College Football Bowl Game Picks 2024

These will likely be my last picks of the college football season. I’m extremely pleased with how this season has gone- my futures bets were excellent this season, highlighted by my 30/1 Indiana to make the playoff bet. This is going to go down as my most profitable season ever, surpassing 2020. I learned this year that I have a lot more edge betting futures than individual games- there are fewer people betting futures, so it’s just a less efficient marketplace. I also had a great season against the spread- I finished the regular season first out of 27 computer models against the spread in all games.

My focus will turn to college basketball for the next few months, although I’ll have a little bit more college football content this season. I’ll aim to publish a preseason top 25 for 2025 around the time of the national title game.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Week 12: +0.73 units

Week 13: -0.2 units

Week 14: +8.1 units

Week 15: -2 units

Preseason and In-Season Futures: +36.84 units

Total: +41.18 units

SMU @ Penn State (December 21st, 11 AM Central)

My model has been high on SMU all season and continues to be now- I have them 7th in my ratings headed into the playoff. They suffered from some boneheaded mistakes against Clemson but were definitely the better team on a down to down basis. Penn State has been a clear step behind the elite teams all year and is yet to beat a team as talented as SMU. This seems like the most likely first round playoff upset to me.

SMU +9 (2 units)

SMU ML +260 (1 unit)

Tennessee @ Ohio State (December 21st, 7 PM Central)

Ohio State was the top team in my model by a large margin headed into the Michigan game. I still don’t fully understand how they looked so bad against Michigan- missing multiple short field goals certainly doesn’t help- but I think they have the highest upside of any team in the country. Tennessee is the worst P5 team in the playoff and is less talented than Ohio State at every position. I think the Buckeyes should roll here.

Ohio State -7 -110 (2 units)

Rutgers vs. Kansas State (Rate Bowl: December 26th, 4:30 PM Central)

Kansas State was just a few bounces away from a really special season- my model liked them a lot in the second half of the year and I’ll likely be picking them to win the Big 12 in 2025. Rutgers, on the other hand, is much worse than their record. Their win over Washington was the most fluky result of the season, and they piled up wins against the dregs of the Big Ten. Kansas State is the vastly better team here.

Kansas State -6.5 -110 (2 units)

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th, 8 PM Central)

I bet a good bit on Arkansas State over 5.5 wins in the preseason, and I was very lucky to hit that bet. QB Jaylen Raynor regressed significantly in his sophomore season and the Red Wolves needed a very generous call to beat FCS Central Arkansas. Bowling Green, on the other hand, was the best team in the MAC this year. They lost a close game to Miami (OH) that cost them a chance to play for the MAC title. Before that game, they won 5 consecutive conference games, all by double digits. I think the Falcons keep rolling here.

Bowling Green -6.5 -110 (2 units)

Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Birmingham Bowl: December 27th, 2:30 PM Central)

Georgia Tech finished the regular season 24th in my model, around 10 or 15 spots higher than where most other people have them. Both of Georgia Tech’s QBs (Haynes King and Aaron Philo) have announced they’re returning for 2025, and I expect to see the Yellow Jackets in the preseason top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade. Vanderbilt had a special season but their lack of depth showed when they faded down the stretch.

Georgia Tech -2.5 -110 (2 units)

Michigan vs. Alabama (ReliaQuest Bowl: December 31st, 11 AM Central)

The last few weeks of the season were massive for Michigan- they landed Bryce Underwood and beat Ohio State. They even jumped into the top 25 of my ratings after the Ohio State win. Alabama, on the other hand, could be checked out here after failing to make the playoff. Jalen Milroe has announced he’ll play in this game, but I’d be surprised if Alabama brings out the whole playbook here.

Michigan +11.5 -110 (2 units)

Memphis vs. West Virginia (Frisco Bowl: December 17th, 8 PM Central)

I like betting against teams going through coaching changes in bowl season. West Virginia is in a total state of flux- Rich Rodridguez is coming back to Morgantown and looking to implement a very different offensive system than what Neal Brown ran. Memphis, on the other hand, should be amped up for this game- they’re capping off a great season and sending off graduating QB Seth Henigan, who holds every passing record in school history. 

Memphis -1 -110 (2 units)

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th, 4:30 PM Central)

James Madison had a weird year. I saw them in person when they thrashed North Carolina back in September- they looked like the best team in the G5 in that game. They followed that up by laying an egg against ULM a few weeks later. I still think they’re incredibly talented, and they should handily beat a WKU team that has a lot of guys in the portal.

James Madison -6.5 (1 unit)

Notre Dame over 1.5 playoff wins +160 (2 units)

I’ve been high on Notre Dame for a while- loyal readers will remember I bet on the Irish to win the national title at 40/1 odds back in October. They should beat Indiana comfortably, and then have to face Georgia. Notre Dame is actually favored in that game (the lookahead line is Notre Dame -2 right now) and my model would favor them by a bit more than that if Carson Beck is hurt. I think that the Irish have a good shot at their first national title in my lifetime. 

Final 2024 College Football Bracketology

We enter Selection Sunday with significant uncertainty over the last at-large spot. I’m somewhat confident that SMU will get the last spot in the Playoff over Alabama, but not certain. One interesting note- immediately after the ACC title game ended, Alabama was +650 to make the playoff and SMU was -1000 to make the playoff. Within minutes, the line had moved all the way to Alabama +260 and SMU -360. I think the new line is about fair- it implies a 75% chance of SMU in the playoff.

Without further ado, here’s my final playoff projection.

1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)- Rose Bowl

2 Georgia vs. (7 Notre Dame/10 Indiana)- Sugar Bowl

3 Boise State vs. (6 Penn State/11 SMU)- Fiesta Bowl

4 Arizona State vs. (5 Texas/12 Clemson)- Peach Bowl

Oregon and Georgia are locked into the 1 and 2 seeds. Here is how I see the probability of the other seeds:

Final at-large: SMU 75%, Alabama 25%

3 Seed: Boise State 80%, Arizona State 18%, Clemson 2%

First Round Bye: Boise State 95%, Arizona State 85%, Clemson 20%

5 Seed: Texas 65%, Notre Dame 20%, Penn State 15%

6 Seed: Penn State 42%, Notre Dame 30%, Texas 28%

7 Seed: Notre Dame 50%, Penn State 35%, Ohio State 10%, Texas 5%

8 Seed: Ohio State 90%, Penn State 8%, Texas 2%

9 Seed: Tennessee 100%

10 Seed: Indiana 95%, SMU 5%

11 Seed: SMU 45%, Clemson 35%, Alabama 15%, Indiana 5%

12 Seed: Clemson 65%, SMU 25%, Alabama 10%

Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ll be back with picks for bowl games later in the week.

College Football Picks Week 15 2024

I had an excellent week 14, going 6-1 on my ATS picks, including winning all of my multi-unit bets. My biggest plays mostly won easily, Virginia Tech dominated Virginia and Georgia Tech nearly won outright as a 19.5 point underdog.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Week 12: +0.73 units

Week 13: -0.2 units

Week 14: +8.1 units

Preseason and In-Season Futures: +24.29 units

Total: +30.63 units

Tulane @ Army (Friday, 7 PM Central)

Tulane was dominating everyone in the AAC prior to last week’s slip up against Memphis. That was unfortunate- it killed my Tulane playoff ticket at +650- and it also led to Army gaining the right to host the AAC title game. I think last week was a blip and Tulane is still a very good team- their talent level is vastly superior to Army’s. Tulane also knows how to handle Army’s triple option attack- Tulane completely shut down Navy 35-0 a few weeks ago. I think the Green Wave should roll here.

Tulane -4 -108 (2 units)

College Football Bracketology- Week 14 2024

While Ohio State may have lost at home to Michigan, the team that saw their playoff odds fall the most this week was Miami. Miami entered the week in good shape, with around a 70% chance to make the playoff. Not only did the Hurricanes lose to Syracuse, but other teams around them in the rankings (Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, SMU) all won. I’ll get into it in more detail below, but I think that the ‘Canes playoff hopes are now hanging on by a thread.

Normally I structure this post by going team by team and breaking down each team’s at-large chances. With ⅔ of the field already locked up, today I’ll instead talk about the biggest questions facing the committee in the next week.

Final At-Large Spot

First, let’s establish the teams that are locked into the field. I’m counting the following eight teams as locks:

That leaves 4 spots left in the field. Here’s how I see the odds for other teams to capture those 4 spots:

The winner of the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West title games will all get into the field. That leaves one spot remaining- let’s go through the contenders for that final spot in detail.

SMU- The Mustangs play Clemson for the ACC title. If they win, they’re in, very likely as the 3 seed. If they lose, they go into the at-large pool. SMU’s best result is a road win at Louisville and they also boast five other wins against bowl teams. I think that SMU is around a coin flip to get into the field with a loss.

Alabama- The Crimson Tide have a big win over Georgia, and perhaps more importantly, a win over fellow bubble team South Carolina. The case against Alabama is clear though- the committee has historically punished bad losses, and a 24-3 blowout to a 6-6 Oklahoma team, as well as the Vanderbilt loss, might both count. However, their name brand has helped them get into the playoff before and it might again.

South Carolina- The biggest argument in South Carolina’s favor is their recent form. The committee has shown some willingness to reward teams on a hot streak, and the Gamecocks finished on a 6 game win streak including wins over Clemson, Missouri and Texas A&M. Their loss to Alabama might doom them, but it was on the road and only by two points. 

Miami- I think Miami is pretty toast, but the committee has liked them more than me all season. Their wins are pretty similar to SMU’s (a road win at Louisville, and a smattering of wins against other ACC bowl teams) but their losses (at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse) are worse.

