2022 College Football Preview: 2022’s 10 Most Intriguing Group of Five Teams
With college football season now only five weeks away, I want to start my season preview series by looking at 10 of the most interesting teams from the Group of Five. For the uninitiated, this moniker refers to FBS’ 5 conferences that lack a major bowl tie-in— the American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA and the MAC. Even within this basket of leagues there is significant variety, with CUSA hanging onto big-time football by a thread while the Sun Belt is a deep and fascinating league.
American
Houston has always had ambitions to be a Power Five program. Their wish will be granted next year when they, along with Cincinnati and UCF, leave this league for the Big 12. They certainly have the roster of a major conference team, especially in the front seven. Their season starts with a fascinating road trip against UTSA and Texas Tech. If they get through those two games, they should be favored in every remaining game as they avoid Cincinnati and UCF. Houston looks more like a 9-3 team to me than the fringe playoff contender some are calling them, but this is a team on the rise that could find themselves in a New Year’s Day bowl.
I have always had a soft spot for East Carolina. As I was coming of age as a football fan, they were routinely picking off ACC teams like Virginia Tech and NC State. Unfortunately, the 2010s were less kind to this program than the 2000s were, punctuated by the senseless firing of Ruffin McNeil which led to Lincoln Riley leaving the program. Things are now looking up once again for the Pirates as they return 15 starters from last year’s 7-5 team. The American will be going under big changes in the coming years, and a good season this year will set ECU up to be the top dog of the new league.
Sun Belt
There is a saying in political circles that “demography is destiny”, as politicians always have to think about what the future of their electorate looks like. This holds equally true in college football, and you’d be hard pressed to find a better example than Georgia State. The Panthers represent a rapidly growing university in a rapidly growing state, and thus have found quick success since starting their football program in 2010. Georgia State beat Tennessee in 2019 and had Auburn on the ropes in Jordan-Hare last year. They return 15 starters including senior QB Darren Graniger, and the fruits of years of recruiting Atlanta have borne out as there is talent up and down the roster. The season opens with a pair of games against South Carolina and North Carolina, and I expect GSU to come out of it with at least a split. They are set up for their best team in program history and I project them at 8-4.
While also in the state of Georgia, rural Georgia Southern is a world away from Georgia State’s downtown Atlanta campus. The Eagles have a proud history with 6 national championships at the FCS level, and moved up to FBS ball in 2014. They are abandoning their usual triple option attack this year after firing coach Chad Lunsford, hiring Clay Helton from USC who will bring in a more traditional offense. I have no clue what to expect from the Eagles this year- Los Angeles to Statesboro, GA is a massive culture change for Coach Helton and moving away from the option is not trivial from a personnel perspective. My ratings call for a 5-7 season but anything from 2 to 8 wins wouldn’t shock me as this program gets a complete facelift.
Mountain West
Air Force has been the best team in college football the last few years that no one talks about, they are 24-8 in the last 3 years. Like the other service academies, the Falcons run a triple option offense due to academy weight restrictions for their offensive linemen. I’m bullish on Air Force this year because they’re experienced for a service academy team and return a great option QB in Haaziq Daniels and 4 offensive linemen. I project Air Force for a 9-3 season and think they have a good chance at their first conference title since 1998.
I don’t think there are many football programs that have been more poorly managed this millennium than Colorado State. The potential of this job is obvious- similar to Georgia State, the Rams play in a rapidly growing metro area with plenty of football talent around. They shelled out for a new stadium a few years ago and opened up the checkbook once again to poach new head coach Jay Norvell from rival Nevada this past offseason. CSU was unlucky to go 3-9 last year and Norvell brings tons of players from Nevada including his QB. I think the Rams look like a 6-6 team this year but as conference realignment continues the pressure is on this program to prove they can compete at the highest level.
Conference USA
There may not have been a more fun team in college football last year than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers imported QB Bailey Zappe, WR Jerreth Stearns and OC Zach Kittley from FCS Houston Baptist and rode the trio to a 9-5 season and a CUSA East title. I got to see them in person against Indiana in September and was very impressed with Zappe in particular. This is the last year of Conference USA existing in its current iteration before 6 teams depart for the American in 2023 and some new teams arrive. WKU is by far the strongest program of the teams remaining in the league, and if they want to become the power of the new CUSA this is the year for them to assert that status. I project them for a 9-4 season, similar to last year.
There is not an FBS program who has experienced a bigger fall from grace recently than Florida International. The Panthers moved up to FBS alongside archrival Florida Atlantic over a decade ago, and have now fallen far behind. FIU is 1-16 in the last two years and finished last year as the second worst team in the country in my metrics. There is not much hope for improvement this year as I project them to be the worst team in the country by a decent margin, with 1-11 being the most likely scenario. I’m intrigued by FIU because it’s not clear to me where this program goes next- the recent past has been so bad that there’s an argument for them to drop football. At the same time, they are right in the heart of Miami so it is easy to see their long term potential if managed properly.
MAC
The MAC has the most parity of any FBS conference in the country. However, if I had to pick the one team with the potential to dominate the league over the 2020s, it would be Toledo. The Rockets always recruit near the top of the league and have more money than most of their competitors. It shows on this year’s roster, as they will have better line play than the bottom half of the Big Ten this year. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s been 4 years since Toledo won the MAC West, but they are my clear pick to win the league this year.
On the other end of the MAC is Akron. The Zips unquestionably have the least history of any team in the league, having never been ranked. They went 3-27 under former HC Tom Arth, with their only FBS wins being a pair over Bowling Green. However, there is reason for optimism as Akron replaced Arth with former Mississippi State HC Joe Moorhead. Moorhead has a proven track record as a play caller and got a raw deal to get fired from Starkville after 2 seasons. I only project Akron as a 3-9 team this year, but the arrow is undoubtedly pointing up for the future.