Way-Too-Early 2025 College Football Top 25
With the national championship game now firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to turn our attention towards the 2025 college football season. A way too early top 25 is always an exercise in guesswork, as we still have the spring portal window and probably a coaching change or two before rosters get finalized. Still, I got a decent amount of stuff correct in last year's version of this list. I had SMU higher than pretty much any other list. I also had Florida State and Ole Miss lower than anyone else. While there were some misses (I’m still perplexed as to how Arizona regressed so much in 2024), I would say I overall did well. Hopefully we can look back at this list in a year’s time as fondly.
Top 25
1. Ohio State
Most teams at the top of this list will be breaking in new quarterbacks, but only one of them has Jeremiah Smith. Smith is such a game-breaking weapon that he alone makes me want to rank Ohio State #1. Ohio State will also have the best defensive player in the sport in Caleb Downs. I think that 5 star Julian Sayin will win the job here and he will have the most talented roster in the sport at his disposal.
2. Texas
Of all the quarterbacks at the top of this list, Arch Manning figures to be the best. Texas loses a lot to the draft, but Sark has stacked up enough top classes that they have plenty of replacements waiting in the wings. That statement also holds for the next few teams on this list, but they don’t have Arch. Texas opens the season at Ohio State on August 30th and I think that should be a #1 vs. #2 matchup.
3. Oregon
Oregon has the recruiting and NIL apparatus to have a top five roster in the sport every year. Evan Stewart is probably the best receiver in the sport not named Jeremiah Smith, and the Ducks should have the best front seven in the country. I’m pretty excited for Dante Moore to take the reins at QB, we saw flashes of his immense talent at UCLA in 2023 and he had all of 2024 to learn from Dillon Gabriel and develop.
4. Penn State
I have seen Penn State higher than this on most other lists, but I don’t believe in Drew Allar enough to put them in the top 3. They’ll have the best running game in the sport with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both returning, but I expect them to be pretty one dimensional offensively. As usual, that will be enough to get them to 10-2 and a playoff bid before they have to face the best of the best.
5. Georgia
Georgia was quite far from their usual standard in 2024. It says a lot about what Kirby Smart has done that an SEC title and playoff quarterfinal is “far from the usual standard”, but this was unquestionably the weakest Georgia team since 2020. I liked what I saw from Gunner Stockton at the end of the season and think Georgia’s throwing game will be significantly improved next year. I believe in Kirby and the recruiting enough that I can’t put the ‘Dawgs outside the top 5.
6. Notre Dame
I think that 5 star CJ Carr will probably win the QB job here, and he can do a bit more with his arm than Riley Leonard could. He may not need to, though. Jeremiyah Love might be the best returning RB in the country and the Irish are better in the trenches than every team they’ll play in the regular season. Notre Dame’s talent level is not quite at the tier of those above them on this list, but they are closing that gap.
7. Clemson
I’m an avowed Clemson hater, but even I have to admit that the Tigers should be pretty good next year. Cade Klubnik might be the best returning QB starter in the country, and Dabo has finally started bringing a few players in via the portal. Their talent acquisition is still a bit behind the teams above them on this list, but they are still the ACC favorites.
8. Alabama
Alabama has too much talent on their roster to fall lower than this. People have forgotten how awesome Ryan Williams is because Alabama faltered down the stretch, but he will be a monstrous weapon for whoever wins the QB job in Tuscaloosa. I think there’s a clear drop from the Crimson Tide to the rest of the list.
9. Kansas State
After the top 8 teams, I’m happy to take a flyer on some other teams. Kansas State is a perfect pick- they were much better than their 9-4 record in 2024 and return an excellent QB in Avery Johnson and an excellent RB in Dylan Edwards. Roster data is still fluid, but as of now it looks like they’ll have the most talented roster in the Big 12 supporting those two. They’re my pick to win the conference.
10. Louisville
2024 was the second year in a row that no one really noticed how good Louisville was. They only went 9-4 (partially thanks to a mind-bendingly stupid loss to Stanford) but looked excellent at times. I think they’re upgrading significantly at QB- USC was stupid to run Miller Moss out of town, and Louisville was very fortunate to grab him in the portal. I’ll slot the Cardinals in for an at-large berth in the playoff.
11. Florida
There’s one reason to be bullish on the Gators in 2025: DJ Lagway. He is a dynamite playmaker and only figures to get better with a handful of college starts under his belt. The schedule is brutal once again, but Florida played like a top 10 team in the country down the stretch and I think that form can continue into 2025.
12. South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers is a top 5 returning starter at QB in the country. The Gamecocks lost a lot around him (Kyle Kennard, Rocket Sanders etc.) but did well to hold onto their players who had eligibility remaining. Sellers alone should be enough to keep South Carolina in the playoff mix once again in 2025.