Ole Miss- I think Ole Miss is nearly dead. They’d have to jump Alabama, which would make no sense given that Alabama had a more impressive win than them this weekend.

Boise State- I haven’t seen anyone else discussing this possibility, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning the possibility that the Broncos could get an at-large bid if they lose to UNLV. I certainly don’t think it will happen, but the committee has been kind to conference championship game losers in the past, and there’s a tiny chance they could stay ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams.

I think that if SMU loses, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:

SMU 50%

Alabama 25%

South Carolina 22%

Miami 3%

And if SMU wins, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:

Alabama 50%

South Carolina 35%

Miami 12%

Ole Miss 2%

Boise State 1%

Regardless, we will have a lot more clarity after the committee’s reveal this Tuesday. We’ll know for sure what happens if SMU wins and have a good guess of what will happen if they lose.

Who Gets a Home Game?

Recall that the first round (and only the first round) of the playoff is played on campus sites. That means that teams seeded 5-8 will get a home game. Notre Dame is certain to be in this group, as well as the Oregon/Penn State loser. That leaves 3 candidates left for the remaining 2 spots: Ohio State, Tennessee and the Georgia/Texas loser.

If Georgia beats Texas, Texas will clearly host. If Texas beats Georgia, I think Georgia will still get to host, but I’m not 100% certain. It thus seems like the last spot will come down to Ohio State and Tennessee. 

The AP Poll has Tennessee over Ohio State but I am guessing that the committee will disagree and keep the Buckeyes higher. Ohio State’s wins (at Penn State, Indiana) are better than Tennessee’s (Alabama, Florida) and their losses are comparable. That likely sets up a Tennessee at Ohio State 8/9 game in the first round.

Who gets a Bye?

The top 2 seeds will clearly be the Big Ten and SEC champions. The last two byes are pretty fluid though, and I think there’s an interesting scenario on the table that no one is discussing.

First, let’s consider the case where SMU beats Clemson. SMU is clearly the 3 seed, and the last bye comes down to the Mountain West and Big 12. I feel pretty confident Boise State will stay ahead of the Big 12 champion if they win, but if UNLV upsets Boise State then the Big 12 champion should get the last bye.

Now, let’s suppose SMU loses. I think that the hierarchy for a bye goes: Boise State, Big 12 Champion, Clemson, UNLV. That is, if Clemson beats SMU and Boise State beats UNLV, I think that Clemson will be the 12 seed and have to go on the road in the first round of the playoff. No one seems to be talking about this, but it’s what Clemson would deserve after backing into the field.

Who Gets the 5 Seed

With the way the bracket sets up, the 5 seed is uniquely valuable this year. The 5 seed’s most likely path to the semifinals is a home game against the Big 12 champion and then a neutral site game against Boise State. On the other hand, the 6 seed’s most likely path is a home game against Alabama and then a neutral site game against SMU. I estimate that it’s about twice as easy to make the semifinals as the 5 seed than the 6 seed, so it’s a huge advantage.

The 5 seed will be the highest ranked team without a conference title. If Oregon loses to Penn State, they are the clear pick for the 5 seed. If Oregon wins, we have the following list of contenders:

11-2 Penn State

11-1 Notre Dame

11-2 Texas (if they lose to Georgia)

If Texas beats Georgia, I think that Notre Dame would get the nod. If Georgia beats Texas, it’s probably Texas.

Most Likely Playoff Bracket

Conference championship weekend normally features a few games with clear favorites (think Ohio State or Michigan against some hapless Big Ten West team) but with the death of divisions, all nine conference title games are expected to be reasonably close. That makes picking a “most likely” bracket still a bit of a guessing game at this time, but for argument’s sake I’ll suppose that all the relevant favorites (Oregon, Texas, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State) win.

1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)

2 Texas vs. (7 Georgia/10 Indiana)

3 SMU vs. (6 Penn State/11 Alabama)

4 Boise State vs. (5 Notre Dame/12 Arizona State)

I think this bracket has some clear winners (Notre Dame, Alabama) and some clear losers (Tennessee, Oregon). One general rule of thumb for the bracket reveal- you probably don’t want to see Ohio State, Georgia or Alabama in your section of the draw.

College Football Picks Week 14 2024

My bet on San Jose State was a real stinker last week- SJSU QB Walker Eget was 4/22 in a loss to UNLV. You won’t see many quarterback stat lines as bad as that.

The good news is that most other things last week went my way. The biggest positive was Ole Miss losing to Florida- this cashed my Ole Miss under 9.5 wins ticket and makes my Ole Miss to miss Playoff ticket look very likely.

Loyal readers will remember that in addition to the picks below, I also have bets on Florida +11.5 and Iowa State PK that I got in the preseason. Iowa State is only a 2 point favorite, but the Florida line looks great as the Gators are two touchdown favorites at Florida State.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Week 12: +0.73 units

Week 13: -0.2 units

Preseason Bets: +21.06 units

Total: +19.3 units

Virginia @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

Virginia Tech has once again had a strange season where their record is much worse than their performance. They had a controversial loss to Miami, a confounding OT loss to Syracuse, and a turnover-laden loss to Rutgers. All of their wins have been by double digits- they’ve played more like an 8-3 team than a 5-6 team. Virginia, on the other hand, was completely uncompetitive against SMU last week. This is a huge rivalry game, and Blacksburg will be rocking for what should be a dominating Virginia Tech win.

Virginia Tech -7 -110 (3 units)

Georgia Tech @ Georgia (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)

I’ve been high on Georgia Tech all season- they’ve been in the 20s and 30s in my ratings when they’ve been in the 40s and 50s elsewhere. HC Brent Key has really raised the talent level on their roster- it’s now firmly in the top half of the ACC. Georgia has shown some vulnerability this season, and looked awful against UMass last week. I think Georgia Tech can keep this from being a blowout.

Georgia Tech +19.5 -110 (2 units)

Connecticut @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Longtime readers of my blog will know that these two teams are both near and dear to my heart. I’ve bet on both of them many times over the years, so it would be a shame to let a UMass/UConn game go by without placing a bet. I like UMass here- I was a little surprised to see them fire HC Don Brown as he’s done a decent job at the hardest gig in FBS. The talent level between these teams is comparable and while UConn has a much better record, that’s largely due to their luck in close games.

UMass +10 -110 (2 units)

Pittsburgh @ Boston College (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

Pitt started the season 7-0 and has since lost four straight to fall to 7-4. I think they’re likely to lose another here to a strong Boston College team. People asked some questions after Boston College brought in veteran HC Bill O’Brien in the offseason, but he’s done an excellent job in year one to get the Eagles to a bowl game. Boston College is firmly a top 50 team in my model, putting them in the top half of the ACC.

Boston College -3 -110 (2 units)

Duke @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Duke is the quietest 8-3 team in the country. They’ve lost to only good teams (SMU, at Miami and at Georgia Tech) and knocked off a few bowl teams in North Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State. It’s no surprise that a great coach like Manny Diaz could put together a winning squad, but even I didn’t expect these results in year one. On the other side, it’s a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is 4-7. The Demon Deacons are one of the worst teams in the Power Four and should be a bigger home underdog here.

Duke -4.5 -110 (1 unit)

Auburn @ Alabama (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Auburn has been hanging out in my model’s top 25 all season despite having a losing record. They’ve managed to find every possible way to lose a football game, most notably Payton Thorne’s backbreaking pick six against Oklahoma. The Tigers are clearly better than their record and have a top ten roster in the sport, as we saw last weekend against Texas A&M. Alabama has question marks on both sides of the ball and I don’t think they’ll run away with the Iron Bowl.

Auburn +12.5 -110 (1 unit)

New Mexico @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 10 PM Central)

Hawai’i has been great to me all season and I’m going to keep picking them here. HC Timmy Chang inherited the worst situation in FBS when he took over, and has turned the team from a doormat to a respectable Mountain West squad. Mainland teams often struggle travelling out to the islands, and New Mexico probably has a less talented roster than Hawai’i. 

Hawai’i +2.5 -110 (1 unit)

UNLV to miss Playoff -300 (6 units)

UNLV needs to win the Mountain West to make the Playoff, and also needs to stay in front of the winner of the American. To win the conference, UNLV must beat Nevada this week, and then win a conference title game at Boise State where they’re likely going to be a double digit underdog. There are also a few scenarios on the board where the AAC champion remains in front of UNLV, taking their spot in the playoff. I liked this bet a lot more before Tulane lost to Memphis, but I still think UNLV has a long hill to climb to make the Playoff.

Miami to make Playoff -200 (3 units)

Miami was the biggest beneficiary of last week’s chaos in the SEC. The Hurricanes have one easy path to the playoff- if they beat Syracuse, they’re in the ACC title game, and if they win that, they’ll be the 3 seed. More importantly, I think they stand a good chance of making the playoff with a loss- especially if it’s in the ACC title game. I give the Hurricanes around a three in four chance at making the field.  

Clemson to make Playoff +200 (3 units)

I was a Clemson hater for much of the season, but I have to admit that their chances of making the field are looking up. They’ve risen all the way to 12th in the committee’s rankings, and if they beat South Carolina, I think they’re more likely than not to make the field. I think that this is a reasonable price to buy back my short exposure to Clemson.

Alabama to win National Championship 40/1 (0.5 units)

Ole Miss to win National Championship 150/1 (0.5 units)

In 2017, Alabama lost the Iron Bowl to Auburn, and their season looked to be over. The Crimson Tide were 12/1 to win the National Championship, despite every computer ranking still thinking they were the best team in the country. You know how the story went from there- Wisconsin beat Ohio State to vault Alabama into the four team playoff, and Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa knocked off Georgia in the title game.

