College Football Picks Week 1

Week 0: -1.5 units

Last week was just the appetizer, the main course of college football begins this weekend. Notre Dame @ Ohio State is the headline matchup but there are loads of interesting games across the country this weekend.

Utah @ Florida (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

This is another pick that runs in tandem with my preseason bets. I bet Utah to win the Pac-12 at +240 and also bet Florida under 7 wins. Utah solidly belongs in the second tier of teams this year, far behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia but on par with the likes of Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Florida has a great QB in Anthony Richardson but the rest of their skill talent is quite a bit worse than Utah’s which is a bit shocking given the Gators’ usual recruiting standard.

Utah -2.5 -115 (4 units)

Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (Friday, 6 PM Central)

When these teams met here four years ago, Virginia Tech was ranked 13th in the country and was a 27.5 point favorite. Shockingly, Old Dominion pulled the upset in what was their biggest win in program history. I’m pretty high on the Monarchs this year and fancy their chances of pulling another upset here. Old Dominion finished last year in the top 100 of my ratings for the first time in five years and brings back 17 starters from that team. Virginia Tech had their worst team in decades last year. I think first year HC Brent Pry will get it rolling in Blacksburg at some point but this is a tricky road game against a team that can’t be underestimated.

Old Dominion +7.5 -110 (3 units)

Old Dominion ML +230 (1 unit)

Illinois @ Indiana (Friday, 7 PM Central)

The Big Ten has scheduled two conference matchups for week 1, and I think both this one and the other (Purdue/Penn State) will be very informative in how the conference shakes out. Illinois took care of business in week 0 against an alright team in Wyoming. Indiana went 2-10 last year and brings in an entirely new offense. I think Indiana is actually the worst team in the Big Ten this year and think Illinois should be a small favorite in this one.

Illinois +3 -110 (3 units)

SMU @ North Texas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I’m normally able to predict where lines are going to open for most games pretty well, but I was way off on this one. SMU and North Texas are both pegged as 7 win teams in my model, pretty in line with the market consensus. SMU certainly plays in a tougher conference (although they’ll both be in the American starting next year) but I was floored when I saw they were a double digit favorite. North Texas was quite solid in week 0 against UTEP and this line should be a bit under a touchdown.

North Texas +11.5 -110 (2 units)

North Texas ML +310 (1 unit) 

Texas State @ Nevada (Saturday, 4:30 PM Central)

These are two teams that have stretched the fabric of college football as we know it. Texas State has the strangest roster in FBS, as they have completely abandoned recruiting high school players and have built an entire team out of the transfer portal. Meanwhile, Nevada has no one left on their roster after coach Jay Norvell left for conference rival Colorado State and took every player of note with him. The Wolfpack have set record lows for returning experience for a team in my model’s history. Texas State is a weird team, but a known quantity. I don’t think people realize how low the talent level on Nevada’s roster is, there are maybe two dozen FCS teams with better players.

Texas State +1 -110 (3 units)

Georgia State @ South Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

Georgia State is one of my sleeper teams in the Group of Five this year as I highlighted in my G5 preview. The Panthers return an above average amount of talent from a team that finished last year in the 50s in my ratings. South Carolina will clearly be much improved with new QB Spencer Rattler transferring in from Oklahoma, but I expect this game to play out like Georgia State’s opener last year where they nearly knocked off Auburn on the road.

Georgia State +12.5 -105 (2 units)

Georgia State ML +370 (1 unit)

Temple @ Duke (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)

This game is going to be completely unwatchable, as both Temple and Duke will be the worst team in their respective conferences this year. However, unwatchable doesn’t mean lack of gambling opportunity, and I like a play on Temple here. Last year’s Duke team was exceptionally terrible and this year’s team returns very little experience. Longtime HC David Cutcliffe clearly saw the writing on the wall and stepped down in the offseason. Temple has a real QB in former Georgia Bulldog D’Wan Mathis and actually beat a team with a pulse last year, something Duke was not able to do.

Temple +7 -110 (1 unit)

Temple ML +220 (1 unit)

UTEP @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I was high on UTEP in the preseason as I bet them over 5.5 wins and also put a speculative wager on them to win Conference USA at 20/1 odds. They were a bit disappointing in losing to North Texas in week 0 but I am high on the Mean Green as well and nearly bet their win total over. Oklahoma checks in at #11 in my preseason ratings, but UTEP has enough of a pulse that they should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.

UTEP +30.5 -110 (2 units)

Rice @ USC (Saturday, 5 PM Central)

If you read my preseason win totals, this won’t surprise you as I am very low on USC. I don’t really have an opinion on Rice, I am aligned with the market in seeing them as a 3-9 team that is about 10th from bottom in FBS. However, I am looking to put on short USC exposure everywhere I can.

Rice +32.5 -110 (1 unit)

Western Michigan @ Michigan State (Friday, 6 PM Central)

Western Michigan has not made the MAC title game since their magical 2016 season when Corey Davis was playing for the Broncos. It’s a bit unlucky for WMU, who have consistently been one of the MAC’s top teams during that time. They might have the most talented roster in the MAC and they open the year 82nd in my ratings. As a Michigan State fan I can acknowledge that the Spartans were very lucky to win 11 games last year and their underlying fundamentals were of an 8 win team. I’m a bit high on WMU and a bit low on MSU so I like a play on the Broncos here.

Western Michigan +23 -110 (1 unit)

Just for fun I’m going to be parlaying my moneyline underdog plays once again this season. None of these worked out last year, but I would’ve hit a juicy parlay or two back in 2019 and 2020 if I was playing all my ML dogs like this back then.

Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML +1451 (0.2 units)

Old Dominion ML/North Texas ML +1253 (0.2 units)

Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +1827 (0.2 units)

Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +6259 (0.1 units)

Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML/Temple ML +20249 (0.1 units)