joke. Harvard has a lot more talent on their roster than you’d guess. They’re able to sign a handful of guys with low-P5/high-G5 talent who simply want to play at Harvard. This includes starting QB Jaden Craig, who is generating some NFL draft buzz. They’re consistently recruiting better than at least a dozen FBS teams.

I don’t have FCS teams in my model, but other models that I trust do have FCS, and they’re very bullish on Harvard. They’re second in FCS in SP+, third in KFord and seventh in Sagarin. It’s pretty surprising to me that they’re 30/1 to win the national title given that. This is the first year that Ivy League teams are participating in the FCS playoffs and I like what I see from the Crimson.

Nebraska to make the Playoff +1300 (0.5 units)

Nebraska has a real shot at the playoff. Their only loss is a close one to Michigan, and their season opening win against Cincinnati keeps looking better. They avoid the really good Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana) but have quality win opportunities against the second tier of the conference (USC, Penn State, Iowa). An 11-1 Nebraska team definitely gets in the playoff and a 10-2 team might.

Duke to make the Playoff +1800 (0.5 units)

Duke has looked great the last few weeks as QB Darian Mensah has regained his 2024 form. They just need to win the ACC to make the playoff (probably- there’s a slim chance they get left out winning the league). They’re already 3-0 in the league and will be in the ACC title game if they can beat fellow contenders Georgia Tech and Virginia (both games are at home and I make Duke a small favorite in each). Crazier things have happened than a Duke playoff berth.

Rooting Guide

Here are the most important games to follow in week 7 if you’ve been betting on my futures all season.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (-1.5): This is one of our biggest games of the year. We’re long Oklahoma (we’ll win 11 units if they make the playoff, and a further 6 if they win 10 games). We’re very short Texas- we’ll cash +140 on our under 9.5 wins bet if they lose this, and our bet on them to miss the playoff at +250 will look very good. Oklahoma QB John Mateer is questionable, although my guess is that he doesn’t play. If he does play, Oklahoma will likely become a small favorite. It’s also worth noting we have two units on Oklahoma +11.5 here from the preseason.

Indiana @ Oregon (-7.5): This is another huge game for us. We’ll make 12 units if Indiana makes the playoff and a further 3 if they win 10 games. We also have Indiana to win the Big Ten at +1500, and this game is almost a Big Ten semifinal- neither team plays Ohio State, and with Penn State out of the picture, the winner is very likely to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. We also have two units on Indiana +14 in this game from the preseason.

Alabama (-3) @ Missouri: We are pretty long Alabama and this is a tricky road game. This line has been dropping all week- my model doesn’t like Missouri that much, but other computer models do.

Louisiana Tech (-5.5) @ Kennesaw State: We bet Louisiana Tech -5.5, but have a lot of exposure here from our futures bets as well.

Georgia (-3.5) @ Auburn: We have Georgia to miss the playoff at +198, we need them to lose an SEC road game or two like this somewhere along the way.

Jacksonville State (-7) @ Sam Houston State: We bet Jacksonville State -8.5, but have a good bit of exposure here from our futures bets as well.

Florida @ Texas A&M (-7.5): We’re pretty long Texas A&M and this is not a trivial game at home against resurgent Florida.

Troy @ Texas State (-8.5): We’re long Troy and this would be a nice win for us. A Troy win also helps out Southern miss a good bit.

Southern Miss (-3.5) @ Georgia Southern: Today’s bet on Southern Miss will be greatly helped with a win here.

Michigan @ USC (-2.5): We have a unit on Michigan to make the playoff and this is the big swing game that will define their season.

South Florida @ North Texas (-1.5): We are long both teams (at very good prices, I might add), but a bit longer North Texas. We’re rooting for the Mean Green here.

East Carolina @ Tulane (-7): We’re long both teams but a bit longer Tulane.

Other teams we are rooting for who are heavy favorites (>= 14 points) include, in order of importance, Old Dominion, Ohio State, Texas Tech, James Madison, Boise State and Ole Miss.