I think a similar sentiment applies here. Alabama and Ole Miss are both unlikely to make the playoff, but if they do, they’re going to be one of the favorites to win it all. Both teams are hanging around the top 5 in most computer metrics and are among the most talented teams in the country. The history of college basketball is filled with talented teams that have poor regular seasons and then go on a tournament run, and the 12 team playoff means that teams like Alabama and Ole Miss can do the same.

Baylor to win Big 12 90/1 (0.1 units)

Baylor fans were ready to run HC Dave Aranda out of town before the season. However, the Bears have been on an immense hot streak since elevating Sawyer Robertson to the starting QB role. In the event that the Big 12 comes down to a monstrous tiebreaker of teams with 6-3 conference records, Baylor is very likely to end up in the conference title game thanks to their superior conference strength of schedule. I think this is a fun longshot bet.

College Football Bracketology- Week 13 2024

Week 13 brought chaos to the playoff picture with Indiana, Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M all losing. The biggest beneficiaries of this were the ACC teams- Miami, SMU and Clemson all won and saw their playoff odds take big leaps forward. 

With only two weeks left before Selection Sunday, it’s a bit easier to get into all of the various scenarios. In the sections below, I’ve tried analyzing a few possible scenarios (e.g. Miami loses the ACC title game) and given my thoughts on the probability that various teams could get into the playoff in those scenarios.

Tier 1: Locks and Near Locks

There are four locks in this tier- Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas. I don’t see any of these teams getting left out even if they lose every remaining game.

In my mind, Georgia just needs one more win (either Georgia Tech or the SEC title game) to get in. Notre Dame is in (and likely hosting a first round game) with a win over USC, and I think they have about a 75% chance of getting in even with a loss.

Indiana is the most controversial inclusion in this list. However, after looking through some scenarios, I am quite confident in their chances to make the field if they beat Purdue. They’d need two of the following things to happen to miss the field:

1. Texas A&M winning the SEC

2. Clemson beating South Carolina and jumping them

3. The loser of the ACC title game staying above them

This would have to be on top of all the other favorites (Tennessee, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) winning. All in all, there’s about a one in eight chance that this happens.

Tier 2: Probably In

Tennessee has the simplest playoff scenario of any team. If they beat Vanderbilt, they’re a lock, and likely hosting a first round game at Neyland Stadium. If they lose, they’re pretty much out of the discussion.

Miami and SMU both control their own destiny. They’ll likely face off in the ACC title game- I think that an 11-2 loser of the ACC title game would stand a decent chance to get into the field. I give Miami a 70% chance at the playoff if they beat Syracuse but lose to SMU, and give SMU a 55% chance at the playoff if they beat Cal but lose to Miami.

Tier 3: Contenders

Clemson has been flying up this list in recent weeks, both because of chaos in the SEC and also because the committee has consistently ranked them higher than I expected. Clemson needs a Miami loss to make the ACC title game, but even without that I think they stand around a 60% chance at an at-large bid if they can beat South Carolina.

Speaking of the Gamecocks, they have appeared in the longshots section for a few weeks now but this is their first time listed as a contender. If they beat Clemson this weekend, I think that the last playoff spot will likely come down to them, the ACC title game loser and Alabama.

Two weeks ago, I gave Arizona State a 3% chance at making the playoff. After two ranked wins against Kansas State and BYU, as well as helpful results elsewhere, they nearly control their own destiny for the Big 12 title.

Tier 4: Longshots

Texas A&M has a difficult, but simple path to the playoff- they need to beat both Georgia and Texas. Ole Miss needs to win the Egg Bowl and then get a tremendous amount of help elsewhere. Colorado and Baylor both have outside shots at the Big 12 but need lots of teams above them to lose.

Group of Five

I am still holding out hope for two Group of Five teams in the playoff. If we assume for a second that Boise State wins the Mountain West, I think that a 10-2 Tulane would make the playoff over a 9-3 or 8-4 Big 12 champion. There is about a 1 in 6 chance that the Big 12 produces a champion with at least 3 losses, so I think there’s a reasonable chance that we get two G5 teams in the field.

College Football Bracketology- Week 12 2024

Week 12 teased some chaos but never delivered it. We did see some playoff contenders lose, but outside of Tennessee (who lost to fellow contender Georgia), it was all teams on the edge of playoff contention who fell. We wish farewell to LSU, Kansas State, Missouri, Washington State and West Virginia who are out of contention after losses this weekend.

Tier 1: Top Contenders

The biggest change in this tier from last week is the addition of Georgia. After beating Tennessee, Georgia is a stone cold lock to make the playoff with two more wins, and hosts UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is squirrelly, but Georgia should still be a 17 point favorite or so in that game.

Ohio State, Texas and Penn State all saw their odds tick up a bit with routine wins this week. I’m also a bit more bullish about Indiana’s playoff chances than the betting market- I think an 11-1 Indiana is still very likely to make the field.

Tier 2: Probably In

All of these teams control their own destiny, but have at least one decent hurdle left to clear. Notre Dame is a 16 point favorite against Army this week but will likely only be a 6 point favorite or so at USC on Thanksgiving weekend. I have no clue what happens to a 10-2 Notre Dame team that loses to USC- I think it’s a coin flip whether they get into the field in that scenario.

Ole Miss travels to Florida this week as a 10 point favorite, and then hosts an awful Mississippi State team to close out the year. A 2-0 finish should lock up a bid.

Alabama is in an interesting scenario- they have two moderate tests (at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn) left. If they win both of those, they’re very likely to be in the SEC title game. If they lose the SEC title game to say, Texas, it’ll be interesting to see how the committee ranks a 10-3 Alabama team relative to say, 10-2 Tennessee. Based on historical precedent, my hunch is that they wouldn’t fall very far for losing the SEC title game.

Tier 3: Coin Flips

Tennessee falls into this tier after their loss to Georgia. If we end up in the scenario with a logjam of 10-2 teams that I outlined last week, I think that Tennessee would be the odd team out. However, that scenario is still unlikely as there are plenty of possible upsets over the next two weeks. The Volunteers do still need to take care of business, most notably in their Rivalry Week game at Vanderbilt.

You might notice that Colorado’s odds to make the playoff are actually slightly lower than their odds to win the Big 12. I’m pricing in some small possibility (perhaps 1 in 10) that the Big 12 champion gets left out of the playoff. Suppose, for example that Colorado loses to Kansas this week, but still makes the Big 12 championship game and wins it (this scenario is not that unlikely- all it would require is 1 loss each from Iowa State and Arizona State). 

In this scenario, we could be looking at 2 playoff spots for 10-3 Colorado, 12-1 Boise State and 12-1 Army. Recall that the top 5 conference champions get autobids to the playoff- there is no guarantee that all the P4 conferences get a team in if their champion is not one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions. I’m not certain that a 3 loss Big 12 champion makes the field in that scenario.

Tier 4: Longshots

The clear winner here this week was Arizona State, while the clear loser was BYU. Arizona State’s win and BYU’s loss combined to vault Arizona State from a 3% chance to win the Big 12 to a 22% chance. The two teams face off this weekend and the winner will just need one more win to make the conference title game.

Clemson’s playoff odds ticked up a bit after their win at Pittsburgh. I think there’s an outside shot Clemson gets an at-large bid if they knock off South Carolina and finish 10-2, but they’d need chaos elsewhere. Speaking of South Carolina, I added the Gamecocks to the longshots list this week- if chaos erupts in the next two weeks, a 9-3 South Carolina team with wins over Texas A&M, Clemson and Missouri could merit playoff consideration.

Group of Five

You’ll notice that for the first time, these numbers sum to greater than 100%. That’s due to the aforementioned scenario where two G5 teams get in in lieu of the Big 12 champion. Tulane is the biggest riser in this section- they are up to the top 20 in my ratings after demolishing Navy and secured their spot in the AAC title game. Tulane will be at least a touchdown favorite at home against Army and is likely one Boise State slip up away from the playoff.

College Football Picks Week 13 2024

I went 2-2 in my picks last week, but more importantly I cashed a few big tickets from the preseason. Florida over 4.5 wins and Arkansas State over 5.5 wins were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both cashed this week. I’ve been fortunate with Arkansas State- they’ve been quite bad this season and are very lucky to have six wins. Florida, on the other hand, has improved drastically over the course of the season and should make a bowl game.

In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Iowa State +9 against Utah in my preseason bets. That bet looks quite nice, as the line is now Iowa State -6.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Week 12: +0.73 units

Preseason Bets: +14.63 units

Total: +13.07 units

UNLV @ San Jose State (Friday, 9 PM Central)

By this point in the season, I normally have a good handle on every team and I’m very rarely surprised by a line. This is a rare exception- these are two good teams, and I was quite surprised to see San Jose State getting a touchdown at home. San Jose State has been a revelation under new HC Ken Niumatalolo and is the clear third best team in the Mountain West. UNLV is a good team as well but this line implies a bigger gap between these teams than is justified.

San Jose State +7.5 -100 (2 units)

San Jose State ML +230 (1 unit)

Western Michigan @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6:30 PM Central)

Non-Michiganders likely do not appreciate how big of a rivalry this is. Western and Central are very similar sorts of schools and are competing against each other for recruits- there is a lot of bad blood between these schools. WMU got off to a hot start, but it was a bit fraudulent. CMU is a bad team, but they’re better than their record indicates thanks to some bad close game luck. You can toss out the records whenever these two old foes meet, and I think Western is a bit overrated so I like Central to cover.

Central Michigan +8 -110 (1 unit)

Baylor @ Houston (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Baylor HC Dave Aranda was thought to be a dead man walking earlier in the season, but after four straight wins it looks he has saved his job. Baylor’s offense has caught fire since switching to new QB Sawyer Robertson and they would control their own destiny for a playoff spot if they hadn’t allowed a shambolic Hail Mary against Colorado in September. Houston has been up and down all season but Baylor is just a plain old good team now.

