College Football Picks Week 13
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
Week 12: -1.18 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -13.97 units
I had my first negative week in a month last week, mainly caused by South Alabama failing to cover against Tennessee. The Vols look like easily the second best team in the SEC East and are now in the top 20 of my ratings.
Kentucky @ Louisville
I’ve been betting against the SEC East all year and I’m going to continue to do so here. Louisville has put together quite a nice season, and have actually cracked the top 25 of my ratings for the first time in a few years. Kentucky was nowhere near as good as their top 10 ranking earlier in the year and their defense has slipped a lot in the last month.
Louisville -3 -110 (2 units)
Iowa @ Nebraska
2021 Nebraska is going to go down as one of the strangest college football seasons in recent memory. The Cornhuskers are 3-7 and in the top 25 of my ratings, along with many other predictive metrics. I’m still pretty bearish on Iowa as a lot of their early success was fueled by turnovers, I think Nebraska is a slightly better team and should be favored here.
Nebraska +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Penn State @ Michigan State
Penn State’s season has pretty rapidly fallen off the rails, highlighted by their 9OT loss to Illinois. They now have no shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, but they’re still the 12th or so best team in college football. The same cannot be said for Michigan State, who got completely exposed by Ohio State and should be 7-4, not 9-2. My model likes betting against teams who just got blown out and I’m doing so here.
Penn State -1 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame @ Stanford
Stanford has had a strange season where they knocked off Oregon in overtime and have done nothing of consequence since. Notre Dame has moved up to 8th in my ratings after a dominant win over Georgia Tech. Notre Dame has shown they can blow out bad teams and I expect them to do so here.
Notre Dame -19 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Oregon
I’ve been pretty high on Oregon State all season, they rose up to the top 15 in my ratings back in late October. The predictive metrics have been low on Oregon all year and last week we saw why when they got waxed by Utah. These teams are pretty close to even, and Oregon State can actually win the Pac-12 North if they win this game and Washington wins the Apple Cup.
Oregon State +7 -110 (1 unit)