College Football Picks- Week 7 2025

Futures*: +24.36 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Week 6: +3.83 units

Season Total: +26.58 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

I finally had the amazing week that I’ve come so close to a few times this season. Nearly everything went right for me last week. Texas lost to Florida- I marked in around 8 units on my Texas shorts. Penn State lost to UCLA the week after I bet on them to miss the playoff. Clemson dominated UNC and I hit my alt line of Clemson -19.5. I couldn’t have asked for a better week.

Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston (Thursday, 7 PM Central)

Both of these teams contended for the conference title last year and lost their coaches as a result. It’s going very differently for them. Jacksonville State looks decent (and their old coach, Rich Rodriguez, is struggling at West Virginia). Sam Houston looks awful (and their old coach, KC Keeler, is doing very well at Temple).

Sam Houston is really, really bad. I think they’re the worst team in FBS- New Mexico State (a bottom 15 team) blew the doors off them last week. I also like Jax State- I’ve bet on them a few times this season already. I’m very surprised this spread is in the single digits.

Jacksonville State -8.5 -110 (3 units)

Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State (Thursday, 6 PM Central)

Conference USA is the worst FBS conference, and it’s not close. CUSA is bad even by its standards this year- and nothing shows that better than the fact that Kennesaw State is 10/1 to win the league. The Owls were a bottom 3 team in FBS last year, and have improved to about fifteenth-worst. Their talent level is still far behind established FBS programs like Louisiana Tech, though. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the G5 and will shut down Kennesaw.

Louisiana Tech -5.5 -110 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ Oregon State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Oregon State has been a weird team this year. They are 0-6 and struggling with some really basic things- their long snapper is hurt and they’ve had several disastrous plays on special teams since. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is quietly competent. The officials robbed them of an upset over Georgia Tech, and they beat Virginia Tech as an underdog last week. Wake Forest HC Jake Dickert is also very familiar with Oregon State from his time at Washington State. The Demon Deacons are a pleasant surprise this year and Oregon State is in freefall.

Wake Forest -2.5 -115 (1 unit)

Georgia @ Auburn (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I am not convinced Georgia is that good. Their defense has a lot of problems- Joey Aguilar carved them up in the first half of the Tennessee game, and they allowed Alabama to convert approximately a million third downs a few weeks later.

Auburn is certainly talented, especially in the WR corps. Their problems are all on the offensive line- but I don’t know if Georgia has the guys up front to make them pay there. Auburn’s overall talent is only a step behind Georgia’s.

Auburn +4.5 -110 (1 unit)

Indiana @ Oregon (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

As I’ll discuss in the futures bets this week, I already have a ton of exposure on Indiana here (including 2 units on Indiana +14 that I bet in the preseason). I’ll add another unit on the moneyline. The computer models, mine included, love Indiana. They’ve done everything you could ask of them this season (including a win over Old Dominion that has aged very well). The talent level on their roster is getting serious and QB Fernando Mendoza is getting a lot of first round buzz. I really like the Hoosiers.

Indiana ML +280 (1 unit)

Arkansas @ Tennessee (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)

This is Bobby Petrino’s first game as interim Arkansas coach. Previous HC Sam Pittman was fired after the loss to Notre Dame, so Petrino has had the bye week to prepare the roster for this game.

You can criticize Petrino all you want (I’ll be the first guy to criticize him)- but he can certainly scheme up an offense. I wouldn’t want him running my program long term, but if you had to pick a guy to coach my team for one game, you could do a lot worse. I’m sure he has some tricks up his sleeve for this one. Arkansas has a talented roster and QB Taylen Green fits the scheme Petrino likes to run.

Arkansas ML +340 (1 unit)

UAB @ Florida Atlantic (Saturday, 5 PM Central)

It’s time to bring back a classic trade- the Trent Dilfer put. Everyone in the industry knows that UAB coach Trent Dilfer is a dead man walking this year. His team has looked awful so far this year (they nearly lost to Alabama State). He also has assembled a roster full of JUCO players and other random misfits who have no allegiance to him and might just give up at the first sign of trouble. Florida Atlantic QB Caden Veltkamp can really sling it and I think the Owls might roll here.