Baylor -7.5 +100 (1 unit)

San Diego State @ Utah State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Utah State has had a lost season after HC Blake Anderson was let go in the offseason. However, San Diego State has been even worse than Utah State. The fast-paced Aztecs offense has been a disaster this season, as a bad fast-paced offense is a great recipe for a tired defense. I like Utah State to win this battle of two bad teams.

Utah State -4.5 -112 (1 unit)

Tulane to make Playoff +650 (2 units)

Tulane went on the road and destroyed Navy 35-0 this week. The Green Wave have rocketed into the top 20 of my ratings after winning their last three games by a combined score of 121-9. They’ve now clinched a berth in the AAC title game, where they’ll play Army.

They have two ways to make the playoff. They can either win the AAC and have Boise State slip up in the Mountain West title game, or they can win the AAC and hope for supreme chaos in the Big 12, where they could jump a 3 loss Big 12 champion for the last autobid. The first one is most likely- they’ll be serious favorites over Army and Boise State is looking mortal recently.

Toledo to win MAC +450 (1 unit)

This is another case of using the conference tiebreakers to my advantage. Even though Toledo has 2 losses in MAC play and there are three teams ahead of them with 1 loss (Bowling Green, Miami (OH) and Ohio), they nearly control their own destiny for the conference title. Miami (OH) and Bowling Green still have to play and Toledo plays Ohio this week. This means that if Toledo wins out, there will be at most a single 1 loss team in the conference. In a big tiebreaker jumble for 2 loss conference teams, Toledo is very likely to come out ahead due to having the superior conference strength of schedule.

College Football Bracketology- Week 11 2024

We’re going to begin this week’s bracketology with a very big picture view of the playoff field. After recent upsets in the ACC and Big 12 (Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State and Clemson all losing in the past two weeks), it looks increasingly likely that both leagues will have only one playoff bid. After we take out the Group of Five’s playoff spot, that likely leaves nine spots for the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. This scenario is not a certainty- for example, a 12-1 BYU team that loses the Big 12 title game would almost certainly get an at-large- but it is the most likely outcome.

Right now, there are 4 Big Ten teams and 7 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses, not to mention Notre Dame. If every remaining game this season is won by the favorite, this would knock out Missouri (who is a 13 point underdog at South Carolina this week) and Texas A&M (who will be a decent underdog against Texas). This would still leave 10 teams for 9 spots- and if the favorites prevail everywhere, that means a 10-2 Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama team is left on the chopping block.

It’s unlikely that this exact scenario materializes, as there will probably be an upset somewhere- suppose Ole Miss loses at Florida, or Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, or Notre Dame loses to USC, or something like that. However, it does lead us to two general rules for playoff selection this year:

1. Any Big Ten or SEC team with 2 or fewer losses should be in the field, unless we get a completely chalk finish to the season. Indiana is probably the one exception to this rule. This rule may or may not apply to Notre Dame- I’m incredibly unsure as to what will happen with a 10-2 Notre Dame.

2. Any ACC or Big 12 team with 0 or 1 losses will be in the field. The only possible team that could fit this criteria and not also be a conference champion is a 12-1 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game.

Most likely, after we fill out teams that fit in category (1) and (2), the field will be full. It’s possible we’ll have a spot or two left, at which point teams like 11-2 Miami, 10-2 Kansas State, 10-2 Clemson or 9-3 Georgia would enter consideration, just to name a few. 

Now that we’ve set the table for the playoff picture, it’s time for some team by team analysis.

Tier 1: Top Contenders

Georgia and Miami fall out of the top tier this week, and are replaced by Penn State and Indiana. The Big Ten conference office must be salivating at the way the schedule worked this year- assuming chalk holds the rest of the way, the Big Ten will finish the regular season with Oregon at 12-0 and Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana at 11-1. They’d be nearly a lock to get 4 bids in the playoff, and there would be no controversy about the conference title game as Ohio State would have wins over both Penn State and Indiana.

Tier 2: Probably In

There are 5 teams in this tier and 5 teams in the top tier. As I outlined at the top of the post, it is impossible for all 10 of these teams to make the playoff- meaning that at least one team is set up for a disappointing finish to the season. 

Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Alabama have relatively simple paths. I really struggle to see any of those three teams missing the field if they win out, and they all have relatively light schedules. The only games where I could see any of those teams as less than double digit favorites are Ole Miss @ Florida and Notre Dame @ USC.

The winner of this week’s Georgia/Tennessee game is going to be in excellent shape and will likely move to tier 1 next week. The loser is in some trouble. For Georgia, it would be their third loss- if any team is going to make the field with 3 losses, it would be a Georgia squad who owns a road win at Texas. For Tennessee, it would be their second loss, and they have the least impressive resume of any potential 2 loss SEC team- the win over Alabama is their only win over a likely bowl team. Tennessee also still has a tough trip to Vanderbilt where they’ll only be a touchdown favorite or so.

Tier 3: Coin Flips

Interestingly, this tier contains two Big 12 teams and two ACC teams. We’re reasonably likely to see Miami play SMU for the ACC title and BYU play Colorado for the Big 12 title. The most likely scenario is that the winner of each game will be in the field and the loser will be out. If any team from this group is going to get an at-large bid, I’m most bullish on BYU’s chances. The Cougars have the best wins of the group (SMU, Kansas State) and should get into the field as a 12-1 conference title game loser.

I also would not rule out the possibility that either the ACC or the Big 12 fails to get a team in the playoff. For example, suppose that Colorado loses to Kansas but goes on to win the Big 12 at 10-3, and both Boise State and Army win out. I’m nearly certain that a 12-1 Boise State and 13-0 Army team would get into the playoff over a 10-3 Colorado.

Tier 4: Longshots

Washington State is getting a bit more respect from the playoff committee than I would’ve guessed- they are all the way up to 18th in the most recent rankings. I don’t think their playoff hopes are completely dead- if chaos strikes the SEC in the next few weeks, they only have to climb six or seven more spots in the rankings to get an at-large bid.

Everyone else in this section is still here on a technicality. LSU still has an outside shot at the SEC title, Missouri sucks but technically still has only 2 losses, and the Big 12 teams on the list all have outside paths to the conference championship.

Group of Five

Boise State’s playoff odds have steadily ticked up for many weeks in a row. I think that the Broncos control their own destiny for the playoff- even in the unlikely event that Army remains undefeated (Army is a 15.5 point underdog against Notre Dame), I think that a 12-1 Boise State team still gets into the field as an at-large. 

Tulane travels to Navy this week. If Tulane wins, it guarantees a Tulane/Army AAC title game. If Navy wins, it keeps some wildcard scenarios open for the G5 berth. The craziest possible scenario I can imagine involves Navy winning the AAC (+800 or so), Colorado State winning the Mountain West (+650 or so) and Louisiana failing to win the Sun Belt (-130 or so). 

College Football Picks Week 12 2024

I went 3-1 in my picks last week, Minnesota looked awful against Rutgers but my other three bets covered rather easily. I had yet another underdog I picked win straight up last week as Georgia Tech beat Miami as a 13.5 point dog.

I cashed some winners in my preseason futures this week as well- I was getting worried about Virginia over 4.5 wins but they upset Pitt for their fifth win. Fresno State’s disaster season continued with a loss to 2-7 Air Force, so I cashed my Fresno State under 8 wins ticket. 

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Week 11: +2.55 units

Preseason Bets: +9.17 units

Total: +6.88 units

Texas @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

About a month ago, I bet 4 units on Arkansas as a 14 point underdog at home against Tennessee. This game feels similar to me- Arkansas is an inconsistent team, but their ceiling is quite high and on their day they can play with anyone. Texas, meanwhile, looks shakier the longer you look at them- they only have one win over a team with a winning record. My model thinks Texas is more like a top 7 team than a top 3 team, so they could be in some trouble on the road against the plucky Razorbacks.

Arkansas +17 -110 (2 units)

Ball State @ Buffalo (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)

First year Buffalo coach Pete Lembo was the head coach at Ball State many moons ago, and now faces his former team. Ball State has shown some signs of life this year, knocking off Northern Illinois and playing Vanderbilt close in recent weeks. Buffalo is a bottom half MAC team and should not be nearly a touchdown favorite at home. 

Ball State +5 -110 (1 unit)

Syracuse @ California (Saturday, 2 PM Central)

Cal is a few plays away from a very special season. All of their losses are by five points or less and all of their wins are by double digits. The Golden Bears are an above average ACC team, and the same cannot be said of Syracuse. Syracuse has been the beneficiary of insane close game luck and is clearly the worse team despite their better record. As an added bonus, I plan to be in attendance at this game rooting for Cal.

California -7 -110 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

It is a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is sniffing a bowl. The Demon Deacons are in the 80s in my power ratings and might have the worst roster in the power conferences. North Carolina has pulled themselves out of their mid-season tailspin and has better players at nearly every position.

North Carolina -10 -110 (1 unit)

Alabama to win SEC +650 (2 units)

LSU to win SEC +3500 (0.5 units)

I spent a long time digging through the SEC’s tiebreaker procedures today, and I really like both of these bets. To explain why, let me briefly explain how the SEC’s tiebreakers work. Right now, there are three teams with 1 loss in SEC play (Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee) and then several teams with 2 losses (Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri).

Texas plays Texas A&M in a few weeks, so it’s possible that Tennessee wins out and then plays the Texas/Texas A&M winner in the SEC title game. However, Tennessee is quite unlikely to win out as they have to travel to both Georgia and Vanderbilt (the Vols are a 10 point underdog to Georgia this week).