13. LSU
QB Garrett Nussmeier is the second favorite for the Heisman behind Arch Manning, but I’m a bit concerned about the rest of the offense. LSU has to replace two phenomenal tackles including a projected top 10 pick in Will Campbell. They also have a brutally difficult schedule, starting off the season with a road trip to Clemson before a full SEC slate. I will go against the consensus and pick them to miss the playoff.
14. SMU
Kevin Jennings may have been awful against Penn State, but he was excellent before that and he returns at QB. The rest of the roster is still not really up to the level of the teams above them on this list, but the Mustangs should have top 10 QB play in the country and that is enough to put them squarely in the ACC conversation.
15. Baylor
We’ve entered the part of the list where this becomes a bit of a dart throwing exercise. If I’m going to throw a dart on a team, I’d like it to be a team with a QB I like. Sawyer Robertson took over after Dequann Finn was benched and Baylor looked like a new team with him under center. The Bears start the season with two good teams in Auburn and SMU- if they win those, they’ll be the team to beat in Big 12 play.
16. Tennessee
Tennessee is the rare team on this list who I expect to get worse in 2025 despite returning their QB. Nico Iamaleava is back, but everything else that made this team great is not. The offensive line will undergo significant turnover and every wide receiver of note is gone. It would be a significant achievement for Josh Heupel to get his team back in the playoff.
17. Indiana
Out goes one transfer QB, in comes another. As a Cal fan, I saw a lot of Fernando Mendoza last year and I am quite bullish on him. He headlines another stellar portal class in Bloomington and he will have a fantastic receiver to throw to in Elijah Sarratt. The schedule (at Oregon, at Penn State) is not as kind as it was in 2024 but a return trip to the playoff is a distinct possibility.
18. Oklahoma
Oklahoma has not fired a coach in my lifetime. If they do not show significant improvement in 2025, that will change as patience is wearing thin for Brent Venbales. I like their chances to get back in the top 25- I am a big believer in new QB John Mateer and the Sooners still have a much higher talent level than most teams in this section of the rankings. However, it’s do or die this year.
19. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is extremely lucky to have QB Haynes King coming back to school for another year. His physical style was a great fit for this Georgia Tech team that finished the year in the top 25 of my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade. They’ll be underdogs against Clemson and Georgia, but I think they’re better than the other 10 teams on their schedule.
20. Auburn
Good news, Auburn fans- Payton Thorne is gone. As a Michigan State fan I was amazed to see how much he regressed over the course of his career. Jackson Arnold will be the starter here after transferring in from Oklahoma. Improved QB play and improved close game luck (Auburn was legendarily bad in this department in 2024) should see Auburn in a bowl in 2025.
21. Texas A&M
This is about as low as I can reasonably put a team with top 15 talent and a returning QB. However, Texas A&M’s front seven is going to go from being a significant asset to a significant detriment with 3 early round NFL draft picks departing. Their offense is going to be great (WR KC Concepcion was a great portal addition) but the defense is going to be a sieve.
22. Arizona State
Arizona State was excellent at the end of the year but took a bit of time to get going. They’re going to have to be more of a passing team next year with Cam Skattebo departing, but they should be able to do that with Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson back. I don’t have them as my top Big 12 contender (their roster is not as strong as Kansas State and Baylor), but they are in the conversation to repeat as conference champs.
23. Ole Miss
This is by far the biggest drop of any team on the list. Ole Miss loses an obscene amount of talent- they figure to have six or seven players drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft. Unlike the Ohio States and Georgias of the world, they don’t have several years of top 5 classes waiting in the wings to replace them. They should still be a bowl team in 2025, but I think they missed their window for a deep run in 2024.
24. Kansas
Somehow, Jalon Daniels has another year of eligibility. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in college football. The Jayhawks played like a top 15 team in the second half of the season once he got back to full speed. They should be a contender in a crowded Big 12.
25. Michigan
Michigan loses a ton to the draft with every main contributor to their 2023 national title team out the door. Michigan will be young and talented- both at QB (where I expect Bryce Underwood to start as a true freshman) but also elsewhere on the roster. 2025 figures to be a year to build towards being a prime contender again in 2026.
Also Considered: Duke, Miami, Missouri, BYU, Illinois, USC, Arizona, TCU, Utah, Virginia Tech, UNLV, Arkansas, Boise State
Projected Playoff
1 Ohio State
2 Texas
3 Clemson
4 Kansas State
5 Oregon vs. 12 UNLV
6 Penn State vs. 11 Florida
7 Georgia vs. 10 Louisville
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama
The general structure of this playoff looks pretty familiar- 4 SEC teams, 3 Big 10 teams, 2 ACC teams, Notre Dame, 1 Big 12 team and 1 Group of Five team. The only team here that I didn’t cover above is UNLV- there’s not a clear front runner for the top G5 team in 2025, but I’ll throw my hat in the ring for the Rebels. While they do bring in a new coaching staff, Dan Mullen is one of the most talented offensive minds in the sport and I am incredibly excited to see what transfer QB Alex Orji can do in his offense.