Florida Atlantic -19.5 +437 (1 unit)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 6 2025

Week 5 was another good one for my futures bets. The biggest results were Ole Miss beating LSU and Alabama beating Georgia. We’re long Ole Miss and Alabama and short LSU and Georgia and marked in on all four legs- the LSU shorts in particular moved a lot in our favor.

New Bets

Penn State to miss the Playoff +140 (3 units)

I don’t think Penn State is on the same level as the elite teams in the sport. They’re down to seventh in my ratings after the loss to Oregon.

More importantly, I am not convinced a 10-2 Penn State team makes the playoff. It’s pretty likely they win exactly 10 games- the most likely scenario is that they lose at Ohio State and win the rest of their games. That would give them one good win (over Indiana) and likely no other ranked wins (unless Nebraska or Iowa sneaks into the top 25). They played absolutely no one in non-conference play, and also drew the dregs of the Big Ten in conference play (UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State). That makes for a light playoff resume.

If it comes down to a 10-2 Penn State or a 10-2 SEC team for the last playoff spot, Penn State will be on the outside looking in.

Texas A&M to make the Playoff -114 (2 units)

I got 2 units on Texas A&M to make the playoff at +245 in the preseason and am doubling down here. The Aggies are ninth in my ratings, and are already building a good playoff resume. Their win at Notre Dame is going to look amazing at the end of the year (I expect the Irish to finish 10-2 or 9-3). That makes A&M a playoff lock at 10-2, and I think they’ll get some consideration at 9-3. They also avoid my model’s three best SEC teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss) in conference play- the slate is manageable by SEC standards.

Louisiana Tech to win CUSA +200 (2 units)

This is a strange line. Louisiana Tech might have the best defense in the G5- their defense has smothered other G5 teams and held LSU to only 23 points. They’re the best team in Conference USA- and the only teams that are close are Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Delaware. They don’t play Jacksonville State, and Delaware is ineligible for the conference title this year.

The only reason I’m not sizing this bet bigger is because I think HC Sonny Cumbie is a bit of a dumbass. Everyone in the industry expected him to be fired last year but it appears Louisiana Tech was too broke to fire him. However, it seems he has a good roster and the thousand pound gorilla of CUSA (Liberty) sucks this year. That opens a door for the Bulldogs.

Ohio State to win the Big Ten +180 (1 unit)

I’ve had Ohio State #1 in my ratings since the preseason and am not stopping now. Their offense has taken a step back, but their defense is terrifying. I expected their secondary to be elite, but their pass rush is unexpectedly the best in the country as well. They’re well set up from a tiebreaker perspective as well- if they win the Penn State game (which is at home), they’re very likely to make the Big Ten title game. They avoid both Indiana and Oregon in conference play.

Alabama to win the SEC +320 (1 unit)

I bet Alabama to win the SEC at +500 in the preseason and I’m back for more. The talent is obviously there. Encouragingly, OC Ryan Grubb appears to be back in his groove now that he’s back in college after a brief stint with the Seahawks. He really emptied the bag of tricks against Georgia last week.

This is the most talented roster in the sport outside of Columbus, Ohio, and they already have a win over Georgia. Their toughest remaining games (Oklahoma, LSU) are at home. They’re the clear SEC favorite.

Toledo to win the MAC +360 (1 unit)

I bet on Toledo to win the MAC at +185 a few weeks ago, and then they lost a stupid game to Western Michigan. That’s unfortunate, but Toledo has a habit of being the best team in the MAC and then losing a stupid game somewhere. It doesn’t change my belief that this is the most talented team in the conference. Does anyone else in the MAC have a 200 yard/game rushing attack led by a former Ohio State RB?

Louisville to make the Playoff +610 (1 unit)

Everyone keeps forgetting about Jeff Brohm’s Louisville. They started the season nearly ranked, and are now 4-0- having performed right in line with the spread in every game so far. I’m a bit perplexed that they’re not ranked in the AP Poll, and not even among the first few teams out either.

Their next two games- home to Virginia and at Miami- are huge. A split there keeps them in good shape for the second spot in the ACC title game. Their November schedule also looks much easier than it did in the preseason with Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU and Kentucky all underperforming.