If Tennessee (or the Texas/Texas A&M winner) trip up, then 2 loss teams come into play. This is what will probably happen- we’ll get a ginormous group of 2 loss teams and have to pick one (or maybe two) title game participants out of the group. In a huge group tiebreaker, conference strength of schedule will rule the day.

Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule of all the contenders and is thus likely to come out on top in the tiebreaker. The other team that’s played a similarly tough schedule is LSU. In a massive tiebreaker jumble, it’s very likely one of these teams will come out on top.

One added note- because conference SOS is likely to be the deciding factor, games you might think are irrelevant could determine the conference race. For example, LSU has played Arkansas and Alabama has played Missouri, and the winner of the November 30th Arkansas/Missouri game could determine who makes the SEC title game.

SMU to win ACC +190 (2 units)

Once again, the tiebreaker math is in our favor with this bet. SMU is overwhelmingly likely to make the ACC title game, as they’d have to go 1-2 or worse down the stretch to miss the title game. My model would make SMU a very small underdog (2 points or so) against Clemson or Miami, so I think there’s some decent value here.

Clemson to miss Playoff -270 (4 units)

I will admit that this line is no longer available- I pounced on -270 when I saw it today, and it has moved to -350 in the few hours it took me to write this post. Clemson has two routes to the playoff- they can either win the ACC or get an at-large bid. To win the ACC, they’d have to (i) beat Pitt, (ii) hope Miami loses to an awful Wake Forest team or a mediocre Syracuse team and then (iii) beat SMU in the ACC title game. That is a pretty unlikely series of events. Their at-large odds are looking pretty slim: the giant group of 2 loss SEC teams will all be ahead of Clemson, and Clemson still has a very tricky game against South Carolina to tangle with. 

Colorado to miss Playoff -130 (3 units)

I love this Colorado team as much as anyone else, but this line is a bit ridiculous. Colorado needs to win the Big 12 to make the playoff- if they lose again, they’ll have 3 losses and there’s simply no chance a 3 loss Big 12 team makes the playoff. Colorado has two games left that will be relative tossups- a trip to Kansas and the potential Big 12 title game. They also need to navigate a home game against rival Utah. They’re going to be favored in every remaining game, but only very slight favorites in two of them, and this line is just not quite right.

College Football Bracketology- Week 10 2024

After a few weeks of chalk, week 9 gave us some decent upsets that shook up the playoff race a little. Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State were teams 9, 12, 14 and 15 in my playoff odds a week ago, and all of them lost this week. That opened up the door quite a bit for teams like BYU, SMU and Indiana who saw their odds rise significantly.

Tier 1: Top Contenders

It’s no surprise that these were the top five teams in the committee’s first in-season rankings. Any team in this group (except Oregon, who is a stone cold lock) would be able to handle one more loss with no trouble but would be in some serious danger with two more losses. If I had to pick one team in this tier to be worried about, it might be Georgia, who has to navigate games against Ole Miss and Tennessee in back to back weeks.

Tier 2: Probably In

Penn State drops from the top tier to the second tier after their loss to Ohio State. Their trickiest remaining game is a trip to Minnesota- I reckon they’ll be around 8 point favorites there- but overall their schedule is manageable. I think a 10-2 Penn State would get in, but I’m not totally certain.

Notre Dame was hurt by the committee’s first rankings, I expected them to be around 8th and they came in at 10th. They’ll be fine if they win out, but I think a 10-2 Notre Dame is a coin toss to get in.

Alabama’s season will come down to this weekend’s game against LSU. Their last few games are quite easy, so if they win this one they’ll likely finish 10-2 and easily make it into the field. If they lose, they’ll be praying for chaos elsewhere- I don’t think we’ll see any 3 loss teams in the playoff this year.

Tier 3: Other Contenders

BYU and Colorado were both huge winners this week despite being on bye, as fellow Big 12 contenders Iowa State and Kansas State lost. Both teams face tricky road tests this week- BYU is a 4 point favorite at Utah and Colorado is a 3 point favorite at Texas Tech.

Much like Alabama, Ole Miss’ season likely comes down to this weekend’s game. If they beat Georgia, they’ll be very likely to go 10-2 and should get into the field. If they lose, they pick up a third loss and are pretty much sunk. Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU also must win this week to stay in contention.

SMU was the biggest winner of week 9. Not only did they beat Pitt in convincing fashion, but Clemson also lost to Louisville. SMU holds the tiebreaker over Clemson, so they’d have to go 1-2 in their remaining regular season games to miss the ACC title game. It seems safe to say SMU will be playing for a spot in the playoff on conference championship weekend.

Tier 4: Longshots

Clemson falls into the longshot tier after their blowout loss to Louisville. The Tigers do not hold the tiebreaker over Miami or SMU and thus need a ton of help to make the ACC title game. Even if they win out, I am not optimistic on the playoff odds of a 10-2 Clemson team that doesn’t yet have a good win on their schedule.

Last week’s Big 12 chaos means that there are several teams on the fringe of the conference race who I added here. Texas Tech has the cleanest path to the playoff of any team outside the initial committee top 25- if they win out and both Kansas State and Iowa State lose once, they’re in the conference title game.

Group of Five

This remains Boise State’s race to lose. The Broncos were a bit higher than I expected in the initial committee rankings- they clocked in at 12th when I expected to see them around 15th. A 12-1 Boise State team should thus avoid the 12 seed, and if some upsets happen in the ACC or Big 12, might even be able to get the 4 seed and a bye to the second round of the playoff.

If Army and Boise State both win out, I suspect we will see them both in the playoff. However, that would require Army to upset Notre Dame as a 14 point underdog, so we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

College Football Picks Week 11 2024

Last week was a mess, led by Virginia Tech. The Hokies surprisingly were without QB Kyron Drones and star RB Bhayshul Tuten due to injury. They still jumped out to a 21-3 lead only to completely disintegrate late against Syracuse.

The overall story of the season is a bit better than the numbers you see below- I have a lot of futures bets (Indiana to make Playoff, BYU to make playoff, SMU to make ACC title game etc.) that are looking quite good. I haven’t included them in the “preseason bets” tally because they’re not settled yet, but I reckon I have about an extra 20-25 units in expected profit in these sorts of bets.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Week 10: -7.27 units

Preseason Bets: +4.57 units

Total: -0.27 units

UNLV @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 8 PM Central)

Hawai’i is a vastly improved team this year. HC Timmy Chang took over a complete dumpster fire from previous HC Todd Graham and it has taken him some time to right the ship. However, he finally has a roster full of his recruits now and it is paying dividends in back to back upset wins over Nevada and Fresno State. UNLV is a solid top 50 team but travel to the islands is always tough for mainland teams and the market has not caught up to how improved Hawai’i is.

Hawai’i +13 -110 (2 units)

Minnesota @ Rutgers (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Rutgers had a solid season going in September but the bottom has completely fallen out for them. They lost at home to a bad UCLA team and were shellacked by Wisconsin and USC. Minnesota might just be the best team in college football that no one is talking about- they’re up to 33rd in my ratings- and has been hugely improved on offense in the last few weeks.

Minnesota -4.5 -110 (2 units)

Miami @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Miami has survived their fair share of close calls this year, to say the least. Their offense is the best in the sport but their defense is now outside my top 40- no serious national title contender should be getting torn up by the Duke offense. Georgia Tech fell off the national radar after they lost to Syracuse, but their schedule has been brutal and I think they are unlucky to only be 5-4. Georgia Tech is optimistic that QB Haynes King will return from injury in time for this game and I think the Yellow Jackets have a chance at the upset.

Georgia Tech +13 -110 (2 units)

Rice @ Memphis (Friday, 8 PM Central)

Rice fired HC Mike Bloomgren before last week’s game and immediately put up their best performance of the season in a dominating win over Navy. I’ve heard rumblings that Bloomgren had lost the locker room so I’m not shocked to see a sudden improvement. Memphis is falling apart a bit- they’ve underperformed by double digits in each of their last three games- and I think they’re a bit overrated. 

Rice +12.5 -110 (1 unit)

Indiana to make the Playoff -150 (2 units)

Indiana has three games left on their schedule- home games against Michigan and Purdue and a road game at Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 13.5 point favorites against Michigan this weekend, and Purdue might be the worst power conference team in the country. Even if Indiana gets killed by Ohio State (which is probable- my model has Ohio State as the best team in the country by a decent margin), I still think an 11-1 Indiana is a reasonably safe bet to make the playoff. 

College Football Bracketology- Week 9 2024

After a chaotic start to October, chalk has ruled the day in the last two weeks. LSU was the only playoff contender to lose last weekend, and they lost to fellow playoff contender Texas A&M. 

As a result, the bar to make the playoff keeps going up. Earlier in the month, it looked like a guarantee that any 10-2 power conference team would make it, and I was even talking about 9-3 SEC teams sneaking into the field.

I now project there to be 14.3 power conference teams with 2 or fewer losses. Since there’s 11 bids for power conference teams, this means that there will be a few 10-2 teams that miss the field. This is bad news for teams that could have weaker 2 loss resumes (Indiana, SMU, Kansas State, Clemson) as well as longshot hopefuls like Washington State.

Tier 1: Definitely In

The one change from last week is that I’ve added Miami to this tier. The Hurricanes demolished Florida State over the weekend and will be double digit favorites in every remaining game. A 12-0 Miami team will make the playoff even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game- but an 11-1 Miami team that loses the ACC title game would be in a lot of danger. However, as Miami continues to clear obstacles one at a time, it looks unlikely they’ll have to worry about that scenario.

For everyone else in this tier, the path to an at-large bid remains simple. 10-2 will almost certainly get the job done, 9-3 almost certainly won’t. There are some rare exceptions (I could see a path for 9-3 Georgia to get in, and I could see a path for 10-2 Penn State to not get in) but it should generally hold true.

