College Football Ratings: Week 1 2022
In addition to my weekly picks this year, I’m also going to post my model’s ratings each week along with some commentary about them. I did this back in 2019 and 2020, but I only published my top 25. This year, in addition to publishing my top 25, I’ll also highlight which teams are rising and falling in my ratings.
Top 25
The number in parenthesis indicates a team’s ranking movement since last week.
Georgia
Alabama
Ohio State
Michigan (+3)
Oklahoma (+6)
Mississippi State (+6)
Tennessee (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
BYU (+6)
NC State (-5)
Texas A&M (-2)
Utah (-8)
Cincinnati (+1)
Arkansas (-1)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Wisconsin
Oregon State (+3)
Miami (+10)
Purdue (+3)
UCLA (+3)
Pittsburgh
Ole Miss (+10)
Minnesota (+2)
Clemson (-7)
Arizona State (-6)
I was really impressed with Mississippi State in week 1 as they trucked a good Memphis team. Spots 4 through 30 are still very fluid in my ratings so the Bulldogs were able to rise all the way from 12th to 6th. BYU demolished South Florida and could present an interesting case for the playoff committee. The Broncos have games against Arkansas, Baylor, Notre Dame and Boise State, among others. If they do run the table they have the schedule strength to make the playoff. Oregon State had a fantastic win at home against Boise State and looks like they might be the best team in the Pac-12 North.
Moving Up
This list is heavy on teams that I bet against last week who proved me wrong. Most notable among them is Florida (60th → 38th) who beat Utah at home. I don’t have the Gators jumping up nearly as much as the AP Poll (which has them 12th) and I make them a 4 point favorite at home against Kentucky this week. Other than Georgia, I was much lower on the SEC East than the consensus this preseason and South Carolina (49th → 32nd) is another team that proved me wrong in week 1. The Gamecocks have a huge pair of games coming up with a trip to Arkansas and a visit from Georgia in the next two weeks, a split would be a great result.
I also bet against SMU (54th → 33rd) and they demolished North Texas on the road. I have the Mustangs second in the American now behind Cincinnati. James Madison (92nd → 75th) played their first game as an FBS member and absolutely pulverized Middle Tennessee. I was shocked to see Syracuse (44th → 29th) knocking on the door of my top 25. The Orange demolished Louisville as a 3.5 point home underdog, time will tell whether Syracuse is unexpectedly good, Louisville is unexpectedly bad, or both.
Moving Down
Unsurprisingly, a lot of the teams on this list lost to teams in the moving up section. Georgia State (30th → 50th), Louisville (27th → 46th) and North Texas (65th → 83rd) all fit the bill. More interesting to me is Iowa (38th → 54th) who beat South Dakota State in a horrific 7-3 game. I was already low on Iowa’s offense but even I was surprised by how awful it was. The Hawkeyes host Iowa State this week and I make them a 6 point favorite, you may not be able to set a total low enough on that game.