Rooting Guide

Here are the most important games to follow in week 6 if you’ve been betting on my futures all season.

Texas (-7) @ Florida: We’re really short Texas. So far, so good- they lost to Ohio State and then beat a bunch of cupcakes. This is their first real game in a month, and an upset here would make our shorts deep in the money.

Western Kentucky @ Delaware (-2.5): This is a huge one for us. We have Western Kentucky under 7.5 wins. We are also implicitly short WKU from our longs on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. We also have Delaware to win 10+ games at +2100, and that is very much alive if they win this one.

Miami (-4.5) @ Florida State: We’re long both teams but longer Miami. We have Miami to go undefeated at +280 and that’ll be around even money if they win this game.

Sam Houston State (-2.5) @ New Mexico State: We have New Mexico State over 4.5 wins. That’s around a coin flip right now, and this game is also a coin flip.

UNLV (-3.5) @ Wyoming. We have 5 units on UNLV under 8.5 wins. The good news is they’ve looked bad so far this season. They bad news is they’re undefeated because they keep pulling rabbits out of their hat. We’re out of the money and need them to lose games like this.

Texas Tech (-12.5) @ Houston: We are pretty long Texas Tech. The market agrees with us- their odds to make the playoff have moved from +205 (where we bet) to +120 without them playing a game.

Clemson (-14) @ North Carolina: We have some wing puts on North Carolina. The good news is those puts are becoming closer to at the money as they keep looking awful.

Boise State @ Notre Dame (-20.5): We’re long both teams to make the playoff but a Boise State win would definitely be good for us.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (-14): We now have 4 units on A&M to make the playoff and need them to take care of business here.

Central Michigan (-8.5) @ Akron: Our bet on CMU over 5.5 wins is looking solid and will look even better with a win here.

Kansas (-5) @ UCF: We’re long some wing calls on UCF that will decay a good bit with a loss here.

Kentucky @ Georgia (-20.5): We’re pretty short Georgia. They inexplicably struggled with Kentucky last year and a repeat of that would be great.

James Madison (-19.5) @ Georgia State: We have two units on JMU to win the Sun Belt at +400- it’s around +110 now. They’ll be big favorites in several upcoming games, we need them to keep taking care of business.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama (-10.5): We’re long both teams- it’s not clear to me what result we’d prefer. A Vanderbilt win would certainly be funnier.

College Football Picks- Week 6 2025

Futures*: +5.13 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Week 5: -3.13 units

Season Total: +3.52 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week was mixed for my weekly picks- Syracuse had the doors blown off at home by Duke. Mississippi State, meanwhile, covered easily and lost in OT as a +285 ML underdog. Not the best week, but if that’s what counts as a down week, I’ll take it.

Colorado State @ San Diego State (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)

Colorado State is a low-key awful situation right now. Their only win is over FCS Northern Colorado, and they only won that game after being bailed out by the refs on an awful call to end the game. They got killed last week at home by a bad Washington State team.

San Diego State, meanwhile, is finally turning things around under HC Sean Lewis. They were uncharacteristically bad last year, but this is a program that recruits pretty well and has the talent to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. They should be a bigger favorite here.

San Diego State -6.5 -115 (1 unit)

Clemson @ North Carolina (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

In the preseason, I bet North Carolina under 3.5 wins bet at +1600. My thesis was that Bill Belichick might just give up on the Tar Heels if things start going poorly, and thus their downside tail was a lot fatter than other similar teams.

That thesis looks pretty strong now- the Tar Heels have been non-competitive in two games against P4 teams. It’s also worth noting that other college coaches are pretty annoyed with Belichick waltzing into their sport and pretending he knows how everything works. UCF kept the starters in for longer than you’d expect and I think that Dabo will do the same- CFB coaches feel disrespected by Belichick and want to run up the score on him.