Tier 2: Probably In

Texas A&M and Indiana are the week’s biggest winners in this group- both saw their playoff odds rise by about 10% after solid wins. I was a little surprised to not see Texas A&M’s odds a bit higher. However, they have deceptively tricky road trips against South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a rivalry showdown against Texas. I give them only a 60% shot of making through that stretch 2-1 or better.

Alabama is the only team in this tier with multiple losses. I feel increasingly certain that a 9-3 Alabama team is not going to make the field, so their season will likely come down to a road trip to Baton Rouge.

Tier 3: Other Contenders

I think most people will be surprised to see Clemson in this tier. I certainly disagree with the consensus on this one- I bet Clemson to miss the playoff at +155 this week- but I think the math is solid. Suppose Clemson wins the rest of their regular season games and then loses to Miami in the ACC title game- they’d be 11-2 with only 1 or 2 ranked wins. They’d certainly be behind teams like 10-2 Alabama, 10-2 Texas A&M and 10-2 Penn State. Of course, they might just win the ACC and make this a moot point, but I think their at-large odds are growing slim.

This tier includes a trio of Big 12 teams in BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State. I think the best chance to get multiple Big 12 teams into the field is for either BYU or Iowa State to make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and then lose. I’m hard pressed to imagine a 1 loss Big 12 team missing the field- especially BYU who has an excellent non-conference win at SMU- but the path for a 2 loss Big 12 team to get in is quickly narrowing.

Tier 4: Longshots

This tier is shrinking rapidly. The main reason why is that the Big 12 race has narrowed considerably- earlier in October I still had 8 Big 12 teams on my radar screen, now I only have 5 (and TCU’s path is quite narrow).

In the ACC, Pitt took a nice step forward with their win over Syracuse last week. I still have the Panthers as projected underdogs in three more games, starting with this weekend’s trip to SMU. If they win that game, they’ll move up a tier.

Perhaps I could have included Virginia Tech in this tier- if they win out (they still have to play Clemson, among others), they’re a coin flip to be in the ACC title game.

Group of Five

The big news in the G5 this week was Boise State’s win over UNLV. Boise State is a stone cold lock for the Mountain West title game, and if they win it, they’re in the playoff (so long as Army loses once, which is very likely).

Speaking of Army, I recently added a bet on them to make the playoff at 15/1 odds. If Boise State slips up in the Mountain West title game (which is quite possible- they’ll likely have to travel to UNLV again), the American champion will be next in line for the G5 playoff berth. Army is already 6-0 in American play and is the favorite to win the American at +130.

College Football Picks Week 10 2024

Last week was pretty much a wash for me. I was celebrating when UTSA was up 35-7 on Tulsa at halftime, only for the Roadrunners to execute the collapse of the century to lose 46-45. Outside of that game, Vanderbilt, Bowling Green and Troy all covered, and none of them were ever really in doubt.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Week 9: +0.64 units

Preseason Bets: +4.57 units

Total: +7.00 units

Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Syracuse has been worse than their record all season, and the rent finally came due last week in a blowout loss to Pitt. It wasn’t just Kyle McCord’s five interceptions- Syracuse is still one of the least talented rosters in the P4. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, was a preseason sleeper pick for a reason- the bones of an ACC contender are there. Their season went sideways with some early losses in September but they’ve been excellent in recent weeks and they should roll here.

Virginia Tech -2.5 -110 (4 units)

Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I am 3-0 picking against Appalachian State this season and am going to do so again here. App State is a proud program with a decades long winning tradition, but their roster has fallen into disarray. Old Dominion now looks like the team to beat in the Sun Belt East- they demolished Georgia Southern last week and are headed for the best year in their program history.

Old Dominion +1.5 -110 (3 units)

New Mexico State @ FIU (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)

Conference USA has one group of decent teams and one group of bad teams. These are two of the latter- FIU has already lost to FCS Monmouth this year and New Mexico State is a bottom 10 team in FBS. I don’t think there’s a ton of daylight between these two teams as FIU has already lost to some of the dregs of the league, such as UTEP. New Mexico State should be able to keep this close.

New Mexico State +10 -110 (2 units)

Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

I’ve been a seller of Oklahoma State all season. I wish I had bet against them more- they’ve gone from the top 15 of the AP Poll to 0-5 in Big 12 play in the span of a month. Arizona State has been one of the surprises of the season- they were the consensus pick for last in the Big 12 but are already 2-2 in the league. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful for this game- if he does play, expect this line to move further towards ASU.

Arizona State +1.5 -110 (2 units)

Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Hawaii had the worst roster in the sport when Todd Graham left the program in a smoldering crater. They dominated Nevada in a 34-13 win last week and are comfortably out of the bottom 10 in my ratings for the first time in years. Fresno State has been overrated all year as QB Mikey Keene has regressed significantly.

Hawaii +13 -110 (1 unit)

Ole Miss @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

I’ve been betting against Ole Miss all year, and I regret not picking Oklahoma +20.5 last week. This is a really tricky test for them- Arkansas has likely saved HC Sam Pittman’s job with an impressive 5-3 season. They’re a solid mid-tier SEC team and should not be nearly double digit home underdogs against an underwhelming Ole Miss squad.

Arkansas +8 -110 (1 unit)

Clemson to miss the Playoff +155 (2 units)

As I described in last week’s bracketology, the Playoff bubble is looking much stronger than expected. That’s bad news for Clemson- the Tigers will obviously make the playoff if they win the ACC, but I am growing increasingly skeptical of their at-large chances. They’re yet to beat a single team with a winning record and they’d be at the back of the line among 2 loss teams given their weak schedule. I think Clemson is around a coin flip to make the playoff so this presents some good value.

Army to make the Playoff +1500 (1 unit)

Army is currently undefeated and they essentially have two paths to make the playoff. The first path is to win out- this would require beating Notre Dame (they’ll be about 14 point underdogs) as well as winning every other game, including the AAC title game. Overall, I think this has about a 5% chance of happening.

The second path is to lose to Notre Dame, but win every other game. This would put them at 11-1, and they’d need some help. Namely, they’d need Boise State to lose the Mountain West. A 12-1 Boise State would get the G5 bid over an 11-1 Army, but an 11-1 Army would get the G5 bid over any other possible challenger. I give this scenario perhaps a 10% chance of happening.

This line seems pretty mispriced to me- I think it might be +1500 because people do not realize that the Army/Navy game will not be considered in the playoff selection process, as it happens the week after the playoff bracket is revealed. The Navy game will be a tough one, so Army’s chances of going undefeated are a good bit higher if you don’t include that matchup.

SMU over 2.5 wins in November -150 (6 units)

I cannot believe this line. SMU has 4 games in October, and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this bet.

They’re 7.5 point favorites against Pitt this week, and I think they should be closer to 10 point favorites.

They’ll be around 10.5 point favorites against Boston College and Virginia, and I think they should be around 14 point favorites in each game.

They finish the season with Cal, where they’ll be around 9 point favorites.

This line is not consistent with their remaining schedule, and I’m bullish on SMU anyways. I love this line.

Kansas State over 2.5 wins in November -175 (3 units)

Like SMU, Kansas State has 4 games in November and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this. They’ll be a pick’em against Iowa State but will be double digit favorites in all of their other games. Kansas State is now my highest rated team in the Big 12 and this is another clear bet.

College Football Picks Week 9 2024

I had another solid week last week. It would’ve been nice to get Nevada at +3.5 instead of +3, as I pushed when I could’ve won if I bet the opening line instead. Temple and Auburn both covered easily, and Auburn nearly won outright.

Unfortunately, loyal readers may remember that I bet Oklahoma +6 against Ole Miss back in the preseason. The Sooners and Rebels face off this weekend, and the line is now Ole Miss -20.5.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Week 8: +1.55 units

Preseason Bets: +6.57 units

Total: +8.36 units

UTSA @ Tulsa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I faded Tulsa last week against Temple and I’m going to do it again here. The Golden Hurricane made a disastrous hire when they brought in an awful retread in Kevin Wilson last year. It was made worse by the fact that Tulsa alum GJ Kinne (and now hugely successful Texas State coach) was available. They’ve been a total disaster this year as we saw last week- I’m going to continue fading them until further notice.

UTSA -7.5 -110 (3 units)

Texas @ Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)

Vanderbilt pulled off the upset of the year against Alabama a few weeks ago and now looks to do the same thing against Texas. I’ve been low on the Longhorns all season- they are “only” fifth in my ratings right now when they are in the top three in most other computer models. Vanderbilt has played to the level of their competition all year, looking great against good teams and awful against bad teams. I think they can give Texas a decent game.

Vanderbilt +19.5 -110 (2 units)

Bowling Green @ Toledo (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

This is one of the best rivalry games in the MAC, as these teams are separated by less than 50 miles along I-75. Bowling Green may be 3-4 but I think they might be the best team in the MAC- they played Texas A&M and Penn State very close. They’re also the only team in the MAC that’s as talented as Toledo. Toledo’s offense has been anemic in recent games and I think this is the game where they lose their grip on the MAC.

Bowling Green +3 -110 (1 unit)

Troy @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

Arkansas State was one of my favorite teams in the preseason, but they have been disappointing this season. Luckily for me, they are 4-3, but they have needed smoke and mirrors to get there. Most notably, they were bailed out but the referees in a win over FCS Central Arkansas. Troy has taken a huge step back from the Jon Sumrall era but they still might be more talented than Arkansas State. 

