College Football Preseason Bets

With football season coming up around the corner, it’s time for my favorite betting opportunity of the year- college football win totals. College football is the only sport that I know well enough to bet profitably, and I think there is the most money to be made early in the season. By the latter half of the season, most models agree about the relative strength of various teams, and you’re unlikely to see any big discrepancies between my model and the Vegas line. 

While there’s not much edge to be had in the back half of college football season, the beginning of the season is a totally different story. No one knows how to price teams at the beginning of the season, as college football rosters are so big that backing out the value of individual players (beyond quarterbacks) is practically impossible. 

This season figures to be particularly hard to price. The NCAA has ruled that the 2020 season does not count to a player’s four years of college eligibility. As a result, the sport as a whole is significantly more experienced than it normally is- the average FBS roster is about 0.7 years more experienced than in a normal year. Any model which is calibrated on past years’ returning production data is going to have to make significant adjustments this year.

Connecticut Over 2 -125 (8 units)

I will admit that I am scraping the bottom of the barrel here betting on UConn. Everyone agrees that they’re one of the ten worst teams in FBS, I am just betting their over because I think they’re bottom ten, but not bottom five. The Huskies are one of three teams that cancelled their 2020 season because of COVID which makes them especially hard to price. 

There’s a ton of turnover on this roster given the year off, but even using a conservative guess of how much experience is on this team, I still like the over. They have two games against FCS teams in Holy Cross and Yale, both of which they should win. They also will be road favorites at UMass and play two other sub-100 teams in Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee. 

Duke Under 3.5 +125 (6 units)

David Cutcliffe has done a great job in his time at Duke, but last year’s team was possibly the worst of his entire tenure. The Blue Devils went 2-9 and were a complete disaster on defense, allowing 38 points or more in half their games, largely to subpar opposition. My numbers rated them as the worst defensive team in the entire Power Five last year.

While the defense has nowhere to go but up, the offense will press the reset button. Duke returns 54% of their offensive production. That figure is low in normal years, and extremely low this year given how experienced the sport as a whole will be. 

Duke will be favored in three games this year- Kansas, NC A&T and Charlotte. None of the three are easy wins, they’ll likely be single digit favorites in all three. They figure to be at least two touchdown underdogs in every other game, except possibly Georgia Tech.

Michigan Under 7.5 -110 (6 units)

Michigan was a complete disaster last year, going 2-4. To make matters worse, one of the wins was in 3OT against Rutgers, and they were only competitive in one of the four losses. They finished the year 62nd in my ratings, right in the middle of the 130 team pack. 

Michigan has recruited at a high enough level that there’s decent talent on this roster, so some improvement is definitely expected from last year. But a win total of 7.5 with this schedule implies Michigan is around the 25th best team in the country. Going from 60th to 25th with no clear answer at quarterback and a middling amount of returning experience is a pretty tough combination, so I like the under on the Wolverines.

BYU Over 7 -115 (4 units)

BYU was the biggest surprise of the 2020 college football season, going 11-1 and demolishing most opponents on a pretty soft schedule. Plenty of teams rack up wins against bad teams without actually being that good, but the Cougars’ underlying fundamentals were quite solid. Last year’s squad finished 8th in my ratings.

BYU will not come close to last year’s Zach Wilson-led heights, and plays a tougher schedule that features 7 Power Five opponents plus Boise State. Still, for them to go under 6 wins would mean they’re around the 60th best team in the sport. There’s almost no track record of teams falling from top 10 to outside the top 50, even with a generational quarterback leaving. I feel confident BYU can put together a solid season and make their way to a bowl.

Boise State Under 9 -115 (3 units)

After 7 successful years in Boise, Bryan Harsin left for Auburn over the offseason. Andy Avalos takes over a veteran team that fell to San Jose State in last year’s Mountain West title game. 

The Broncos are once again the consensus pick to win the conference, and while I think they are the best team in the Mountain West, others are not far behind. The MWC is the most experienced conference in the sport, and Wyoming, Nevada and San Jose State are all in my preseason top 50 as well. Add in tough non conference games against Oklahoma State and UCF, and I have a tough time seeing Boise State getting to double digit wins.

Houston Under 8.5 -120 (3 units)

It’s been quite an odd two years for Dana Holgersen at Houston. The Cougars redshirted a ton of players in 2019 before getting hit hard by COVID last year, so the program has not been up to its usual standard set under Kevin Sumlin and Tom Herman. Last year’s team limped to a 3-5 finish that was capped by a loss to a bad Hawaii team.

This year’s squad will certainly be better, and will be helped by a light non-conference slate where the Cougars will be favored in all four games. Still, the middle of the American is better than most give it credit for, and I’m hesitant to say this team can win nine games.

East Carolina Over 5 -130 (2 units)

East Carolina was one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Since being ranked in the first CFP poll in 2014, it’s been a rapid slide for the program with six consecutive losing seasons. I think that that streak ends this year. The Pirates return every contributor of note on offense, and rate a fantastic 91% in returning experience.

There are three teams who are clearly at the bottom of the AAC (Navy, Temple and USF) and ECU gets to play them all. Add in an FCS game and the Pirates should be double digit favorites in four games. I am actually going to favor them over South Carolina in week 2, and there’s a few winnable conference games on the schedule as well.

Rice Over 5.5 -125 (2 units)

Rice was hit harder than almost any other team last year with COVID, playing only five games and waiting a month between games two and three. In the limited amount they played, I actually liked what I saw last year from the Owls. They pulled the most shocking result of the season when they beat undefeated Marshall 20-0 on the road in Huntington.

Rice figures to be improved on the defensive side of the ball and has the most talented quarterback the program has seen in years in Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffrey. A tough non-conference slate that features 3 former SWC foes caps their upside, but this is undoubtedly a team with a pulse. There are enough teams without a pulse in Conference USA that they should be able to rack up six wins.

South Carolina Under 3.5 +135 (2 units)

South Carolina was a dumpster fire last year, and Will Muschamp got a well-deserved firing in November. Shane Beamer inherits a complete disaster that is at least three or four years away from being a respectable SEC program. Tons of players transferred out in the offseason making this the least experienced roster in the conference.

The only thing the Gamecocks have going for them is that they’ve recruited at a decent level, so there’s a handful of four stars on the roster. They will be two touchdown underdogs in at least six games and figure to be underdogs when Troy comes to town on October 2nd. I think people are pricing in too much mean regression for the Gamecocks, this team is by far the worst in the SEC not named Vanderbilt.

Here are some other picks I like for smaller size. Some of these are Power Five teams where the amount of talent on the roster is overestimated, like Florida State and Oregon. Others are Group of Five teams with lots of returning experience and soft schedules.

Florida State Under 5.5 +105 (1 unit)
Hawaii Over 7 +125 (1 unit)

Arkansas Under 5.5 -115 (1 unit)

Louisville Over 6.5 -115 (1 unit)

Georgia State Over 5 -120 (1 unit)

Oregon Under 9 -115 (1 unit)

Kent State Over 5.5 +115 (1 unit)

Northwestern Over 6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Iowa to win Big Ten +950 (0.5 units)

Wyoming to win Mountain West +725 (0.5 units)