Clemson -26.5 +346 (1 unit)

Syracuse @ SMU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Yes, it’s Syracuse again. I know I got killed betting on the Orange last week, but the thesis is a bit different this time. I don’t think backup QB Rickie Collins was that bad last week- he threw for 6.2 yards/attempt. The problem was that his receivers lost two fumbles and three trips inside the Duke 25 resulted in three points. Syracuse was the worse team, but fumble luck and red zone woes are pretty funky.

I think everyone is writing off Syracuse because they got blown out in the first game with the backup QB. I’m happy to buy another wing call on Syracuse as I think the market has overreacted on them.

Syracuse ML +470 (0.5 units)

College Football Futures Bets- Week 5 2025

Last week went well for my futures bets but nearly went very well. I marked in on North Texas longs and Oklahoma State shorts. I marked out a good bit on my Oklahoma longs with QB John Mateer’s injury- it’s not clear when he’ll be back.

New Bets

Indiana to make the Playoff +198 (3 units)

Indiana to win the Big Ten +1500 (1 unit)

I’ve been high on Indiana for some time- I bet them to make the playoff at +630 in the preseason. (Of course, I also had the Hoosiers to make the playoff at 30/1 last year). They’re up to fifth in my ratings after a dominating win over Illinois. It’s not just my computer that’s so high on them- they’re seventh in SP+ and sixth in FPI.

Based on that, it doesn’t make sense to me that they’re still +198 to make the playoff. They have to go to both Penn State and Oregon. They likely have to win one of those games to make the playoff- they’l be around a six point underdog in both. The Hoosiers’ ceiling is higher than it was last year.

Texas Tech to make the Playoff +205 (2 units)

Texas Tech to win the Big 12 +270 (1 unit)

Texas Tech was a pretty high volatility team in the preseason. The bull case on them was clear- they brought in the best transfer class in the country (especially on the lines), and their raw talent is the highest in the Big 12. The bear case on them was also clear- maybe all the big money transfers wouldn’t gel.

A month into the season, it looks pretty clear that we’re in the bull case. Texas Tech physically dominated Utah on the road last week- famously not an easy team to physically dominate! QB Behren Morton is hurt, but I think backup Will Hammond might be better. Texas Tech’s ceiling is very high given the talent on this roster and I’m buying the Red Raiders.

Miami to go undefeated +280 (2 units)

Miami’s bull case has also been clear. The Hurricanes have a ton of talent. EDGE Reuben Bain looks like the best defender in the country and is an easy top 10 pick in the NFL draft. QB Carson Beck has taken a big step forward- his 2024 struggles look more like a Mike Bobo problem than a Carson Beck problem.

Miami might drop a stupid game somewhere, because at the end of the day, this is still a Mario Cristobal team. But I like buying a wing call on the “Canes- they are so much more talented than the rest of the ACC and they might just dominate the rest of their schedule.

Memphis to go undefeated +550 (2 units)

You’ll notice a common theme in this article- Memphis also has money. They have the biggest NIL budget in the G5, thanks to the late FedEx founder Fred Smith. It shows on this roster- especially in the trenches. They ran for nearly 300 yards against an SEC defense last week when they played Arkansas. Memphis has a relatively easy schedule by AAC standards and might be able to bully teams to a 12-0 finish.

Ole Miss to make the Playoff +145 (1 unit)

I was a seller of Ole Miss in the preseason but I have flipped to becoming a buyer. The Rebels have played themselves into a QB controversy- Austin Simmons got hurt a few weeks ago and backup Trinidad Chambliss has been electric in his place. I think Ole Miss is in a good position no matter who plays going forwards, and their schedule is one of the easiest in the SEC. 10-2 will be enough to make the playoff and Ole Miss is a bit better than a coin flip to get there.

Michigan to make the Playoff +410 (1 unit)

Michigan’s season looked lost after the Oklahoma loss. Since then, they took care of Nebraska on the road (the close final score is misleading- they were the better team by far), and Oklahoma keeps looking better. Michigan still has tough games against USC, Washington and Ohio State. If they finish 10-2, they should get in. Now that they’re back in the teens in my ratings, that certainly looks possible.