Troy +7.5 -110 (1 unit)

Notre Dame to win the National Championship +4000 (0.5 units)

Everyone stopped paying attention to Notre Dame after their loss to Northern Illinois, but the Fighting Irish have been very solid since then. After a dominating win over Georgia Tech last week, they’re up to third in my ratings. I think they’re more likely than not to make the playoff, and if they get there, only Ohio State and Georgia look like clearly superior teams. At 40/1, I like a longshot bet on the Irish.

College Football Bracketology- Week 8 2024

A lot of people have been talking about this college football season as a chaotic one. While it’s true that there are no dominating teams this year, week 8 did not bring chaos. In fact, ranked teams went a perfect 14-0 against unranked teams. This is bad news for a lot of teams on the fringes of the playoff hunt- teams like Ole Miss and SMU are running out of time.

Tier 1: Definitely In

Georgia joins this tier after their win at Texas. UGA would probably have to lose to both Ole Miss and Tennessee to miss the playoff, although the upcoming Cocktail Party against Florida is looking a bit trickier than expected as well. Texas stays strong at 88% to make the playoff despite the loss- they would have to lose two more games to be in any danger of missing the playoffs and only face one more top 20 opponent (a trip to Texas A&M).

Tier 2: Probably In

Miami and Tennessee were the week’s two big winners in this group. Miami cleared their biggest remaining hurdle with a road win over Louisville and is now 50/50 to go 12-0. Tennessee, meanwhile, still has to go to Georgia but other than that does not leave the state for the rest of the season. As long as they take care of business against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, they should be in the field.

LSU hosts Texas A&M this weekend. The winner will be the only team undefeated in SEC conference play and will likely have around a 75% chance of making the playoff. The loser will likely need to win out to make the field.

Tier 3: Other Contenders

The model says that Alabama is exactly a coin flip to make the playoff, which feels about right. With the playoff bubble looking stronger, I think that a 9-3 Alabama team probably will not make the field. They’d have a chance, but I’d rather not be a three loss Crimson Tide team. The good news for them is that outside of a trip to Baton Rouge, they’ll be double digit favorites in every other game.

I’ve been high on Indiana’s playoff chances all season, and they played their best game of the season in a 56-7 demolition of Nebraska. However, Indiana could be hurt by the strong bubble- if other teams in this tier keep winning, a 10-2 Hoosiers squad probably would not make the cut. Keep in mind that Indiana still has to travel to Ohio State. QB Kurtis Rourke is out for multiple weeks which doesn’t help matters.

The Big 12 is going to need their trio of Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State to keep winning if they want multiple teams in the field. My model thinks Kansas State is the best team of the three, but they also are the only one with a loss. Unless chaos erupts in the SEC, it’ll be hard for a two-loss Big 12 team to get into the field. My personal guess is that BYU slips up down the stretch and Iowa State and Kansas State play for the conference title and both sneak into the field.

Tier 4: Longshots

SMU and Missouri are the only teams here with real at-large chances. Both teams won this week but saw their playoff odds hold steady as teams in front of them all won as well.

Everyone else in this tier is either an oddball case (Washington State) or a team looking to get an automatic bid by winning their conference. If anyone in this group is going to make a run, I’d put my money on a Colorado team that has improved significantly and should be favored in every remaining game.

Group of Five

The biggest development in the G5 has been Army and Navy’s continued winning streaks. Both teams are not just winning- they are covering nearly every week and rocketing up my ratings. Both teams still have to play Notre Dame, but a 12-1 Army or Navy with a loss to Notre Dame could still get in the playoff, especially if Boise State slips up.

Boise State travels to UNLV on Friday night in what looks to be the G5 game of the year. Ashton Jeanty and Boise have snagged all the headlines this year, but UNLV might have their best team in school history and has their own star in WR Ricky White. Every team in this section other than Boise is hoping for the Broncos to slip up.

This Week’s Projection

1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
4 Iowa State

5 Oregon vs. 12 Boise State
6 Texas vs. 11 Kansas State
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU

Once again I’ve decided to have some fun with my projection as opposed to just slotting in the most likely team into each spot. I’m assuming here that Georgia wins out and wins the SEC, while Kansas State sneaks into the field over teams like Alabama and Indiana after losing the Big 12 title game.

College Football Picks Week 8 2024

Last week was a bit unfortunate as I bet on two big underdogs who got blown out. The good news is that I had plenty of success elsewhere- my huge preseason bets against Ole Miss took a big step forward when they lost to LSU, and my preseason bets against Utah look phenomenal after their loss to Arizona State.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Week 7: -3.00 units

Preseason Bets: +5.27 units

Total: +5.51 units

Tulsa @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)

A few weeks ago we were talking about Temple as one of the worst teams in FBS. Since then they beat Utah State and nearly beat UConn, and are now outside of my bottom 10. Instead, it’s Tulsa that looks like one of the worst teams in FBS. The Golden Hurricane might just have the worst defense in FBS and have been smoked by Army and North Texas in back to back weeks. Tulsa is one of the least talented teams in FBS and I love fading them here.

Temple -1.5 -110 (3 units)

Hawai’i @ Washington State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

When Timmy Chang took over at Hawai’i he inherited possibly the worst situation in FBS. Now the Rainbow Warriors are showing some signs of life- last week’s loss to league power Boise State was much closer than the 28-7 score indicates and Chang’s squad hung with UCLA earlier in the season. Hawai’i is better than their 1-4 record and Washington State is worse than their 5-1 record.

Hawai’i +19.5 -110 (3 units)

Auburn @ Missouri (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Auburn is the best 2-4 team college football has seen in a few years. They’ve had awful turnover luck- they would have beaten Oklahoma if Payton Thorne did not throw a heinous interception and they outplayed both Arkansas and Cal in those losses. I’ve been down on Missouri all season and they were absolutely exposed in a blowout loss to Texas A&M- they have no running game and no offense to speak of outside of Luther Burden. 

Auburn +7.5 -110 (2 units)

Fresno State @ Nevada (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)

Nevada upset Oregon State last week- this was their third win of the season and it meant that I cashed my Nevada over 2.5 wins ticket from the preseason. I also have a Fresno State under 8 wins ticket that is looking quite good as the Bulldogs are now 3-3. I’ll continue with what’s been working here- Fresno QB Mikey Keene has regressed this year while Nevada has a more talented roster than you’d think with several P5 transfers.

Nevada +3 -110 (1 unit)

Missouri under 9.5 wins -175 (5 units)

I’ve been a seller of Missouri all season but now is the time to take my stand. The Tigers need to lose two more games for this bet to hit. They’ll be huge underdogs at Alabama, and favorites of around a touchdown or less against Auburn, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arkansas. This line makes absolutely no sense to me, especially when you consider that Missouri is +340 to make the playoff and they have very little chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I absolutely love this bet.

BYU to make the Playoff +450 (1 unit)

BYU is +500 to win the Big 12 and +450 to make the playoff. I think that +500 to win the Big 12 is pretty fair, but the latter line implies they have almost no chance to get an at-large bid. I don’t agree with that- a BYU team that goes 12-0 and then loses the Big 12 title game will obviously make the field and a BYU team that goes 11-1 and then loses the Big 12 title game could get in. They already have good wins over fellow playoff contenders Kansas State and SMU, which is more than most potential at-large candidates can say at this point in the season. I think this is worth a flier.

College Football Bracketology- Week 7 2024

I’ve been publishing weekly bracketology updates for the whole season, but starting this week I will be devoting a whole weekly post to previewing the playoff field. Over the last few weeks I’ve been building a model to simulate the selection process for the 12 team playoff. Much like college basketball bracketology, the goal of this is to predict what the committee will do, not what I think they should do. Each week I’ll break down the resume of all of the main contenders and also give my projections as to the most likely field.

Tier 1: Definitely In

These are the 4 top ranked teams in the AP poll, and for good reason. Texas, Oregon and Penn State would have to go 3-3 down the stretch to be in danger of missing the playoff. Penn State is in marginally more danger than the other two, given that they’re the only one of the group outside of the top 5 in my ratings and they have some tricky road trips on the schedule. 

Ohio State remains in a good position despite their loss this week. Their trip to State College in early November is likely to determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes lose two more regular season games, they’d probably miss the field, but that’s unlikely for what’s still the #1 team in my power ratings.

Tier 2: Probably In

One general rule of thumb to know this year is that 10-2 Big Ten and SEC teams are definitely going to make the field, while 9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams probably won’t. 9-3 Georgia would have the best chance of any potential 9-3 team, thanks to their win over Clemson. Assuming they win their other games (Florida, UMass, Georgia Tech), the Dawgs will be feeling good if they go 2-1 against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee and shaky if they go 1-2.

The winner of this week’s Alabama/Tennessee game will move into the “definitely in” tier. The loser will be a bit less than 50/50 to make the field. I’d rather be the Tide than the Vols, both because they’re a better team and because their big November road trip (LSU) is easier than Tennessee’s (Georgia).

Miami and Clemson are both rooting for the other to keep winning. I think that a potential 11-2 loser of a Miami/Clemson ACC title game is likely to be right on the cutline for the last spot in the field. The best win either team has is probably Miami’s win over Virginia Tech, which is not saying much at this point in the season.

Notre Dame will easily be in the field at 11-1 and is a huge question mark at 10-2. Their schedule is riddled with games that are trickier than you’d think, such as road trips to Georgia Tech and USC.

Iowa State has been my projected Big 12 champion all season and they continue to impress. They’ll be at least touchdown favorites in their next four games. I think that the Big 12 has enough depth that a 10-2 Iowa State team has a shot at the playoff, but they’d be behind teams like Notre Dame and Clemson in the pecking order.

Tier 3: Other Contenders

LSU and Texas A&M continue to see their odds tick up. They are the two SEC teams other than Texas who are yet to lose a conference game, as they took their losses on opening weekend in non conference action. One possible interesting scenario to monitor- it’s possible that either team ends up 10-2 and 7-1 in SEC play. If they then lose the conference title game to finish 10-3, it’ll be curious to see if the committee punishes them for that.

