College Football Picks Week 3 2023
FIU saved me from another disaster last week, I lost every pick except them. The Golden Panthers have been my most profitable team this year, covering and nearly winning outright in week 0 before winning as a +390 dog last week. I have a bit of a smaller card this week, hopefully I’ll see more opportunities once conference play starts up later in September.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Total: -9.38 units
Wake Forest @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- Sam Hartman was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last year and they’re just not the same team without him. Old Dominion really impressed me last week against Louisiana, and the Monarchs have upset ACC teams at home in the past (loyal readers may remember I had ODU ML last year against Virginia Tech). I think they have a chance to do so again here against a mediocre Wake Forest squad.
Old Dominion +14 -112 (3 units)
Old Dominion ML +440 (1 unit)
Penn State @ Illinois (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’m a lot lower on Penn State than other projection systems- I have the Nittany Lions down at 13th while SP+ has them at 4th. I’m also higher on Illinois than most people- I think the Illini grade out as a top half team in the Big Ten and a solid contender for the Big Ten West. It should be no surprise then that I like Illinois here- I view their loss to Kansas last week more as Jalon Daniels’ brilliance than a flaw in the normally sound Illini defense. They’ve had Penn State’s number recently and I think they have a real chance at pulling the first huge upset of the season in the Big Ten.
Illinois +14 +100 (3 units)
Illinois ML +430 (1 unit)
James Madison @ Troy (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I bet against Troy in my preseason bets and am continuing to do so here. James Madison is a top 10 Group of Five team in the country and I think actually underperformed last weekend in a road win against Virginia. Troy was not competitive in a loss against a solid Kansas State team. I think JMU is the better team and a win for the Dukes here would also help my Troy under 8 wins ticket.
James Madison +2 -110 (1 unit)
Northwestern @ Duke (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
After Northwestern got run off the field by Rutgers in week 1 I was worried they might go 0-12. They were a pick’em last week at home against UTEP but were one of the surprises of the week, winning 38-7. They lost a lot of players to the portal when Pat Fitzgerald was let go in July but I think the market may have overreacted a bit, they’re certainly not a good team, but Duke does not have the talent on their roster to be a three score favorite against almost any power conference team.
Northwestern +18 -110 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
It’s great that these two teams are playing regularly again, the Backyard Brawl is one of the great college football rivalries that has been cut short by realignment. Pitt was an abject disaster last week against Cincinnati as it appears Pat Narduzzi has sent his offense back to the pre-Kenny Pickett stone age. West Virginia was more competitive than the score would suggest against Penn State and may actually get to a bowl game to save Neal Brown’s job.
West Virginia +1 -110 (1 unit)