Rooting Guide- Week 5

I’ve placed so many futures bets this year (nearly 100 now!) that keeping track of everything is tough. I’m now publishing a weekly rooting guide- so if you’ve been betting on my picks all year, you know what to pay attention to this weekend. These are roughly ordered by importance.

LSU @ Ole Miss (-1.5): We’re long Ole Miss and short LSU. Fun fact- Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss came from D2 Ferris State. LSU HC Brian Kelly got his start coaching at D2 Grand Valley State- Ferris State’s archival. A fun subplot to monitor for my fellow Michiganders.

Indiana (-8.5) @ Iowa: This line has steadily moved in Indiana’s favor all week as everyone catches up to how good the Hoosiers are.

Alabama @ Georgia (-2.5): We have Georgia to miss the playoff and Alabama to win the SEC. An Alabama win here might be a prerequisite for both.

South Alabama @ North Texas (-12.5): Our North Texas +3000 to make the playoff bet from last week is already +600 or so. We want them to keep winning.

Oregon @ Penn State (-3.5): I bet Penn State -4 in this game in the preseason. We have some more short exposure on Oregon as well.

San Jose State @ Stanford (-3): Our Stanford longs are nearly hopeless. We need them to win this to have any hope.

Duke (-4.5) @ Syracuse: We’re long some very far wing calls on Syracuse, we would need a win here to keep it alive.

Bowling Green @ Ohio (-7.5): We have Ohio to win the MAC and this is one of the biggest games on their schedule.

Ohio State (-8.5) @ Washington: We have Ohio State to go undefeated. This is one of the tougher games on their schedule- and the line has been dropping all week.

Western Kentucky (-4.5) @ Missouri State: We are synthetically short WKU from our bets on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. An upset here would be awesome.

TCU @ Arizona State (-3): We’re long both these teams but longer TCU.

Louisiana Tech (-3.5) @ UTEP: We have Louisiana Tech to win CUSA- they need to take care of business in games like this to do that.

Liberty @ Old Dominion (-14.5): We bought some wing calls on Old Dominion that look good. We need them to take care of business.

New Mexico State @ New Mexico (-14.5): We’re long New Mexico State and short New Mexico. An upset here would be awesome.

College Football Picks- Week 5 2025

Futures*: -2.39 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Season Total: -0.87 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week went well, but it could have gone much better. Both of the wing bets I did for half a unit (Tulsa ML and UCF -20.5) hit, while the one I had for a full unit (Miami -20.5) came very close as the Hurricanes won by 19. I also marked in a few units on my futures, mostly on Oklahoma State losing and North Texas winning.

Duke @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Syracuse pulled off a massive upset last week on the road against Clemson. Fran Brown is in his second year as Syracuse HC and it couldn’t be going much better- the Orange finished ranked in year 1 and look good in year 2.

Duke, meanwhile, beat NC State last week in a completely fraudulent win. NC State couldn’t stop turning the ball over and was the better team for most of the game.

Unfortunately, Syracuse QB Steve Angeli tore his Achilles against Clemson and is out for the season. Backup QB Rickie Collins steps in- he’s a former four star who was the backup at LSU before transferring to Syracuse. He has only 21 pass attempts in his career but he does have some recruit pedigree.

Syracuse has a solid roster and was physically more impressive than Clemson in the trenches. I like the Orange a good bit and am also buying some wing calls on them- there’s a chance Rickie Collins is just good, we simply don’t know yet.

Syracuse +6.5 -102 (2 units)

Syracuse ML +198 (1 unit)

Syracuse to make the ACC title game 30/1 (0.5 units)

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)

I expected Mississippi State to be awful this year. They were my clear pick for the basement of the SEC in the preseason. They have proved me wrong with a nice win over Arizona State and a dominating road win against a decent Southern Miss team.

The whole SEC is a lot more clustered together than people realize. There’s really not many matchups in this league where one team should be a double digit road favorite- 14/16 SEC teams are between 7th and 35th in my ratings. Mississippi State has the talent to hang in this game at home. This year’s Tennessee team also does not have the explosive offense to blow the doors off people the way the Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker teams did.

Mississippi State +10.5 -115 (1 unit)

Mississippi State ML +285 (1 unit)