Ole Miss has by far the best odds of any 2 loss team. There’s a few reasons for this- first, they’re good (they’re ninth in my ratings, even after the LSU loss), second, their remaining schedule is easy (other than Georgia, they’ll be touchdown favorites in every game). I give them around a 25% chance of winning out and some chance of making it in at 9-3.

Indiana continues to boost their playoff odds. They’re undefeated and have one game they’re huge underdogs in (at Ohio State) and several they’re mild favorites in (Nebraska, Michigan, Washington). If they can take care of business and win all of those they’ll be in the field at 11-1.

BYU and Kansas State look like the clear second and third contenders in the Big 12 behind Iowa State. BYU is still outside the top 25 of my ratings but they already have wins over Kansas State and SMU and a light November schedule. Kansas State saw their odds tick up a good bit after a road win at Colorado.

SMU might be the most interesting team in the whole playoff picture. They project to be 7 to 14 point favorites in all 6 remaining games, and clearly will make the field at 11-1. They also could feasibly not make the ACC title game in that scenario despite being undefeated in conference play as they play neither Miami nor Clemson.

Tier 4: Longshots

We have a whole bevy of Big 12 teams in this tier. None of them have compelling at-large cases, but all of them could factor into the crowded Big 12 title picture. If I had to pick one team to emerge from the pack, it would probably be Colorado, given their clear upside and the fact that they don’t have to play any of the top 3 teams in the league.

Louisville still controls their playoff destiny as they face both Miami and Clemson in the coming weeks, and thus control their own path to the ACC title game. Pitt is undefeated but has done so in the most confounding way possible and has three games left they’ll be significant underdogs in.

Missouri and Oklahoma both have longshot chances at the playoff. Missouri has the weakest schedule in the SEC and thus can only afford one more loss to have a chance at the playoff. Oklahoma has such a brutal schedule that if they can somehow find their way to 9-3, they will probably make it in.

Group of Five

Boise State remains the clear leader here. The Broncos have to travel to UNLV in two weeks and likely will have to do so again for the conference title game. Every bracket projection has the Broncos as the 12 seed, but they’re already 15th in the polls and if they win out I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hosting a first round game. If UNLV knocks off Boise in the Mountain West title game they’ll have a great shot at the playoff.

Elsewhere, Tulane, Army and Navy lead an interesting American race. An undefeated Army or Navy would surely leapfrog Boise State, as both teams still get to play Notre Dame. Tulane is an interesting contender as well, they are the only top 30 team in the G5 outside of Boise State.

One outlier possibility to keep an eye on- I wouldn’t sleep on the chance that 2 G5 teams could get into the field. Suppose, for example, that a 10-3 West Virginia or Texas Tech team wins the Big 12 while we have both a 12-1 Boise State and an 11-1 Navy team. If something wacky happens in the Big 12 there’s a real chance their conference champion finishes behind 2 G5 teams.

This Week’s Projection

1 Texas

2 Oregon

3 Miami

4 Iowa State

5 Penn State vs. 12 Boise State

6 Georgia vs. 11 Indiana 

7 Ohio State vs. 10 Tennessee

8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama

This projection is still mostly an exercise in guesswork. I decided to spice things up and not just pick the most likely scenario everywhere- for example I have decided to put Indiana in the field over say, Clemson. At this point in the season, I do find it more useful to look at things from a probabilistic perspective as I did at the top of the post as opposed to focusing on the single most likely scenario, but it’s still a fun exercise.

College Football Picks Week 7 2024

Week 6 was my best week of the season thus far. My two biggest bets both covered by multiple touchdowns, Arkansas won outright as a 14 point underdog and Navy demolished Air Force. My futures bets also had a great week as I got important wins from both Florida and Arkansas State.

Unfortunately I have a smaller slate of bets this week, no picks look as appetizing to me as the 3 and 4 unit plays I’ve had the last two weeks. It’s important to be able to pick your spots during the season and be comfortable having weeks where you have fewer bets every now and again.

Week 1: -0.36 units

Week 2: -0.33 units

Week 3: -5.18 units

Week 4: -4.27 units

Week 5: +5.28 units

Week 6: +8.10 units

Preseason Bets: +4.46 units

Total: +7.70 units

New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (Wednesday, 6:30 PM Central)

This year’s New Mexico State is much worse than the 2023 version that made it to the CUSA title game. Still, they have shown the faintest signs of life this year, giving Liberty a tough test in a one possession loss. Jacksonville State is just inside the top 100 in my ratings and should not be a three touchdown favorite against a team with any sort of pulse.

New Mexico State +20.5 -110 (2 units)

Missouri @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Missouri has made some strange scheduling decisions in recent years including a road trip to Wyoming. This one takes the cake though- no power conference team in their right mind would schedule a trip to UMass. Much like the New Mexico State/Jacksonville State game, this game is a mismatch but the spread is several points too high. UMass is no longer one of the bottom three teams in FBS and Missouri is out of my top 25 after a disastrous performance against Texas A&M. I like a small play on UMass here.

UMass +28.5 -110 (1 unit)

SMU to make the ACC Title Game +190 (2 units)

I’m adding a futures bet on SMU as well this week. The ACC title race will come down to Miami, Clemson and SMU- all three are undefeated in conference play and strangely, none of them play each other. SMU has the easiest conference schedule of the three, which is both a blessing and a curse. It means that they stand a good chance at running the table (I give them a 30% chance of winning out) but it also means they will lose a strength of schedule tiebreaker against Miami and Clemson. Regardless, Miami or Clemson will probably slip up somewhere and SMU has rocketed up to 14th in my ratings, so I think there’s some decent value here.

Oklahoma to make the Playoff +1500 (0.5 units)

Oklahoma is probably the only team other than Georgia that is more likely than not to make the playoff at 9-3. The Sooners have a brutal schedule, as their most likely path to 9-3 would have wins over Alabama, LSU and Tulane and quality losses to Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee.

The most likely scenario is that they get destroyed by Texas this weekend and nothing happens with this bet. However, I think that if they win, they’ll be more likely than not to make the playoff and that makes this a nice longshot flier.

San Jose State to make the playoff +25000 (0.1 units)

If you’re going to take a long shot to make the playoff, I like SJSU at 250/1. They have only one loss so far this season, on the road against a good Washington State team. They are currently 16/1 to win the Mountain West which is pretty fair. If they win the Mountain West, they’ll be in the mix to make the playoff- they’d need a team with a few losses to win the American, and also some stumbles from James Madison and Liberty. I think that they have around a one in six shot of making the playoff as the Mountain West champs which means there’s some value at 250/1.

College Football Ratings- Week 6 2024

This Saturday was one of those special days of college football that we’ll remember for a while. I have been a big supporter of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia for a long time- loyal readers will remember my big bet on New Mexico State last year when he was the Aggies’ quarterback. That was my best bet of 2023 by a mile, and I was very happy to see him lead Vanderbilt to the upset this Saturday.

Bracketology

I’ve added projected end of season records to my bracketology this week. The goal of this is to provide a realistic simulation of the rest of the season according to my model. For example, even though Ohio State will be favored in every remaining game, they’re only small favorites against Oregon and Penn State and are a good bit more likely to go 12-1 than 13-0.

1 Ohio State (12-1)

2 Texas (11-2)

3 Miami (12-1)

4 Iowa State (11-2)

I have a preseason ticket on Iowa State to make the Big 12 title game at +450. It’s now +135, a good bit above every other Big 12 team. I’ve been projecting the Cyclones as my Big 12 champion in every bracketology so far this season and still view them as the best team in the league.

12 Boise State (12-1) @ 5 Oregon (11-2)

11 Texas A&M (9-3) @ 6 Alabama (10-3) 

10 Georgia (9-3) @ 7 Penn State (10-2) 

9 Notre Dame (10-2) @ 8 Clemson (11-2)

Alabama would probably have to go 8-4 to miss the playoff. In this projection I assume they go 10-2 and then lose to Texas in the SEC title game, but a 9-3 ‘Bama with wins at LSU and vs. Georgia would also be quite likely to get in.

Texas A&M was the biggest beneficiary of this weekend’s chaos. Since Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia all have one loss, the Aggies are now +130 to make the SEC title game and I find it hard to believe that the SEC title game loser gets left out. 

I think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team is pretty likely to make it. I think that any 10-2 power conference team will make the field, with the possible exception of weaker Big 12/ACC resumes. It’s hard to find two more losses on the Irish’s schedule.

In the Hunt:

Ole Miss (9-3)

SMU (10-2)

Indiana (9-3)

Kansas State (10-3)

Tennessee (8-4)

LSU (8-4)

I think that SMU could present an interesting case to the committee. If the Mustangs go 10-2 and miss the ACC title game (which is the most likely outcome in my model), their only top 30 win would be at Louisville. They’re likely to stack up a decent number of wins against 7-5 type teams (TCU, Duke, Boston College, Cal etc.), which the committee traditionally hasn’t valued very much.

I got Indiana to make the playoff at +3000 a few weeks ago. I also had the Hoosiers over 5.5 wins in the preseason. I was bullish on Indiana this year but I will admit that I did not expect to cash that ticket in the first week in October.

Top 25

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Texas

6. Notre Dame

7. Miami

8. Penn State

9. Ole Miss

10. Texas A&M

11. Clemson

12. LSU

13. Iowa State

14. SMU

15. Tennessee

16. USC

17. Louisville

18. Kansas State

19. Michigan

20. Virginia Tech

21. Washington

22. Auburn

23. Arkansas

24. Indiana

25. Kentucky