College Football Picks Week 14 2023

Week 13 was fantastic- I went 5-1 against the spread with many of my winners (Kansas, BYU, Arizona) covering by multiple touchdowns. I unfortunately marked out a bit on my futures bets- Alabama under 10.5 wins was one miraculous Jalen Milroe pass away from winning.

Preseason: +4.72 units

Other Futures: 0 units

Week 0: +0.82 units

Week 1: -7.37 units

Week 2: -2.83 units

Week 3: -0.59 units

Week 4: -5.31 units

Week 5: +6.21 units

Week 6: -0.18 units

Week 7: +0.55 units

Week 8: -5.09 units

Week 9: -1.1 units

Week 10: +6.09 units

Week 11: +2.33 units

Week 12: -1.01 units

Week 13: +8.82 units

Total: +6.06 units

SMU @.Tulane (Saturday, 3 PM Central)

SMU and Tulane both made it through the American unbeaten and neither has lost since September. Unfortunately for SMU, star QB Preston Stone was injured against Navy last week after putting up nearly 300 yards in the first quarter. Stone and the Mustangs have put up some gaudy offensive numbers this year and would surely be road favorites if he was healthy. Backup QB Kevin Jennings looked OK in mop-up duty, enough so that I am comfortable picking SMU here.

SMU +4 -112 (2 units)

As I mentioned in my ratings update this week, Oregon has expanded their lead as the #1 team in my model. I’m much higher on them than the computer consensus, but I would make the Ducks around a 4 point favorite against Georgia or Michigan and a bigger favorite over Texas or Florida State. The tough part of this bet is that it’s not even a given that they make the playoff with a win this weekend- betting markets imply they have around an 85% chance at the playoff with a win. I still think this is good value and should be around +375 or +400.

Oregon to win National Championship +500 (2 units)

Note that I normally would also be playing Louisville +3.5 this week against Florida State, but I bet Louisville to win the ACC +300 two weeks ago.