College Football Picks Week 7
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Season Total: -19.86 units
Last week was great as I hit all four picks. I got pretty lucky to win North Texas +19, they were down three scores for most of the game before covering in garbage time. I was probably due for some luck given how the rest of the season has been so far, though.
Texas A&M @ Missouri (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
Texas A&M pulled off the win of the season last week against Alabama and is actually back in the top ten of my ratings. My dislike for Missouri is well-documented: I have bet against the Tigers three times this year (against Central Michigan, Boston College and North Texas) and they have failed to cover all three times. A&M has run hot and cold so far this season, but I am pretty shocked that they are only a single digit favorite here.
Texas A&M -9 -110 (3 units)
Clemson @ Syracuse (Friday, 6:00 PM Central)
We’ve now reached the point of the year where preseason ratings have been completely flushed from my model. No team was hurt more by this than Clemson, who now falls just outside my top 25. Admittedly, the Tigers have played 2 of the ACC’s stronger teams in Boston College and NC State, but they still have done very little all season. Syracuse is much stronger than their record suggests, they deserved to beat Wake Forest last week. They also beat Liberty at home already, who is around as good as Clemson is.
Syracuse +14 -110 (2 units)
Syracuse ML +450 (1 unit)
Alabama @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
Alabama fell to #3 in my ratings (behind Georgia and Ohio State) after their loss to Texas A&M last weekend. Mississippi State has had a weird 3-2 start to the season where they have won their two toughest games (NC State and Texas A&M) and struggled in their three easier games. Still, those wins carry enough credit that I have the Bulldogs just inside my top 25. Alabama showed their first sign of vulnerability last week and I think they could struggle a bit with Mississippi State.
Mississippi State +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Mississippi State ML +600 (0.5 units)
Marshall @ North Texas (Friday, 6:00 PM Central)
North Texas is receiving the very rare honor of me betting on them one week and betting against them the next week. They are still a mid to low tier CUSA team playing one of the best teams in the conference. Marshall had a strange loss to MTSU a few weeks ago, but I liked what I saw from them against Applachian State. They remain my co-favorites to win the league alongside UTSA and UAB, and I think they should be at least two touchdown favorites here.
Marshall -11 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse ML/Mississippi State ML +3645 (0.1 units)